A hundred days of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, talk about the winners and losers!

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Original: housha source wechat official account: housha has been authorized to reprint

The Chinese Dragon Boat Festival coincided with the 100th day of the outbreak of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Major media around the world published some review and comment articles. For the vast majority of netizens, everyone seems to be watching a big play, and the most “brilliant” actor on the stage is undoubtedly ZELINSKY.

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The Ukrainian President, hailed as a superstar by Western politicians and media, sent another video on the same day. He said, “we have defended Ukraine for 100 days. The victory will belong to us and the glory to Ukraine!”

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They also took a group photo. The characters in the photo include his chief of staff, Prime Minister shimigar and others. In order to pursue dramatic effects, the characters, background and position are almost the same as the group photo taken on February 25.

Although Zelensky still insists that he will win, the enthusiasm of western countries led by the United States for the Ukrainian issue is clearly fading.

ZELINSKY also felt this. On the 3rd, after performing 100 days’ sketches, he actually lost his temper with the United States. According to the New York Times, ZELINSKY criticized American cities such as Chicago, Jacksonville (Florida), Portland (Oregon), San Diego and San Jose (California) by name, and continued to maintain sister city relations with their Russian counterparts. The Ukrainian President asked the US mayors to immediately cut off relations with friendly cities in Russia.

With the exception of Portland, other U.S. city officials did not respond to Zelensky. In fact, even the president of the United States could not meet the requirements that ZELINSKY put forward to the mayors of the United States.

ZELINSKY was so involved in the play that he really thought he was ordering the United States and Europe. However, when the “100 days” came, all parties were checking their profits and losses.

On the surface, this military conflict is a direct exchange of fire between Russia and Ukraine, but stakeholders directly or indirectly involved in the conflict are almost all over the world, even in Africa, because there is a food problem.

Those “anti war personages” said at the beginning, “there will be no winner in the war”, and then moved themselves there.

But how can there be no winner? If there is no winner, how can we explain the United States and Britain, which have started a vigorous arch fire since last year?

Putin proposed a political solution during his talks with Biden in Geneva, but Biden refused.

In November last year, during the last video conference with Biden, Putin once again raised the issue of ensuring the neutrality of Ukraine, but Biden turned the topic to Sino Russian relations.

In Medvedev’s words, Putin had no choice but to take special military action against Ukraine.

As a result, the Russian Ukrainian military conflict that shocked the world broke out on February 24. In these 100 days, the winners on the card table (whether actively or passively involved) were:

U.S.A

1? The Biden administration successfully strengthened the leadership of the United States over NATO member states;

2? The Russian German “Beixi 2” natural project that the trump Administration tried hard to destroy was easily cut off in Biden’s hands. Germany is unlikely to approve the use of “Beixi 2” during the term of this administration;

3? Through the opportunity of soaring oil and natural gas prices, American energy capital group has made a lot of profits. So far, Biden still hopes to continue to purchase Russian oil, but the price should be cheap in order to drive down the domestic oil price and resell it to Europe, Japan and South Korea;

4? The U.S. military industrial complex obtained a large number of arms orders, which were carried out in the name of “assisting Ukraine” and were approved by Congress;

5? Although NATO did not expand eastward to Ukraine, it gave Finland and Sweden the opportunity to advance their accession time. Finland and Sweden, two neutral countries, could take advantage of the fear of the people and logically apply for membership.

Russia

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1? The goal of liberating the Donbas region is advancing steadily, and the city of northern Donetsk has won about 80%.

Kherson state is related to the water and electricity supply of the Crimean Peninsula, and zaporoze is related to whether the southeast region can be connected? The disposition of these two states and whether to take the Odessa coastline will be mainly a political issue.

In other words, the result Russia wants is that the Ukrainian government recognizes that the two eastern Ukrainian states have gained full independence, and Crimea has returned to Russia. Zaporoze and Kherson will become bargaining chips (demilitarization, special status).

2? De “Nazi”. With the surrender of the “Asian speed camp” in Mariupol, it is difficult for the Neo Nazi militants in Ukraine to organize again. Now they are mainly fighting by the regular army. The issue of “de Nazism” will be declared a victory by the trial of the “Asian speed camp” elements by the Wudong special court.

3? In terms of economic war, the ruble did not collapse because of the “devastating” financial sanctions launched by the United States (excluding some Russian banks from Swift), but rebounded sharply after the rapid depreciation in the first few days.

