Author: falsetto Source: falsetto (official account ID: lxlong20) has been authorized to reprint
In recent days, I have seen a very abrupt news: a border conflict has erupted between Iran and Afghanistan.
01 Sudden dry fight
According to news reports, on May 27th, there was a conflict between the Iranian border army and Afghan Taliban border soldiers in the border area, resulting in the deaths of two Iranian border soldiers and one Taliban soldier, as well as injuries to civilians.
Although Iranian media claimed that after the conflict, both sides had reached an understanding and dispatched a joint investigation team to the conflict area for further investigation. But for the melon eating crowd, it still feels inexplicable.
On the one hand, both Iran and Afghanistan are facing pressure from the United States. Iran has been heavily sanctioned by the United States to this day, to the point of living in poverty while holding onto its vast oil reserves; The Taliban government in Afghanistan has not even received recognition from the international community. At the level of confronting the United States, Iran and Afghanistan share common themes. So in the eyes of some melon eaters, the enemy of the enemy is a friend. According to this logic, there is no reason for a conflict between Iran and Afghanistan at least at this stage.
On the other hand, Iran and the Taliban have also shown some signs of friendliness. For example, recently there were rumors in the melon eating industry that Iran and Afghanistan would work together to deal with Israel. Let’s say Iran hosted the 51st Asian Clearing Union (ACU) Summit a few days ago to try to build its own international trading system and “de dollarize”; Afghanistan, although not a member of the ACU, also sent representatives to support the event.
So the sudden confrontation between the two countries caught the melon eating industry off guard. As anti American hardliners, the two countries are not ambiguous in their verbal warfare.
On the Afghan side, Hamid Horasani, one of the Taliban commanders and officials, released a video targeting Iran, stating: “If the Emirs and elders allow holy war, we will capture Tehran in a few days. Iran has no friends and is unstable internally, and we will soon be able to conquer Iran
Of course, in terms of verbal warfare, Iran is not weak either. Iranian journalist Abdullah Ghanji criticized the Taliban on social media: “Today, Iran and the Taliban are like stones and glass. If they collide, the results will be very clear
Both sides are engaged in a joint investigation while engaging in a verbal battle; The key is that no one can guarantee that they will no longer fight and can coexist peacefully in the future.
The trigger for this round of conflict between Iran and Afghanistan stems from a neglected issue, the water conflict.
In fact, with the development of society, water resource conflicts have become increasingly acute. For example, China’s two neighboring countries, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, have been in conflict over water resources for a long time. When the two countries were still members of the Soviet Union, they began to conflict; After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, they all joined the Central Security Organization and continued the conflict; After joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, there are still conflicts.
02 fuse
Iran and Afghanistan can be considered millennium old neighbors, with a border line of 921 kilometers (572 miles) between the two. This line mainly originated from Tsarist Russia and the British Empire. At that time, the two major hooligans divided their spheres of influence in Central Asia and created a border line that was in line with their interests.
Due to the complex terrain and extremely poor conditions in the area, the two major hooligans in Britain and Russia did not accurately draw the boundary line at that time, but rather made a vague idea. But for the local people, it involves real livelihood issues.
Iran and Afghanistan are both mountainous countries with natural water shortages. However, at the border between Iran’s Sistan Baluchistan Province and Afghanistan’s Nimruz Province, there is an international river called the Helmand River that crosses between the two countries.
By comparing with the figure below, you can see a rough idea.
The upper reaches of the Helmand River are in Afghanistan, and the lower reaches are in Iran (with dozens of kilometers remaining as the boundary river).
Under normal circumstances, if the two countries negotiate friendly and use water sources reasonably, it can increase mutual friendship. There are two main reasons why friendly negotiations did not occur:
Reason 1: The river flow is limited, and both countries lack water. In general, rivers have a larger downstream water volume, while the Helmand River, as a mountainous inland river, has the opposite trend, with a smaller downstream water volume.
Reason 2: The clerical groups in Iran and the Taliban in Afghanistan are both angry and prone to explosion if they disagree; And they all have the courage to ‘take action if you don’t believe in life or death’.
Of course, in history, the two countries have indeed negotiated. As early as 1973, Iran and Afghanistan signed an agreement on the use of water sources for the Helmand River, and even made it clear in black and white that Afghanistan supplied Iran with 26 cubic meters of water per second.
But what is the background of 1973, everyone? At that time, Afghanistan had not been invaded by the Soviet Union, and was still trying to secularization. Many modern elements could be seen on the streets; At that time, Iran had not yet broken out of the Islamic revolution, but was also engaged in secularization. It was the most enlightened country in the Middle East.
