Assassinate Abe to vent his personal anger? The death of the former Prime Minister of Japan may not be so simple.

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Source: great rain watching nerve

Simple assassination?




The assassination of Shinzo Abe is undoubtedly one of the most serious political events this year. In previous years, the “one” can even be removed, but there are too many facts this year, and you may have to get used to it.


I believe you were a little confused when you just saw this news yesterday. After all, it was at the beginning of last century that the last Japanese politician of the same weight was successfully assassinated.

So it’s hard not to let people think about it. Let’s do a simple review and analysis today.

Let’s go back to the event itself.

According to the information received so far, the assassin is a veteran named Takeshi Yamauchi, who recently resigned from the company (because he was tired). Taking advantage of Abe’s speech, he fired two shots from behind at close range. The first shot seemed to miss the target, but the second shot successfully knocked Abe down.


The assassin was arrested on the spot and was arrested for interrogation. At present, the motive of the crime is related to religion. Yamayama’s mother was deeply involved in a religious group and donated a large amount of funds, which led to difficulties in family life. Yamayama was very dissatisfied with this and decided to retaliate against the religious group. The reason for the attack on Abe was that he believed that “Abe was closely related to the religious group”.

Let’s be fair here. This elder brother is too ungrateful. You are dissatisfied with religious groups. Shouldn’t the first target be the cadres within the group? Why attack a person who is only “related to the group” first?

In fact, Yamaguchi also explained this question. His statement was that he was really going to attack a cadre of the group, but the cadre didn’t appear, and he “just met Abe”, so he simply “did a big job”. Anyway, he was dissatisfied with Abe.

According to him, he has a good relationship with Abe.

During the interrogation, the staff also found that the assassin was confused and had some mental problems.

Japan is a country with strict gun control. The number of people killed by gunfire in a year is less than one tenth of that in the United States. The former prime minister was assassinated by gunfire, which is similar to winning the lottery. So the first thing we are curious about is where this guy’s gun came from.


In a country with strict gun control, it is easy to find out a large number of relevant clues through the tracing of the gun itself.

At the beginning, it was said that the veteran took advantage of his position to get a pistol. If so, it would involve many people, and it was inevitable to find out that the radish brought mud. However, with the further disclosure of the information of the case, we found that this man’s gun was self-made.

This is a shotgun with two steel tubes as the main body. Many parts inside are made by 3D printing. The barrel is filled with gunpowder and a large number of steel balls, and the battery wire is used to fire the primer. After the gunpowder explodes, several steel balls are shot to kill the target. Because there are two barrels, two shots can be fired. A laser pen is also tied at the bottom of the barrel to assist in aiming.


Compared with regular weapons, this thing is undoubtedly very simple. But according to the standard of DIY, it is very practical and exquisite, which fully reflects the innovative thinking and craftsman spirit of the manufacturer.

In fact, he didn’t just DIY one. Later, the police also searched his home for various multi barrel shotguns, including 5, 6 and 9, “shotgun Craftsmanship” belongs to yes.


Seeing here, this case is easy to close.

A veteran who was insane because of dissatisfaction with society and a religion, relying on his professional skills developed in his military career, assassinated the former prime minister in order to vent his personal anger.

The perfect closed loop is a crazy wolf who walks alone, and there is no one involved. I guess this case is finally settled in this way. Maybe you’ll kill yourself in a few days.

As people who eat melon hot pot and drink beer, they really can’t find anything wrong. If there is any problem, it is that this case is “too perfect”.

A series of reasonable details in this form a wonderful picture: a passing madman, with a homemade gun, killed the core figures in Japanese politics in broad daylight.


Do you believe it?

Doubtful points



In any normal country, core politicians enjoy the highest level of local security services. Although Abe stepped down, his annual security cost is still more than 10million yuan. Japanese politics is a Jianghu. Abe’s leaving his job does not affect his Jianghu status. He is still a brother in this circle. At that time, there were at least 20 people around him in charge of security.

As a result, Japan’s highest level security defense line was broken by a madman with an earth gun. Is this reasonable? This is unreasonable.

About the assassination of political leaders, there is a famous event, that is, the Sarajevo incident more than 100 years ago.

