A terrible vicious circle is forming!

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Source: wechat official account: Bu Yidao has been authorized to reprint

Write / nag sister & Sword smile

Washington has started a new round of trouble in the South China Sea.

Shortly after the U.S. missile destroyer Benford illegally broke into China’s Xisha territorial sea under the banner of “freedom of navigation”, the U.S. Indo Pacific Command announced that the aircraft carrier strike group “Reagan” had entered the South China Sea to carry out missions.

The timing of these actions is quite delicate.

The previous 12th was the 6th anniversary of the so-called South China Sea arbitration ruling. The US Secretary of state deliberately chose to issue a statement on this day to hype the so-called “ruling”, although Manila’s relevant statement did not mention “China”.

In combination with the ongoing circum Pacific military exercise, it was previously revealed that Japan might deploy a central missile, and South Korea was promoting the normalization of the “THAAD” base. Some scholars believe that the Asia Pacific region has fallen into a “security dilemma”.

Where is the root of this “security dilemma” and is it possible to resolve it?

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The announcement that the “Reagan” aircraft carrier strike group entered the South China Sea deepened the signs that the United States was starting a new round of disruption in the South China Sea.

In fact, @ South China Sea strategic situational awareness began to track the trajectory of the Reagan on the 9th. This aircraft carrier group has just finished its military exercise in Guam and then sailed westward. On the 13th, according to the flight trajectory of the carrier aircraft, the Reagan has been operating in the waters south of the the Nansha Islands.

The U.S. Indo Pacific command issued a press release on the same day, saying that during the security operation of the Reagan in the South China Sea, a series of exercises will be held, including the flight operations of fixed wing and rotorcraft aircraft, the maritime strike drill, and the cooperative tactical training of surface and air forces.

It doesn’t really matter what subjects you practice. What matters is the purpose.

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Rear Admiral Michael Donnelly of the United States Navy bluntly said that the “Reagan” strike group will continue to focus on how to “always maintain capability and combat readiness” during its activities in the South China Sea, and “demonstrate its commitment to the region”. Rear admiral goldhammer, the captain of the Reagan, said the operation “shows that the United States is committed to a free and open Indo Pacific”.

This is the first time that the “Reagan” aircraft carrier formation entered the South China Sea this year. But it is expected that it may not stay in the South China Sea for long. According to BBC and Vietnamese media reports, the Reagan will visit Danang in Vietnam in late July, which is the second visit of the US aircraft carrier to Vietnam after two years.

Even many U.S. media have noticed the sudden intensification of U.S. warships in the South China Sea. On the day of the announcement of the Reagan, earlier on the 13th, the US missile destroyer Benford had illegally intruded into China’s Xisha territorial sea under the banner of “freedom of navigation”.

A spokesman for the seventh fleet of the US Navy said that this was the second us “freedom of navigation” operation in the the Xisha Islands since this year. In order to pretend to be “equal treatment”, the US military said that the Benford not only “challenged” the maritime claims of Chinese Mainland, but also challenged Taiwan and Vietnam.

The southern theater of the PLA immediately organized naval and air forces to track and monitor the US ships and warn them to drive away. Tian Junli, spokesman of the southern theater, solemnly pointed out that the US military’s actions are another proof of its great pursuit of navigation hegemony and the militarization of the South China Sea. The troops in the theater are always on high alert and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and security and peace and stability in the South China Sea.

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The opportunity for US aircraft carriers and destroyers to enter the South China Sea and even violate China’s sovereignty is also worth pondering.

The day before, on the 12th, the Secretary of state of the United States took advantage of the 6th anniversary of the so-called South China Sea arbitration ruling to make a statement. On the one hand, he hyped and claimed to support the “ruling”, on the other hand, “warned” that if the Philippine Army was attacked in the South China Sea, the United States would “defend the Philippines” in accordance with the mutual defense treaty between the two countries.

China’s sovereignty over the islands in the South China Sea has sufficient historical and legal basis. The so-called “South China Sea arbitration award” is illegal and invalid, which need not be repeated. The damage caused by the “ruling” to Sino Philippines relations and peace and stability in the South China Sea was also obvious.

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However, Washington does not care about the practical interests of the countries around the South China Sea, hypes and uses the South China Sea dispute to provoke the relationship between China and ASEAN countries, and “reshapes China’s surrounding strategic environment” with extreme confrontation and zero sum game thinking. The United States has no secret about this.

It is reported that two B2 stealth bombers of the U.S. Air Force landed at the Royal Air Force Base in ambry, Australia, on July 10, and began to carry out a new bomber special operation mission in the “Indo Pacific”.

