This article is reproduced by Niu Danqin (id:bullpiano) with authorization. Author: Niu Danqin
As the saying goes, hit the snake seven inches. This is especially true in international struggles.
Which is the seven inch of G7?
What is the seven inch in Japan?
Therefore, Russia targeted this point hard.
Putin has previously signed a decree that Russia will set up a new company to take over the energy cooperation development project “Sakhalin 2” between Russia and Japan.
This caused great anxiety in Japan. According to Japanese data, 4% of Japan’s imported oil and 8.8% of its imported liquefied natural gas came from Russia in 2021. Among them, almost all liquefied natural gas comes from “Sakhalin 2”.
That is why Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida responded, “we must pay close attention to what kind of contracts (foreign companies) will be required by the decree. We need to communicate with relevant enterprises and think about how to deal with them.”
Before Japan finished thinking, Russia made harsh remarks again.
As for Kishida Fumio’s previous claim that the G7 has reached an agreement to set a ceiling on the price of Russian oil, that is, the current price is generally “higher than this price, it is not allowed to buy”.
Medvedev, who once served as president and Prime Minister of Russia, criticized on social media telegram that if Japan did so, Japan would not get any Russian oil and gas.
Xiaomei, who is now the vice president of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, said this:
Let’s translate these words from Japanese to Russian, which means:
1. The oil on the market will be greatly reduced and the price will rise, and the oil price may reach the astronomical price of more than $300 to $400 per barrel;
2. But at that time, Japan will not have any oil and gas from Russia, nor will it be able to participate in the “Sakhalin 2” oil and gas project.
As a close comrade in arms of Putin, Xiaomei said all the things that Putin felt inconvenient to say for him now.
The two men worked closely together to launch an attack on Japan’s weakness, and the chip was “Sakhalin 2”.
“Sakhalin 2” is a major oil and gas development project in the Far East of Russia. Among them, Rosneft holds 50% shares, European shell holds 27.5% shares, and Mitsui and Mitsubishi jointly hold 22.5%.
After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the West imposed sanctions on Russia, and shell has announced that it will withdraw from the project, but Japan is really reluctant.
For Japan, “Sakhalin 2” is not only of great economic interest, but also related to national energy security. According to statistics, about 6 of the annual output of 10million tons of this project are exported to Japan. 10% of the natural gas in Tokyo, the capital of Japan, and half of the natural gas in Hiroshima, Kishida’s hometown, rely on “Sakhalin 2”.
The west can ignore “Sakhalin 2”, but Japan has to care. Therefore, on the one hand, closely follow Europe and the United States and impose various sanctions on Russia; But when it comes to the core oil and gas resources, Japan’s attitude is also very clear: it will not withdraw from Sakhalin 2.
But Japan wants to ride the wall, but Russia doesn’t.
The more you care about Sakhalin 2 in Japan, the more Russia will sing a big play.
Obviously, Putin’s recent project takeover order is aimed at Japan. Xiaomei’s latest threat is to make Japan more nervous and sensible.
According to the analysis of Nihon Keizai Shimbun, this does not rule out Putin’s separatism.
1. If you don’t accept Russia’s conditions in Japan, sorry, Japanese enterprises can’t retain their shareholder status.
2. In extreme cases, Japan can’t even get Russian oil and gas, which means that Japan’s energy security is extremely urgent. Think about the oil price of $300-400 per barrel threatened by Xiaomei.
3. If you accept the conditions of Russia and continue to invest in new projects, what kind of sanctions are you going to impose on Japan? How do you deal with Europe and the United States?
Japan is also in a dilemma. It wants to be both the sanctions of Russia and Russia’s oil and gas.
Putin should also be aware of this point, that is, provoking you makes you extremely anxious, that is, asking you to slap yourself, that is, making you the easiest point to break in the G7.
After all, Russia has always had a psychological advantage over Japan. As Japan has always been demanding from Russia on the issue of oil and gas resources and the four northern islands, it has maintained a very low-key situation.
Take Abe as an example. He sent Akita dogs to Putin and trotted all the way to see Putin. He laughed at Putin on various occasions.
However, after the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, Fumio Kishida’s government actually followed the United States and swung a big stick at Russia. How can Russia not be angry with all kinds of “unacceptable remarks”.
Why is that?
In the past two years, I feel that Japan is indeed a little crazy.
Anyway, we can see that since Trump came to power, Japan’s policy has been greatly adjusted, closely following the United States, participating in the so-called group of four, and putting pressure on China’s various accusations; For South Korea, it is a big stick waving, various sanctions and intimidation; Now, under the leadership of the United States, it has made every effort to encircle and suppress Russia.
In the final analysis, Japan still feels like the West. The state of mind is unbalanced and cannot see China’s development. As for Russia, I think it is more alien.
Russia has been used to Japan’s soft figure. Now Japan suddenly stands up and turns its face. It is also conceivable that Russia is surprised and angry. Akio Kishida, you do this, this is a knife behind the back, is a betrayal.
Zaharova, a very personalized spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, previously scolded, “Japan has been trying to maintain a certain balance for a long time, but obviously now the stakes have increased, and they are no longer restrained.”
Since Japan is not restrained, Russia is not polite. In addition to the routine action of adding Japan to the list of “unfriendly countries and regions”, the reception of “Sakhalin 2” is a deliberate counter measure of Russia against Japan.
Moreover, Russia has other Assassins’ Maces.
For example, in addition to energy, the problem of the four northern islands (called the South Kuril Islands in Russia).
Previously, Russia has informed Japan: the peace treaty is over. Japan wants the four northern islands. There is no way!
At that time, I said that according to Russian personality, eye for eye and tooth for tooth, which was not enough, and I would definitely continue to give Japan some eye medicine.
It cannot be ruled out that there will be follow-up. For example, Russia banned Japanese fishermen from fishing near the four islands, and even violently expelled and killed people; From time to time, hold a drill and hold several new store opening ceremonies… There are ways to stimulate Japan and Russia.
Also, although the west is now jointly strangling Russia, if Russia offers enough concessions to set up special economic zones on the four islands, it does not rule out that other countries in the world, Asian countries, African countries, and Latin American countries, have gone there to set up stores and factories
In this world, who will struggle with money?
Also, didn’t Ukraine produce a large number of refugees? It is said that there are more than 2 million refugees in Russia. It can’t be ruled out that Russia just arranges many refugees to the South Kuril Islands.
The population problem has always been a big problem. In Japan, the population is decreasing; In the four northern islands, if there are more and more Slavs. Look, how much more possibility is there for Japan to recover?
This is the “Butterfly Effect”, the crisis in Ukraine, the burden of Russia, the competition between the West and Russia, and finally, it may be a nightmare for the Japanese.
Japan is not convinced? Don’t forget that Russia holds the key to Japan. Russia has the oil and gas that Japan hopes to see through, and Japan is most afraid of nuclear weapons.
Alas, if you order tofu in brine, one thing will fall to another. In this world, the wicked have their own way.