Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (id:rongping898) has been authorized to reprint
On May 26, when delivering a speech on China policy, Antony Blinken said two very important words.
The first sentence is that the “long-term threat” posed by China is even more serious than that posed by Russia, because China is “the only country that has both the intention to reshape the international order” and increasingly has strong strength to do so.
So how does the United States deal with this “only” opponent?
This is the second sentence of Antony Blinken, that is, although the United States is unable to change China, it can restrict China’s foreign actions by “shaping the strategic environment around China”.
In other words, it is impossible to stop China from the front. Therefore, it is necessary to catch China in the surrounding areas and use various means to delay China’s rise.
How can you pull a net and make a trip?
Let’s look at Biden’s recent moves, from standing in line with the ASEAN, to sacrificing the “Indian Pacific Economic Structure” to isolate China, visiting the Asia Pacific personally to attend the “Quartet security dialogue” held in Japan, and then deliberately “making a slip of the tongue” in Japan to “help defend Taiwan”, including the continuous exaggeration of the so-called “Xinjiang issue”, all of which are actually “shaping the strategic environment around China” and pulling a wire mesh around China.
Let’s not say how effective these tactics are. From the perspective of China, the struggle is becoming increasingly urgent. Can we watch the United States dig traps for us?
Of course not!
Thus, the United States is playing the game, and China has begun to break the game——
On May 26, on the same day that Antony Blinken announced his China policy, foreign minister Wangyi began his official visit to the eight countries in the South Pacific, and hosted the second “China Pacific island foreign ministers’ meeting” in Fiji. During the ten days, the schedule was so intensive that almost all the South Pacific island countries (hereinafter referred to as “South Pacific island countries”) that established diplomatic relations with China had been visited!
As you know, the last “China Pacific island foreign ministers’ meeting” was held in October last year. In just seven months, we have convened the second meeting.
In addition, Biden has just visited India and the Pacific, and Australia has just changed its presidency. It is really rare that he made a big move of “full coverage visit”.
So why should we choose the South Pacific to break the game?
The broken situation in the South Pacific
Indeed, compared with the “East Asian monster house” around China, the South Pacific island has one country, which basically has no sense of existence. Most people can’t pronounce the names of the Northern Mariana Islands, Micronesia, Wallis and Futuna.
However, the greatest value of the South Pacific island country is that it is well located in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, close to Australia and New Zealand to the south, connecting China and Japan to the north, and facing the United States across the sea to the East.
Because of this location, South Pacific island has two values:
For the United States, this is the geographical center of “free and open Indo Pacific”, a necessary place for the operation of the U.S. alliance network, and an indispensable starting point for the “Indo Pacific strategy”.
For China, this is the south end and natural extension of the “21st century Maritime Silk Road”, and it is the inevitable node for China to go to the Pacific.
One of the major goals of the “Indo Pacific strategy” is precisely to hedge the influence of the “the Belt and Road”.
That is to say, the two values of the South Pacific island countries cannot be shared at the same time. In order to promote their respective strategies, China and the United States must maintain their exclusive existence here. Therefore, this will inevitably become the focus of the game between China and the United States.
At a more specific level, the geo strategic significance of the South Pacific island countries is mainly to maintain logistics supply and military power delivery, so that the United States can monopolize the geographical advantage of the Pacific in wartime and connect a strong ally defense line.
For China, the South Pacific is the best base for dominating the Pacific once it needs to open up an open sea war zone.
So, in the military sense, China and the United States are here again!
Although China has not yet put forward any requirements for military cooperation with the South Pacific, and even has taken the initiative to refute rumors that it will not build military bases, one of the main directions of cooperation between China and the South Pacific island countries is to build various infrastructures, including airports, ports and roads. When necessary, these infrastructures can change their functions.
Once China has truly established a foothold in the South Pacific region and established a military outpost, in turn, the South Pacific region will become a fulcrum for China’s logistics supply and military power delivery, which is equivalent to China jumping out of the “encirclement circle” of the United States and creating its own “island chain”. When necessary, it can effectively cut off the links between the United States, Japan and Australia with the help of geographical advantages, including delaying the possible “reinforcement” of the United States to Taiwan.
So when China and Solomon Islands signed the security agreement in April, the United States, Australia, Singapore, Japan and even Germany, which could not beat the odds, jumped out against it. Why?
