Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (id:hooyar_380097485)
Crude oil prices fell sharply on Friday. I said on my microblog that if crude oil fell, US stocks would have a rebound.
Remember, the decline of crude oil price is definitely not the monetary policy of the United States. The stupid interest rate hike has worked. It is a kind of kindness to those forces who control the pricing power of the world’s bulk commodities and their control over the US dollar.
The reality that mainstream economists were reluctant to say before is that the excessive issuance of US dollars and the crazy printing of banknotes can print deflation. It is not that the US monetary policy is more powerful and the US economic policy is more excellent. In fact, the US macro policy has been in a state of bad to worse and worse to worse.
When hegemony loses its control, everything it does is to serve financial capital. An empire that relies too much on financial capital is sinking deeper and deeper into the quagmire of death.
Financial capital has widened the gap between the rich and the poor. What the United States uses to endorse financial capital is consumerism. The United States’ GDP is based on strong domestic consumption, and more than 70% of GDP is created by consumption.
Production is small but consumption is fierce, which requires the United States to maintain global hegemony and force the inflated valuation of the dollar.
Looking back over the past few decades, every crisis of the US dollar was accompanied by a severe challenge to US hegemony.
For example, the stagflation in the 1970s, in fact, before the oil countries united to provoke the oil crisis, the United States had gone a long way on the road of inflation.
In the 1960s, the United States took the lead for France and forcibly fought a Vietnam War. However, Charles de Gaulle of France was the first to jump out and force the United States to return France’s gold reserves with his own reputation.
All of a sudden, it broke the painting of the Brinton forest system.
Does it matter if Americans have gold in the vault? The important thing is that everyone thinks that the Americans can cope with the runs from various countries, and they dare not really use the means to press for debt from the United States.
With the support of the Soviet Union and the weak international performance of the US military in the Vietnam War, de Gaulle directly forced the United States to open its gold reserves.
After the first domino of the golden trick collapses, the game will not continue.
So in the 1970s, Americans actually had a hard time.
Countries in the Middle East have little interest in collecting a pile of dollars that no one wants. They simply join forces to engage in an oil crisis.
Do you want to understand the reason here? Because the US dollar has broken off its anchor with gold, and Europe does not want us dollars, the Middle East has received a large amount of US dollars in transactions with the United States and Europe, but it can not be replaced with gold. As more and more white slips accumulate, the Middle East countries are beginning to panic, so they take the opportunity to make a big deal.
Is there any effect in the end? The effect was that brother Jixin took the lead to make a py transaction with the Gulf States led by Saudi Arabia. The United States guaranteed the security of the Middle East, and the Middle East only charged us dollars for selling oil.
In order to intimidate the kings of the Middle East, Iran was sacrificed, the Pahlavi Dynasty was overthrown, and the vested interests of the royal family had to abandon their wealth and flee.
The Pahlavi Dynasty was a comprador puppet regime held by the Americans. Later Khomeini came to power with the slogan: neither the east nor the West.
The East refers to the Soviet Union, so the question arises: how much did the Soviet Union do to overthrow the Pahlavi dynasty?
But the final result was to frighten the king of the Middle East. Everyone knew that the United States wanted nothing more than an obedient comprador government, and the Soviet Union wanted a revolution.
Finally, to reach the petrodollar agreement is to save the dollar’s life.
But how did the dollar hegemony recover?
First, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 79. The red empire’s act of directly slapping bricks on the outside world triggered a collective disgust from the Middle East to Europe, so we decided to help the US dollar make credit together;
The second is the reform and opening-up of major countries, which is tantamount to announcing that the United States will choose the side. The so-called “tie the bell” is still necessary to solve the bell. The Vietnam War broke the hegemony of the US dollar, because there was a threat from China’s 17 degree line behind, and the Americans could not bear to win. When the US dollar hegemony was at its weakest, China stood up and endorsed the US dollar incrementally;
When the Soviet Union was completely disintegrated, there was only one dominant power in the world. In the cold war, the old way of fighting back and forth became that Americans could do whatever they wanted. At this time, they would free up their hands to clean up the Middle East.
