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On August 22, the US and ROK armed forces launched the largest joint military exercise since 2018.
According to Western media reports, the purpose of the US ROK military exercise is to “cope with the escalating nuclear threat from the DPRK and the challenges posed by China”.
Since the exercise will continue until September 1, it is obvious that the DPRK ROK relations and the situation on the peninsula will be continuously impacted in these 10 days.
According to Western media, the resumption of large-scale joint military exercises between the United States and the ROK highlights the failure of the previous efforts of the United States and the ROK to promote Pyongyang to give up the development of nuclear weapons through diplomatic means.
In this way, South Korea’s military needs or military dependence on the United States will be further deepened.
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Because of the military alliance between the United States and the ROK, they have held various joint military exercises regularly for a long time. Although the United States and the ROK claim that “the exercise activities are defensive in nature”, people with insight can see the offensive color of the exercise.
The reason why Pyongyang expressed strong protest against the US ROK military exercises is that these exercises seem to be a rehearsal of how to attack the DPRK.
One of the main purposes of this exercise, named “freedom shield of B”, is to rebuild the US ROK alliance and consolidate the common defense structure after more than four years of stagnation.
The joint military exercise launched on August 22 was a major move in military defense since Yin Xiyue took office.
This joint military exercise, called “Ulchi freedom shield”, will be attended by tens of thousands of officers and men from the US military and the ROK military in terms of numbers, and will be conducted by the three services of the sea, land and air. In addition, this exercise also includes live ammunition exercises.
Some details of the exercise have not been disclosed at present, but according to South Korean media, the weapon platforms participating in the exercise include fighter planes, warships and armored vehicles.
The exercise consists of two phases.
In the first stage, the exercise of “turning into the wartime system and repelling the Korean attack” and defending the capital circle will be implemented; In the second stage, we will focus on practicing counter offensive and counter offensive operations to ensure the security of the capital circle.
Prior to this, the ROK and the United States conducted a four-day crisis management exercise starting from the 16th of this month, which is regarded as a preparatory exercise for this joint exercise.
It is said that this exercise will reflect the new changes in the form of war in the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, such as drone attacks and network warfare. It will also assume that the enemy attacks major industrial facilities such as South Korean ports, airports, semiconductor factories, and national key facilities. It will focus on the implementation of protection, recovery, and reconstruction exercises with the participation of the people, officials, military, and police.
The second stage of the exercise will be conducted simultaneously with the command post exercise (CPX) using computer simulation and the joint field mobility training (FTX) based on the actual combat level of each echelon and function.
Specifically, there were 13 exercises, including the scientific combat joint exercise (brigade level), the elimination of weapons of mass destruction joint exercise (battalion level), and the special war exchange joint exercise (small-scale). Therefore, the joint exercises at the regiment level and above that have been suspended by the ROK and the United States since 2018 will be restarted.
In addition, the ROK and the United States will also carry out an assessment of the full operational capability (FOC) of the future joint command in accordance with the “conditional transfer of wartime operational command plan”.
From the perspective of the exercise, it will include the simulation of joint simulated attacks, the enhancement of front-line forces, and the security of weapons of mass destruction. It can be seen that the pertinence is very strong. It is very clear to whom the content related to “weapons of mass destruction” is directed. Moreover, the exercise will certainly bring greater antagonism to the peninsula.
In addition to the above-mentioned special places, this exercise will also practice using drones to monitor the battlefield in real time and obtain first-hand data, which is a response to the new development of war in the Russian Ukrainian military conflict. And this kind of reaction will probably be put into the actual combat of the US military in the future.
This time, the US and ROK armed forces also announced that they would strengthen their surveillance and alert posture against the DPRK “in order to deal with the provocations such as missiles that the DPRK may launch during the joint exercise”. The ROK government and military plan to master the cross departmental crisis management capability and joint operation support process through this joint exercise, so as to improve the country’s overall war execution capability in the face of an all-out war.
On the 22nd, President Yoon sik Yue of the Republic of Korea also presided over the “b-support state conference” at the presidential palace in Longshan, Seoul, to check the emergency logistics exercise – “b-support exercise” launched on the same day. Yin Xiyue said that the B-branch exercise will become the starting point for the government to reorganize the emergency response situation under the new changes in the form of war.
From this sentence, we can see the importance that the Yin Xiyue government attaches to the South Korean US military exercise.
Yin Xiyue said that the form of war today is completely different from that in the past. In order to weaken the other side’s combat execution capability, it will carry out network attacks on its national information infrastructure, attack on its pillar industrial facilities such as ports, airports, nuclear power plants, and other sophisticated industrial facilities such as semiconductor factories and the supply chain of major raw materials.
Yin Xiyue said that an organic connection should be formed between the “B support exercise” and the “freedom shield” of the ROK US joint military exercise.