The young assassins in Sarajevo shot three times to kill the Archduke Ferdinand and his wife who were visiting the local area by car. Many times, our understanding of this period of history is a brush, leaving the impression that “a young Sarajevo ignited the first World War”.


However, if we look at this history carefully, we will find that the reality is as follows:

The shooting of Archduke Ferdinand was the second wave of assassinations that occurred that day. The first wave of assassinations was grenade throwing, but Ferdinand dodged it. What’s more frightening is that even if the second wave of assassinations did not succeed, there are still a dozen people waiting behind. In Ferdinand’s next trips, even in the hotel where they stayed, assassins had been ambushed.

This “World War I fuse” is not one, but a bundle.

Historical experience tells us that it is never possible for a person to attack the highest standard of security defense in a country (people around him jump and start fighting, another saying). The closer a country is to the modern level, the more so.

Let’s go back and see what the Japanese assassin needs to accomplish to achieve his goal.

First, homemade weapons. This requires professional technology and materials. Even if he has a solid foundation in engineering technology and materials such as steel tube batteries are successfully obtained, where does the gunpowder of the weapon standard come from? He either has a special channel, or he gets some help.

After the weapons are ready, the next step is to find a chance to squat Abe, which requires the assassin to know Abe’s journey like the back of his hand. If Abe announced his future schedule early, this problem would not be difficult to solve. However, it is surprising and confusing that Nara, where the murder occurred, was not originally scheduled by Abe.

Abe originally planned to go to Nagano on July 8 to assist in the election of a New Liberal Democratic Party candidate. Later, it was because of the scandal that the new candidate was exposed that he temporarily changed his itinerary to Nara. The Nara police did not know about this temporary change in Abe’s trip until the evening of July 7.

And the assassin Yamauchi lives in Nara.

So it is not so much the assassin who deliberately squatted Abe, but Abe and the assassin who came to a two-way rush on this sunny day.

Now that the weapons are ready and the target is delivered to the door, the next step is action. The whole action process of the assassin can only be described in four words: swaggering.

According to news reports, the man mixed the gun into the crowd “disguised as a camera”. security check? Does not exist.


When Abe delivered a speech to dozens of spectators around, the assassin stood beside the bodyguard with such a “camera”, raised his gun about 3 meters away from Abe, and made a standard shooting posture. None of the bodyguards and police around him noticed anything different.

After one shot, he missed, and everyone was watching. Then the second shot, Abe fell to the ground. At this time, the bodyguards suddenly pressed the start switch and began to work.

Abe was shot at about 10:30, and the ambulance arrived 15 minutes later. It was transferred by helicopter and sent to the Affiliated Hospital of Nara Prefecture Medical University at 12:50. I spent almost two and a half hours on the road.

This is about the whole process.

After careful review, we will find that there is another possible explanation for this case in addition to the conclusion of “lonely crazy wolf venting private anger”.

The following are my own conjectures out of thin air:

Another possibility



There are some extremists in Japanese society, such as this Yamauchi is one of them. For various reasons, these people have the idea of killing Abe. In fact, it is normal for the Japanese to have such an idea, because Japan is not easy under Abe.


However, there is a huge gap between ideas and practice. Most of them can only curse and dispel their hatred, and unconditionally “do something big”.

And Yamauchi is different. He gets the help of some forces, which makes his dream come true step by step.

The reason why these forces chose shanshang is that on the one hand, he has the basic skills of military technology and has a high success rate in action; On the other hand, he did have some mental problems, which made it easier to close the case afterwards.

Their help to Yamauchi is very secret, so that Yamauchi may not be able to realize that he has been helped. He may just feel that things are surprisingly smooth.

When you want to make materials, “coincidentally” found a channel; When he wanted to squat Abe, Abe “happened” to come to his city; When he swaggered into action, the entire security system “coincidentally” did not notice him; After the attack, there was “coincidentally” no medical equipment around; After the ambulance finally arrived, it “happened” to toss for a long time on the way to the hospital.

If all this is not a coincidence, then Abe’s surroundings have been infiltrated into a sieve.

As an important political figure, Shinzo Abe is bound to make enemies, but how much energy does it take to infiltrate all aspects around Abe, from scheduling to security arrangements to medical assistance, and create a shooting scene in the street?

