Antony Blinken’s weakness: great changes in US China policy in the past four years!

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Author: brother Mao, this article is reproduced under the authorization of the official account brother Mao’s vision (id:maogeshijue).

On May 26, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivered a speech on Biden administration’s China strategy at George Washington University. The speech was regarded by the outside world as the “keynote speech” of the US policy towards China and received wide attention.

I have listened to this 40 minute speech over and over again. Here are my views.


Three speeches

First of all, Antony Blinken’s speech is not only full of lies, but also a lot of inconsistencies.

For example, they claim to avoid a “new cold war” with China, but they throw out a series of plans to establish a “strategic environment in line with the vision of the US” around China; He hoped to establish the so-called “open and inclusive international system” and accused “China is the most serious long-term challenge to the world order”; They are targeting China everywhere, venting their dissatisfaction with China with all kinds of fabricated lies, but they have repeatedly deliberately emphasized “no intention to contain (China)” and “no cold war with China”.

Many people commented that Antony Blinken’s speech showed the hypocrisy and double talk of the US administration. However, I have a somewhat different view. In my opinion, the speech by Antony Blinken fully exposed the current situation of the United States, which is tough but weak.


(source: World Wide Web)

I have a basis for making this judgment – as the saying goes, there is no harm without comparison. Let me take a look at what vice president burns and Secretary of state pompeio said when they elaborated on their China policy during the trump administration.

In 2018, burns delivered a murderous speech in a us think tank, which was widely praised as a declaration that the United States would launch a new cold war against China. Here are some excerpts from burns’ remarks:

… I am here today because the American people have the right to know this. That is, at this moment, Beijing is using a government wide means, using political, economic, military tools and propaganda to promote its influence and interests in the United States.

China is also more active than ever in using its power to influence and interfere in the domestic policies and politics of the United States.

Under the leadership of President trump, the United States has used our principles and policies to launch a decisive counterattack against China’s actions.

… China showed its aggressive behavior this week. A Chinese warship approached the US warship “Decatur”, which was sailing freely in the South China Sea. The distance between the two warships was less than 45 yards, forcing our warships to quickly take collision avoidance actions.

Despite such reckless harassment, the US Navy will continue to fly, navigate and operate within the limits permitted by international law and in the interests of our country. We will not be intimidated; We will not shrink back.

… on the contrary, China has chosen economic aggression, which has strengthened the courage of China’s expanding army.

… we will continue to take action against Beijing until the theft of American intellectual property rights disappears forever. We will continue to stand firm until the Chinese government stops the predatory practice of forcible technology transfer. We will protect the private property interests of American businesses.

There is no doubt that burns’ speech about China is also full of lies and slanders, but compared with Antony Blinken, Burns’ speech has a more murderous and threatening momentum.

Burns not only made very serious accusations against China, such as “economic aggression”, such as “influencing and interfering in the domestic policies and politics of the United States”, but also made very confrontational descriptions of the response of the United States——

“Start to launch a decisive counterattack against China’s actions”;

“The United States Navy will continue to fly, navigate and operate within the scope permitted by international law and as required by our national interests. We will not be intimidated; we will not shrink back”;

“We will continue to take action against Beijing…”

Next, let’s take a look at the words of Antony Blinken’s predecessor pompeio’s speech on China. It happens that Xinhua news agency has an article titled “pompeio’s speech on China full of lies and facts”. Here are some excerpts of pompeio’s remarks.

“China is not a free country. The 1.4 billion Chinese people are monitored and persecuted at home. China repeats the mistakes made by the Soviet Union and refuses to give the people property rights and a predictable society ruled by law.”

“China undermines the rule-based order established by the free world. The actions of the Communist Party of China are the biggest challenge for the free world. The free world must overcome the new tyranny. Free countries need to establish a new democratic alliance to deal with the Communist Party of China. Countries that choose the United States do not choose between the United States and China, but between freedom and tyranny.”

“The United States can no longer ignore the fundamental political and ideological differences between the United States and China, just as the Communist Party of China has never ignored this difference. We must adopt more creative and bold ways to promote the Communist Party of China to change its behavior.”