At that time, both Iran and Afghanistan focused on infrastructure construction and economic development, and were not warlike. In the following decades, the situation suddenly changed, Afghanistan was repeatedly ravaged by the Soviet Union and the United States, and Iran was also blocked and sanctioned by the United States after the Islamic Revolution. Both countries abandoned the original secularization line and returned to the traditional model of Caesaropapism, becoming tough and belligerent.
After the United States withdrew from Afghanistan and the Taliban regained power, they also devoted some of their energy to improving people’s livelihoods in order to prove their strength. To solve the water shortage problem in southern Afghanistan, the Taliban rolled up their sleeves and built several dams on the Herman River, intercepting limited water in Afghanistan without saying a word.
In this way, Iran is in dire straits. You should know that Sistan Baluchistan Province was originally short of water and poor, but now it has been affected by Afghanistan, making it even harder to drink water.
In order to exert pressure on Afghanistan, President of Iran’s President Lexi even went out in person to ask the Iranian Embassy in Afghanistan to inform the Taliban that if the gates are not opened again, Iran will expel all Afghan refugees in its territory (in addition, many people fled to Iran during the unrest in Afghanistan).
The Afghan Taliban have started to argue, expressing their sincerity in solving the problem while also complaining that they have been experiencing years of drought and water scarcity, which is really beyond their ability. Attempting to deceive Iran through collusion and deception.
But other issues can be fooled, as water scarcity can be a fatal problem. So the Iranian ambassador immediately stepped forward and said that tens of millions of cubic meters of water were wasted due to unreasonable water conservancy construction in Afghanistan, resulting in Iran’s water shortage dilemma.
Ata didn’t want to hear it, what does Iran mean? Do you look down on our high-tech projects (building dams is indeed a difficult technical task for Ata today)? Defamation of Ata’s construction achievements?
Two angry people are negotiating together, and when you come and I go, everyone feels like they can’t hold their breath. Why not switch guns and engage in a duel. So the border conflict broke out.
Fortunately, at this stage, the two are only irritable and not really ready to engage in war. After both sides suffered casualties, they stopped firing and resumed negotiations. As for whether it will be switched to gunfire battles in the future, no one can say for sure.
There is a very interesting episode in the war of words between Iran and Afghanistan. Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shachin said, “Iran is playing a cat and mouse game with the United States, but in reality they are united and they are birds of a feather. It means that Iran and the United States are colluding and working together. Although the melon eating industry is very skeptical of this statement, after all, Iran and the United States have been fighting for decades (probably Iran itself has been laughed at); But when the Taliban, who started as an anti American, accuses the anti American countries Iran and the United States of colluding, it means that Afghanistan and Iran actually have other contradictions.
Essentially, between Iran and Afghanistan, water sources are just the trigger.
Behind this fuse, at least three major contradictions lurk.
03 Historical Contradictions
Firstly, there are historical contradictions.
Afghanistan has been one of the most important strategic places to the west of the the Himalayas since ancient times. Whoever occupies Afghanistan will be stuck in the throat of South Asia, the Middle East and Central Asia.
From the perspective of the South Asian continent, the invaders of thousands of years, including Aryans, Persians, Greeks, Turks, and Arabs, all came from the Khyber Pass in the Hindu Kush Mountains.
The Khyber Pass entered Pakistan from Afghanistan. That is to say, all the aggressors from India and Pakistan in history came from Afghanistan.
From the perspective of the Middle East, conquerors from the East, such as the Aryans and Turks, first conquered the Iranian Plateau westward from Afghanistan and then attacked westward.
Türkiye’s pan Turkism is actually an example of the Turks’ conquest of the Middle East from Afghanistan.
So from the perspective of Iran, many invaders in history have used Afghanistan as a springboard to attack Iran.
From the perspective of Central Asia, the conquerors from the south, such as Persians and Arabs, were mainly led by Afghanistan. So from the perspective of Afghanistan, the aggressors in the Middle East are all attacking Afghanistan from Iran.
After a long period of sedimentation, many historical contradictions have accumulated between the two countries, and they often look at each other with colored glasses, lacking sufficient trust.
Because Afghanistan is so important, in modern history——
Tsarist Russia and the British Empire, in order to compete fiercely for Afghanistan, opened the prelude to the tomb of the Afghan Empire.
In the end, the Tsarist Russia and the British Empire disintegrated separately and were unable to conquer Afghanistan.