The B-branch exercise is an emergency logistics exercise implemented by the Korean government. It was attended by more than 480000 people from more than 4000 institutions, including the central government, administrative organs and public institutions at and above the city, county and district levels, and key pipeline units. The exercise was carried out in conjunction with the ROK US joint military exercise “B support free shield” (UFS).
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There is no doubt that the scale and intensity of the ROK US joint military exercise, as well as its pertinence to the DPRK, are stronger than before.
In fact, after taking office, the government of Yin Xiyue of the Republic of Korea adopted a tougher attitude towards the DPRK than the previous government, and directly defined the DPRK as an “enemy”.
Earlier, on the 17th, Yin Xiyue also proposed at the ceremony to celebrate the end of World War II and the 77th anniversary of the restoration of the Korean peninsula that as long as the DPRK is willing to denuclearize, it will ensure “sustainable peace on the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia and the world”, and the ROK will be willing to provide a series of assistance such as food production, energy infrastructure, port modernization, medical facilities and financial investment.
He called it a “bold idea”.
In response, the DPRK made a stern counterattack.
Kim woo Jung, deputy director of the Central Committee of the workers’ Party of Korea, delivered a speech, saying that the “bold idea” of the DPRK’s “denuclearization for investment” was a “daydream”.
At the same time, Kim and Zheng also criticized the ROK for “talking about ‘bold ideas’ today and conducting military exercises against the North tomorrow.”.
Because, just one day before Yin Xiyue put forward the so-called “bold idea”, the South Korean military announced the news of the South Korean US joint military exercise.
On the day of the military exercise, the North Korean media “between our nations” issued a document saying that while conducting the South Korean US joint military exercise, the act of extending a helping hand to the DPRK with economic aid as a bait is not only not “bold thinking”, but also a “two-sided tactic” of threat or ridicule. If it persists, the ROK will sooner or later face a greater threat.
On the 17th, the DPRK conducted a weapon test firing at the “Jinxing bridge” in Anzhou City, Pingan South Road.
Unlike the previous missile test launches after the start of military exercises, this test launch took place before the formal military exercises between the ROK and the United States. It is considered to be a signal of the seriousness of the situation.
The situation on the peninsula is volatile, and many people in the ROK are also highly dissatisfied with the “unprecedented scale” of the ROK US joint military exercise.
On the day of the start of the military exercise, a number of non-governmental organizations such as the “founder of peaceful reunification” of the Republic of Korea and the “615 Joint Declaration” of the Republic of Korea held protests, calling for the suspension of the joint military exercise between the Republic of Korea and the United States.
The “pioneer of peaceful reunification” group stated that the ROK US military exercise may intensify the military confrontation between the ROK, the DPRK and the United States, aggravate the tension on the Korean Peninsula, and is not conducive to the process of peace and denuclearization on the peninsula.
The South Committee for the implementation of the June 15 joint declaration said that the South Korean government described the South Korean US joint military exercise, which was once reduced or cancelled due to the COVID-19 epidemic, as “normalization” and “annual defensive exercise”. However, the actual military exercise included such offensive mobile training contents as joint attack helicopter shooting exercise and joint maritime alert combat exercise. During this military exercise, the ROK actually carried out the wartime national mobilization exercise. This behavior is not only not conducive to improving the ROK DPRK relations, but also regards the other side as the enemy and intensifies the atmosphere of military confrontation.
“People for peace and reunification” pointed out that although the ROK and US authorities conducted large-scale exercises under the pretext of responding to the DPRK nuclear missile threat, the ROK US war exercises were the most aggressive means of the US hostile policy towards the DPRK, and demanded that the ROK and the United States immediately suspend the relevant exercises.
On August 13, an anti American rally broke out in the center of Seoul, South Korea. According to the estimation of the South Korean police, at least 6000 people participated in the rally on that day. The rally held balloons or banners such as “against war exercises” and “against the United States” to demand that the planned South Korean US joint military exercise be suspended and that “the South Korean US alliance be dissolved and the US troops stationed in South Korea be withdrawn”.
In addition, some analysts pointed out that in addition to dealing with the DPRK, the United States also hopes to draw the ROK into its own small circle through this military exercise, and hopes that the ROK can promise to play a role against China when the situation around Taiwan deteriorates.
Last week, the South Korean military said that the procedures for the South Korean government to transfer the military land occupied by the “THAAD” anti missile system to the US military are expected to be completed in mid September.
At present, the “THAAD” base of the US military is used by the South Korean military, and the South Korean side must transfer it to the US military. According to the provisions of the agreement on the status of the US forces in the ROK, the US side shall bear the costs of the launching, operation and maintenance of Sade. The South Korean side is responsible for providing the land parcel, water and electricity and other supporting facilities of the base.