“China illegally claims the sovereignty rights and interests in the South China Sea and tramples on international law on the South China Sea issue.”

“The United States should prevent China’s aggression and expansion by strengthening free cruising operations in the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait and forming space forces.”

“(the United States) should adopt a” mistrust and verification “approach in dealing with China.”

Compared with burns, Pompeo’s accusations against China are even more excessive. He has raised the disputes between China and the United States from the economic field to politics and ideology. He has not only described China as an unforgivable “evil country” through various fabricated lies, but also made no secret of the malicious response of the United States——

“We must adopt more creative and courageous ways to promote the CPC to change its behavior.”

“(the United States) should adopt a” mistrust and verification “approach in dealing with China.”

Compare the speeches of burns and pampeo in the past. Let’s take a look at the feeling of Antony Blinken’s speech?

Obviously, the momentum is a lot worse!

Although Antony Blinken’s speech also criticized China with some fabricated lies, the tone has been lowered a lot. The most important thing is that there is no cruel word in the whole speech from beginning to end! Instead, he repeatedly stressed that he had no intention to contain China and that he would not fight a cold war with China.

Some people may say that this is the hypocrisy of the Democratic Party. On the surface, there are a lot of good things to say, but in private, what should be done about bad things.

However, the big country game is not such a logic!

What is the Biden administration’s basic strategy towards China?

It is nothing more than uniting allies to fight China together. However, if the leading brother of the United States dare not even say a cruel word to China, the biggest competitor, and expresses vaguely that he wants to… And will not (fight a new cold war with China)——

What do you think of the little brother?

Who will take a chestnut out of the fire for you?


US Japan India Australia “Quartet mechanism” Summit

So why did Antony Blinken seem so “weak” relative to his predecessor?

Because the internal strength is insufficient, because the external force does not follow the heart!


Beset with difficulties at home and abroad

In 2018, China’s GDP was only about 60% of that of the United States, and the economic growth of the United States maintained a strong momentum under the stimulus of Trump’s tax cuts and other new policies. Therefore, burns and Peng PEO naturally have the confidence to maintain a tough attitude towards China.

What about the United States now?

Not only is the economic gap with China shrinking rapidly (China’s GDP in 2021 was about 77% of that of the United States), but also the United States is facing a serious stagflation crisis (the inflation index in April was 8.5%, and the GDP declined by 1.3% in the first quarter). With this ebb and flow, the United States has little confidence to remain as tough as it was in the trump era.

The above is still a lack of confidence at home. Next, let’s take a look at the inadequacy of external efforts.

What is the global situation now?

To put it mildly, it is a great change that has not been seen in a century. To put it mildly, the United States has lost its deer, and the world is chasing it:

Saudi Arabia and Iran are flirting. Oil producing countries in the Middle East are ready to publicly settle in RMB;

Serbia leaped across Europe, and a big country in the East directly sent a number of 20 planes to transport a large amount of “materials” to it;

The Burmese military government has killed all the NLD, while the United States basically pretends not to see it;

Solomon Islands swaggered and signed a security framework agreement with China, but the United States’ opposition was invalid;

Guevara began to dig French corners in Central Africa;

Turkey suddenly became a thorn in NATO, blocking Finland and Sweden from joining it;

The EU has already compromised and used the ruble to buy Russian energy;

Germany and France began to hold peace talks with Russia independently of the United States;

North Korea is holding back from launching three more missiles after Biden left East Asia

In the United States in the trump era, although oneortwo spikes occasionally jumped out to quarrel with the United States, the United States is still the leader in the Middle East, Northeast Asia, Europe and NATO, and the world dares not to follow its orders.

But now?

The assassins who were uncertain in the past are still uncertain – including the Taliban, Iran, North Korea and Russia;

Moreover, in the traditional sphere of influence of the United States, more and more assassins are gradually emerging – OPEC, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates cannot be established in the Middle East; In the European Union, Serbia and Hungary can not be settled, and even Germany and France have two minds; In NATO, the United States is not even sure about Turkey;

In the past, the international order dominated by the United States has shown signs of collapse.


