Original: Zhanhao Source: official account: Zhanhao WeChat ID: zhanhao668
Will Serbia fight?
To be frank, Zhan Hao discussed this issue more than a year ago when the Russo Ukrainian War just broke out. At that time, Zhan Hao’s analysis conclusion was that the Russia Ukraine war would accelerate the global political and economic restructuring, and it would change the world’s pattern.
Later, according to former US Secretary of State Kissinger, the United States positioned this war as a restructuring of the political and economic order in Eastern Europe. In fact, Zhan Hao positioned it as a breakthrough point for the accelerated restructuring of the global political and economic order. It is no exaggeration to say that whoever wins the initiative in this restructuring of the Eastern European political and economic order will gain an advantage in the future restructuring of the global political and economic order.
Given this, whether it is the United States, the European Union, Russia, or China, they will all be very active in responding to this war. Therefore, we have seen that Russia and the United States and NATO are playing happily, while China intervenes in mediation with a neutral attitude and high profile.
The United States is very concerned about this situation, so it hopes that the Russia Ukraine war can be resolved quickly and an agreement can be reached with Russia as soon as possible. Kissinger publicly shouted on behalf of the US government that if Russia allows Ukraine to join NATO, then the US will recognize the Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia and use it as a boundary to form stability.
The purpose of the United States is to let go of Russia and make every effort to deal with China. However, Russia understands in its heart that as long as Russia allows Ukraine to join NATO, the biggest injury will be to Russia, because the United States will deploy nuclear weapons to Ukraine, and then compete with Russia for East Ukraine, which is Russia’s real nightmare. So, Russia did not ignore the conditions offered by the United States and directly expressed its attitude to the United States by bombing Ukraine.
What is the relationship between the above situation and Serbia?
More than a year ago, Zhan Hao emphasized in his analysis that the Russo Ukrainian War was a place of intense competition among major powers. As this war was a proxy war between the United States, NATO, and Russia, and was related to the accelerated restructuring of global politics and economy, the risk of war spillovers was very high. At that time, Zhan Hao gave several possible points for military conflicts, including Serbia, the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea. Among these points, Serbia, the Korean Peninsula, and the Middle East region are the places where wars spill over and military conflicts are most likely to erupt.
So, some comrades may ask, why did Serbia possibly erupt into conflict after the outbreak of the Russo Ukrainian War?
In Zhan Hao’s view, there are three fundamental reasons behind this:
1? The long-term effects of geopolitical factors
Today’s geopolitical situation is still nothing new to say. The suffering of Serbia today ultimately boils down to the legacy of the Cold War at work. Let’s take a look at the new Cold War geopolitical map below. In the map, the location of the Balkan Peninsula is the forefront of competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. Everyone, pay attention to the location of Yugoslavia. It is at the forefront of the Soviet camp and also under the semi encirclement of NATO.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Federal Germany and Democratic Germany were unified. Czechoslovakia was classified as two countries that fell into the embrace of the West, Poland into the embrace of the West, Hungary into the embrace of the West, Romania into the embrace of the West, Bulgaria into the embrace of the West, Albania into the embrace of the West. As for Yugoslavia, which was at the forefront of geopolitical struggle, it was directly divided into six countries. Everyone, look at the map below. Yugoslavia has been dismembered by the West into six countries: Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Macedonia. Kosovo is now a region that has further become independent.
Of course, the collapse of the Soviet Union directly disintegrated into 15 countries, and Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia, the three Baltic countries, all fell into the embrace of the West and were very anti Russian. So, the current Ukrainian war is the geopolitical conflict between the United States, NATO, and Russia after the Cold War, and it is Russia’s counterattack against NATO’s sixth round of eastward expansion after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
So, let’s now look at the powder keg of the Balkan Peninsula in Europe, where the entire region has joined NATO. Moreover, after NATO’s castration of Yugoslavia, Serbia now has no access to sea. Serbia has been surrounded by NATO on the Balkan Peninsula. Why is Serbia so difficult? Without territorial waters, there is no sea outlet, and the sea is blocked; Surrounded by NATO countries on land, without even a airspace to receive external assistance… how difficult it is for a country to survive under NATO’s encirclement!
After the dissolution of Yugoslavia by the West, the Republic of Serbia and the Republic of Montenegro established a federal Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, also known as the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia inherited the main body of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and during the process of NATO’s eastward expansion, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia has been trying to maintain neutrality and resist NATO’s eastward expansion.
However, against the backdrop of Russia’s weakness, who can protect the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia? In order to continue the division of the Balkan Peninsula, the United States and NATO launched a 78 day air strike on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999, ultimately overthrowing the Milosevic regime. During this process, the US and NATO also owed a blood debt to the Chinese people and bombed the Chinese Embassy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. This blood debt will be repaid sooner or later!
