Abe’s accidental death may make southeast Asia cry!

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Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (id:hooyar_380097485)

A fan asked me whether Abe’s assassination would lead to a major outbreak of Japanese right-wing forces and a return to militarism?

Is this worry really surprising? Don’t you see the eastern theater of great powers showing their muscles?

90 years ago, Japan’s national strength and military strength lashed out at the fragmented old China. People played militarism against us, relying purely on the strong and bullying the weak, without pressure.

Using foreign aggression to transfer domestic contradictions is certainly useful, but you have to look at your opponents.

In those days, the devils coveted the territory of the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union was weak in the Far East. As long as the devils dared to fight the Soviet Union, there were many capitalist supporters in the world.

If you don’t do things that earn both fame and wealth, you will invade China and snatch the interests of China from other imperialists. Why is this?

In the final analysis, old China was weak and the Soviet Union was strong. In the Russo Japanese War, Japan gambled on its national fortune but won miserably. The Soviet Union could fight anything better than tsarist Russia. If it really went north to fight the Soviet Union, it would be called looking for death. No matter how bellicose militarists honestly withdrew their hands in front of reality.

With the military strength of today’s great powers, no matter how stupid Japanese militarists are, they know that to directly harden steel is to find a dead end for themselves.

It’s nothing more than betting that he will be a good watchdog of the United States. In an emergency, the United States emperor will loosen his paws like Germany for the sake of the Far East.

But trump of German descent can be the president of the United States and successfully recreate the Republican Party. Can any Japanese descent achieve this achievement?

In the 1980s, how was Japan repaired by Americans and destroyed its future development with the bursting of a foam economy?

With the development of science and technology in the world in recent decades, why can Japan always magically click the wrong science and technology tree?

To put it bluntly, the largest downstream consumer is the United States, and the international capital is also controlled by the United States. Americans use the market and capital to choose the scientific and technological direction for Japan and say no, what’s the matter with you?

As long as you choose your opposite home and let it win the market, you will be finished. There is no market and no profit. How can you grow in the application technology market?

Well, even if Elpida bet on the latest technology of storage DRAM, so what?

Capital starts the counter cycle, makes you bankrupt with the power of finance, and then packs the technology away, which is also useless.

So even if Japan has a unique vision like son Zhengyi and looks at the investment talents for the future, Japan is bound to be run half dead in the new economy.

The United States defines Japan as a dog placed in East Asia to contain China.

Maybe it’s worse than a dog. If you have a dog, you have to feed it dog food every day, but Japan is a leek land of American capital, and you come to harvest it every few days.

Americans still remember the sneak attack on Pearl Harbor and reflect on the Pacific War.

In the 1980s, if Japan had not been severely harvested, “Japan can say no” would have been talked about every day.

Why Japan has been losing, it is not that Japan is not hard enough, but that it was too hard in those years. That caution was seen through by Americans, and it directly blocked the rising ceiling for you.

At this point, Japan’s so-called right-wing people are almost Menqing. At the same time, they also know that if they want to maintain the situation of Japan’s developed countries, they can only keep showing loyalty to the United States, so that Americans think they have the ability to contain China.

So don’t scold the right wingers for being stupid. They only show their teeth against China and don’t know how to fight the United States.

In today’s world pattern, if Japan jumps up and resists, the skin of developed countries will soon be stripped by the United States.

If we analyze the attitude of the United States towards Japan and South Korea today, it is obvious that South Korea’s treatment is much better, because South Korea has North Korea, its sworn enemy, and does not even have the ability to unify, let alone resist the United States.

The Japanese Prime Minister has been trying to bypass the historical grievances between China and Japan and unite with China to get rid of Japan’s shackles. After all, after thousands of years of being close to China, even if the Chinese have become bigger and stronger, they have never had the ambition to occupy Japan. It is true that the vast and abundant China does not look down on this barren and disaster prone land.

But since the collapse of the Soviet Union, every politician who tried to be all-round friendly with China ended up unable to stay in politics.

For politicians, the first important thing is to keep their position, so those who can work longer in the position of prime minister must try to do something Anti China to please the United States and brush their own value of existence.

Before Abe, Junichiro Koizumi spent the longest time in the position of prime minister, and the people’s impression of him was also very bad.

Friendly people like Hosokawa and Yasuo Fukuda will disappear from politics inexplicably after basically expressing their friendly attitude. Even Abe’s first term as prime minister was soon dismissed because of his friendly attitude towards China.

