Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (id:rongping898) has been authorized to reprint
The war between Russia and Ukraine, which lasted for more than three months, attracted the attention of the world, and the United States, the “big brother” of Europe, also took the initiative to participate in it. Politicians from all walks of life created various tricks to support Ukraine. After you sing, I came on stage. It was very lively. However, we all know that there is only one country that can truly shake the global hegemony of the United States, that is, China. Sooner or later, the White House will wake up and come back, and then engage in the practice of “settling down at home before settling down at home”. Recently, its fox tail has been exposed again.
According to the latest reports of Agence France Presse, the associated press and other authoritative media, on May 26 local time, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who had just recovered from the new crown, delivered a speech on China policy at George Washington University. The content of the speech was not too much, and it took only about 45 minutes. It is reported that the speech was originally intended to be held in early May to pave the way for Biden’s recent trip to Asia, but Antony Blinken’s sudden infection with the new crown forced the speech to be postponed for more than 20 days. In fact, this has turned the speech from a call to arms to a work summary, basically losing the possibility of preemption.
hackneyed and stereotyped expressions
There is no right to speak without investigation. In order to understand the future US policy towards China in detail, it is necessary to analyze the contents of Antony Blinken’s speech. At least it can let us know the current US government’s views on the future China US relations. However, the 45 minute speech seemed to be torture to one person. Why do you say so? Because what Antony Blinken said was all platitudes, there was no dry goods at all, and some of the content can even be traced back to the Obama era, when Biden was his vice president.
In general, Antony Blinken’s China strategy is divided into three aspects: investment, alliance and competition. Competition is the best understood. Antony Blinken stressed that the United States needs to compete with China to maintain its position. Then he gave three examples – chips, photovoltaic and batteries. He believed that the United States has great potential in these three fields in the future. The U.S. government should vigorously support American enterprises to surpass China in these three fields. The alliance is not groundless. Antony Blinken believes that the United States cannot fight alone in terms of climate change and the COVID-19, and it is very necessary to form an alliance with China. As for investment, he does not want to invest in China, but in the United States to promote the return of manufacturing industry and domestic construction, enhance the strength of the United States, and add value to the competition between China and the United States.
(photovoltaic power generation)
In addition to these three points, Antony Blinken is not surprised to talk about the so-called “human rights issue” and “Taiwan issue”, which have been hyped by American politicians for many years. What is the credibility of a statement based on nothing? When Antony Blinken talked about relevant issues, he talked about him. The audience was sleepy.
After making unrealistic statements in many fields, Antony Blinken turned the topic back to China US relations and came up with a conclusion: the United States wants to engage in fierce competition with China to maintain the so-called “existing global order”, but at the same time, he said that the United States does not seek a “new cold war” with China.
There are so many valuable contents in this speech. It is not difficult to see that many of Antony Blinken’s views were elaborated by Biden as early as last year after he was sworn in. The so-called “investment” and “competition” were the things that the United States vigorously pursued during the trump period, and alliance was the formulation of some American politicians during the Obama period. To be realistic, Antony Blinken’s speech is not necessary to be advertised except for the long time.
It is worth noting that when Antony Blinken expressed his thanks on the stage, he spent a lot of time thanking Romney, who was sitting on the stage. He was a big man of the US Republican Party and had been recommended by the party as a presidential candidate to compete with Biden. Under the background of increasingly fierce domestic party disputes in the United States, this may mean that the word “China” has become the glue of the two parties in the United States.
Of course, as the de facto second in command of the United States, we have to respond to the Secretary of state’s words. Not long after the speech, Qin Gang, Chinese ambassador to the United States, said that what the United States called competition is not fair and healthy competition. Competition should be fair and just. Based on the recognized basic norms of international relations and WTO rules, both sides should make each other better, rather than a zero sum game in which you lose and I win, and impose their own set of private rules on the other side, let alone curb and suppress the other side by any means. This is not competition, but malicious confrontation, which will have dangerous consequences.
At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on May 27, foreign ministry spokesman wangwenbin also responded to Antony Blinken’s speech. Wangwenbin said that Secretary of state Antony Blinken’s speech was broad-minded and painstaking. Its essence was to spread false information, exaggerate China’s threat, interfere in China’s internal affairs, and discredit China’s domestic and foreign policies. Its purpose was to curb and suppress China’s development and safeguard US hegemony. China is strongly dissatisfied with this and firmly opposes it.