The ruble exchange rate was 71 rubles to the US dollar before the outbreak of the conflict, and plummeted to 150 rubles to the US dollar on March 7. But three months later, it rose by about 160%, becoming the best performing currency in the world. As of the 4th, the US dollar was 63.36 rubles.

Instead, the Russian fiscal and financial sectors should worry about the possible negative impact of the excessive appreciation of the ruble on the budget and exports.

Biden’s boasting of “devastating sanctions” turned into a victory for the Russian ruble.

4? In terms of energy war, the price of crude oil has reached about $120 a barrel, and the price of natural gas is rising steadily.

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As a major energy country, what is more pleasant than keeping oil and natural gas prices high?

There is a “parabola principle” in energy prices for the United States. When the oil price is higher than a certain node, the United States will change from a profit-making party to a loss-making party. The Biden government is eager to bring down the oil price, but it can not find an effective way. The allies in the Middle East are only willing to increase production by 630000 barrels a day, which is just a drop in the bucket.

At present, Russia is becoming more and more powerful. The average monthly income of Russian energy companies is as high as US $20billion. The export volume is decreasing, but the income is increasing. The British guardian said that Russia now receives us $800million a day.

The prices of grain, fertilizer and other bulk goods are also rising, and these are good cards in Russia’s hands.

Russian military enterprises do not worry about having no orders, because the Russian army only purchases its own arms. At the same time, the monthly salary of front-line soldiers is also increasing, up to about 20000 yuan.

The United States and Russia are the winners, but Russia will win more. But the real significance of this victory or defeat lies in: as a rebel of the “American order”, Russia’s rebellion has not been severely damaged, but is profitable. How can the United States intimidate other major powers in the future?

India

For three consecutive months, India has taken the opportunity to purchase a large amount of Russian discounted crude oil, about 30% off. If it is sold to India at a 20% discount of $120 a barrel, that is $84 a barrel.

India is also a winner in refining it and selling it at a higher price to countries and regions in urgent need of oil. The only risk is that the United States may impose secondary sanctions on India.

Iran

Under the long-term sanctions imposed by the United States, this military conflict objectively found an opportunity for Iran’s oil export to Europe. At the same time, it has increased the bargaining chips for it and the United States to return to the Iran nuclear agreement.

turkey

Because Finland and Sweden joined NATO, it successfully increased its importance by using destructive tactics. It is stronger in front of the United States and has more trading capital in front of Russia.

There is also China. Because some people have the “belief” that “China must lose”, it is difficult for China to say whether it will win or lose. Although the British media say that the price of China’s purchase of Russian crude oil is lower than the discount price of India, and it has long been “reselling” to Europe, we never like to profit from other people’s military conflicts. China should promote talks and peace, so as to restore stability at an early date. If you make a little money, it is also tearful money.

And the losers

The European Union has launched the sixth round of sanctions against Russia to cut off the oil trade, but Hungary does not agree. In the case that the United States has been stealing Russian oil, the EU has not only built its own energy security, but also provided for a non EU member state – Ukraine.

On May 31, von der lain said that he would provide 9billion euros of additional assistance to Ukraine, which was approved by the European Council. This self mutilation shows that EU leaders are not serving the interests of Europe at all.

These politicians are also very hard spoken, saying that “freedom is higher than free trade” and “values are more important than natural gas”.

Let’s see how Europeans spend their summer heat and winter cold?

No matter who wins or loses, in general, the real big winner of this military conflict is ZELINSKY.

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According to European online media, on May 6, Zelensky’s parents obtained Israeli citizenship through the special approval procedures of Israeli Prime Minister Bennett (dual citizenship is allowed in Ukraine)

Zelinski also purchased a house worth 8million dollars (950 square meters, with gardens and swimming pools) in the small town of lishpen, 58 kilometers away from Jerusalem, as well as two Lexus bulletproof cars. The town has a population of about 3000, and is basically Jewish rich people from Eastern Europe. The security of his parents is the responsibility of the Israeli intelligence agency, which is really a matter of state and family.

His zelenskaya wife and children are also about to acquire British citizenship (some say already).

Since being elected president in 2019, the Zelensky couple’s property has increased to about $800million. The actor successfully joined the ranks of Ukraine’s top billionaires.

Perhaps this is the success of the Jews.

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The only real loser in this military conflict is the Ukrainian people.

The United States says it stands with them every day, but it destroys their homes step by step. ZELINSKY is nothing more than the most loyal and craziest agent.

When everything returns to calm (the great powers compromise), we must let ZELINSKY continue his performance on the bench.

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