In 2012, when Abe became Prime Minister for the second time, he began various anti China shows, and sure enough, he could work for a few more years.

Interestingly, from Abe’s visit to China in 2019 to 2020, Abe voluntarily resigned. After his resignation, he began to become more and more right-wing Anti China.

Some time ago, the yen exchange rate plummeted, and Japanese government bonds even fell to a fuse. Interestingly, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that he intended to raise interest rates, but the governor of the Bank of Japan, Toshiko Kuroda, insisted on not raising interest rates and decided to continue to buy Japanese government bonds.

Kuroda has Abe’s support behind him, so he doesn’t pay much attention to Fumio Kishida.

Over the years, the Bank of Japan has created a large amount of money through unrestricted quantitative easing. It is reasonable that Japan should have inflation for a long time. Why is there no inflation in Japan?

Because not much of the money from quantitative easing remained in Japan and did not flow to ordinary people. It was given to large consortiums and enterprises.

These large consortiums and enterprises use this money to invest abroad through a series of ingenious means.

This wave of Japanese foreign investment is in two directions from going to Europe and the United States in the 1980s. Most of the money went to Asian countries.

Quite simply, American and European families are high castes. Do Japanese capital dare to invade them? The beating in the 1980s should be taught a long lesson.

But facing the Asian countries, it’s not afraid, and the United States is behind it.

So once Japan also wants to follow the fed to raise interest rates and shrink the table, will those countries that rely on Japanese investment to balance their trade accounts be scared to pee?

Countries like Thailand, which is heavily dependent on Japanese investment, account for 70% of the total foreign investment. If the yen raises interest rates and shrinks the table, will Thailand be the first to have an accident? Think about why the Asian financial crisis broke out in Thailand in 1997 and then spread to Asian countries?

It was not because after the Kobe earthquake, a large number of Japanese funded enterprises in Thailand withdrew their capital to rebuild Japan, the United States engaged in a cycle of interest rate hikes, and the yen took the opportunity to depreciate.

Of course, there is no Kobe earthquake in this wave, but as long as Japan raises interest rates and shrinks the table, the financing costs of the consortiums will rise and the financing difficulties will increase, which will also force the funds to flee Southeast Asia.

With this round of tightening cycle jumping up in the United States, it is certainly possible to have another wave of Asian financial crisis.

Abe has always supported Kuroda’s determination not to raise interest rates and adhere to not shrinking his watch, in order not to hope that the huge amount of overseas Japanese investment will not shrink.

As an old politician who has been dealing with Americans for more than ten years, Abe certainly understands that the interest rate hike policy of the United States is difficult to continue. The depreciation of the yen is nothing more than a hard time. If it is carried over for a while, the United States will not be able to bear it first.

So you see, our monetary policy is also countercyclical and loose. The reason is the same. The United States, with a national debt scale of more than $30trillion, has an annual fiscal revenue of less than $4trillion. Where is the money to maintain a long-term high interest rate financial environment?

However, as I have analyzed before, this wave of interest rate hikes and contraction in the United States has become more and more serious. It is certainly not so simple to control inflation. In fact, the worst wave of inflation has long passed. The reason why Americans have to raise interest rates violently is to trigger a worldwide crisis.

The United States cannot solve its own problems, so it can only make the world worse. In the worse link, only by restarting the dollar to release water can the world see the opportunity to get out of the mud. This is what the Federal Reserve really wants to do.

Europe is now completely rotten. If Japan is used as the lead to blow up the whole Southeast Asia, then a new wave of Asian financial crisis can break out. It also points out that the crisis can drag China into the water.

However, while manipulating the right-wing speech, Abe supported Kuroda, insisted on not raising interest rates and continued to release water. How long can Kuroda survive without Abe?

On the 8th, the United States suddenly came up with a surprisingly good employment data, which is endorsing the continued crazy interest rate hike. The American data, who believes who is stupid, but the data can reveal the minds of those who publish the data.

Now Japan’s pillar auto industry has a little trend of the household appliance industry in those days.

Fumio Kishida may also want to work hard to cooperate with the United States to keep the last pillar industry.

In the final analysis, we can’t say who is right and who is wrong. Everyone has their own positions, but if people aren’t there, no matter how right the choice is, it can’t be implemented.

This July is doomed to be restless.

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