Source: New Fashion Meditation (ID: xinchaochensi)
Author: Kafka of Xinhuamen
If we look back on human history in the future, the year 2020 is bound to be a milestone year. This year, the “pandemic” not only caused many people to lose their lives, but also made the world enter a rare “great blockade” state. It can be said that this round of human globalization has passed the summit here.
As an article in the Economist, “goodbye globalization The danger lure of self sufficiency”, said:
“The epidemic has exposed the anarchy of global governance. France and the United Kingdom have been arguing over quarantine rules; the United States continues to sharpen its sword for trade wars. Although there were some examples of cooperation during the epidemic period – for example, the Federal Reserve lent money to other central banks – the United States was unwilling to play a leading role in the world… Public opinion around the world is abandoning globalization.”
The author believes that, in essence, our generation is a generation that grew up in “peace under the rule of the United States”, specifically in political philosophy, cultural trends, popular elements, technological progress, capital derivation, the final consumption of commodity production, etc. The United States is the beginning and end of everything. However, when such an order shows the decay of its vitality, people think that the disintegration (disintegration in universal cognition) comes faster than the true disintegration.
However, it must be pointed out that everything does not change linearly, especially the “world order”, an extremely non representational abstract thing, which almost only exists in our imagination. Since Biden took the stage, it seems that the world before 2019 has “returned”, especially in the western world, where freedom and human rights, especially since this year, have almost united to “defend Ukraine”, It seems that the impact of Trump in the previous four years is only a short-term impact, and the world is “still flat”. How to analyze these changes still needs to start from the changes in ideology and ideology.
The foundation of globalization is no longer
In the article “Unequal world will eventually move towards” decoupling “, the author analyzed the world contradictions in the era of globalization. Here, a brief retrospect is made. In the era of globalization, through the free flow of capital and elements, and China’s full participation in international labor division, the production capacity of the human world has been improved unprecedentedly, which benefits the entire human world in general.
However, globalization is actually “capitalist globalization”, which has fundamental problems of its own development. We describe it with three levels of imbalance:
1. The sovereignty of financial countries and industrial countries is seriously unbalanced;
2. The serious imbalance between the technology Internet industry and other sectors;
3. The distribution of achievements within the same industry is seriously unbalanced, and the gap between rich and poor is divided.
That is to say, from the most macro global perspective, the economic and trade relations between countries are seriously unbalanced, the financial countries have a huge profit, the industrial countries distribute according to their work, and the resource countries sell their ancestral products at a low price, while the failed countries lose everything;
The vision is narrowed from the world to the country (economy), and the same is true within each economy. Industries such as science and technology, finance and the Internet, which hold the power of distribution during the globalization period, are rich and earn a lot of money, while the industrial sector is probably making money and suffering. As for other sunset industries, marginal regions and marginal industries, they will inevitably decline.
However, Rao is rich in the Internet industry, and not everyone gets rich overnight; Similarly, the traditional sunset industry is not everyone bankrupt. There are still some entities that are old and have new flowers. They are rejuvenated through intensive adjustment, absorption and reorganization. Of course, the cost may be that other entities speed up “dying to death”.
We say that such imbalance is in itself the “other side” of rapid development. When we cried out that “the world is flat”, it was the time when globalization came to a climax, and in fact, it was the time when (this round) globalization came to an end. “The world is flat” has brought about the beautiful imagination of the “global village”, as if the distance between people has never been greater, especially with the development of information network technology. International social media has made nationality, region, national boundaries, and even language and culture itself no longer an obstacle between people. It seems that the beautiful world of love and affection between people can continue to develop in this atmosphere, and even reach the great harmony.
This is the cornerstone of the “universal value” that was once widely recognized by public opinion. People all over the world seem to think that globalization will always accelerate its development and advance at an accelerated pace until “the world is flat” is truly achieved. Then the form of a deeply integrated human society must be universal, and this universal organizational paradigm is the western society. The “universal value” extracted from the western society will naturally come true.
However, such an economic foundation no longer exists. If Trump launches a trade war, it is just a “red neck” irrational, brain pumping, unexpected black swan in the United States; So whether it is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, or the collective deviation (separation) of the Gulf countries from the US diplomatic position since this year, it means that the foundation of globalization is “precarious”. The so-called “return to normal” since Biden “put things right” is just a reflection of the past; Not to mention that recently, with the decline of the Russian Ukrainian conflict, the US European conflict covered by the Russian Western conflict in the first half of the year is resurfacing.