Bush Sr. fought a Gulf War, which made the oil countries fully understand the situation. Therefore, in the Clinton era, the United States created a lot of liquidity by encouraging the expansion of financial capital with low interest rates. However, in this way, oil should be sold honestly at low prices.
The Internet financial foam in the United States is tantamount to monetizing a large amount of military spending during the cold war, relying on low interest rates and a loose monetary environment.
I have always said that in the whole monetary cycle of the United States, there must be enough time in the easing period and the world must be open enough so that the water of the dollar can be released.
Some people don’t understand the meaning of it. They think that the society is so developed now. Why didn’t the easing during the epidemic go out?
The so-called “easing” means that through the easing cycle of the US dollar, US investment flows to the world. People around the world enjoy a wave of comprehensive foam dividends. The economy is good, employment is good, asset prices are rising, and people dare to borrow to invest and consume.
But during the epidemic period, which country’s people dared to open up to borrowing money for consumption?
The so-called prosperity will remain in a small number of countries in the United States and Europe that have financial hegemony. This depends on the direct distribution of money by the government.
There is not a good year for both production and sales in the world, and most countries’ GDP is shrinking.
Therefore, the liquidity released by the easing of the US dollar is a barrier lake in the event of an epidemic. It is blocked in commodities and the US mainland. Other countries have not enjoyed the benefits of economic growth, but have been forced to accept the pressure brought about by inflation. This makes the so-called impartiality of the Fed’s policy unanimously questioned. Of course, questioning the Fed is actually questioning the US dollar.
Let’s look back at the best period of Sino US relations recently: the reign of George W. Bush.
George W. Bush suffered 9 / 11, so the United States immediately changed its position and let China join the WTO. The whole government also became particularly pro China. Without 9 / 11, George W. Bush would certainly not be so talkative.
9 / 11 is the first time that the core area of the US territory has been directly attacked. The world trade center in New York is the financial center. The terrorist attacks at this level show that finance is no longer safe in the US mainland.
If the United States can not prove that it can guarantee the security of the United States, then who dares to believe in the hegemony of the dollar?
George W. Bush is not a fool either. He immediately pulled the big productivity countries in the east to join the WTO and increased the total volume of Global trade. Under the combination of China and the United States, it means that the amount of the US dollar in the trade of goods will become larger, which means that the US dollar has an endorsement of the productivity of the world factory.
Of course, George W. Bush still wants to go to the Middle East to teach a lesson and show off his military strength to the world. After the Middle East is defeated, the dollar will stabilize.
Another is the period of listening to the sea and watching the waves.
Wall Street played currency off-line and created a subprime mortgage crisis. In order to save the behind the scenes bosses in the United States, the Federal Reserve took out QE for the first time.
At that time, the great powers bought a lot of US debt to Endorse US dollar credit.
The big powers were the first to act, and Europe and Japan had to follow suit honestly.
However, the US dollar has been playing too big. It is impossible to trust the so-called Fed’s integrity as before. Therefore, the big countries began to open local currency swaps with their small partners around to deal with the US dollar.
When the United States plays with the European debt crisis in Europe, the big countries go to rescue their little partners in Europe, which is tantamount to exporting to the US dollar.
This has poked the lung tube of aoguanhai. Since then, there has been no warm friendship, and some have returned to the Asia Pacific.
At the time of the transfer of power between trump and Biden, the party struggle in the United States was completely heated.
Occupying Capitol Hill is actually a public rebellion, but trump counseled at the last minute.
If Biden can directly convict trump and put him in prison after taking office, the world will think that American politics will be on the right track as before.
However, the entire mobilization of the political arena could not lead to the establishment of a Sichuan Jianguo, so the outside world knows that Biden’s position is not stable, and the future U.S. policies will certainly swing wildly. Now there is no need to take the words of the United States too seriously. After all, it is not certain who will have the the final say in the White House!
So from march2021, US inflation has suddenly become serious!
