Original: Jinqiao think tank source: wechat official account: Wang Cheng said that life has been authorized
How time flies! In a twinkling of an eye, the outbreak of the Ukrainian war will be 100 days. On the Dragon Boat Festival, the greeting we all meet is the well-being of the Dragon Boat Festival. Our love for peace is rooted in the genes of culture. But Westerners can not understand such a great civilization, so they always rush from one battlefield to another.
Cities have been turned into ruins, living lives have been swallowed up by the war, and countless refugees have poured into Europe. The land of Ukraine is performing the ancient tragedy of mountains and rivers being broken and the country being destroyed. The scale of this war is not very large, but its impact is enormous. Today, we will take advantage of the 100 days of the outbreak of the Ukrainian war to take stock of the impact of this war.
1? The Ukrainian war opened the “Warring States era”
The Ukrainian war is different from all other wars after World War II. All other wars after World War II are aimed at strengthening the advantages of the West and establishing the post-war order of Yalta system. In essence, the Western powers are still dividing the sphere of influence and competing for world hegemony.
But the Ukrainian war is not like this. It is a major reshuffle of the international order. The Ukrainian war was the first war aimed at ending American hegemony, which meant ending the post World War II international order and reconstructing the new order of human society. This means that the peace based on Yalta system after World War II has come to an end, and mankind will enter a new era of war.
In this new Warring States era, Ukraine is likely to become the first country to be destroyed, whether it is annexed by Russia or divided up by Russia and Poland. After the war, it is very unlikely that Ukraine will continue to exist as a sovereign and independent country.
Once the magic box of war is opened, it will not be closed easily. This will not be transferred by our will. Before the end of American hegemony and the re establishment of a new international order, the war will not stop. To be exact, before the complete transfer of world leadership from the United States to China, wars will be fought one after another until the old world is defeated and the new world is established.
2? Ending the United States’ alliance with Russia to control China and laying the foundation for the great defeat of the United States
Putin said that the goal of the second stage of the Ukrainian war is to end US hegemony. Many Chinese people do not take it seriously, which is wrong. It is this goal that further enables China and Russia to work closely together to form an unbreakable friendship, because fundamentally speaking, ending American hegemony is China’s natural mission!
In other words, Putin said what we wanted to say but did not say, and did what we wanted to do but did not do! Trump’s most vicious move in the past four years is not a trade war with China. In fact, trump has launched a trade war against almost all major countries.
It is his failure to unite Russia to control China, which is the fatal “kill” to China. However, due to the obstruction of the Democratic Party, it has been deeply involved in the investigation of “access to Russia”, and even was impeached. At that time, we were baffled. Now the Ukrainian war has given us the answer. The Democratic Party has bet too much in Ukraine, so trump and Putin are not allowed to have a chat.
The outbreak of the Ukrainian war is really a great blessing for us Chinese people. God bless China and the country has arrived! Since ancient times, China’s greatest fear has been the simultaneous arrival of aggression from the sea and from the inland nomads.
And most of the time, it is the inland threat that is the fatal problem. China has been invaded by nomads into the Central Plains many times in history, and even the two unified dynasties of yuan and Qing were established by nomads. But no pirate nation has ever conquered China, which is the fundamental reason why the leaders wanted to unite the United States to control the Soviet Union in their later years.
Chairman Mao knows so much about history that he has read 24 histories 17 times, more than all historians. In history, Chairman Mao saw clearly the enmity and resentment between the Central Plains dynasties and the nomads, and their rise and fall.
Since the cold war, the old powers have fallen one after another. China, the United States and the Soviet Union (Russia) have become the protagonists of the new era. Any combination of the two is a nightmare for the third. The outbreak of the Ukrainian war was that the United States tried every means to push Russia to China, completely cut off the possibility of Russia falling to the west, and cut off the possibility of the United States’ alliance with Russia to control China. This will surely lay a great defeat for the United States, and God can not save the United States.
The United States is bound to go into the garbage heap of history like the Soviet Union. Since its establishment, the United States has rarely made strategic mistakes. Planning the Ukrainian war is the biggest strategic mistake of the United States, and it is also a fatal strategic mistake.
From the perspective of this grand strategy, China is the biggest winner of the Ukrainian war! We want to support Russia, not because of anything else, but because we have a common goal, that is, to end American hegemony. Before the end of American hegemony, we are comrades and comrades in arms with Russia!
3? Sharp opposition between the West and non West
The United States has never dared to directly participate in the war, which further proves the weakness of the United States. After the collapse of Afghanistan last year, the United States left a weak figure to the world. The lonely superpower is about to die!
After the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, the United States and its Western allies imposed more than 5000 sanctions on Russia, including the sanctions on Russian cats and trees, which made people all over the world see a big joke. The so-called universal values advocated by the west, such as science without borders, art without borders, sports without borders, etc., were all bankrupt!
The United States and the West also attempted to kidnap other countries to sanction Russia, but suffered a shameful failure. The Ukrainian war completely tore off the disguise of the west, making the conflicts between the western countries that rule and oppress the world and the non western countries that are ruled and oppressed unprecedented confrontation and sharpness!