New Cold War
Since Antony Blinken has come up with a statement that the United States does not intend to fight a new cold war with China, let’s analyze what the new cold war means, and most of the other contents are worthless.
Since there is something new, there is something old. In a broad sense, the so-called Cold War refers to the all-round confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the period from the founding of the Warsaw Pact NATO to the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The most special thing about this confrontation is that there has never been a direct war between the United States and the Soviet Union, all of which are proxy wars. Moreover, the United States and the Soviet Union are quite cautious and try not to give the other side a handle. For example, in order to trip up the Soviet troops in Afghanistan, the United States spent a large amount of money to buy Soviet weapons from other countries to support the Afghan guerrillas. At least on the surface, it still left enough buffer space.
(cartoons reflecting the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union)
However, although no direct war broke out during the cold war, the competition between the two sides in all aspects has not stopped. The United States and the Soviet Union have tried their best to prove that their systems are the most perfect and they are the future of mankind. The resources invested in this regard are also massive. The cold war is no easier than the hot war. In 1961, the Soviet Union successfully sent Gagarin into space. If the United States wants to prove the institutional superiority of capitalism, it must do something greater than the Soviet Union. At that time, President Kennedy chose to take the crown of landing on the moon. Finally, the United States spent about $25billion to send Apollo 11 to the moon. At that time, the total economic output of the United States was only $700billion, and this plan spent nearly 4% of the wealth of the United States all at once.
The reason why Antony Blinken did not intend to engage in a full-scale tit for tat with China was that the United States did not have this ability and he could not win the war.
On the one hand, where are the advantages of the American system? In recent years, there have been an endless stream of explosions. In the face of the COVID-19, the United States chose to raise the white flag and shift all responsibilities to China on the other side of the ocean. As a result, millions of Americans died as a result. The death toll of Xinguan exceeded the number of American soldiers killed in World War I and World War II. Is this the superiority of the American system? The Afghan government, supported by the United States in accordance with its own ideal system, fought alone in the face of the Taliban and abandoned their armor within two months. The Taliban armed forces have been popular with the people all the way. It seems that they do not like the United States. In addition to the endless shooting cases, racial discrimination, political turmoil, bipartisan strife and other things, the American system is basically smelly, not to say that everyone is shouting and fighting across the street. Biden himself said that when the Capitol Hill conflict broke out, many leaders of western countries called him. The first sentence was: what happened to the United States? He was speechless. Yeah, what happened to the American system?
(trump supporters rush to Capitol Hill)
On the other hand, the United States cannot afford another cold war. After the war between Russia and Ukraine, China has become the second largest military power in the world. In addition to its military strength, China has a huge market of 1.4 billion people and is one of the most important trading partners of most countries in the world. This is an achievement beyond the reach of the Soviet Union. How much does the United States have to pay for the outbreak of a new cold war against such a country? First, it costs money to win over countries that have close trade relations with China. At least the United States should transfer a large part of its actual interests; Secondly, the U.S. military needs to maintain its presence in the world to ensure U.S. hegemony. The diversion of forces against China will only create a vacuum in other hot spots. However, it is obviously unrealistic to increase the U.S. military’s strength by adding more military spending. How much does the United States want to add to $700billion? In addition, China is not the only country that opposes US hegemony. It can lift a gourd when it is pressed, not to mention it can not be pressed down.
(American people who buy goods)
The tiger sits on the dragon’s plate and wins the past. The earth is overturned and generous. We are proud to say that the United States is not qualified to implement the old Cold War logic in front of China. China is not afraid of this!
Trojan Horse
Having said that, we have to guard against the United States’ Wolf ambition. Although Antony Blinken said that he would not fight the new cold war, he talked about how to target China throughout the speech, just because he did not want to completely tear his face and hurt both sides. This seemingly peaceful declaration is just a Trojan horse of the new era. Mao Zedong clearly stated in his “on Correctly Handling Contradictions among the people” that “we must not have unrealistic ideas about them (referring to imperialist countries)”.
