Author: brother Mao, this article is reproduced under the authorization of the official account brother Mao’s vision (id:maogeshijue).
During this period of time, Turkey asked the United Nations to change its country name from “turkey” to “t ü rkiye”, which quickly rose to the hot search list.
Many people wonder why the name Turkey has been called for hundreds of years. Why did it suddenly change?
On the surface, the reason for changing the country name is that the word “turkey” has a bad meaning. In addition to “turkey”, the word “turkey” generally refers to “turkey”, and also means “something seriously failed” or “stupid person”.
This is equivalent to that when Turks introduce themselves, others may hear “I’m a turkey” or “I’m a fool” in their ears. This is an insult. It’s strange if Turks don’t mind.
Turkish Foreign Minister chavusholu shows the renamed document
But in fact, the change of the country name is not just a word, but Erdogan is reshaping Turkey’s sense of national existence and national self-confidence. In the words of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the new name t ü rkiye can “represent the culture, civilization and values of the Turkish nation in the best way”.
So what does Turkey really want to do?
The three pioneering activities of Turks
On today’s Chinese Internet, the saying “husky in the dog, Turkey in the middle” has been circulating all the time. In most people’s impression, Turkey is not an important country, it is just a small country that can make troubles.
But what many people don’t know is that their ancestors were also rich.
In the western historical circles, there has always been a saying of “geopolitical sledgehammer”, which says that developed civilizations can often be bred at both ends of the Eurasian continent, while in the bitter and cold places of Central Asia, nomads, although with a low degree of civilization, are powerful. In the event of a natural disaster, they will periodically expand their power to the Eurasian continent in order to survive. If they “hammer” their original civilization system and turn over history, they will find that no matter the Hun cavalry invades Europe, Or the Mongolian expedition to the West.
Turkic, one of the “geographical hammers”, is just the one with bad luck. It took 1000 years from its birth to its hegemony.
In 626 ad, Emperor Taizong of the Tang Dynasty, lishimin, had just ascended the throne through the transformation of the Xuanwu Gate. When he was losing his foothold, he was suddenly surrounded by 200000 cavalry from Turks.
At that time, the Turks had just started a successful business and were at the zenith of the sun. Like the United States today, they were powerful and controlled millions of people. Moreover, they had been playing the offshore balance strategy. They intervened in the political situation in the Central Plains by supporting local separatist forces. Seeing that the Tang Dynasty had the potential to dominate the world, they immediately brought troops to start a war and plead guilty.
The Turkic army reached the Bank of the Weishui River and approached Chang’an city. Although it failed to capture Chang’an in the end, it still forced lishimin, the leader of a generation, to bow down and sign the Weishui alliance. It was clear that Turks and the Tang Dynasty were brotherly countries, and the Tang Dynasty paid tribute to Turks every year. This is also the black history that lishimin has been worried about. It also makes the Weishui alliance a black history of white Deng’s encirclement and Chenyuan’s alliance.
However, the Turks obviously did not know how terrible an opponent they had offended. After four years of forbearance, lishimin immediately sent Li Jing and 3000 cavalry troops to raid the tooth tent of Jieli Khan and destroy the invincible Eastern Turkic Khanate.
In 657 A.D., Su dingfang, a senior general of the Tang army, defeated the Western Turks in Jinya mountain (now Tashkent in Central Asia) and captured tens of thousands of people. The Western Turks were also badly weakened and had to flee all the way west to the Caspian Sea.
However, this wave of Turks did not have good luck. They directly ran into the booming Arab Empire. They could only hibernate and convert to Islam.
After 300 years of recuperation, taking advantage of the decline of the Arab Empire, the Turks finally realized their second venture, established a powerful Seljuk Empire, and occupied Persia, the Arabian Peninsula and now Turkey.
Unfortunately, the Seljuk Empire did not last for many years, but was beaten down by the “hammer of geography” Mongol empire that came again. The Turks had to hibernate again. It was not until the decline of the Mongol empire that one of the Turks started a third venture. In 1299, under the leadership of the leader Osman, the Ottoman Empire was established.
