Another chaotic country in Central Asia, once an “ally” of the United States!

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Original: housha source wechat official account: housha has been authorized to reprint

At the beginning of this year, a large-scale Street riot broke out in Kazakhstan, the “boss” of the five Central Asian countries. With the Kazakh military and police struggling, the “collective security organization” led by Russia quickly dispatched troops to control the situation in several important cities in Kazakhstan.

The Tokaev government then arrested several important organizers, and the riot has basically passed.

At the end of February, the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, while Central Asia was relatively calm. Only the presidential election in Turkmenistan on March 15 attracted a little international attention.

Serdar, the son of the current president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, became the new president with 72.97% support. The United States also sent a congratulatory message to him, and Antony Blinken said he hoped to strengthen cooperation between the United States and Turkey.

But on July 1, Uzbekistan became a news focus.

Generally speaking, if these “stans” in Central Asia become the focus of international news, it will not be a good thing, as it was in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in the past.

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Uzbekistan is also a street riot this time.

On July 1, a street riot broke out in Nukus, the capital of the Republic of Karakalpakstan in Ukraine, as the parliament prepared to pass the constitutional amendment.

On July 2, nearly 300 rioters attacked military outposts in Nukus, injured 50 members of the National Guard and took away weapons, and then attacked Nukus International Airport and government agencies.

The Uzbek military and police recaptured the sentry on the same day and arrested a number of riot organizers. As of yesterday, the riots have caused a total of 18 deaths and 243 injuries.

Uzbek President mirziyev announced that the Republic of Karakalpakstan will implement a curfew from July 3 to August 2.

Due to the state of emergency, the country was disconnected from the Internet, and there was not much news on the scene, but there were also some bloody pictures. But what is certain is that this is a street political movement with internal and external collusion.

The direct cause of the riots was the “constitutional amendment”. According to the new draft constitution, the “right to referendum on independence” of the Republic of Karakalpakstan will be cancelled.

The “Republic of Kara” is located in the northwest of Uzbekistan, with a population of about 2million. It is a provincial unit, but it accounts for 40% of the national territory.

In the first half of the 19th century, there were three feudal khanates in Central Asia: brahha, kokhan, Shiva, and some independent or semi independent tribes.

The residents here are composed of six major ethnic groups: Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and karakalpak.

The three Khanate countries slaughtered each other continuously, and were externally threatened by Tsarist Russia and Britain. By 1881, they were successively annexed by Tsarist Russia. After the October Revolution, it became a member Republic of the Soviet Union (basic ethnic division).

However, the status of karakalpak is relatively vague. At first, it belonged to the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic as an autonomous prefecture.

In 1932, it was separately classified as “karakalpark Soviet Socialist autonomous republic”. In 1936, it was included in the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic.

By 1991, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the independence of Uzbekistan, Karakalpakstan became an autonomous republic (provincial administrative unit) of Uzbekistan. The population structure of Uzbekistan, Qatar and Kazakhstan was roughly 1:1:0.8. Two official languages are used – karakalpak and Uzbek.

However, constitutionally, the Autonomous Republic of Kara has “sovereignty” and “the right to secede from Uzbekistan” (articles 70-75), as well as its own national emblem, national flag and national anthem. It seems to be a country within a state.

Both Karimov, the first president of Uzbekistan, and mirziyev, the current president, believe that the special status of the Autonomous Republic of Kara is a hidden danger:

1? It is possible to split the country. Although the Ka people are not in an absolute advantage in terms of number, if they can successfully unite the Kazakh people, they will have a chance to overwhelm the Ukrainian people and achieve independence through a referendum.

2? Opposition forces gather here, and the laws of Ukraine are not unimpeded here, and politically, they need to be “approved” by the local parliament and administrative agencies.

Therefore, this amendment to the constitution is aimed at articles 70-75 and cancels the possibility of its independence. After the draft was published on June 25, it was unexpected that the opposition could launch a large-scale riot in the local area so quickly.

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The rioters organized mainly through two means:

1? Offline contacts of various local NGO organizations;

2? Social networking platforms (twitter, Facebook, etc.).

The mirziyev government has adopted both soft and hard means to deal with it:

1? Military and police were sent to carry out a strong clearance of Nukus urban area, and a curfew was announced;

2? Mirziyoev himself arrived in Nukus and held a video conference with leaders of all regions of the Republic, and announced that Articles 70, 71, 72, 73, 74 and 75 of the constitution would be retained without amendment.

At present, every resident of the Republic of Laka who has a mobile phone has received a short message from the government saying “do not modify clause 70-75”.

Uzbekistan officially announced that the situation in Karakalpakstan has stabilized and is returning to normal order.

In this way, the internal unrest should be gradually controlled. However, the mirziyev government made a meaningful remark: there was “malicious foreign forces” behind the riots.

This is similar to the attitude of the Kazakh government at the beginning of the year. It does not say who it is, but it makes people feel that it is that country.

Putin’s press secretary Peskov said yesterday that the Kremlin believes that the incident is an internal affair of Uzbekistan. There is no doubt that the current problems will be solved with the active work of the leaders of Uzbekistan.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman zhaolijian said today: China has noticed what happened in Uzbekistan a few days ago. As a friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner, China supports the Uzbek government in maintaining national stability and believes that Uzbekistan can maintain stability and unity under the leadership of President mirziyev.

At present, the United States has no clear attitude and is still waiting and watching. However, since the middle and late May, the United States has made frequent moves in Central Asia.

From May 23 to 27, Donald Lu, the first assistant secretary of state of the United States, led a delegation from the National Security Council, the Department of defense, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the United States International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to visit Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan.

In addition to meeting with government officials and business leaders in Uzbekistan, Americans also met with several NGO leaders to discuss the establishment of “common values” and the United States’ support for women’s rights in the country.

