After half a century of development, why hasn’t Japan’s “hydrogen energy society” come yet?

The energy anxiety caused by the current situation has added “fire” to Japan’s efforts to establish a “hydrogen energy society”.

After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed the concept of “hydrogen energy society”. According to relevant analysis, Japan regards hydrogen energy as “a trump card of a decarbonized society” and is ambitious in the field of hydrogen energy, hoping to become “the first hydrogen economy in the world”, enter the “hydrogen energy society” and lead the global market.

Since last year, Japan has accelerated the development, testing and social application of hydrogen energy. The process is developing but also uncertain. The realization of “hydrogen energy society” will be “letting one mountain pass the other”.

On June 29, 2018, at the Toyota yuanmachi factory in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, two employees pushed the Toyota hydrogen fuel cell vehicle Mirai to the next station

(Liu Yun / tr. by Phil Newell)

This article is reprinted from the wechat official account “global magazine” (ID: globalmagazine). The original text was first published on August 16, 2022. The original title was “why has Japan’s” hydrogen energy society “not come after half a century of development?”.

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The development of hydrogen energy has gone through half a century

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Japan’s attention and development of hydrogen energy were far earlier than the idea of “hydrogen energy society”.

In the 1970s, the fast-growing Japanese economy was highly dependent on international oil. However, the outbreak of the oil crisis forced Japan to take a series of energy-saving measures and began to attach importance to new energy. Hydrogen energy was paid attention as a technical route.

In 1973, Japan established the “Hydrogen Energy Association” and issued a series of plans, including the “sunshine plan” from 1974 to 1992, the “Moonlight plan” from 1978 to 1992, the “new sunshine plan” from 1993 to 2002, and the “we-net plan” from 1992 to 2002, involving the research and development of hydrogen production technology, fuel cells and liquefied hydrogen storage.

These programs rely on universities and enterprises to promote the development of organic chemical hydride method, liquefied hydrogen storage method and other technologies. Toyota Motor Company also started the research and development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in 1992.

However, during this period, the focus of Japan’s energy transformation was “nuclear power + liquefied natural gas (LNG)”. The former aimed at energy independence, while the latter was cleaner than coal and oil.

In 2011, the Fukushima nuclear accident shattered Japan’s “nuclear power dream”, and a long-standing black dust appeared in the sky – the emissions of restarting coal-fired power generation. The pressure of energy independence and environmental pollution in Japan followed. The concept of “hydrogen energy society” was born under this background.

The year 2014 is the start year of hydrogen energy utilization in Japan. The “fourth basic plan for secondary energy” published in this year proposed that “hydrogen energy is expected to play a key role in the future secondary energy” and expand the positioning of hydrogen energy to large-scale power generation; In the same year, Japan put forward the “road map of hydrogen energy and fuel cell” and the specific measures and steps to realize the “hydrogen energy society” at the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games; Accordingly, Toyota Motor Company and Honda Motor Company decided to put fuel cell vehicles into the market, and Iwatani industry and JX rikui riishi energy company announced the hydrogen energy price of the hydrogen station.

In 2017, Japan issued the “basic hydrogen energy strategy”, which plans to achieve an annual hydrogen energy output of 300000 tons by 2030, and the cost will be reduced to 30 yen per standard cubic meter (1 yen is about 0.05 yuan); The installed power generation capacity of 1 million kilowatts was realized, and the unit price of power generation was reduced to 17 yen / kwh; The number of hydrogen stations will be expanded to 900, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell buses will be increased to 800000 and 1200 respectively, and the “domestic fuel cell cogeneration system (ene-farm)” will be popularized to 5.3 million households; Develop “hydrogen production from renewable energy”.

The strategy puts forward the “3E + s” principle of realizing “hydrogen energy society” — first, ensure the stable supply of energy. On the premise of safety, realize the low-cost energy supply by improving economic efficiency and maximize the pursuit of environmental suitability. The “basic hydrogen energy strategy” has also become a part of Japan’s “fifth basic energy plan”.

In 2019, Japan also formulated the “hydrogen fuel cell technology development strategy” to promote the research and development of solid polymer fuel cells, solid fuel cells, and hydrogen energy infrastructure.

With “carbon neutralization” becoming a hot topic in the world, Japan will speed up the application of hydrogen energy again. It will be released at the end of 2020 in 2021

The “green growth strategy” of is updated to “2050 carbon neutral green growth strategy”.

