This article is reproduced by Niu Danqin (id:bullpiano) with authorization. Author: Niu Danqin
Two shots were fired on the streets of Nara, and Shinzo Abe, a powerful Japanese generation, fell forever at the age of 67. There is no doubt that this is the most important political event in Japan after the war, and also a great shock to the world.
The specific details of the assassination are not mentioned, but I have to feel that fate makes people confused. You know, Abe took a plane to transfer to the car that day, and he rushed to Nara to deliver a political speech in the street. The audience was only a few dozen people, but he didn’t want to end up there.
The deceased is the greatest. The whole world mourned. However, the tragic ending of this heavyweight politician inevitably brings great shock and influence to Japan’s neighboring countries and the world.
From a completely personal point of view, there are at least ten consequences, some of which involve foreign evaluations of Abe and the use of “borrowing others’ glasses to pour blocks in your chest”. But we must be vigilant about some of the signals transmitted.
The first consequence is that the Japanese mentality has changed.
Seeing more than one Japanese sighed that this matter would “permanently change Japan”.
Abe’s death will certainly change Japanese politics, but it will also change the Japanese mentality. Japan is considered one of the countries with the lowest gun crime rate in the world. In 2018, only 9 people died of gun violence, while 39740 people died in the United States. However, Abe was assassinated in the street. Japanese politics must be in danger. Who may be the next target? People are inevitably panic stricken. Is Japan still safe?
Japan has entered a troubled time, and its domestic contradictions have become prominent. If some contradictions are not eliminated, they will certainly overflow and affect the surrounding and even the world.
The second consequence is that the right wing will certainly rise.
This is the result we don’t want to see, but it is a cruel reality we must face.
The arrested murderer, Tomoya Yamagata, who was a member of the Japanese self defense force, claimed that he was dissatisfied with Abe and “just wanted to kill him”. Motivation may always be a mystery, even if it is published, people may not believe it. However, tragic events, Abe’s position as a right-wing leader, will certainly lead to the rise of Japan’s right-wing, and even do not rule out accelerating Abe’s constitutional amendment process.
This can’t help but remind people of the assassination of Japan before the war. This year coincides with the 90th anniversary of Japan’s “May 15 incident”. At that time, some young right-wing officers assassinated Japanese Prime Minister Kobayashi, thus opening the prelude to the Fascism of Japan.
Hopefully, this is my worry.
Third, the Japanese political reshuffle intensified.
Of course, Japan today is not pre war Japan after all. After Abe’s departure, Japan’s political arena will be rapidly cleaned up.
In the short term, the Liberal Democratic Party will show unity, and the Japanese people will also vote with sympathy. But Fumio Kishida is not Abe’s son after all, and the two factions have always been at odds. Kishida accelerated out of Abe’s shadow, and did not rule out the immediate cabinet restructuring to eliminate Abe’s cronies, such as Abe’s brother, defense minister Nobuo Kishida, and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) political Commission Changgao city Zaomiao.
Abe’s rightwing orientation will be inherited, or even strengthened; But Abe’s basic plate will be divided by other factions. Of course, when the struggle is fierce, Japan will be tougher and more provocative to the outside world.
Fourth, the surrounding areas become more complicated.
Everything affects the whole body. Consequence two and consequence three will inevitably lead to consequence four.
What will North Korea think about Japan’s constitutional amendment? What would South Korea think? What will China think? What will Southeast Asia think? After all, Japan is a country that has brought great disasters to the whole Asia. Japan has been militarized again and turned sharply to the right. These victims in those years must be more vigilant.
In particular, the relations between North Korea, South Korea and China and Japan will be more complex and the struggle will be more intense. Let’s watch it next. I hope it’s not a bloodbath.
The fifth consequence is to see the dual nature of Japanese politicians.
Abe is definitely a tough character. Through Abe’s death, we can see the two sides of Japanese politicians.
One side is forbearance and pragmatism. I once wrote that he trotted to see Putin and even met trump before he came to power, regardless of courtesy. Abe explained that he just followed the “gentleman leopard change”. This is from our ancient book of changes. The original words are: Da
Man and tiger change, villain leather face, gentleman and leopard change. Abe’s explanation is: “it’s not for the sake of protecting ourselves, but for the sake of the country and the people. We can lose face. This is the attitude we should have as leaders.”