Shinzo Abe himself was born in a prominent position, and his foreign minister, nobuke kishima, was known as the “demon of Showa”. He was in a high position and was one of the class a war criminals suspects of the Japanese invasion of China. However, before the end of 1944, kishisuke was keenly aware that Japan would be defeated, so he tore his face with Hideki Tojo and retired from the Jianghu, thereby escaping death.

Later, he was released in 1948 and made a comeback as prime minister after the war.


Because the level of his son-in-law Shintaro Abe (Shinzo Abe’s father) is limited, kishinsuke placed his hope on his apprentice Junichiro Koizumi and grandson Shinzo Abe, and vigorously trained them.

On the surface, Japan is a democratic system. In fact, it is a door politics. To put it bluntly, it is the world of nobility. In the past 100 years, there has been a total of one prime minister from a civilian background. At present, there are several major political factions in Japanese politics, such as the Abe family, the Hatoyama family, the ASO family, the Koizumi family, and the Fukuda family.

Against this background, in 2006, former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who has a close relationship with Shinzo Abe, made a high-profile announcement in the party that Shinzo Abe would succeed as president of the Liberal Democratic Party. Shinzo Abe was also successfully elected prime minister at the end of that year, but resigned only one year after the scandal.

Later, Shinzo Abe made a comeback in 2012 and was elected Prime Minister of Japan for the second time. This time, he was fully prepared and reached 2020 at one go. So this guy has been serving as Prime Minister for 3188 consecutive days, surpassing former Japanese Prime Minister Sato Rongzuo and becoming the longest serving Japanese Prime Minister in history.

In Japan, news of politicians being assassinated does come from time to time. For example, the mayor of Nagasaki was killed by gangs in 2007. However, as we just mentioned, Shinzo Abe is not an ordinary politician bureaucrat. He is the core leader of the gate valve.

It is different to kill the leaders of all Japanese doorkeepers and an ordinary official. It can’t be done by any small gangsters, let alone by shooting passers-by with homemade weapons in the street. And if there is really a mastermind behind the scenes, then the mastermind behind the scenes has unprecedented control over Japanese society.

However, Japan has no stronger power than Abe at all, and Shinzo Abe himself is the country’s largest boss.

Can this prove that there must be no one behind this? It’s not necessarily that there is no stronger force at home, which does not mean there is no force abroad.

A real chess player



Japan’s natural endowment and economic structure determine that it is a country that heavily depends on the international market. Coupled with historical reasons, the real chess player in Japanese politics has never been the gate valves that call the wind and rain at home, but the White House on the other side of the ocean. For Japanese politicians, climbing to the position of extreme minister in the country is actually just out of the novice village. A bunch of big guys like eagles and bears outside are ready to teach him to be a man at any time.

Japan is generally obedient to the United States. After all, the collar is in someone else’s hand, and disobedience is not enough. However, compradors are also divided into three, six, nine, and so on. Naturally, leaders of domestic gatekeepers with a deep foundation, such as Abe, will not be completely at ease as a dog. He and the United States will still be mixed with some elements of mutual utilization and game.

These complex relationships usually have no problems. As long as the cake is generally enough, it is normal for everyone to live while running in.

But the problem is: there is not enough cake now.

Today, the U.S. economy has entered a technical recession. In previous years, their main solution to the economic crisis was to go out and cut leeks. But the growth rate of leeks is also limited, and their own pits are getting bigger and bigger, so one day there will be a situation that leeks can’t fill the pits. What’s more, now some big countries have blocked his sickle from cutting.

There are so many countries in the world, and there are few really profitable countries in total. If the opponent can’t cut the leeks, he can only turn to his allies.

“Japan US alliance” is a taken for granted word in our view, but in the financial market, it is a completely different scene.

The country that has sold the most U.S. debt this year is Japan.

They reduced their holdings by hundreds of billions of dollars in the first four months alone.

Just now, the Japanese economy is highly dependent on the international market, so a volatile and depressed external environment is fatal to the Japanese economy

The US dollar is raising interest rates, which will attract some Japanese wealth to the United States, and the direct impact is the depreciation of the yen against the US dollar.

Japan is printing money itself, which will also lead to the depreciation of the yen.