This is also the last Islamic country that can rival or even suppress Christian civilization.
The Ottoman Empire knew very well that there were too many countries coming from the grassland, whose rise and fall were sudden. If they want to survive, they must change from a grass-roots group to an “orthodox group”.
So in 1453, Muhammad II, the 21-year-old Ottoman Empire, set his sights on the Eastern Roman Empire. The Eastern Roman Empire has the legitimacy of the Roman Empire. As long as it is replaced, it can become the Lord of the world.
After the bombardment of urban cannons and the divine operation of warships flying over Golden Horn Bay, the Ottoman empire finally conquered Constantinople, the capital of Eastern Rome, and renamed Istanbul.
Since then, the Ottoman Empire has gained a great reputation. It began to invade the East and the west, laying a huge territory. In its heyday, the Ottoman Empire spanned three continents of Asia, Africa and Europe. Its territory extended from Algeria to the two rivers basin and the Persian Gulf, from Crimea and Hungary to Yemen, controlling two-thirds of the Mediterranean Sea and the entire Red Sea and the Black Sea. Its territory reached 5million square kilometers, There are few rivals within 1500 kilometers.
After the fall of Constantinople, the whole Europe was bombed. In their eyes, Constantinople is a combination of religion, spirit and Roman orthodoxy. When Constantinople is gone, the sky of Europe will collapse. What kind of terrible existence is the Ottoman Empire that destroyed Constantinople?
With such a behemoth around, the whole of Europe was in a state of fear. If they dared not fight, they began to try their best to discredit the Ottoman Empire and described it as a belligerent, violent, unstable and untrustworthy barbarian. So the word “turkey” has so many negative meanings in English.
More importantly, the special geographical location of the Ottoman Empire completely choked the throat of East-West trade, cut off the road for European businessmen to go to Asia, and forced Western Europe to develop towards the sea, looking for routes to the East in the vast sea, opening the prelude to the era of great navigation.
The past and present life of Pan Turkism
The arrival of the age of great navigation and the subsequent Renaissance made the East and the west begin to reverse their strength. Especially after the industrial revolution, the West began to expand outward rapidly.
At the same time, the Ottoman Empire, which has been in power for hundreds of years, has grown old and even gained the nickname of “sick man of West Asia”. Any big power can go up and kick its feet and cut off part of the land.
At this time, “pan Turkism” quietly sprouted, because the Ottoman Empire alone could not resist the great powers. Only by establishing a clear Turkic national identity could we unite various forces in central and West Asia against the invaders.
However, the development of “pan Turkism” did not go smoothly. First, it tried to take advantage of the Soviet civil war to establish a “Republic of Turkistan”. Then it caught up with the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in World War I and was divided up by Britain and France. It could only shrink to the newly established Turkey.
But at this time, Turkey was in power by Kemal, who was a realist. He understood that pan Turkism had no effect in front of the guns of the big powers. It was better to “break away from Asia and enter Europe”. Specifically, it was secularization.
Through the separation of church and state, Turkey was the first group in the Islamic world to “open their eyes to the world”, which also promoted the rapid revival of Turkish society. In World War II, Turkey also learned the lessons of World War I, resolutely refused to choose sides to stand by until the end of the war.
However, after the beginning of the cold war, the Soviet Union was like a hundred claws scratching its heart at the near but inaccessible outlet of the Black Sea. However, Turkey seized the Bosporus Strait, which made the Soviet Union very uncomfortable.
In order to hold the throat of the Soviet Union, NATO quickly absorbed Turkey into NATO and let Turkey act as a watchdog in the Black Sea region. However, Turkey felt very good about itself and began to dictate within NATO.
However, in the eyes of European countries, Turkey’s performance is undoubtedly a clown. Especially after the establishment of the European community, Turkey strongly demands to join the European community to enjoy benefits.
During this period, Turkey, which was obsessed with breaking away from Asia and entering Europe, did not pay attention to “pan Turkism”. However, the five Central Asian countries in the Soviet family were also very vigilant against pan Turkism. Therefore, from the pre World War II to the whole cold war period, pan Turkism was at a low tide.