The other side is stubborn and conservative. For example, after stepping down, he quickly visited the Yasukuni Shrine, criticized China and threatened that “the affairs of Taiwan are the affairs of Japan”. He even complacently disclosed that when he first met trump, he “complained” that China had spent nearly 30 years increasing its defense spending by about 40 times. Except for China, no country in the world has such a speed
Is ABE the only Japanese politician with two sides? We must have a clear understanding.
Sixth, the United States used it for the last time.
After Abe’s death, the world mourned. After all, as Japan’s longest serving prime minister after the war, Abe is also the Japanese leader who has the greatest impact on the world.
But the mourning of US President Biden is more unusual. Biden said, “violent attacks are absolutely unacceptable. Gun violence has left deep scars on all societies affected by it.”
This is obviously a political assassination. How can it be gun violence? Obviously, in Biden’s eyes, mourning Abe’s death is just a reason to take a stand against gun violence in the United States. Some Americans criticized that the official documents of the president of the United States, especially the special moment of mourning Abe, were also “exported for domestic sale” and “smuggled goods”.
International politics is sometimes so snobbish. Even if the mourning object is Abe, who is extremely friendly to the United States. This is the United States. Perhaps this is the last time Abe has been used by the United States.
Consequence seven, Putin has something to say.
After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the relations between Japan and Russia have deteriorated in an all-round way. Putin’s message of condolence is even more true.
In the message of condolence, Putin said: “a pair of criminal hands killed an outstanding politician. Abe has led the Japanese government for a long time and made many contributions to the development of good neighborly and friendly relations between the two countries. We have maintained long-term contact with Abe, in which his excellent personal and professional qualities have been fully reflected…”
Kremlin spokesman Peskov said more bluntly: “We express our deep condolences to all the Japanese people. Mr. Abe is a real Japanese patriot. He has always defended his national interests and is more willing to do so at the negotiating table. Because of this, he has established a very good and constructive relationship with President Putin. At present, this political will is scarce in some countries, and they are more willing to defend their interests on the battlefield. This is a dead end.”
It’s Abe, but it’s more like it’s for Fumio Kishida and other leaders. This is the skill of diplomacy.
Consequence eight, modi really has a set.
Among all the leaders’ messages of condolence, modi really has a set of skills.
After Abe’s death, modi sent seven tweets in a row, shocked and sad about the unfortunate death of his “dear friend”, and prayed for Abe, Abe’s family and the Japanese people. He also recalled his many years of friendship with Abe, and said he saw Abe during his recent visit to Japan, “I didn’t expect this to be the last time we met.”
The most impressive is modi’s order that India will hold a one-day national mourning from July 9 to express its “deepest respect” for Abe.
This is diplomacy. Modi’s flexibility is really unique. Abe died, but such an exceptional mourning for Abe is undoubtedly a big plus for Japan India relations.
Consequence 9: a special test for China.
We see that China and South Korea expressed their condolences for the first time, regardless of the previous criticism of Abe.
The Chinese Ministry of foreign affairs stated that former Prime Minister Abe had made contributions to promoting the improvement and development of China Japan relations. “We express our condolences and condolences to the families of former Prime Minister Abe.”
In the same sentence, the deceased is a big one, and it should be approved when it is time, but in special times, there should be diplomatic etiquette. This is great power diplomacy.
As far as we ordinary people are concerned, I can see that there are indeed all kinds of statements. But I think, after all, the other party is already a deceased person, and we can’t forgive his bad behavior, but it’s also a more mature national mentality to express condolences generously. It is also in China’s best interests to have more friends and fewer enemies.
Of course, we should be vigilant about Japan’s next move, especially its more right-wing performance.
Consequence 10: extra points for Japan’s soft power.
We should be especially sober about this. So many world leaders, both in the west, the East and the south, expressed deep condolences over Abe’s death.
There are not many politicians who can enjoy such sorrow and honor and look around the world. Time weekly also immediately published Abe’s cover article, which must be mostly flattering.
This also shows us Japan’s soft power. Although it is easy for our surrounding countries to see the two sides of Japanese politicians, in the world, Japan’s soft power is stronger than that of many countries, including China, which is something we must face up to.
Abe’s tragic ending and the sympathy of all countries in the world will certainly further beautify Japan’s image, making Japan sometimes more confident.
This may also be Abe’s last contribution to Japan. A powerful figure, however, died in the street in this way. Alas, life is short. No matter how gorgeous the cherry blossom is, it is just a moment of youth!