Author: Ming Shuyuan official account: Ming shuzatan wechat id:laomingdashu
According to the traditional view, when the new US president takes office, there will be a so-called “honeymoon period” with the public.
However, for the Biden administration, this “honeymoon period” is particularly short.
On January 20, 2021, Biden took office. In August of that year, Biden’s poll showed a “death cross”. Since then, Biden’s support rate has never exceeded the disapproval rate, and has shown a growing trend.
This is not good news for Biden himself and the Democratic Party.
The Biden administration’s “honeymoon period” is particularly short, which is mainly related to two factors:
First, “congenitally deficient”. Since trump, the social polarization in the United States has been very serious. Trump has greatly promoted this process. As a result, after Biden came to power, Republican supporters have not been very interested in him from beginning to end, and many people believe Trump’s statement that Biden became president through election fraud;
Second, “acquired disorder”. The Biden administration’s ability to govern is really poor. In August, 2021, only seven months after the Biden administration took office, there was a “great collapse in Kabul”. After 20 years of fighting in Afghanistan, the United States finally “ran away with its tail between its legs”, completely ignoring the life and death of the Afghan people. Even NATO allies did not communicate well, leading to various chaos in Kabul airport. This is also the time point when Biden poll appeared “death cross”.
After four years of Trump’s madness, many people in the United States had expected Biden to take office, which would bring the United States back to the “good old days”. However, it was not long before they found that the so-called good days were gone forever.
Biden is old and seriously out of energy. In addition, the problems of core team members have led to the poor governance ability of the Biden government, which should be a record for many years.
Biden has been in Washington for more than 40 years. He is a “veteran” in American politics. Many of his core teams are “family worship” candidates who have followed him for many years, including Secretary of state Antony Blinken, President’s national security assistant Sullivan, and so on. These people, regardless of their seniority, experience and ability, are not particularly outstanding in the US diplomatic and national security system.
Biden, in order to embody the so-called “political correctness”, artificially diversified within the ruling team. As you can recall, the US Secretary of defense played an absolutely crucial role. When the US invaded Iraq in 2003, then Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld “got the wind and the rain” and played the leading role. But, Biden’s Defense Secretary Austin, have you ever heard of his extraordinary performance in the Russian Ukrainian conflict?
Biden has been in office for nearly a year and a half. He has not shown much in terms of domestic and foreign affairs. On the contrary, there has been a serious problem of inflation in the U.S. economy, which is currently at the highest level in more than 40 years.
On the three major issues of economy, immigration and diplomacy that the American people are very concerned about, Biden’s dissatisfaction has significantly exceeded his satisfaction, with the gap of 26.6, 13.3 and 23.3 percentage points respectively.
For many years, the American people have believed that the country is in the wrong direction of development. After the Biden administration took office for more than a year, this problem has not been improved:
At present, the proportion of people who believe that the United States is in the wrong direction of development is as high as 69.3%, much higher than 22.7% who believe that the country is in the right direction of development.
Biden once ascended the U.S. presidency as a “healer”, but there are deep-seated reasons for the polarization, opposition and tearing of American society, and Biden is powerless.
According to the opinion polls, not only the Republican supporters are very dissatisfied with Biden, but a large number of intermediate voters are also abandoning Biden.
When the US president is in office for two years, he will face the big test of the mid-term congressional elections, and Biden is no exception.
On November 8, 2022, the United States will usher in the most important election in two years.
According to the poll data, it is certain that the Democratic Party will lose the house of Representatives and the Senate.
It is a common practice for American voters to “punish” the Party of the president who is not in power through the mid-term elections.
This year’s Democratic Party will have a very hard time.
Losing a majority in either or both houses of Congress would be a serious blow to Biden.
According to the current situation, the Republican Party has been able to secure 223 seats in the house of Representatives, more than the 218 seats needed to obtain the majority. The other 32 seats that both parties have the opportunity to fight for, even if they are all won by the Democratic Party, it will not help.
In the Senate, the Republican party currently holds 47 seats, the Democratic Party holds 46 seats, and there are seven seats for both parties. If the Republican Party gets a little bit lucky, the Democratic Party will also lose its majority in the Senate.
Even at present, the Democratic Party clearly has a majority in the house of Representatives and a majority in the Senate by relying on the key vote of vice president Harris, but many of the plans put forward by Biden, including the ambitious reconstruction plan, have been delayed because of the division within the Democratic Party.
Think about how difficult Biden will face after the mid-term elections this year, when the Republicans control one or both houses of Congress.
At that time, the Republican Party was bent on letting the Biden administration do nothing, make a fool of itself and fail, so as to take advantage of the presidential and congressional elections in 2024.