However, Turkey gradually found that in the following decades, Turkey applied for membership of the European Community (EU) countless times, but failed.
This is also very normal. Since the Crusades in the middle ages, orthodox European nations and Islamic nations have been in a state of religious opposition. Turkey is only a doorman to the European Union. When did it take the doorman as its own?
In that case, why should Turkey have a hot face and a cold ass? Isn’t it good to be the boss?
This idea is consistent with Huntington’s description of the conflict of civilizations and the reconstruction of the world order. Huntington wrote that since Kemal, Turkey has been at a loss culturally, “abandoning Mecca and unable to enter Brussels”.
Rather than this, it is better to abandon unrealistic illusions about the west, “die vulgarized” and return to the Islamic world as the boss.
But being a boss also requires capital. Everyone is Muslim. Why should we listen to you? After thinking for a long time, it suddenly occurred to Turkey that “pan Turkism” was not tailored for itself? My ancestors have been the boss for hundreds of years. Now I’m rallying my arms again. The Turks scattered all over the country still don’t listen to the wind?
Therefore, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkey found a “rare opportunity in 300 years” to revisit the old dream of the Ottoman Empire, picked up “pan Turkism” and turned eastward.
In 1992, Turkey convened Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz Republic to hold the first summit of Turkic speaking countries in Ankara. In 1994, the second “summit of heads of state of Turkic speaking countries” was held in Istanbul. The central topic was “confirming the integration of Turkic speaking countries”.
To tell the truth, it’s funny to rely on Turkic language to achieve national identity, because Turks have no racial identity in the mixed race for thousands of years. Looking at the heads of Turkic countries, we can see that Turks are obviously white, while Kazakhstan is more like yellow.
What on earth are Turks? How do you know if it’s a Turk? There is no standard at all. Even if Turks are mixed with Greek, Armenian and Turkic people from the perspective of ancestry, there are only a few Turkic genes left.
However, Turkey has always recognized itself as a Turk, counting all the “glorious history” of the Turks and even the “glorious history” of all nomads on its own head, and identifying its ancestors everywhere to give it credit.
To say that many countries recognize a glorious ancestor for the sake of national honor and sense of belonging is not a disgrace, but the wonderful thing about Turkey is that it recognizes 16 ancestors at one go!
In 2015, Erdogan met with Abbas, and specially arranged 16 warriors to stand behind him, referring to 16 regimes that can be related to Turks in history, namely, the Huns, the West Huns, the Hun Empire, the white Huns, the Turk khanate, the awar Empire, the khanate, the Ghazni Kingdom, the Seljuk Empire, the khwarazm, the Golden Horde khanate, the Timur Empire, the Mughal Empire, and the Ottoman Empire.
The samurai in ancient costumes and the modern luxurious hall, I don’t know, I thought I was shooting the wonderful night in the museum.
But it doesn’t matter. As long as you are not embarrassed, it is others who are embarrassed, because Turkey now has the capital to recognize its father!
Although Turkey is only a subsidiary of Turks, Turkey has become one of the most powerful countries in Turks and even in the Islamic world! It’s like a distant house has come to recognize its ancestors and return to its ancestry. Can Changfang still refuse to recognize it?
But it is unprecedented to recognize 16 fathers at one go!
Look at the strength of Turkey. With a population of 90 million and a per capita GDP of 10000 US dollars, Turkey has the industrial base ranking first in the Islamic world and can produce its own tanks, artillery and UAVs. The TB2 UAV of Ukraine in the Russian Ukrainian war was designed and produced by Turkey.
Turkey can fight with money, and its ambition grows naturally. Therefore, the country name is changed from “turkey” in English to “t ü rkiye” in Turkish, which means “land of Turks”.
Obviously, this is what Turkey wants to do for Turks and even the Islamic world.
Turkey’s road of “Turkic revival” cannot fail to mention one person: Erdogan.