The strategy takes hydrogen energy as one of the 14 key development areas, and plans to invest 370 billion yen in the next 10 years to support the hydrogen energy industry; By 2030, the annual supply of hydrogen energy will reach 3 million tons, and by 2050, the annual supply of hydrogen energy will reach 20 million tons; Promote the development of hydrogen energy steelmaking, water electrolysis and other technologies; Build a stable ammonia supply chain, popularize “20% ammonia and 80% coal” mixed combustion power generation by 2030, and realize pure ammonia power generation by 2050. At the same time, it has also introduced various supporting measures such as fiscal taxation, green innovation fund and international cooperation.

The “sixth energy basic plan” issued in 2021 proposes to establish an international hydrogen energy supply chain, promote the application of hydrogen energy in the manufacturing industry and the transformation of production mode, and enhance the social demand for hydrogen energy.

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Gap between reality and goal

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Years of policy support have enabled Japan to go further than other countries in the popularization of “hydrogen energy society”. The most successful case is that the sales volume of ene-farm has increased exponentially in recent years. The price of the equipment has dropped below 1 million yen, about 2 / 3 cheaper than when it was launched in 2009, and the fuselage size has become smaller and easier to install. By the end of 2021, the cumulative sales volume of ene-farm had exceeded 433000 sets, which greatly exceeded the target of “300000 sets by 2030” set in the “basic hydrogen energy strategy” in 2017.

The working principle of ene-farm is to convert natural gas into hydrogen, and the hydrogen reacts with oxygen to supply power and heat for residential buildings. According to the data of Japan’s Department of resources and energy, the energy conversion rate of ene-farm power generation is 40% ~ 55%, and the comprehensive conversion rate of waste heat utilization is 80% ~ 97%, which is much higher than 41% (including the thermal power generation conversion rate of power transmission loss).

The popularity of ene-farm in Japan benefits from government subsidies, but it is also due to the particularity of Japan – most of them are independent houses, which are easy to install; Electricity is more expensive, which can save expenses; Frequent disasters, with post disaster emergency function.

The application of hydrogen energy in other fields is still far from the policy assumption.

For example, the construction progress of the hydrogenation station is not ideal. From the start-up in 2014 to the end of May 2022, a total of 161 hydrogen stations were put into use, including 59 in the “capital circle”, “48 in the Zhongjing circle”, “19 in the Guanxi circle” and 14 in the Kyushu circle, only 4 more than at the end of January 2022. At this rate, Japan can only achieve 1 / 3 of the latest policy target of 1000 hydrogen stations by 2030.

Moreover, the sales of fuel cell vehicles are not ideal. Toyota launched the first generation “Mirai” fuel cell car in 2014. However, due to the high price and lack of infrastructure, the sales volume has been poor. The second generation “Mirai” launched in 2020 caught up with the “carbon neutral” trend, and only in 2021 did it realize the sales of more than 5600 vehicles, accounting for more than half of its accumulated sales. However, it is still far from achieving the goal of 2 million global accumulated sales in 2030.

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These phenomena reflect the defects in the underlying logic and technical route of Japan’s “hydrogen energy society”, which are often covered up by the excellent chemical characteristics of hydrogen energy. Hydrogen energy is a secondary energy, and its location in social application is closer to that of electric energy, which is also a secondary energy, and slightly farther from that of oil and natural gas.

The energy system of the ideal “hydrogen energy society” envisaged by Japan is to replace electric energy with hydrogen energy generated by renewable energy to form a decentralized hydrogen energy storage, transportation and application system, completely changing the existing energy system structure. This kind of substitution is restricted by many objective conditions. Compared with electric energy, it has the problems of large capacity and long-term storage. In some cases, the efficiency may not be better than that of electric energy.

However, there are also some obstacles in replacing oil and natural gas in production and living scenarios with hydrogen energy.

For example, the storage and transportation conditions of hydrogen energy are not as good as those of oil and natural gas, so the technical route of “hydrogen to ammonia” appears; “Grey hydrogen” and “blue hydrogen” have not solved the problem of carbon emission, but have increased the cost out of thin air; The social enthusiasm for “green hydrogen” is positively related to the price of oil and natural gas; Japan lacks the objective conditions for producing “green hydrogen” from new energy, and “green hydrogen” also relies on imports like oil and natural gas.

Therefore, according to the “sixth energy basic plan”, the electric energy generated by hydrogen and ammonia in Japan in 2030 only accounts for 1% of its energy consumption, which is very small. At present, five nuclear power plants in Japan have resumed operation. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on July 14 that “instructions are given to operate up to nine nuclear power plants” to ensure the stable supply of electricity in winter under inflation.

