Source: a bad potato (ID: iamhtd)
On September 6, the Ukrainian side launched an attack, and Russia lost baraklia, ikum and kupyansk one after another;
In just a few days, the Russian army lost thousands of square kilometers of front, and the logistics supply line was directly threatened by the Ukrainian army. Up to now, it has not organized an effective counter offensive
Only last night, the bombing of parts of Ukraine began. According to relevant information, six Ukrainian states have entered a certain scale of power outage.
Kadyrov of Chechnya publicly criticized the deployment of the Russian army on social media, saying that the corresponding tactical strategy must be changed.
Many people say that Russia’s difficulties today are due to its insufficient military strength, inability to organize effective attacks, and Ukraine’s strategic depth is too deep.
In fact, insufficient military strength has never been a major problem. Russia has a population of 140 million and a total active military strength of 1.01 million, accounting for 0.7%. This proportion is not only not low, but also very high.
Otherwise, according to this ratio, we all need 10.1 million people’s Liberation Army. In fact, China’s active military strength is 2.18 million, which is 0.15%, far lower than Russia’s;
The United States has a population of 340 million, and its active military strength is 1.43 million, accounting for 0.4%;
France has a population of 67 million, with 380000 troops in active service, accounting for 0.5%;
……
Therefore, it is obviously wrong to say that Russia is in a dilemma because of insufficient military strength.
It can be said that China’s military strength ratio is almost the lowest in the world, but no one dares to challenge the people’s Liberation Army, because it can be seen from our military’s military thinking that we have never considered fighting a saw saw or positional war.
They will not fight street battles and exchange with the enemy, otherwise the best result will be a disastrous victory.
In terms of individual equipment, our army obviously has a gap with the US Army. A set of equipment for US soldiers is about 200000 US dollars. It covers almost everything from envg helmet type night vision goggles to M-25 portable fuel cells. We haven’t done this, but we don’t feel uneasy about it.
Because we never thought of fighting a war of attrition with any country’s army on the battlefield, but in the past 30 years, we have madly added hypersonic missiles, shield ships, UAVs, precision guidance, self-propelled howitzers and information systems.
Because fighting a war of attrition and exchange on the battlefield is almost meaningless from a military point of view.
If the Russian army wants to defeat the Ukrainian army on the battlefield through the consumption of the army, especially in cities like Odessa, where the underground defense channels are crisscrossed, it is almost impossible without more than 400000 army troops.
Therefore, for the Russian army, there are two relatively large possibilities to win.
The first is to expand the source of troops and win a central city like Kiev at a heavy price.
If this is done, the morale of the Ukrainian army will collapse. Once the morale collapses, Zelensky will not be able to turn the tables.
The second is to continue to attack, directly hit the morale of Ukraine and cut off the confidence of the West in continuing to provide assistance.
On the premise that the West controls public opinion, it should be consumed on the Ukrainian battlefield and always be suppressed.
Because it’s the same saying that the common people will always stand on the side of the winner. If this situation can be maintained, the US western group will think that Ukraine is a bottomless pit, and Zelensky is a dour who can’t afford it. No matter how much military assistance he gives, it will be meaningless.
On the premise that there is no return on investment in Zelensky, Europe will eventually have doubts about assisting Ukraine. Once there are more and more cases such as the demonstration of 70000 people in the Czech Republic, Europeans will become more and more dismissive of political correctness, and the assistance of the US western group to Ukraine will be less and less. Zelensky himself does not want to continue, and Ukraine will eventually collapse.
But both options are difficult for Russia.
In particular, this campaign is very important to Zelensky, because once it fails, the Republican Party will gain power in the US midterm elections. On the premise that there is no satisfactory answer for a long time, Biden will hardly speak for Ukraine, and the Republican Party will probably abandon Zelensky and try to set fire to China.
But now that Russia has defeated Kharkov, Biden has reasons to continue to support him.
At least it proves that the money he invested is not wasted
Positional warfare is inherently difficult, as can be seen from the American wars in the past 40 years.
Or, just as in the case of Belgrade, without regard to humanitarian disasters, they dispatched 32000 aircraft and dropped 13000 tons of bombs, without losing money, and carried out wanton bombing for 78 days.
Once the city’s infrastructure is completely damaged, once the water, electricity, information, health and medical systems collapse, they will become reinforced concrete graves. The more the population, the easier it is to collapse
However, Russia has not done so. First, Russia’s precision guided missiles are seriously insufficient. After bombing for a few days, the air and space forces began to use iron bombs, which greatly reduced the hitting efficiency and effect.
Second, at present, the United States controls public opinion, and Russia does not dare to do so mercilessly. In other words, the United States has caused 8000 civilian casualties and 1 million refugees in Belgrade. Under the dark magic of western public opinion, the United States is to “maintain world peace.” in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, 300 civilians were killed and injured in the Bucha massacre. It is still unclear who did it. Putin has become an “anti human executioner” in the western world.
Similarly, if the United States had not cut off the power and communication of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia during the bombing of Belgrade and broadcast the crimes of the United States live around the world, the United States would not have been able to fight. It is a pity that it is the United States, not the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, that controls public opinion.
Another plan is that the US military attacked Baghdad, bought off high-level Iraqi officers, and plotted against the guard of the Republic of Iraq.
In fact, Russia also wanted to adopt this scheme. Before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it spent billions of dollars to instigate rebellion against Ukraine. As a result, it was embezzled by the head of the Russian federal security service, beseida. It also fooled Putin that he had completed his task. As a result, Russia thought that Kiev could be taken over in three days, and even sent troops to take over Ukrainian cities directly. Finally, it directed a big oolong.