Erdogan’s life experience is quite inspiring. He was a football player at first, then became an accountant, and later was elected mayor of Istanbul by flattering female voters.
During his tenure as mayor, Erdogan made great efforts in infrastructure construction and tourism development, making Istanbul a world-famous tourist city. The song “I want to go to romantic Turkey with you” is largely thanks to Erdogan.
But do you think Erdogan is a secular who supports women’s rights? On the contrary, Erdogan is a veteran cleric
He supported women’s rights only for the sake of votes. During his tenure as mayor of Istanbul, he strictly abided by the doctrine of prohibition against alcohol, and even celebrated extreme religious poems in public, including the following sentence:
“The mosque is our military camp, the dome is our helmet, the minaret is our bayonet, and the believers are our soldiers.”
This kind of poetry is not forbidden to be read, but as the mayor of the secularized government, it is inappropriate for Erdogan to read it publicly. As a result, he was sentenced to 10 months’ imprisonment, but the imprisonment made him famous. Hundreds of fans came to visit him every day.
Erdogan, who was released from prison, established his own political party in 2001: the justice and development party. In 2003, he won the general election and became prime minister.
Although Erdogan studied accounting, he scoffed at western economic theories. Instead, he highly respected the financial laws in Islam. In Islam, there are three requirements for financial activities: first, to encourage lending, second, to pursue efficiency, and third, to prohibit all forms of interest. In many Islamic countries, interest is not allowed in financial activities.
However, interest rate spread itself is the key means for modern banks to make profits, so the Islamic interest ban is actually incompatible with the modern financial system. But Erdogan believes that only low or no interest rates can make it easier for the society to obtain funds and activate economic activities. In other words, it is water.
Therefore, Erdogan chose to form an alliance with the conservative Muslim rich businessmen, actively supported the rise of the Muslim bourgeoisie, and even directly dragged babajan, Turkey’s richest man, and others to serve as deputy prime ministers, building Turkey into a “financial center belonging to the Islamic world” to carry out Islamic financial services. As a result, funds from rich Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates began to flow in.
The emerging elite of the Muslim bourgeoisie in Turkey has accumulated huge financial assets, and has also begun to support the Zhengfa party and its export-oriented economic policy, which has also led to the rapid development of Turkey’s manufacturing industry and infrastructure. In 2004 and 2005, Turkey’s GDP grew by 9.6%.
In 2008, the world financial crisis broke out, and Turkey could also outshine others. The average GDP growth rate remained at about 7%, and even exceeded 10% in several quarters, ranking 17th in the world.
From 2003 to 2011, Turkey’s per capita GDP increased from US $2500 to US $10522, which is close to the minimum standard of developed countries. Turkish people enjoy the development dividend, which is also the reason why Turkish people support Erdogan.
In addition to relying on water to support the economy, Erdogan has also shown a tough style in domestic and foreign affairs
? It not only brutally suppressed the Kurdish rebellion, but also showed no mercy to foreign countries. In 2016, a coup took place in Turkey, which was defeated by Erdogan. After investigation, a Turkish businessman named Osman kawara was arrested. In fact, he was a member of the CIA, which attracted the attention of the United States, claiming that the detention of this man “shook the respect for the rule of law and democracy”.
The European Court of human rights also exerted pressure to release kawara. Erdogan personally took up the battle and angrily criticized the United States for “who do you think you are?” Who are you? Dare you mind my Turkish affairs?
Unexpectedly, this wave of tough operation has deeply touched the hearts of Muslims all over the world. To tell the truth, in the Islamic world, in recent decades, either civil war or being severely beaten, he has been in a very oppressive mood. At this time, Erdogan directly brightened the eyes of the Islamic people. It has been too long since such a fierce man appeared in the Islamic world! So whether in Turkey or other Islamic countries, Erdogan has many fanatical fans.
Relying on his great reputation, Erdogan has also moved towards dictatorship. In 2018, Erdogan directly amended the constitution, changing the country from a cabinet system to a presidential system, attributing the power that originally belonged to the president and the prime minister to the President alone. Even the prime minister was canceled. In fact, this is no different from his accession to the throne, so domestic netizens gave him a nickname: Egypt Sudan.