The European Union accused the United States of trying to empty its industry with a package of policies such as “370 billion dollars of investment subsidies for new energy industries” in the Inflation Reduction Act, while the United States ignored them.
In 2020, the article “The United States has a more ruthless way than unlimited printing of money to completely contain China” was published. According to the situation at that time and the cutting-edge research, it was believed that the United States would deeply learn the operation mode of China’s industrial policy and take the way of “reducing costs with subsidies” as its “reindustrialization” policy, which would eventually lead to the decoupling and restructuring of the international financial system.
In the first half of the year, we looked forward to the decoupling of globalization, and concluded with the long-term prospects of the three supply chain systems of “America, Europe and Asia” (see The Unequal World Will eventually Go “Uncoupling”). At that time, it was far too early. At that time, we were still in the oil industry financial system. In the international macro identity, the United States, as the only creator of net demand and the supplier of net debt in the world, formed one side of the equation in the form of its current account deficit, while the other side of the equation was the two basic dollar cycles, the oil dollar cycle and the manufacturing commodity dollar cycle.
However, the industrial chain hub of the global supply chain and the world factory are both China, especially the huge impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on global industrial production. Only China has achieved an orderly recovery of industrial production by establishing a governance system that meets the production needs of social organizations, which makes China’s huge strength show no doubt, while the United States has provided a currency far beyond the current account deficit, Instead, it creates greater instability for the international system.
In the same way, although Europe has declined, its power has not really disappeared, and the transfer of industries is not available overnight. If we plan to use financial means and external crisis as political pressure to empty European industries to revive manufacturing, it will inevitably cause European crisis response. This may be unexpected for the Biden administration. After all, you can’t assume that you can clear your opponents at the gambling table.
In the original oil system, the United States had a considerable say, but the outbreak of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia and the full pressure exerted on Russia by the Western system resulted in all countries suddenly having bargaining chips with the United States. Even in Venezuela in the backyard of the United States and Iran, which has been involved in disputes for many years, the Biden government also made a gesture of negotiation and great concession. But can these historical problems really be solved quickly? I’m afraid I can only press the gourd to float the ladle.
The decline in the intensity of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine alone and the efforts of the United States to re industrialize in the form of industrial subsidies have rapidly dimmed the reflection of “Western solidarity” since Biden came to power, especially since the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. If we accelerate the reshaping of the international circular system focusing on industrial chain control, supply chain security and value chain reconstruction, then our return to the 19th century will not be just an empty talk.
This is not the author’s brainpower or sensationalism, because the United States is not only targeting Europe, but also “allies” in the Asia Pacific region, especially Taiwan. As the US side controls 70% of the shares of TSMC, and the Taiwan authorities are politically “depopulated”, the political and economic means can not be stopped, so there are TSMC 3nm and 5nm production lines that are directly arranged to be moved to Arizona.
However, emerging countries have repeatedly fought against “international practices” this year, not for a day or two. It seems to be rejecting the consistent “economic science”, “financial common sense” and “international practice”, but it is actually self insurance. We will see that with the further expansion of the BRICS Organization and the further adjustment of the position of the Gulf countries, the establishment of the direct economic, trade and financial relations between emerging countries and resource countries, the globalization with the West as the center of political, economic and military culture, and the Western civilization as the value order as a cultural phenomenon, will undergo profound changes.
The ebb of neo liberalism and the “localization” of the order of civilization
Then, while the material foundation of the world is moving towards great changes, the cultural system and values will be profoundly reconstructed. Many social thoughts, values and cognition that we are accustomed to will be reconstructed in this process. It seems that the glory of “universal value” is no longer shining. In essence, it is that the liberal world that shapes universal value has lost the ability to export paradigms to the outside world, and its legitimacy has declined, even in the marginal areas of the original world.
Take the color revolution for example. Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, people began to understand the peaceful evolution and the influence of ideas on regime change. The “Arab Spring” made American liberals actively practice the method of starting from ideas for the first time. So that all non western countries were extremely careful about this, and the United States also added the words “do not seek to change the regime of XX countries” in the diplomatic dialogue. These are just the embodiment of the “aggressiveness” of American values.