The price rise of world bulk commodities means that the cost of manufacturing will rise, which will cause inflation and business difficulties.

The global economic downturn and the sluggish demand in the international consumer market have led to difficult sales of Japanese exports.

Japan has entered the most difficult period since the 21st century.

Now Japan’s selling of U.S. debt can allow the dollar to flow back to Japan, so as to provide some support for the collapsing yen exchange rate. As long as the yen does not collapse too miserably, the Bank of Japan will have the confidence to print money and buy back its own treasury bonds to stabilize the price of Japan’s national treasury bonds.

From Japan’s own national interests, their operation is understandable. But from the perspective of the United States, this is “I want to cut you, how dare you hide?”

During the Russian Ukrainian war, OPEC Limited oil production and raised prices to cut American leeks. As a result, their chairman returned to the west a few days ago. Japan’s selling of U.S. debt to stabilize its national debt is essentially against the United States, and its nature is similar to that of OPEC. Can we also refer to the fate of their gate leaders?


Now that the core figures of Japan have been sent away in such an almost unreasonable way, I’m afraid everyone will have a deeper understanding of the problem of “who is the real master of Japan”.


As for whether the speculation of this article is correct, we can draw a conclusion from Japan’s subsequent behavior. In the coming months, will Japan begin to fully obey the orders of the United States, and will it stop or weaken the continuous selling of U.S. debt.

So if the Japanese political arena is completely comprador, what impact will it have on the surrounding countries? Here is a very realistic example: Zelensky of Ukraine.

Once the comprador is in power, a country will make many unrealistic actions that are not in line with its own and regional interests. There is no solution that the order and tacit understanding established between neighbors based on the balance of their respective interests will be violently destroyed.

If Americans want to cut leeks, someone must bleed. As for whose blood is it in the end, we will compete with each other to make our fists harder. Anyway, ZELINSKY will not bleed. Hundreds of millions of dollars of overseas assets are waiting for him to spend his old age in peace.

However, objectively speaking, it is unlikely that Japan will take the initiative to lead the war like Ukraine. What they are more likely to do in the future is to let the United States cut itself more to the fullest. As long as compradors are in power in any country, this is the inevitable end.




I found it very strange that after the assassination of Abe, there was a voice on the Internet asking the Chinese to reflect. I think these people should first understand a basic fact: it was the Japanese who killed Shinzo Abe.

The Chinese people who eat hot pot and beer are just spectators. We have nothing to do and have no obligation to empathize with others. Moreover, when Abe visited the Yasukuni Shrine, revised textbooks, said that comfort women were “voluntary prostitution” and interfered in the Taiwan issue before his death, did he ever consider empathy with the Chinese?

The international community is a jungle world, and right-wing politicians such as Abe have always been enemies of regional stability. Perhaps his successor will go too far, but this does not mean that he is innocent. An enemy is dead. As ordinary people, it is our duty to be polite and happy.

In the final analysis, one’s life and death cannot change the general situation.

If Abe does not die, the economy of Japan and the United States can land safely? Can the tension in East Asia be eliminated? Will the western countries not target us? It’s impossible. Whether he dies or not and whether we are happy or not have no impact on the actual situation.

As a former opponent and current ally of the United States, Japan’s international strategy has always been to hold on to its thighs when the United States expands, and to find both ways when the United States contracts.

This strategy is most in line with Japan’s interests, and it has nothing to do with who is in power. Failure to do this can only show that the level of the ruler is low. And Abe’s level is qualified. He didn’t lose the bottom line of Japan’s own interests, but he didn’t make any breakthrough for Japan’s destiny. At most, he just changed with the times, that’s all.

Each country has its own small 99. Ultimately, it is only our own strength that can protect ourselves. It is useless to expect anyone, and it is even useless to flatter our opponents.

Moreover, the Chinese people are not indiscriminate. Just three days before Abe’s assassination, the famous Japanese cartoonist Takahashi and Hiroshi unfortunately died unexpectedly. For Takahashi, there is no abuse on the Internet. It is all good wishes and condolences.


We mourn a Japanese cartoonist and roast about a Japanese politician. Is this uncivilized? This is very civilized. “Friends come with good wine, enemies come with shotguns”, this is our simple moral standard.

Real Chinese people never double sign.


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