What they fear is not a security agreement, but the ability that China may develop in the future with the help of the key “base” of the South Pacific!
Relatively speaking, Australia is worse than the United States.
Because the South Pacific island country is close to Australia, these islands have built an arc-shaped barrier in the northeast of Australia, which is usually regarded as Australia’s security “buffer zone”. However, once this place is settled by major countries outside the United States, the “buffer zone” will become an “anti Australian outpost”, which is equivalent to putting the muzzle of the gun directly on the threshold of the kangaroo country.
However, Australia’s own defense capability is not good. It used to rely on Britain, but now it depends on the United States. Don’t look at how Morrison used to shout every day, that is, helping others. If China really forms a military presence in the South Pacific island, which directly threatens Australia’s domestic security, what will Australia do?
Even if China does not use extreme means, Australia is highly dependent on foreign trade. Three of the five maritime trade channels pass through the South Pacific island. Once China strengthens its military presence here, it will still hold Australia by seven inches?
America? For the United States, an ally that does not hold back is a good ally. When China’s military power is infinitely close to the Australian border, is the United States willing to confront China directly? How much resources are willing to invest in Australia to confront China? This is all a problem.
It can be predicted that once China has established a fulcrum in the South Pacific island, Australia’s strategic significance to the United States will be greatly reduced, and the US Australia alliance will certainly be weakened simultaneously. At that time, is there any security for Australia?
Rules of the game
Therefore, foreign minister Wangyi’s visit this time is actually an accurate attack against the “Indo Pacific strategy”.
It not only disrupted the chess game carefully arranged by the United States, but also struck Australia, a key Anti China pawn.
American media also admitted that this visit is likely to be a “game changing bid” for control of the South Pacific region.
If China has made substantial progress during this visit, it will undoubtedly be a heavy blow to the “Indo Pacific strategy” just laid out by Biden himself.
On the contrary, if the South Pacific countries react coldly and pay no attention to China’s cooperation initiatives, then the South Pacific will remain the South Pacific of the United States and Australia, and the defense line of the “India Pacific strategy” will remain stable.
Therefore, around foreign minister Wangyi’s trip, the United States and Australia have recently started a frenzied campaign, and the game between ourselves and the enemy is extremely fierce——
The day before minister Wangyi’s trip, the US State Department came out to “characterize” the cooperation between China and the South Pacific island countries, saying that it was worried that the transaction might be “hasty and opaque”.
This is a button: since the United States has predicted that the cooperation will be “hasty and opaque”, is it reasonable to let the two sides fail to cooperate or try to tear up the agreement later?
As a result, the United States began to make contributions.
First, the president of the Federated States of Micronesia wrote a letter to the 10 South Pacific countries, calling for “careful consideration” of China’s proposal and rejecting China’s draft because China’s ideas are “dishonest”.
Is this “dishonesty” the same as the “haste and opacity” of the United States?
Then, the president made a coquettish move and directly sold the draft prepared by China to the media, making the western media a treasure.
What is the Federated States of Micronesia?
In short, this small South Pacific country is composed of more than 600 islands, which is of great value for controlling the entire Western Pacific.
Because of this, after the Second World War, the country was entrusted by the United States for 40 years. After the end of the trusteeship, the defense was managed by the United States for another 15 years. After the expiration of the 15 years, it was renewed for another 20 years. Together, it was more than 70 years after the Second World War. It was not really independent for a year. Of course, in return, it received a lot of assistance from the United States.
It is a strange thing that a country that is not a colony is better than a colony. It does not follow the United States. The most typical example is that on the second day of the war between Russia and Ukraine, this country jumped out and broke off diplomatic relations with Russia, which is more active than most western allies.
Therefore, it is reasonable for this country to “jump back”.
Just after the performance of the Federated States of Micronesia, former Prime Minister rambuka of Fiji also jumped out.
He said that China is trying to let the South Pacific island countries join the Chinese camp, and the South Pacific countries should be cautious, because the alliance between the South Pacific island countries and Australia has been tested by history, and there are too many “unknown factors” in the cooperation with China.
This is a mine planted by the United States.
Because the current Prime Minister of Fiji, mbeni Malama, came to power through a coup and was unpopular with the West. Instead, he was very close to China and had always helped China to bridge the gap between a number of South Pacific island countries.