However, even if the inflation data is not good-looking, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury jointly decided to continue to implement the large-scale money printing policy. In short, all kinds of money are issued and made.
Under the epidemic, too much money was printed and directly distributed to the people, which led to workers simply lying flat and spending at home.
In the 2020 general election, Biden can win by relying on the black life expensive movement. After winning, of course, he should release welfare, so he unlocked the zero yuan purchase from the legislative level.
Seeing that the United States is such a situation, the outside world began to dislike it. This is tantamount to the United States’ indiscriminate looting of the world. Therefore, exports to the United States also rose with the rise of bulk commodities and the sharp rise of international freight.
By September 2021, the United States will flee from Afghanistan, which is very similar to fleeing from Vietnam in the 1970s, and may be more embarrassed than Vietnam in those years.
So the Middle East completely despised the US emperor.
Now the Middle East does not need the protection of the United States. No one exports revolution in the Middle East. The United States has stinked itself in recent years, so the true face of the United States as a beacon of democracy has been completely exposed, and there is no market for the United States to lead the export of revolution.
So the Lords of the Middle East began to deliberately disagree with the United States.
Biden Sr., who had been mixed up in the cold war, could not think of any good way, so he remembered the old yellow calendar of the United States and the Soviet Union fighting for hegemony, and decided to let his younger brother Ukraine brainless to provoke a war with Russia
Americans expect that as before, as long as they put forward the Russian threat theory, at least their inner circle of younger brothers will have to be obedient and help the dollar maintain its credit, so as to defend the hegemony of the dollar.
Unfortunately, in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, more and more countries chose to maintain friendly relations with Russia. Especially after Russia took out ruble energy pricing and welcomed friendly countries to trade directly in their own currencies, even India showed a resolute anti water attitude.
In fact, this is the big killer that makes it difficult for the us to curb its vicious inflation.
The United States did not provide a good environment for countries to earn more dollars. Originally, people did not have much foreign savings. Sri Lanka had a national crisis because of lack of money. The inflation in Turkey has exceeded 70%.
If we all have no dollars, and some powerful people point out a new way of foreign trade without dollars, what will those poor countries do?
Of course, we should try our best to follow suit and do global trade in dollars.
This has led to more dollars being flushed back to the United States, and the funds are flowing back, but the money is now in danger of not being spent. For bulk commodity trading, do not trade in local currencies, and do not use dollars as a double dealer.
When the US dollar comes back to the United States, there is nothing to fry except the price. The US debt is a Ponzi scheme. People usually rush to buy it because they have so much foreign reserves. They have no choice but to buy US debt.
Now people don’t need so much foreign savings. Will the return of US dollars take over US debt?
So the Federal Reserve came up with a way to raise interest rates aggressively.
The United States is having a hard time, and everyone is not allowed to have a good time. As long as the global hot money has no motherland, as long as the dollar is raised, the currencies of other economies will be devalued first.
Regard currency as an investment, and follow the rise and fall of international funds.
The first mainstream currency to collapse was the yen.
Driven by the yen, it has become the first devaluation of Asian currencies. What would you do if you were a local chaebol? Must be to quickly change the local currency wealth into US dollars and run away!
Now, does the demand for dollars come out?
If the additional US dollars are properly controlled, will they be able to maintain a relatively balanced state?
Of course, such a play is tantamount to giving some color to those countries that are trying to engage in local currency trading, so that we can know that the dollar is still a little more reliable after all when the currency is worse.
The so-called “hundred footed insects die but do not freeze”. The US emperor has been running the world for so many years. It will certainly be effective to carry out suicide financial attacks in the face of the US stock market crash.
Oil prices have also started to fall recently.
As long as the oil price starts to fall, there will be a way to stabilize prices in the United States, which means that everyone is afraid that the United States will be rotten and wants to let it go.
Then there is no need for the United States to be so stupid and run its own stock and bond markets.
So as long as the crude oil price can go down, the U.S. stock market will rebound. I don’t need to force the index votes.