Antony Blinken’s deep meaning

Why did Antony Blinken repeatedly emphasize avoiding a “new cold war” with China?

The reason is very simple. To engage in the cold war, it is necessary to win over a handful of younger brothers to engage in confrontation with China. The United States does not want to do so, but there is no younger brother willing to cooperate.

In Europe, some EU member states may follow the United States in ideology to sing a few high-profile words, but privately, they will still do what business should be done; Occasionally, oneortwo small countries, such as Lithuania, want to step on the red line, and the final result is disastrous——

Lithuania’s trade volume with China has not only shrunk to 0.3% in the past, but also because European powers cut off the industrial chain with Lithuania and superimposed the impact of the Russian Ukrainian war, Lithuania’s inflation index has soared to 18% recently, ranking first in Europe!

In Asia, the United States has made great efforts to win over ASEAN, but the effect is not ideal.

On March 28, the United States held a U.S. – ASEAN Summit and invited leaders of ASEAN countries to attend. Unfortunately, there was no leader from ASEAN except Singapore. It was embarrassing that the host invited the guests but did not come.

In May, the United States once again organized the US ASEAN summit. This time, the United States did its homework and spread the word that it was ready to invest in ASEAN. In the spirit of not eating for nothing, several ASEAN leaders attended this time.

However, after attending the meeting, we found that the so-called invitation of the United States was just a dish of melon seeds on the table. After the meeting, Biden announced that he was going to invest 150million US dollars in ASEAN. Each of the ten ASEAN countries could get 15million US dollars on average.


(source: observer network)

What can this money do? To put it mildly, top American financial institutions (such as Goldman Sachs) spend more public relations fees in these countries every year than this!

Then, Biden visited East Asia on May 520. This time, the United States has come up with an ambitious Indian Pacific economic framework, which focuses on the restructuring of the industrial chain – to put it bluntly, it is trying to transfer China’s manufacturing industrial chain to Southeast Asia.


(source: World Wide Web)

This is what all previous US presidents want to do, so ASEAN countries have basically participated. Let’s see how the United States is going to play its cards this time.

It must be said here that in the past, successive U.S. presidents have made concrete actions to transfer China’s industrial chain, and they have actually paid a price.

For example, Obama’s idea is to engage in TPP to reduce tariffs and open the U.S. market to attract the participation of ASEAN countries;

Trump’s idea is to fight a trade war by imposing huge tariffs on Chinese goods, so as to guide the transfer of the industrial chain to ASEAN;

Although Obama’s TPP was abolished by trump, the trade war has indeed benefited ASEAN a lot.

However, this time, Biden’s economic framework for India and the Pacific is completely empty. It doesn’t involve any tariff relief at all. It is similar to an economic forum. To put it bluntly, he doesn’t want to pay any price for whoring in vain. Can it be that several conversations between the United States and the ASEAN government’s high-level organizations can transfer China’s manufacturing industry chain to ASEAN?

Not only that, Biden also publicly announced that he was considering canceling the tariffs imposed on China – which is not contrary to the original intention of transferring China’s industrial chain?

Moreover, China has been the largest trading partner of ASEAN for 13 consecutive years. In 2021, the trade volume between China and ASEAN reached US $878.2 billion. With the formal entry into force of the RECP in January this year, the economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN will be further expanded.

How can the United States throw out an empty Indian Pacific economic framework to alienate China ASEAN relations?

Therefore, disappointed ASEAN countries have publicly stated that they will not choose sides between China and the United States. Even Singapore, which has the strongest relationship with the United States, talked about the Indian Pacific Economic Framework on May 23, saying that if it does not develop trade with China, it will not only pay a high price for Singapore’s economic development, but also create more friction.


(source: World Wide Web)

Therefore, Antony Blinken has repeatedly stressed that he “has no intention of containing China” and “will not fight a cold war with China”. In a sense, it is not only for China, but also for Asian partners who hope to win over – you should try your best to participate in what activities the United States will engage in in in in the future. I guarantee that the United States has no intention of fighting a new cold war with China, so it will not force you to choose sides.