The former Prime Minister rambuka was the hot spot in Fiji’s general election at the end of the year. After this statement, the current Prime Minister mbeni Malama’s faction can hardly bear the pressure from the United States and Australia.
In the end, whether it is unable to withstand the pressure to move closer to the United States and Australia, or Fiji changes in the general election at the end of the year, China’s offensive in the South Pacific may indeed produce some variables.
In addition to these shady moves of the United States, Australia, which claims to be the “parent” of the South Pacific island, is not willing to be outdone.
On the 26th, that is, the day foreign minister Wangyi left, Australia’s new foreign minister huangxianying had just finished attending the quadripartite talks in Japan, and was on a nonstop attack on Fiji.
In addition to a bunch of unattractive promises, Huang Xianying’s various crazy hints in Fiji translate into this: We “Pacific Family” should play with ourselves. Even if you want to cooperate, you should also choose Australia as your first choice. Don’t provoke outsiders to come in. Always remember that Oceania controlled by Australia is a good Oceania!
On the same day, in Australia, new prime minister Albanese echoed Huang Xianying from afar, saying that since World War II, Australia has always been the “preferred partner” of the South Pacific countries, so your security cooperation with China is not your own business, and Australia will “respond”.
Domineering? Does it smell like “Deputy Pacific chief”?
In order to support Australia, the United States also specially announced an “explosive” news on this day, announcing that Fiji has become the 14th founding member of the “Indo Pacific economic framework” and the first Pacific island country to join the “framework”.
We have also analyzed the inside story.
As soon as the news came out, the western media immediately began to play up the frustration of China’s offensive in the South Pacific.
Then, the slap came suddenly. Just after Huang Yingxian’s two-day visit, on the 28th, Fiji’s chief executive tweeted a group photo of the two people, with the text “Fiji is not someone else’s backyard”. This corresponds to what Morrison said during the kangaroo election some time ago that “Taipingyang is Australia’s backyard”.
What is more interesting is that the expression “the Pacific Ocean is not someone else’s’ backyard ‘” was said by foreign minister Wangyi on the 26th at the first stop of his visit to Solomon Islands.
What do you mean when you say that the Prime Minister of Fiji is quoting Chinese words word for word from Australia?
As active as Australia, New Zealand is also emerging.
On the same day of the 26th, New Zealand Prime Minister Adrian also stated that the content was similar to that of Australia, that is, our “Pacific Family” can “internally meet” security needs. Why should China come in?
It also raises a naive question to China: why do you want to extend your security presence to the Pacific Ocean?
Joke! If China doesn’t go out of the Pacific, will it be blocked at home by the West like Russia?
Interestingly, after this question was raised, the double standard operation came: the foreign minister of New Zealand first spoke with the foreign minister of Solomon Islands and expressed “concern” about the security cooperation between China and Sri Lanka, probably because Sri Lanka was resolute. Then, the foreign minister of New Zealand and the defense minister announced that the New Zealand Army that went to Solomon Islands last year for peacekeeping decided not to withdraw, but to stay in Solomon Islands for another year!
New Zealand is worried about China’s security presence in the South Pacific region, but New Zealand’s army can come with its mouth open and its face turned off if it stays in other countries?
Of course, the western media are also involved in building momentum.
In the middle of Foreign Minister Wangyi’s trip, the western media were hyping one thing – the highly popular comprehensive cooperation document in advance, that is, the draft sold by the president of the Federated States of Micronesia to the media, was not signed!
Then the western media came to the conclusion that China’s promotion in the South Pacific is not smooth. From the Western lie distribution centers such as BBC and CNN to the media in Taiwan Province, they have been busy speculating about China’s failure in the South Pacific in recent days.
This is a bit shameless again.
The agreement they mentioned is called “China Pacific island countries’ common development vision”, which was put forward by China. It covers a wide range of topics from security to fisheries, economic development, climate change, Internet communication, etc., including cooperation in the establishment of a free trade zone.
Is it possible to sign such a large cooperation plate at a collective foreign ministers’ meeting?
You have to bargain to buy onions. What multilateral cooperation document in the West has not been wrangled for years or even decades?
As a matter of fact, even if the opponent did his best, he did not stop China at all. Foreign minister Wangyi’s visit was just very successful.