In the final analysis, Russia is not dominant in science, technology, information and economy. It even went to Iran to buy UAVs, but the UAVs it bought have not been carefully studied how to use them.
In the above three aspects, the US western group has an overwhelming advantage over Russia, which is mainly used in Ukraine.
In 2022, Russia did make money in energy, but it is very difficult to make tens of billions of dollars to play an effect on the battlefield immediately.
In the final analysis, Russia has no money.
According to the data released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia’s military expenditure in 2021 was US $65.9 billion, far less than 1 / 10 of that of the United States and less than US $68.4 billion of the United Kingdom, almost the same level as that of Germany and France.
This military expenditure can only be said to be barely up to its present performance.
However, this military expenditure can not be increased, because Russia’s total GDP is so large, and now accounts for about 4% of GDP, which is already quite high.
Therefore, in fact, since last month, the Russian Ukrainian war has been basically at a standstill, because it is very difficult for Russia to take over the core cities of Ukraine, such as important towns like Odessa, without adding hundreds of thousands of troops, it is almost impossible to do it in more than three months.
Well, the only possible way is to cut off NATO’s assistance to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s resistance will and the EU’s will to help Ukraine complement each other. Originally, after Russia cut off Beixi No. 1, by the autumn after October, with the arrival of winter and the energy crisis, European people will be increasingly dissatisfied with the government’s support for Ukraine and the American cutting of leeks, and demonstrations and protests will take place one after another.
Under such a background, if Zelensky can’t show the “results” that can be explained, or if he stays stuck for a long time, the government and media of the western group in the United States dare not pledge to help Ukraine
But now, Russia has directly lost thousands of square kilometers of land, which is a shot in the arm for the American and western groups, and they can steal the concept and use this victory to cajole Europe into continuing to harvest leeks
This debacle also shows that Russia is almost at an absolute disadvantage in the battlefield intelligence system. It believes that Ukraine’s focus of attack is on Kherson, and that it was ultimately fooled and “blinded” by NATO’s “discerning people.” this is the main reason why it quickly lost its front.
In a few days, Russia has not organized an effective counter offensive, which also shows that there are obvious problems in the morale of the Russian army.
Of course, many people think that Putin is playing a big game, but no matter how he plays this game, the recent days will have a profound impact on the future.
First of all, even if Russia counterattacks the Kharkov region in the future, there will be huge problems.
Because according to Russia’s plan, after winning a region, a pro Russian government will be organized in the region, and then a referendum will be held. But this time, no matter what reason is found, eastern Ukraine will see that “the positions taken by Russia in three months have been returned by Ukraine in three days.” this will seriously affect the confidence of Ukraine’s Pro Russian forces and the confidence of the military and people in Luton.
Or, if Russia later takes over the ikum region and wants to organize a pro Russian government, unless it gives them strong confidence, I’m afraid no one will buy it, because “I’m here to help you now. If you run away in two days, Ukraine will settle with me. Do you care if I live or die?”
In addition, the war will affect the hearts and minds of the people in Europe and Ukraine.
The so-called popular support in Europe does not matter whether the Ukrainian war is just or not, but whether it is strong or not. Whoever is strong, who can win, and who represents justice.
Just like in the early days of the war, if Russia succeeded in plotting against Ukraine, the entire European region would seriously doubt the political correctness of the so-called common values, and more and more people would disagree with the United States.
But now Ukraine’s counterattack, combined with the western media’s deception, will give ordinary people in Europe an illusion that they are valuable to be cut by the United States, which is to safeguard their so-called values. This kind of mental drug will enhance their tolerance for the cold after breathing out.
And European governments will continue to strengthen their assistance to Ukraine, and Zelensky will continue to talk big;
Finally, the current situation will affect Russia’s stability.
Kadyrov in Chechnya sharply criticized the performance of the Russian army in an 11 minute voice on the social platform, and said that if he did not change his strategy again, he would talk to Putin if necessary. He also claimed that 10000 more troops would be sent to Odessa, and soon the Russian army would regain control of the lost towns.
From the current signs, local forces in Russia have expressed serious dissatisfaction with the central forces
So what does this war mean to us?
Of course, I personally hope that Russia will win a big victory. Among other things, Russia has always firmly supported the one China principle. Now Ukraine is ready to follow Lithuania’s example and set up a “dumb frog” contact group.
From this, we can see what kind of goods the quite black school is.
However, no matter what the reason, at present Russia is playing too far, so that less than 7 countries in the world dare to openly support Russia
In the future, Russia will not be defeated anywhere. After all, there are 3000 nails in a rotten ship, but it is estimated that it is difficult to organize a large-scale counterattack. It is only possible to stick to the position in eastern Ukraine, continue to tear up with Europe, and continue to move closer to the western region unless major changes are made.
One thing we can rest assured of is that even if there is a “change” in Russia, the relationship between Russia and the West will not ease. Worst of all, even if the Yellow Russia faction or the Russian Communist Party take power, they all think that Putin is too weak to the West and that Putin is a appeasement faction. They will be more determined to fight the west to the end.
In the past five years, neither Russia nor the Western blocs in the United States have the possibility of relaxation.
From a national perspective, if we want to reverse the pattern of U.S. hegemony, we have never expected Russia to disperse the firepower of the U.S. western bloc.
In the future, if Russia can do a good job in the strategic buffer in the northern region and avoid us being surrounded by the Western bloc of the United States, it will have the greatest value.