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Continuously expand hydrogen energy application scenarios

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Facing the global “hydrogen heat”, Japan is trying to overcome difficulties and uncertainties and expand hydrogen energy application scenarios that are more in line with the market rules. However, most of the applications are the upgrading of the original natural gas technology, which is still far from the ideal “hydrogen energy society”.

First, develop hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles.

Toyota President Akio Toyoda has repeatedly said: “the enemy is carbon, not an internal combustion engine.” Starting from 2021, Toyota will test hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles by means of rally. The test vehicle is based on the two compartment “corolla”. The chassis is 13 cm above the ground and is equipped with liquid hydrogen. The theoretical range is twice as long as that of the fuel cell vehicle, but the cost is lower.

“In the future, the liquid hydrogen storage tank can be flat and small, and even can be integrated with the chassis, which has more commercial prospects.” Said Akio Toyoda. Hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles can continue to use fuel injection system and turbocharger, which is more in line with the interests of the original automobile supply chain manufacturers. At present, BorgWarner, an American auto parts company, is providing technical support to relevant customers in Japan.

The second is to develop hydrogen energy train, ship and aircraft technology.

East Japan Passenger Railway Corporation (JR East Japan) is developing a hybrid train “hybari” using hydrogen fuel cells and batteries. It has been put into trial operation on the Nam Wu line in March 2022 and is expected to be put into use in 2030 to replace diesel trains on some lines.

Yangma holdings plans to launch a marine hydrogen fuel cell system in 2023.

Mitsui machinery is building a large-scale marine hydrogen fuel engine test facility in Yuye City, Okayama County, which is expected to be completed in June 2023. The facility can generate 20 MPa high-pressure hydrogen and supply 1000 cubic meters per hour.

Kawasaki heavy industries has completed the basic design of the world’s first marine hydrogen fuel boiler and plans to put it into practical use around 2025.

Toshiba is developing the core components of a new generation of electric aircraft, which can be used by medium-sized aircraft carrying dozens of people. The goal is to achieve commercialization by 2030. Its subsidiary Toshiba energy systems has developed a prototype of 2000 kW, which is only 1 / 10 of the size of an ordinary motor with the same power.

Kawasaki heavy industries is developing key components of hydrogen powered aircraft, such as burners and hydrogen storage tanks, and plans to put them into practice in 2040.

The three airports in Kansai will cooperate with Airbus to jointly study the planning and design of airport hydrogen infrastructure.

Third, develop hydrogen energy operation machinery.

Kubota, the largest agricultural machinery manufacturer in Japan, plans to launch small electric tractors in the European market in 2023, and develop medium and large hydrogen fuel cell tractors for Europe and America in 2025.

Yangma holdings plans to launch electric agricultural machinery in 2025 and consider using hydrogen power on medium and large agricultural machinery.

Komatsu will cooperate with Cummins to develop hydrogen fuel cells for mining trucks, with the goal of achieving commercialization by 2030.

Fourth, explore hydrogen power generation technology.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is developing nuclear hydrogen production technology, and plans to launch large-scale turbines that can generate electricity only by hydrogen in 2030. The goal is to achieve sales of 300 billion yen in decarbonization business by 2030. Kawasaki heavy industries plans to start the “ammonia and coal mixed combustion” power generation test in Okinawa shigawa thermal power station in 2026.

The fifth is to test the factory application of hydrogen energy.

In April 2022, Panasonic installed 99 5 kW adjustable power fuel cells at its plant in caozin City, Shiga county. The volume is similar to that of small vending machines, and it is used in conjunction with 570 kW photovoltaic power generation. The goal is to become “the world’s first hydrogen fuel plant driven by renewable energy” and to accumulate “plant energy management system” technology.

Japanese iron and JFE steel are building small-scale hydrogen ironmaking test machines, which are expected to be tested from 2024 to 2025. Kobe Steel is testing the “hydrogen supply control system” in takasha City, Hyogo county to find a way to stably supply hydrogen and reduce waste.

Sixth, build an international hydrogen energy supply chain.

In February this year, Kawasaki heavy industries and iwatai industries completed the liquid hydrogen shipping test – 2 tons of liquid hydrogen converted from Australian lignite. The liquid hydrogen transport ship built by Kawasaki heavy industries traveled a long distance of 9000 kilometers to “hytouch Kobe”, the first liquefied hydrogen loading and unloading base in the world. This is a demonstration project of Japan’s new energy industry technology Comprehensive Development Agency (NEDO), and it is planned to start new verification tests after 2023.

In addition, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has participated in the hydrogen power generation project in Utah, the United States. Mitsui property intends to cooperate with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company of the United Arab Emirates in the transportation of liquid hydrogen. Toyo Engineering also intends to produce “green ammonia” in Indonesia.