There is a manga reflecting the 19th century that describes Afghanistan sandwiched between the Tsarist Empire and the British Empire:
During the peak period of the Soviet Union’s attack on Afghanistan, they hoped to drink horses from the Indian Ocean and be buried in the imperial cemetery as well. From Russia to the Soviet Union, Mrs. East Slavic conquered a vast territory, but remained helpless towards Afghanistan.
It has been more than 20 years since the United States launched the Afghanistan War in 2001, and it still leaves in a gloomy state, becoming the latest loser in the Imperial Cemetery.
After every empire leaves, it leaves a mess for Afghanistan.
The Taliban’s ability to take root in Afghanistan stems from its three main propositions:
1? Revitalizing ancient ethnic cultures
2? Spread universal religious values
3? Establishing a pure Islamic regime
The latter two, familiar to the melon eating masses, are the common pursuit of all fundamentalists; The key is the first point. The so-called rejuvenation of national culture is actually proposed for Pashtuns people.
04 Cultural Contradictions
Among Afghanistan’s neighboring countries, the most important neighbor is Pakistan, and the second most important neighbor is Iran.
The reason why Pakistan is the most important is that the main ethnic group in Afghanistan is Pashtuns. The Taliban’s goal of reviving Pashtun culture is actually to establish their own cultural confidence.
How many Pashtuns are there? The specific figures are not clear. Because the area is really chaotic, living today and dying tomorrow, it’s impossible to count. Many places are too poor to eat and have no energy to count. There are still many places that focus on herding sheep in the mountains and don’t have the heart to count.
According to public information, there are an estimated 45 to 60 million people.
These Pashtuns are mainly distributed in Afghanistan and Pakistan: they are the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan (about 55% of the total population of Afghanistan), accounting for about one-third of the total population of Pashtuns; The second largest ethnic group in Pakistan (accounting for about 16% of the total population of Pakistan), accounting for about two-thirds of the total population of Pashtuns. This set of data precisely indicates that Pakistan is the most important neighboring country of Afghanistan.
Although there are more Pashtuns in Pakistan than in Afghanistan, Pashtuns will not deliberately pursue the Pashtuns’ cultural renaissance, because Pashtuns are not the largest ethnic group in Pakistan.
But Iran’s Persian culture has a great influence on Pashtuns people.
The reason why Iran is the second most important neighboring country of Afghanistan is because the Persian Empire had a profound impact on Afghanistan during its strong years. Afghanistan was incorporated into Persia as early as during the reign of Emperor Cyrus the Great (before the First Emperor unified China). In traditional Afghan culture, Persian factors are ubiquitous. Take a look at two examples.
For example, the Pashtuns language belongs to the East Iranian branch.
Example 2: The Taliban originated from Persian, a student. This student can be understood as a guard of fundamentalists.
To restore the ancient Pashtun culture, the Taliban must draw a clear line with Iran to avoid giving the impression that Pashtun culture is a branch of Persian culture. This is the cultural contradiction between Afghanistan and Iran.
05 Religion and Reality
The third major contradiction is religious contradiction.
The Taliban advocates the dissemination of universal religious values. But the Taliban belong to the Sunni faction and are a fierce opponent of Shia Iran, which has led to many conflicts between the two sides. For example, in 1996, after the Taliban first took power in Afghanistan, Iran refused to recognize its legitimacy and supported the main opposition Northern Alliance in Afghanistan at that time. The Taliban retaliated against Iran for this, and both sides almost fought fiercely.
In history, the conflict between Sunni and Shia factions has lasted for thousands of years.
Compared to historical and cultural conflicts, religious conflicts are more difficult to resolve. When the two countries face direct threats from a common enemy, such as when the United States is entrenched in Afghanistan, these contradictions can lurk. After the United States withdraws from Afghanistan, the direct strategic threat has been lifted, and those contradictions will naturally emerge again.
Due to historical, cultural, and religious conflicts, there is a lack of sufficient trust between Iran and Afghanistan. These distrust is reflected in reality, leading to both sides finding ways to contain each other. In Afghanistan, the Taliban does not cover up everything, and ethnic minorities such as Tajikistan in the north often advocate for independence.
Now Iran still supports the Hazaras, a Shiite minority in Afghanistan, which makes the Taliban very angry. The Taliban’s construction of a dam on the Helmand River is also suspected of targeting Iran.
In addition, both countries have poor economies and need to shift internal conflicts.
The combination of various factors has led to a seemingly abrupt border conflict between the two countries, but it is not at all sudden.