This, together with the intensive operations of the “Reagan” and “Benford” in the South China Sea, verified the impulse of the United States to further increase its military presence and even “frontal confrontation” in the Asia Pacific region.

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The South China Sea is only one direction for the United States to engage in affairs in the Asia Pacific region.

The 28th Pacific Rim military exercise, the world’s largest international maritime exercise, is being held.

The current circum Pacific military exercise, which was launched on June 29, will last until August 4. This year, more than 25000 people from 26 countries participated.

Count the participating countries, the member countries of Orcus, the member countries of the Quartet security dialogue, and the five countries around the South China Sea… The direction of the military exercise has been very obvious.

The US Navy’s press release on the “2022 Pacific Rim military exercise” is even more outspoken: the military exercise is to “prevent and defeat the aggressive acts of major powers in all areas and stages of the conflict”. This is almost a reproduction of the so-called “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow”.

However, in previous years, is there still little NATO military exercises and deterrence against Russia? In addition to intensifying contradictions, these actions finally went out of control and did not “bluff” anyone.

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Taiwan’s navy was not invited to participate in this year’s circum Pacific military exercise. The commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet papalo also said that the purpose of this military exercise was not to confront or threaten China. Saying one thing and doing another is Washington’s usual routine. Even during the cold war, the central Pacific military exercises rarely directly named the Soviet Union.

Moreover, this year papalo also made no secret that this year’s military exercise is aimed at the situation in the Taiwan Strait in 2027, “if there is a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the United States will be prepared to deal with the worst possible”.

The Huantai military exercise has obviously changed its flavor and has become a strategic tool of the United States.

In addition to the “military exercise show”, the United States is also trying to set off a new round of arms race in the Asia Pacific region.

For example, since last year, the United States has tried its best to induce and pressure the Japanese government to strengthen the “integrated deterrence” of the “first island chain” to China, that is, to deploy the medium range ballistic missile (medium range ballistic missile) force in the southwestern islands of Japan.

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The Kishida government has not yet made a public final decision on this, but the Japanese Self Defense Force has substantively started the preliminary preparations for the deployment of guided missiles.

At the end of last year, the commander of the United States, India and the Pacific Aquilino inspected the preparation of military bases in the southwestern islands of Japan. In January this year, the Japan US joint statement said that the US military and the Japanese self defense force would gradually strengthen the shared use of military facilities in the southwestern islands.

In addition, Washington has been “urging” South Korea to promote the normalization of the “THAAD” base as soon as possible.

At present, the “THAAD” base is in a temporary (field) deployment state.

Now, the environmental impact assessment of the base has been put on the agenda, which is an important signal for the Yin Xiyue government to continue to push forward the deployment of “THAAD”. After the environmental impact assessment of the base is completed, the next logical thing is likely to restore the normal operation of the “THAAD” base.

Such as the circum Pacific military exercise and the deployment of “THAAD” are important components of the U.S. strategic eastward shift. There is only one ultimate goal, that is to support and maintain the absolute hegemony of the United States in the Asia Pacific and even the world.

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However, the consequence of the above actions of Washington is that the Asia Pacific region seems to have fallen into a “security dilemma”.

Because when the United States strengthens its own security, it will inevitably cause insecurity in other relevant countries, and they will respond and respond. In turn, the latter’s move will once again cause the insecurity of the United States and its allies, and then deploy military weapons… This will be a terrible vicious circle.

Jin Canrong, a professor at the school of international relations of Renmin University of China, pointed out that the current “security dilemma” in the Asia Pacific region was caused by the U.S. mentality of seeking “absolute security”.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States had a short period close to achieving the “absolute security” it wanted. After China’s military strength has grown in recent years, the United States believes that this situation undermines the “absolute security” it wants.

When the United States finds that it cannot “do whatever it wants” with China and is unwilling to accept “relative security”, its mentality becomes more and more unbalanced and its sense of security continues to be lost.

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Washington does not understand that the “absolute security” it seeks has never existed. “Security” is only a relative concept, and Washington already has “relative security”. Because the purpose of China’s military development is only to maintain its own security, not to threaten anyone.

There is no so-called “security dilemma” between China and the United States.

In the final analysis, Washington needs to change its mindset of pursuing “absolute security”. The “absolute security” it pursues will only bring absolute “insecurity” to other countries, and will only bury serious hidden dangers for the safety of relevant regions.

However, Jin Canrong also mentioned that it is estimated that it is difficult to see significant changes in the United States in this regard in the short term. We should continue to do our own thing well, and do a good job in regional and economic cooperation, so as to cooperate to resolve the provocation and provocation of the United States.

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