But in the eyes of Europeans, Erdogan’s actions are heresy. Are you still an elected country? Moreover, Turkey itself is an alien alien alien alien to Christian civilization. Therefore, in the negotiations on Turkey’s accession to the EU, Turkey has always been given the excuse of “waiting a few more years”.
Not only that, Europe also humiliated Turkey in every way. For example, once Turkey rushed to participate in NATO exercises and found that its imaginary enemy was itself? There are many similar things, which also made Erdogan fully understand that Europeans are not their own people!
Since there was no hope of entering Europe, Erdogan stopped pretending and began to show his religious faction. He issued a decree to require women to wear headscarves and promote the rule of law.
Of course, there are more Islamic countries engaging in religious power, and no one has become a powerful country by engaging in religion. Why can Turkey rise?
Quite simply, it is not how powerful Erdogan is, but that he has caught up with the big times.
Since 2011, social crises have broken out in various parts of the Middle East, and Syria has fallen into turmoil. At the same time, the rise of the Islamic state and the Kurds have come out to join the fun. The Mediterranean and red sea coasts are in a mess.
At the same time, the United States does not have the same reputation in the Middle East as it did in the Gulf War and the Iraq war. Its influence in the Middle East and Central Asia is declining. In particular, the nuclear agreement between Obama and Iran and the war launched by Saudi Arabia in Yemen have made the Middle East countries no longer trust the United States. In 2018, the killing of Saudi journalist kasuji at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul also strained the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia.
Now you know why the recording of kasuji’s murder was made public in Turkey? This move has been played 666 times.
After Biden took office, he directly ended his military support for the Saudi led Yemeni alliance and removed the Hussein armed group from the list of “terrorist organizations”. Subsequently, it began to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, and most of its troops stationed in Iraq also withdrew.
Obviously, for Biden, the menace of the Middle East is far less than that of China and Russia. Therefore, the United States will withdraw its military forces deployed in the Middle East and deploy them to the Asia Pacific region to achieve strategic contraction in the Middle East.
Regional chaos and the contraction of the United States. At this time, Erdogan smiled. In troubled times, a hero emerged. His big play began!
Since 2012, Erdogan has been like a righteous songgongming. No matter who asks him for help in the Islamic world or in the Turkic language family, Erdogan will seize the opportunity to intervene and take the opportunity to expand Turkey’s influence.
For example, when Qatar was blockaded by Saudi Arabia, Turkey directly airlifted supplies to Qatar without saying a word, and stationed troops in Qatar to deter Saudi Arabia from moving about.
For example, the Libyan government was defeated by the national army. It was also turkey who sent a large number of UAVs to support the government army, destroyed a large number of tanks, armored vehicles and armored air defense systems of the national army, and saved half of the country.
For example, Azerbaijan and Armenia broke out in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. As a result, with the support of Turkish drones, Armenia almost destroyed its country and had to cede most of Nagorno Karabakh to Azerbaijan.
For example, the conflict between Pakistan and India broke out in Kashmir, and turkey came out to recruit mercenaries into Pakistan to help fight with India.
Not to mention Syria, Turkey now occupies a large part of Syrian territory, and has begun to issue Turkish Identity Cards locally, obviously not wanting to spit it out.
After the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, on the one hand, Turkey provided Ukraine with UAVs, on the other hand, it acted as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, and secretly sent troops to Iraq to attack the Kurds while the world’s eyes were on Russia and Ukraine.
See? Despite its small size, Turkey has troops stationed in Syria, Qatar, Somalia, Cyprus, Libya and Azerbaijan, and its influence in the Middle East and West Asia is very strong.
On November 12, 2021, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan established the alliance of Turkic countries. Erdogan was the first leader of the alliance.
In this way, pan Turkism was basically materialized. At the same time, Turkey announced that it would form a “Turkic coalition army” with Azerbaijan.
