Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
On July 5, there were two pieces of news that are of great concern and are directly related to China and the United States:
According to Xinhua news agency, on the morning of July 5, Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council and the Chinese leader of the China US comprehensive economic dialogue, held a video call with US Treasury Secretary Yellen at request. The two sides had a pragmatic and frank exchange of views on topics such as the macroeconomic situation and the stability of the global industrial chain supply chain. The exchanges were constructive.
The two sides believe that the current world economy is facing severe challenges, and it is of great significance to strengthen the communication and coordination of macro policies between China and the United States, and jointly maintain the stability of the global industrial chain supply chain, which is beneficial to China, the United States and the whole world. China has expressed its concern over the cancellation of tariffs and sanctions imposed by the United States on China and the fair treatment of Chinese enterprises. Both sides agreed to continue dialogue and communication.
According to the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the 5th, foreign ministry spokesman zhaolijian answered reporters’ questions on the meeting between Chinese and US foreign ministers in Bali during the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting. Zhao Lijian said that state councilor and foreign minister Wangyi will hold a series of bilateral meetings with foreign ministers of major countries and representatives of regional organizations at request during the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting. As agreed by China and the United States, Wang Yi will meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during the meeting to exchange views on current China US relations and major international and regional issues.
These two big news happened on the same day, which highlights the profound connotation and the three major attempts of the United States:
1? The United States needs China economically and is eager to communicate with China
Since Biden took office more than a year ago, vice premier Liu He has been talking to a number of senior economic officials, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and U.S. trade representative Dai Qi, at the request of the U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, and this call was at the request of the U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen on the morning of July 5. Once again, it shows that the United States is more anxious than China in mentality and objectively needs such communication more than China.
Let’s look at the content of the communication. The two sides had a pragmatic and frank exchange of views on topics such as the macroeconomic situation and the stability of the global industrial chain supply chain. The exchanges were constructive. Why mainly communicate the macroeconomic situation? Because the U.S. economic growth has stalled, the second quarter is likely to continue negative growth, while global economic growth has encountered great pressure; Why is the global industrial chain stable? Because this is the focus of the economic game between China and the United States. The United States is trying to cut off the global industrial chain supply chain around China, while China is strengthening the industrial chain supply chain around China. At the same time, the stability of the global industrial chain supply chain is related to the global economy, so it is certainly the core communication content.
In terms of communication, they exchanged views in a pragmatic and frank manner, which shows that both sides spoke very thoroughly. Of course, the two sides also have great differences, which is called honesty; As for pragmatism, it shows that the things discussed have been very specific rather than unconstrained. Finally, the constructive conclusion of the exchange shows that, on the one hand, the two sides have not reached a substantive consensus, and on the other hand, both sides have understood each other’s position.
After the communication between the two sides, there is a consensus that is not a consensus, that is, the two sides believe that the current world economy is facing severe challenges, it is of great significance to strengthen the communication and coordination of macro policies between China and the United States, and jointly maintain the stability of the global industrial chain supply chain, which is conducive to China and the United States and the whole world. The reason why this is not a consensus is that the current world economy is facing severe challenges. Although it is a consensus and it is of great significance to strengthen the communication and coordination of macro policies between China and the United States, the United States has not jointly maintained the stability of the global industrial chain supply chain. It wants to restructure the industrial chain supply chain around the United States. But the reason why the United States also said so is that it can ostensibly “take the overall situation into account”.
The Chinese side is very interesting, and has specially expressed its concern about the United States’ lifting of tariffs and sanctions on China, and the fair treatment of Chinese enterprises. However, Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) believes that it is more like China criticizing the United States morally and baking the United States on the fire. Because it is the United States that has engaged in trade wars and sanctions that have affected the world economy and the U.S. economy at the same time, China is criticizing the United States by raising this matter. At the same time, the more China mentions it, considering the Anti China momentum of US trade representative Dai Qi, the more it will delay tariff reduction. In fact, Chinese enterprises have adapted to this state. The United States will be hurt more by not reducing tariffs than China. China’s wisdom is really incomparable with that of the United States.
2? The United States hopes to create an illusion that China dare not challenge the United States
The United States continues to provoke China in various ways, but the United States can communicate if it wants to communicate with China. In the short term, it seems that the United States is very “big guy” and can act arbitrarily. This is actually American opportunism, that is, the United States can create the illusion that a China does not dare to challenge the United States, so that the United States can use this to deceive other countries to fight against China. The United States has been doing this for the past few years.
What about China? Do the opposite. Don’t you think the U.S. is doing me a favor? I calmly respond, not impatient, a pawn in the sun. Time will eventually prove that you and the United States are using up tricks, but you can’t get me. In this way, it will prove that China’s strength is equivalent to that of the United States. When China’s strength is equal to that of the United States, it is in the interests of the overall situation that China does not challenge the United States, but on the contrary, if the United States provokes China, the risk is also great, which is a very dangerous thing, and the world will see it clearly after a certain period of time.
Therefore, between China and the United States, one is to take the long-term, the other is to look at the short-term, which is one of the fundamental reasons for the differences in attitudes and positions between the two countries.
3? Paralyze China and create an atmosphere in which the United States still controls everything
In the above two news, whether it is the call between vice premier Liu He and Yellen or the meeting between the foreign ministers of China and the United States in Indonesia, China has shown calm and calm. On the other hand, although the United States is pawing, on the one hand, it can’t play a substantive role in China. On the other hand, it highlights the strategic anxiety of the United States, which is in sharp contrast to China’s calm. However, in this process, the United States still hopes to create an atmosphere in which it can control everything. Of course, it also tries to paralyze China through the illusion of easing relations with China and reduce China’s attitude and will to resist the United States.
However, after the trade war in 2018, it has been proved that the comprehensive national strength of China and the United States is very close, and the United States cannot do anything to China. In this case, China is becoming more and more calm against the United States, just like cooking a small delicacy; On the contrary, the United States is becoming more and more unstable, which can be described as a dilemma, even in its own interests.
Then, we can’t help asking, after these two rounds of communication, how will the situation be interpreted? Will Sino US relations ease up as a result?
In Zhanhao’s view, China US relations generally continue to deteriorate. At some point in the middle, it seems that the state of easing has no impact on the overall trend, and there will be no substantive changes. Therefore, it must not be an illusion that China US relations have improved just because there is interaction between China and the United States. Before China’s comprehensive strength lags behind that of the United States, China US relations will not change substantially. We must recognize this objective reality.
As for how to interpret such two rounds of communication, Zhanhao believes that after the United States adopted the so-called “strategic concept” against China at the NATO summit, it must seek the illusion of “easing” in its attitude towards relations with China, one of which is to paralyze China. However, China will not be fooled by this. The economic relationship between China and the United States may ease, especially when the United States reduces tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the United States. The United States may adjust under its own inflationary pressure. But there will be no substantive change between China and the United States.
China is not afraid of confrontation by the United States, and certainly does not refuse any communication. China is a responsible big country and is willing to bear the responsibility of a big country. However, the United States should not deceive too much, especially in China’s core interests, do not challenge China, otherwise it will be hit head-on.
Just like the Taiwan issue is the red line, once the United States really crosses the red line, the consequences will be unimaginable. At that time, the United States should not feel that China does not give face. In this core interest, there is no so-called face at all! The United States needs to be cautious in its future exchanges with China, not rash, or it will be too late to regret!