This is the political system of the two parties in power in the United States, which has evolved to the present “alienation”. As for the two parties, whether they can help each other in times of national crisis is not under consideration at all. How to defeat their opponents and how to make their own profits are the biggest motivation for American politicians to do things.
For the people in China, Biden can not be judged without two points:
First, the Biden administration’s performance in the Russian Ukrainian conflict can be said to be a waste of money. Some people think that after the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States launched its allies to impose extreme sanctions on Russia, which shows that the Biden administration still has a strong ability to mobilize its allies. But to be realistic, before the end of 2021, the Biden administration refused to conduct serious and serious negotiations with Russia, pushing the situation directly into conflict. Strategically, the United States must have “picked up sesame seeds and lost watermelon”.
In the short term, the United States has achieved a lot in mobilizing allies and attacking Russia. By draining the blood of the last Ukrainian, the United States has basically achieved the goal of “controlling Russia with Ukraine” by consuming Russia. The United States has basically achieved the goal of “controlling Europe because of Russia” by inciting Europe’s fear and hatred of Russia.
However, at present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for four months. Ukraine is extremely difficult on the battlefield and will lose 45% of its territory. How can the United States explain to Ukrainians and allies?
Through Ukraine, many people have seen clearly that the United States supports its so-called allies.
Even some people in Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party have seen clearly that being a pawn of the United States will not come to a good end.
The United States wants to “control Europe because of Russia” and let the European Union bear the huge cost of sanctions against Russia, which has led to soaring inflation in EU countries. No matter how stupid the politicians and people in EU countries are, they just dare to be angry.
If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, the cost borne by the EU will become larger and larger. Especially in this winter, when some EU countries even have heating problems, the politicians and people of several EU countries will continue to support Ukraine and Russia.
After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States raised the geopolitical crisis caused by the contradiction between Russia and the United States to the confrontation between “aggression and anti aggression” and “democracy and totalitarianism”, and once threatened to support Ukraine to defeat Russia, which led to Ukraine becoming a “bottomless pit” of U.S. assistance.
The United States wants to use Ukraine to consume Russia, and Russia is also using Ukraine to consume the United States. Who can last longer?
From the perspective of the strategic triangle between China, the United States and Russia, Biden and the Democratic Party have “national enmity” towards Russian President Vladimir Putin. They seize an opportunity and want to kill Russia. However, history has proved that no matter how weak Russia is, Russia has never completely collapsed for hundreds of years.
The extreme sanctions launched by the United States and its allies have undoubtedly dealt a serious blow to Russia’s economy. However, Russia is not short of energy and food. If it is consumed for a long time, will Russia fear the United States?
Through the Russia Ukraine war, the Biden administration reaped the benefits of short-term attack on Russia, but in the long run, it once again pushed the Russian US relations into a long historical cycle of sharp opposition. Russia has survived the most difficult days now. Once it slows down in the future, it will settle accounts with the United States sooner or later.
The United States wants to strangle Russia, which has objectively further consolidated the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination between China and Russia in the new era.
What is the Biden administration thinking?
Second, finally, the Biden administration is also full of contradictions in China US relations.
On the one hand, Biden made a commitment of “four no’s and one no’s” to the Chinese side. On the other hand, the Biden administration’s diplomatic and national security team reneged on their words every day and assumed that they wanted to contain China to the end.
What is more contradictory is that while the Biden administration severely stimulated China, it hoped that China would not “tear its face” with the United States and establish a so-called “fence” for China US relations. This plan, to put it bluntly, is “I can hit you hard, but you don’t lift the table”.
What kind of thinking is this?
The Biden administration has also asked China for help on other bilateral, international and regional issues, including the serious inflation that the United States is now facing. It needs China to give the United States a step down so that the United States can announce the cancellation of some tariffs on China. However, the U.S. government has not shown any goodwill on Sino US relations recently.
What is the Biden administration thinking?
Guozhengliang, a former legislator of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party, recently put forward a view that the Biden government’s ability to govern is too poor. The reason for the various contradictory practices of the United States is an apocalyptic chaos. In other words, the Biden government has collapsed.
The mid-term election at the end of 2022 is getting closer. Will the US presidential election in 2024 be far behind?
Since trump stepped down, he has never conceded defeat or been idle. He is still holding election rallies everywhere, giving platforms to Republicans and raising money.
According to the current situation, after the mid-term elections, if the democratic party loses, there will be more and more voices within the Democratic Party asking Biden not to seek re-election.
If Biden insists on seeking re-election, he will face Trump’s “revenge war” in 2024.
In the words of Chinese netizens, it is encouraging for two people in their 80s to fight so hard for a job, but it is not a good thing for the American nation and people.