Sade base covers a total area of about 1.48 million square meters. The first parcel of land transferred by South Korea in April 2017 covers an area of 32777900 square meters, and the second parcel has not been transferred so far. The second land parcel disclosed by the Ministry of defense of the Republic of Korea in 2017 was about 370000 square meters, and the two cases totaled about 700000 square meters.
At present, due to the opposition of “anti Sa” groups and local residents, the US military relies on helicopter air transportation for the fuel and other supplies needed for the transportation of troops and radar operation. Ground access has increased from two times a week under the former government to five times a week at present. The current government plans to increase the number of ground traffic to seven times a week, so as to realize unrestricted ground traffic.
The South Korean side has repeatedly said that the government is working hard to speed up the restoration of normal operation of the THAAD anti missile system, and has even set the goal of achieving normal operation around the end of August.
The various actions of the ROK instigated by the US side are bringing more and more uncertainties to the situation in Northeast Asia.
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As for why the United States and the ROK have resumed large-scale joint military exercises after four years, Wang Junsheng, director of the peripheral Strategy Research Office of the Asia Pacific and Global Strategy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that this has much to do with the substantial change of the policy of the former government toward the DPRK after the Yin Xiyue government took office.
Wang Junsheng believes that although Yin Xiyue’s government has previously issued various signals, such as “bold vision”, COVID-19 assistance, economic and trade, etc., the frequent joint military exercises between the United States and the ROK, the United States, Japan and the ROK, especially this one, which is not only large-scale, but also the addition of F-35 and other offensive weapons, reveal that its policy toward the DPRK is still based on pressure and wants to change the behavior of the DPRK through high-intensity pressure.
In fact, this is also the high-pressure policy that the United States has been adhering to toward the DPRK in recent years, and the Biden administration is also the same. In Washington’s view, on the issue of North Korea, pressure can be exerted to change its behavior.
On the one hand, in its foreign policy, the United States has always been superstitious about strength as the backing; On the other hand, due to the sanctions of the United Nations Security Council, the epidemic, natural disasters and other factors, military exercises are a pressure tool that Washington will not give up.
In addition, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the competition between the United States and China, the United States is now increasingly playing the relevant issues on the Korean Peninsula as a card to gain its strategic interests in the region. This can be seen from the fact that the US media and others have actively linked this military exercise with the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
Wang Junsheng believes that due to the policy of dialogue and reconciliation towards the DPRK pursued by the Moon Jae-in government and the impact of the epidemic, the large-scale joint military exercises between the United States and the ROK were suspended for a time, and now the resumption is indeed a little abrupt, so we need to find an excuse. This excuse is that “the DPRK may conduct its seventh nuclear test”. Therefore, it is a bit far fetched to increase the deterrence against the DPRK through military exercises.
In fact, no matter whether the DPRK is going to conduct a nuclear test or not, the United States and the ROK will conduct such large-scale joint military exercises. Moreover, all the relevant news that we have seen at present is transmitted by the United States, and its authenticity is unknown.
In Wang Junsheng’s view, its impact on the situation on the peninsula is undoubtedly destructive. Blindly showing strength will inevitably lead to further escalation of the situation, increase mutual suspicion between the two sides on the peninsula, and enter a new vicious circle. The final result is that the security interests of both sides on the peninsula are damaged, and the United States continues to reap geopolitical benefits from it.
In fact, some experts on international issues have long pointed out that this kind of institutionalized and institutionalized military exercise is not for the sake of peace and stability on the peninsula, or even for the sake of greater security of the ROK. The “security paradox” can only be solved by enhancing mutual trust. Blindly strengthening the US ROK joint military exercises can only make the existing “security dilemma” spiral worse.
However, the Conservatives in South Korea obviously still have misconceptions about enhancing their “sense of security” through military exercises. For example, the editorial of South Korea’s “world daily” on the 22nd said that the second freedom shield is of great significance to the “normalization” of the ROK US joint exercise “in an abnormal state” since 2018. The army is an organization preparing for actual combat, and the ROK US joint military exercise “should no longer be a card for negotiations with the DPRK”. It is no exaggeration to say that the suspension of actual combat exercises is an act of “undermining security”, which not only undermines the ROK US alliance, but also weakens the existing foundation of the US forces stationed in the ROK.
In this regard, Wang Junsheng said that past experience has proved time and again that the need to exert pressure through such joint military exercises is precisely one of the reasons why the conservative government has encountered difficulties in its policy toward the DPRK. Instead of enhancing the so-called “sense of security” of the ROK, it has fallen into new security concerns and tension on the peninsula.
China has always held a clear opposition to such military exercises, mainly because it has become a major obstacle to the peaceful settlement of the Peninsula issue.