There is only one way to kill America’s wolf ambitions, that is, to break through the shackles set by the United States and take off completely. How to do it? In fact, Antony Blinken already told us the answer in his speech.
Antony Blinken believes that the United States should compete with China in the three fields of chip, photovoltaic and battery. In fact, this assertion is no problem. Under the background that the next scientific and technological revolution is long gone and it is difficult to find a breakthrough in industrial upgrading, the three fields with wide application scenarios and high added value, chips, photovoltaic and batteries, are clearly the next battleground that China and the United States must wrestle with.
This is also where China solves the problem – looking for high value-added industrial chains to break through the middle-income crisis.
(typical clothing factory)
After decades of development, Chinese enterprises have become bigger and stronger, but have they really become better? How many core technologies do we have to rely on? The C919, a large domestic aircraft, is about to be delivered for the first time. However, although it is called domestic, many components come from abroad. One engine is enough to jam our neck; Because of a Sino US trade war, Huawei, as a leader in the domestic mobile phone market, ended up with no core available and had to stop production of some mobile phones. Today, although our country’s GDP has reached about 70% of that of the United States, these 70% are “hard money”. We don’t have much say in industries that really make money. And even this “hard money” seems hard to earn in the future. With the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, the labor-intensive industries represented by textiles, toys and furniture are gradually transferring to Southeast Asian countries. According to Vietnamese media reports, a Vietnamese worker who works 26 days a month and 10 hours a day in a garment factory can get a monthly salary of about 7million Vietnamese Dong (nearly 2100 yuan). Can we still recruit workers in China?
(Vietnamese workers)
Before the demographic dividend and other favorable forms completely disappear, we must find a new way to master those industries with high pricing power and high added value, and obtain more profits to subsidize the whole society. Otherwise, what should we do next? What else can be developed? We should know that the low-end manufacturing industry in most countries has been hit by China, and further refinement is almost impossible.
The above is a breakthrough in the economic aspect, while the military aspect also requires us to summon up the spirit of 120000. Antony Blinken mentioned the Taiwan issue again in this speech. In combination with Biden’s statement that he wanted to “defend Taiwan by force” not long ago, it can be seen that the US government has regarded Taiwan as China’s weakness and has to poke it from time to time to distract China’s energy. On the Taiwan issue, we do not necessarily need to “break the situation by force”, but writers must be armed. It is always unreliable to place hopes on other factors.
We will not talk about specific military plans here, but about Taiwan’s important military status to our country. Taking Taiwan means that the first island chain painstakingly arranged by the United States has completely failed (although it is now in name only). The two major allies of the United States in East Asia, Japan and South Korea, will soon face the powerful maritime power of the people’s Liberation Army in the southeast. ASEAN countries will also feel the military pressure from China at home for the first time, and China’s maritime direction will be completely opened up. Although it is not said that the world will be determined by the propaganda, it is enough to make the United States face greater layout pressure in Asia. Taiwan’s military value is as high as the number of aircraft carriers. Moreover, we are clear about the disposition of the Americans. They are absolutely not afraid to use force to solve problems. To enhance their military strength, we also consider preventing them from jumping over the wall.
At the end of the article, the author has something to say
Only the men of the Fu clique have fun. The road is dark and dangerous. Although the road is tortuous, the future is always bright. In the final analysis, no matter how the politicians in the United States design chess games and lay traps, they need to implement them in order to be effective. However, how much executive power is left in the United States? The return of manufacturing industry has been advocated since the trump era. Obama was the first to put forward the slogan of returning to the Asia Pacific region. Biden and his leadership are more like a papersmith of a fallen empire. Facing the situation of pressing the gourd and floating the ladle, they can only come up with a seemingly perfect plan, but can not consider how to implement the plan.
However, for us, it is still the same principle that “internal saints and external kings”. Only by cultivating internal skills can we open a breakthrough in the external world. There is no hurry. If we are in a hurry, Biden, whose support rate has dropped to 36% on the other side of the ocean, is the most urgent. The more provocative the United States is, the more it shows its teeth and claws, the more it proves that its tactics will be exhausted. Otherwise, when has this country that pursues hegemonism and power politics been so calm? I will look at the crabs with cold eyes and see how long you have been wandering!