In order to facilitate the establishment of a loose national community between Serbia and Montenegro, the United States and NATO, through coercion and inducement, finally promoted the adoption of the “Serbia and Montenegro Charter” by the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Parliament in 2003, changing the country’s name to “Serbia and Montenegro”. In addition to the common president, unified military, diplomatic and other state powers, Serbia and Montenegro have different laws, customs, currency, and even border defense forces. The charter also stipulates that three years later, The two member states have the right to decide, through a referendum, whether to establish a separate portal and become independent countries. On June 3, 2006, Serbia and Montenegro disintegrated, and Montenegro “voted” for independence, which also resulted in Serbia losing its port of entry to the sea and becoming a landlocked country.
During Russia’s weakest period, the US and NATO pushed for the dissolution of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and ultimately further castrated Serbia, making it a landlocked country. Now, with the outbreak of the Russo Ukrainian War, Russia once again has no time to worry, and the US and NATO are starting to think about action again!
2? The Strategic Impulse of the United States and Europe
Against this backdrop, there is no doubt that the United States and Europe are strategically impulsive in addressing the Serbian issue? What impulse? The impulse to further divide Serbia. In fact, after the bombing of the Yugoslavia in 1999, only the dismemberment of the Yugoslavia had not yet achieved the Western goal, and the United States and the West were determined to eat Serbia.
However, compared to other countries that have split from Yugoslavia and embraced the United States and the West, Serbia is the country that truly inherits the political bloodline of Yugoslavia. Under such a background, the United States and the West consider it risky to accept Serbia into the embrace of the West in such a way, which is the fundamental reason why the European Union has been slow to accept Serbia.
More importantly, the United States and the West want to further dismember Serbia, and the Kosovo issue is the specific action of the United States and the West. The 1999 US NATO airstrikes were triggered by the Kosovo issue, but the Kosovo issue has not been resolved to this day. The United States and Europe have long recognized Kosovo’s sovereignty, but on the one hand, Serbia does not recognize it, and on the other hand, countries such as China and Russia do not recognize it, so the Kosovo issue has been put on hold.
And this time, both the United States and Europe are pressuring Serbia to recognize Kosovo’s independence. However, the Vuchi ? government is resilient and does not recognize Kosovo’s independence. The reason why the United States and the West are frequently exerting pressure now is that Russia is caught up in the Russo Ukrainian War and has no time to consider Serbia. The United States and Europe want to seize the opportunity to rob.
3? Impulse of the Kosovo Provisional Authority
The Serbian President’s summary of the actions of the Kosovo Provisional Authority is that the Kosovo authorities want to be the second in Zelensky. To put it bluntly, the Kosovo Provisional Authority has also seen an opportunity. They believe that this is the best time to seek independence, so they constantly put pressure on the Kosovo Serbs, trying to provoke regional conflicts.
The Kosovo authorities believe that once it is picked up, the United States and NATO will not ignore it. In the end, Serbia will not be able to wriggle its thighs, and Kosovo can achieve independence. This is the wishful thinking of the Kosovo authorities and also a strategic impulse.
The combination of the above three factors ultimately led to the continuous Koso crisis, and the Serbian Vuchi ? government has reached an unbearable point. Because the Vulcan government is not willing to give up the sovereignty of Kosovo, and as long as Kosovo is taken away by the United States and the West, they will still not accept Serbia, but will find a way to carry out a new round of dismemberment of Serbia.
Regarding the crisis in Serbia, Vuchi ? urgently met with the ambassadors of China and Russia to Serbia before meeting with the five countries in the United States and Europe, which was clearly seeking support. China is very clear in its stance and supports it!
At a regular press conference on May 30th, spokesperson Maoning stated that China is highly concerned about the relevant developments, supports Serbia’s efforts to maintain sovereignty and territorial integrity, opposes unilateral actions by the Provisional Institutions of Self-Government in Pristina, and calls for the implementation of the obligation to form the Serbian City Alliance. We advise NATO to effectively respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of relevant countries and truly do things that are conducive to regional peace, “Mao Ning said.
China’s words carry a lot of weight. Why? Because China does not recognize Kosovo, its legitimacy will always be a problem. Even if it is recognized as independent by the West today, as long as China does not recognize it, there is a possibility of a comeback in the future. Because China’s strength determines all of this.
So, do the US and NATO dare to fight this war? In Zhan Hao’s view, NATO is now trying to force Wu Qiqi to make concessions, but he is also afraid to fight easily. The reason is very simple. The Russo Ukrainian War has already caused serious depletion to the US and NATO. If we provoke a war in Serbia, the US and NATO will fall into the quagmire of war, which will cause a drag on the US. So, the US and NATO do not want to fight, but they want the Serbian Vuchi ? government to give up resistance.
Of course, Wu Qiqi also saw this, so he was very persistent. The more dangerous point now is that the Kosovo authorities may have an impulse to escalate conflicts. Once the Kosovo Provisional Authority crazily instigates conflicts, then once war breaks out, anything can happen!
Putin is happy to see the conflict between Serbia and the United States and the West succeed, as it will reduce Russia’s military pressure! Once Europe starts another war, especially in the Balkan region, which is closer to the hinterland of Europe, it will undoubtedly be a major benefit for Russia!
A new war may start at any time, and Serbia is an area where military conflicts may erupt. We must remain highly vigilant and be prepared to take measures at any time!