According to the official website of the US State Department, the purpose of this trip is to create a prosperous and safe central Asia.

In addition, Thomas West, the special envoy of the United States for Afghanistan, led another U.S. delegation to Uzbekistan from May 26 to 28, which was also said to be for the security of Central Asia.

From the experience of the world, when the United States says it comes for “safety” in a place, there will be no safety in that place. When the United States extends its hand to Central Asia, Central Asia must be careful.

The importance of Central Asia

In the 19th century, British scholar Mackinder delivered a speech on the geographical hub of history. He told Westerners: “Whoever rules Eastern Europe can dominate the heart; whoever rules the heart can dominate the world island; whoever rules the world island can dominate the world”.

The “heartland” he said is the Central Asia area located in the hinterland of Eurasia. This theory is also one of the foundations of Western geopolitical theory.

In ancient times, it was a transportation hub connecting Asia and Europe. It was a necessary place to go east, West, South and North. The ancient Silk Road passed through it.

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Although tsarist Russia controlled central Asia at the end of the 19th century, the British controlled Iran, India (Pakistan, Kashmir), as well as part of Afghanistan, Baluchistan and other regions.

Although the great powers are fighting to the death here, the most important problem in this “heartland” cannot be solved for a long time, that is, economic development, especially in Central Asian countries.

After the end of the cold war, the five Central Asian countries established their own countries, but their development was very slow.

On the one hand, the five countries all have the cultural and social background of Islam, which leads to the infiltration and development of extremist forces and terrorist organizations in the Middle East, Afghanistan and surrounding countries into Central Asia, which makes these countries unbearable. After the establishment of the SCO, with the help of China and Russia, the “three forces” were curbed and a heavy and dangerous burden was thrown off for the five countries.

On the other hand, the five countries are all facing confusion and weakness in the establishment of their political systems. In the early 1990s, they were all grafted with the “American democracy” system (regular presidential elections, parliaments, decentralization of courts, nationalization of the army, etc.), but in fact, their societies are accustomed to “Khan” rule.

Therefore, Turkmenistan, the father and son of president, is the most stable, and the United States dare not say anything about it; Kazakhstan’s Lao Na was defeated when he passed the throne to his daughter and son-in-law; Kyrgyzstan is the most “democratic”, but there will be political unrest in almost three to five years, with NGOs everywhere; Since the civil war in Tajikistan broke out in 1997, the per capita GDP has been less than 1000 US dollars.

They mainly rely on Russia in terms of security, and Russia also regards it as the softest hinterland.

However, Karimov, the first president of Uzbekistan, wanted to take a different path — establishing equal distance diplomacy with Russia, China and the United States, and then fell to the United States.

In 2001, because there was no sea route for the United States to enter Afghanistan, Karimov agreed that the United States would establish a military base in Uzbekistan and open its airspace to the United States.

Thus, the khagabat military base became the first military base of the United States in Central Asia, which is only 200 kilometers away from Afghanistan. In this way, the relationship between the United States and Uzbekistan suddenly reached the honeymoon period, and Uzbekistan tasted the sweetness of economic assistance.

At the same time, Karimov actively participated in the SCO and maintained good relations with China and Russia.

He believed that this was the most perfect diplomatic model, but he forgot the strategic importance of Uzbekistan and Central Asia, and more importantly, he forgot the nature of the United States.

In 2002, the Bush administration believed that Karimov’s joining the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization” was a sign of instability in U.S. – Uzbekistan relations, and that the United States wanted to establish a permanent military base here.

The United States is determined to overthrow Karimov’s regime and establish a pro american regime led by the “democratic” faction.

After more than three years of planning by the United States, armed riots broke out in Andijan, Uzbekistan, late on May 12, 2005. Armed elements attacked police stations and army barracks, grabbed a large number of weapons and ammunition, and opened prisons.

On May 13, demonstrators shouted slogans: “Karimov resigned”.

This is almost the same as the Ukrainian “orange script” in 2004. First, the western media created an atmosphere of “peaceful demonstrations”, then paralyzed social order, and some people shot at the crowd, creating bloodshed.

Karimov showed no mercy and sent troops to quell the riots in two days, resulting in 187 deaths.

On July 5, 2005, SCO held a meeting in Kazakhstan, announcing its support for Uzbekistan and demanding that “Western military forces withdraw from Central Asia”.

On July 29, Uzbekistan informed the U.S. ambassador to request the U.S. military to withdraw from Khan abad military base.

Since then, the United States and Ukraine have turned, and this “ally” in Central Asia, as CNN calls it, has suddenly become a terrible tyrant.

On September 30, the US Congress demanded that Karimov be taken to the International Criminal Court.

On November 21, the US military had to close its base and move to Afghanistan.

On April 30, 2007, Uzbekistan and China signed an agreement to join the construction of the Central Asia natural gas pipeline.

After the rapid development of China’s economy, the cooperation between Ukraine and China has become closer.

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In 2012, Uzbekistan withdrew from the “collective security organization” to ease relations with the United States.

However, Karimov has always maintained a good relationship with Putin. After Karimov died of cerebral hemorrhage in September 2016, Putin personally came to attend his funeral.

Mirziyev acted as president as prime minister, and then became president in the election at the end of 2016.

At present, Russia is full of enemies in the west, Sweden and Finland in the north are also about to join NATO, Japan and South Korea in the East, but China is back-to-back with Russia.

The eastern waters of China are threatened by the first island chain, and the southwest is not friendly to India.

The Central Asia region between China and Russia must be the strategic focus that the United States wants to break through in order to contain China and Russia at the same time.

The United States needs a foothold. When the “China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan” railway is ready to start construction, does the United States want the stable development of Central Asia or unrest. Isn’t the answer clear?

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