The people of the third world have finally seen clearly that the international community that the United States and the West have been talking about is actually just the developed countries that have accounted for less than 20% of the world’s population for more than 30 years. All of them add up to only 1.1 billion, or even 300 million less than China’s population. If the United States and the West are regarded as the international community, China is a larger international community.
We see that almost all regional powers, including India, Pakistan, Brazil, Argentina, Iran, Turkey, South Africa and Mexico, have chosen to stand on the side of Russia and draw a clear line with the United States.
The Ukrainian war has completely broken the Western mirror. Russia and China have never had such friends all over the world, and the United States and the West have never been so isolated. Now people all over the world are waiting for China to come to an end, holding high the banner of righteousness and completely burying American hegemony.
4? The revival of fascism in Japan and Germany
The Ukrainian war made Japan and Germany see the hope of breaking away from the Yalta system, and both began to be ready to rearm and revive fascism. However, the times have changed, and the old tickets of German and Japanese fascists are doomed not to board the new passenger ships!
The core of the post-war international order is the suppression of Japanese and German fascists, which is also the primary content of the Yalta system. Although the United States began to support Germany and Japan to counter the Soviet Union during the cold war, the United States has always kept the dog chain very tight militarily.
This Ukrainian war exposed the weakness of the United States. Germany and Japan took the opportunity to rearm and revive fascism. Before the war, Germany deliberately provided only 5000 helmets to Ukraine. After being ridiculed by Zelian drivers and beaten by the United States, Germany suddenly became very powerful. Premier Schultz proposed to allocate 100billion euros and increase the national defense expenditure to more than 2%.
Germany’s GDP is more than $400 billion, and its defense spending has increased to 2%, that is, more than $80 billion, while Russia has only more than $60 billion and India has only more than $70 billion. In this way, Germany’s military spending will reach the third place in the world, second only to China and the United States. You know, there are only 80million people in Germany.
On May 31, German Chancellor Schultz publicly claimed that Germany was building NATO’s largest military force in Europe. This means that Germany is finally determined to get rid of the post-war constraints, move towards a military power, completely tear off its disguise, and do not shy away from Britain and France. This statement is equivalent to slapping France and Britain in the face!
Japan, too, has resorted to the Japan US alliance to help defend Taiwan, deal with China, and step up its military expansion to prepare for war. In fact, Japan has been secretly developing its military strength for many years. According to the peace constitution, Japan is not allowed to retain its army. However, the fact is that Japan has the military strength of western developed countries, second only to the United States. The military strength of the Japanese Self Defense Force has surpassed not only Britain, France, but also Germany, except that it has no nuclear weapons.
The revival of Japanese and German fascists has added new variables to the pattern of the 21st century. In early May, German Chancellor Schultz visited Japan and plotted with Japanese Prime Minister Yasuda. You should know that in the past, the German Chancellor visited China first in his Asian trips. This time, he went straight to Japan. What’s the matter? It’s Sima Zhao’s heart. Everyone knows it.
5? Europe is moving towards division and decline
In the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, besides Ukraine, the EU was the most seriously injured. In fact, this war looks more like Russia and the United States are jointly bleeding the EU. The years in Europe will never come back. Inflation and war will accompany Europe from now on.
Europe will be torn apart because of the Ukrainian war, the European economy will collapse because of the Ukrainian war, and the EU will disintegrate like the former Soviet Union and fall from the camp of developed countries.
6? Bring famine to the world
Another worldwide impact of the Ukrainian war was that it brought famine to the world. Ukraine is the granary of Europe. Because of the war, the granary of Ukraine has been completely destroyed. This year, let alone exporting tens of millions of tons of grain as in previous years, it would be better if there were no famine.
Russia and Ukraine are both major grain exporters in the world, and their grain exports account for one third of the world’s grain exports. The granary of Ukraine has been destroyed, but Russia has little impact. However, due to sanctions, Russia’s food cannot be circulated through the international monetary system, which will also bring great trouble.
In addition, the supply chain was broken due to the sanctions against Russia, and the energy crisis exacerbated the food crisis. Due to the sharp rise of Russian natural gas, European fertilizer plants were shut down early. This year, European food production is bound to be greatly reduced, and the failure to sell Russian fertilizer will also lead to the reduction of food production in many countries.
The FAO says 300million people worldwide will face famine this year. I think this prediction is too optimistic. I’m afraid it doesn’t include Africans. From the most pessimistic point of view, the number of people affected by famine in the world may reach 1billion this year! This is a horrible number!
As for the question of how long the war will last and who will be the winner, which we are most concerned about, I will not say much more. I will have the opportunity to write a special article in the future. Since Russia has said that the goal of the second stage of the Ukrainian war is to end American hegemony, it is impossible for the war to end soon. It is possible to fight for three to five years. The longer the fight, the more beneficial it will be to Russia. After only three months of fighting, Russia has already made a lot of money. It is really a big gun that makes a million liang of gold!