When talking about modernity, the author once quoted a sentence from Li Huaiyin, that is, “the concept system of modernization was invented by western countries to fool non western countries”. Here we must use the most basic principles of Marxism to understand that ? everything is universally connected, ? the economic base determines the superstructure, and the superstructure reacts on the economic base.
The international circulation system with the United States and the West as the center gave birth to the international order with the United States and the West as the center. This order is the stable state required by the production, consumption and tidal movement of this circulation system, and the riverbed required by this circulation movement. Therefore, this circulation system itself gives birth to the current “international values”, “international cultural trends” and “internationality”.
In today’s era, there are many cultural phenomena. If we use logical thinking to find that these cultural phenomena themselves do not conform to the logic of culture, we can even say that they are extremely absurd, because they conform to the deeper logic of power.
At the recent World Cup in Qatar, a large number of “social issues” appeared around the World Cup. Many issues seemed to be “promoting a better world”, such as the massive labor casualties caused by the construction of the World Cup. In this regard, the author believes that this is certainly a crime committed by international capitalism and even the feudal capitalism of the Gulf countries; At the same time, it was also reported that, for example, Iranian players did not sing the national anthem, claiming rights for domestic women; Seeing German players covering their mouths, seeing British players wearing rainbow armbands, etc. claiming rights for the “diversified group of others”, many media generated a vigorous sense of moral superiority when reporting, which was similar to seeing their mothers.
However, in the Middle East, the most profound feeling of the people of the Gulf States that “we (Arabs) have been bullied” is the Palestinian question. When the audience raised banners and sang a chorus for the “oppressed Palestinian people”, the media stopped speaking, and this media order has a high degree of international consistency.
Is it the Palestinian people who do not conform to the morality of contemporary “international culture and values”? Not at all. Probably, there is only one choice between the media and the Palestinian people.
Let’s take the phenomenon of asserting rights as another example. We can see that the debate on gender power/rights is in full swing in Cyberspace (microblog, WeChat, Tiktok, Little Red Book). The mainstream was “bullied women” two years ago, but now it has become “magic men fighting magic women”. Articles before Meditation also introduced the relevant history of neighboring countries in East Asia. In fact, from a rational point of view, it is harmful to unilaterally claim rights. This means that individuals escape or even give up their obligations, pursue rights absolutely, and even try to establish unequal social relations (social relations of power structure).
However, this phenomenon seems to be getting worse and worse. A large number of people have changed from enthusiastic people to “happy people” and from “happy people” to “active accelerators”, because the basic cycle of the world is wrong. The current world view held by human society is an atomized individual and an economic rational person. Its essence is to encourage individuals to discharge negative externalities to the society (that is, the benefits belong to me, the costs, burdens and difficulties belong to you, parents, wives and husbands, the units, schools and the country). When the negative externalities are discharged to a significant extent, there will inevitably be an acceleration phenomenon.
This negative externality emissions spread to every person and every organization. Without discussing foreign countries, even in China, purchasing labor instead of employment and dispatching labor instead of labor relations are also popular in grass-roots organizations and state-owned enterprises. In the fight against the epidemic, the author learned that the boredom of the grass-roots level is partly related to it. After all, I have done hard work, but I have nothing to do with the praise and glory of political execution. What we need, expect, and imagine is that the “Leviathan”, like a finger, cannot be built in this structure of “the same share but different rights”.
In the final analysis, the contemporary world is not a “peaceful, pure and beautiful” world, and it is impossible for the contemporary world to build such a world according to the international order centered on the United States. Whether we are building a new form of human civilization, building a community with a shared future for mankind, or realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and practicing Chinese path to modernization, we need to explore a new path in terms of economic foundation, cultural awareness, and institutional composition. These beneficial explorations are our powerful weapons against neo classical liberalism. After all, “the criticism on the lips is shallow, and we absolutely know that this matter should be practiced”.
P. S, by the way, no matter whether you have seriously studied physics in high school or not, the author believes that thermodynamics should be seriously respected by every “scholar” in the cyber age. After all, those uncles and aunts of social people who have not read much in the eyes of our younger generation but are “very powerful”, in fact, their thinking method of “no edge, no skill” is consistent with thermodynamics. The reason why “chanting scriptures” becomes stupid is that it is completely inconsistent with the laws of thermodynamics to break and pull in the awkward scriptures. It would be better if we had more knowledge of the evolution of dynamics.