Tit for tat

I don’t believe Antony Blinken’s statement of “no intention to contain (China)” and “no cold war with China”.

Therefore, while the United States is building a strategic encirclement in East Asia, China should also play a tit for tat game.

Biden’s visit to South Korea and Japan, China has also made moves.

On May 24, according to South Korean media reports, six Chinese and Russian military aircraft once entered the aviation identification zone in eastern South Korea;


(source: World Wide Web)

China is more targeted at Japan’s recent dangerous remarks.

On May 24, the aircraft carrier Liaoning of the Chinese Navy returned to the East China Sea from the Pacific Ocean via the sea area between Okinawa and Miyako.

Since the beginning of May, the Liaoning aircraft carrier formation has crossed the Miyako Strait of Japan and entered the Western Pacific Ocean. It has carried out more than 20 days of maritime exercises. Carrier aircraft have carried out more than 300 high-frequency take-off and landing exercises, which is interpreted by the outside world as a highly practical exercise.

Key words: aircraft carrier formation, sea area near Japan, actual combat exercise.

Continue to exert pressure on an island in the southeast.



If the above cards are more or less defensive around the first island chain, then we also have offensive cards.

For example, behind the enemy lines, diplomatic efforts should be made.


(source: Xinhuanet)

It is said that in South American countries, a big eastern country is actively brewing an economic framework cooperation agreement. Compared with the Indian Pacific economic framework, the economic framework cooperation agreement given by a big eastern country is good-looking, delicious and affordable.

On May 23, the US foreign policy published an article saying that for the US, Argentina’s embrace of China should be a wake-up call. The article particularly emphasizes that the United States will host the summit of the Americas in June, but this meeting may be a disaster, because the leaders of major South American countries may boycott the summit at that time.

This is really going deep behind the enemy lines.

The above is the background of Antony Blinken’s speech on China policy on May 26.

5 looking forward to the future

On the one hand, the global situation is full of flames, especially the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually reversed; On the one hand, it was cold in East Asia to win over ASEAN to encircle China; On the one hand, China’s counterattack is sharp.

Therefore, with insufficient confidence and strength, Antony Blinken had to lower his voice and try his best to release the signal of moderation in the hope that the intensity of the Sino US game would be reduced – Antony Blinken even praised China as a great country in his speech on China policy, which was never heard of in the days of burns and pampeo?

After all, for the beleaguered Biden administration, food should be eaten one mouthful at a time and things should be done one by one.

The game between China and the United States is a long-term process. The Biden administration should first control the rising inflation internally and deal with the mid-term elections; Externally, we should deal with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In case Ukraine is unable to withstand it, we should also try to wipe our buttocks to find a way to step down for ourselves.

As for containment and suppression of China, it is not a top priority yet. We can only put it on the back burner.

After all, the game of great powers is one ebb and flow. Antony Blinken lowered his stance, then it is China’s turn to raise the tone – on May 28, China and Russia flatly rejected the resolution of the United States on additional sanctions against North Korea in the United Nations Security Council, and the Chinese representative to the United Nations also made harsh remarks: if someone wants to burn the war to Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula, China has no choice but to take resolute measures!


(source: World Wide Web)

It was a good shot.

First of all, it is well known that the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war is the result of the United States’ continuous arch fire. Now Biden visits East Asia to win over Japan and South Korea to engage in a small circle of arch fire confrontation, which is the same as the United States’ arch fire in Eastern Europe;

Secondly, China’s attitude is very clear. It will never allow the United States to create another Asian version of the Russian Ukrainian conflict in East Asia. Therefore, it is natural to veto sanctions against North Korea.

Third, this is an implicit warning to a country in East Asia that it will never come to a good end to act as the pawn agent of the United States. Ukraine is a ready-made example.

Looking back on Burns’ Anti China speech in 2018, and then looking at the current Antony Blinken’s speech, however, in a short period of four years, there have been many changes, so that I have a new idea——

What will happen to the balance of power between China and the United States in the next four years? What new wording will the new US Secretary of state make in his speech on China policy?

Really looking forward to it!

This article is reproduced under the authorization of official account brother Mao’s vision (id:maogeshijue).

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