Specifically reflected in several aspects——
First of all, foreign minister Wangyi is on an “invited” visit. At the sensitive moment when Biden just visited Asia and showed great enthusiasm for the “Indo Pacific strategy”, and Australia, the traditional “ally leader” of the South Pacific, has just held a general election, it is a positive signal for the South Pacific countries to send this invitation to China.
Secondly, before foreign minister Wangyi’s visit, China had submitted two drafts in advance to the ten South Pacific countries, namely, the previously mentioned vision for the common development of China and the Pacific island countries, and the five-year plan for the common development of China and the Pacific island countries (2022-2026). That is to say, China is leading the agenda of cooperation, and behind this leadership must be strength.
Third, after the public letter of the president of the Federated States of Micronesia “rejecting China” was sent out, none of the other South Pacific countries echoed it. On the contrary, even the US media admitted that where foreign minister Wangyi went, he was able to sign “specific agreements” every day, including the common development vision speculated by the western media, although it was still in the bargaining stage, But in fact, China has successfully put the issue of “security cooperation” concerned by the West on the negotiating table, which is a breakthrough that has never been made before.
However, as long as they are brought to the negotiating table, they can talk and form documents. Even if they talk for a long time, “security cooperation” has actually started. Isn’t that the greatest achievement?
Once the “security cooperation” becomes a reality, how much imagination will China have in the Pacific Ocean, the traditional “Inner Lake” of the United States?
At that time, what is the use of China successfully breaking through the “Indo Pacific strategy”?
Even when China takes the initiative in the vast Pacific Ocean, how many countries, such as the United States, Australia and Japan, will fall into passivity?
It can be said that the rules of the game in the South Pacific region have changed under the leadership of China!
At the end of the article, the author has something to say
The South Pacific countries welcome China because China has advantages that the United States and Australia do not have.
Geographically, the South Pacific has always been taken for granted by the United States and Australia. However, the ansa group is used to being hegemonic. Before China set foot in the Pacific Ocean, it basically regarded the South Pacific countries as second-class colonies. It not only asked you to kneel down and obey, but also allowed you to be poor. I didn’t take a look at you from the corner of my eye.
It was not until the United States launched the “Indo Pacific strategy” in recent years that it suddenly found that China had become unstoppable in the South Pacific, so they immediately attached importance to it. However, the so-called attention was also old-fashioned.
For example, Antony Blinken put it bluntly that the U.S. intervention is “to counter China’s influence”. How can we counter it? Two points: one is to promote the “democracy construction” here and ensure the control of “American democracy”; The second is to deploy “advanced combat capabilities”, that is, to expand the US military presence.
Australia’s intervention was even rougher. Last year, there were riots and separations in Solomon Islands, which were instigated by a regional power. This country is Australia. After the signing of the China Institute of security agreement, Australia even said that it would overthrow the Solomon government. Which neighboring country would be convinced of this?
China’s approach is completely different. First of all, China has no habit of colonial oppression and does not agree with the “backyard theory”. It is also the only major country in the world that can balance the United States and Australia.
Secondly, since the United States and Australia have no intention, their economic structure is also unable to drive the development of the South Pacific countries. However, China is different. As a country in the whole industrial chain, it needs production capacity, technology, commodities and markets, which can meet the needs of these countries.
Let’s say that foreign minister Wangyi promised to cooperate with island countries to build six major platforms, including emergency material reserves, response to climate change, poverty reduction and development, agricultural cooperation, disaster prevention and mitigation, and mycorrhizal technology. All these countries are in urgent need of and can’t help. Is this not much more than what the United States and Australia say about “democracy building”, “military cooperation” and “the Pacific Family”?
To put it bluntly, the United States and Australia are still carrying out the old things of colonialism a hundred years ago, and can not find new tricks. However, China is proposing another “soft export” model based on commerce.
China disdains to learn from the United States and Australia, and the United States and Australia cannot learn from China.
However, just seeing that under the continuous pressure from the United States and Australia, the vast majority of South Pacific island countries are firmly approaching with China, we can know which model is more effective.
At present, China has signed the memorandum of understanding on the “the Belt and Road” with 10 countries in the South Pacific that have established diplomatic relations. More than half of the export products of these countries have been sold to China. Even during the epidemic period, the trade volume between the two sides has also increased significantly. In the long run, China’s foundation in the South Pacific will only become more and more stable unknowingly.
It depends on whether the rusty “American democracy” in the United States can keep up with the broken situation in China!