So far, Erdogan’s ambition has been exposed. He has established an alliance of Turkic countries politically and a coalition army militarily. Once the goal is achieved, it will be the largest regional military and political bloc besides the P5 permanent members. It will reject Russia in the north, press Saudi Arabia in the south, rely on the refugee problem in the west, and infiltrate India and the Pacific in the East. Thus, he has become the overlord in West Asia and the Middle East.
When the time is ripe, it is not impossible for Erdogan to be crowned caliph of the Islamic world!
Can Erdogan’s wild hopes be realized?
Today’s Turkey is also facing a situation that has not changed in a century.
As one of the most potential players in this changing situation, Erdogan seems to have a lot of cards in his hands. For example, he is located at the throat of the world. The United States and Russia are competing to win over him. At the same time, the strength of the European Union has been greatly damaged and the Middle East strategic vacuum may be a rare opportunity for Turkey in a century.
However, Erdogan’s multi-party speculation seems to have taken a lot of advantages, but it also offended many countries and distrusted him. When everyone thinks Erdogan is a speculator, Turkey may have to guard against everything.
Therefore, it is very difficult for Erdogan to realize his wild hopes.
Politically, Erdogan was autocratic, but his governance was not stable.
Since the birth of Turkey, as a strong pillar of Kemal, the military has always had a transcendent position. After all, the military wants to be a strong country and a strong army, but it can’t be a strong army if it only recites scriptures. Therefore, the military is the guardian of the separation of politics and religion and secularization in Turkey, and fully supports secularization, modernization and democratization. Every time a politician wants to follow the old path of religious power, the military will come forward to oust the politician, just like a prison.
However, the military can not do a good job in the economy. Although it will be more stable politically, it will become worse economically and have to be democratized again. So the political situation in Turkey is like a periodic law. Coups will be carried out every ten years.
In 2016, 13 years after Erdogan took office, the coup happened again. The coup army attacked Erdogan’s Resort Hotel, but Erdogan withdrew early. Then Erdogan ventured into danger and flew directly to Istanbul. On the way, he was almost shot down by the Turkish army’s F16.
Then Erdogan began Trump’s attachment. He called on the people to take to the streets to oppose the coup through Twitter. As a result, millions of people came out at once and surrounded the coup army. Seeing that the general situation was gone, the military had to turn around and find some scapegoats to end the coup.
But Erdogan is a man whose eyes don’t rub the sand. The scapegoat will be killed, and those who acquiesce behind the scenes will be killed! Subsequently, Erdogan carried out five rounds of cleaning, more than 80000 people were arrested, more than 160000 civil servants and soldiers were dismissed or suspended, and a total of 240000 people were cleaned before and after! More than one million people were involved.
It seems that Erdogan has stabilized his rule through cleansing, but it has greatly intensified the contradiction between secularists and clerics. In particular, some senior military officials, judges, civil servants, media people and religious figures of the secularists are not convenient to go to prison. They simply deported 20000 people.
These 20000 people have become the main opposition force in Turkey overseas. They say abroad every day that Erdogan is cronyistic and family corrupt, and incite the overthrow of Erdogan’s rule.
In Turkey, because the democratization process has been interrupted, the entire bureaucratic system has become more and more corrupt and dissatisfied with the people. Even the military was ready to act again. As a result, Erdogan foiled an attempted coup in january2021 and arrested 218 serving soldiers, including six colonels, three lieutenant colonel and nine major.
Erdogan’s autocratic road is becoming increasingly unpopular. According to Erdogan’s constitutional amendment, Erdogan can be in power until 2029 at most, and it is increasingly unpopular. Once he is completely opposed and spurned, Erdogan will not be far from stepping down.
Second, economically, Erdogan’s economics is no longer brilliant.
Like Modi, Erdogan’s high support rate is based on three unique skills: one is to incite religious fanaticism, the other is to incite nationalist fanaticism, and the third is economic growth.
Erdogan has been standing on these three lines for more than ten years, but nearly
In recent years, Erdogan’s economic policies began to be less flexible.
According to Erdogan economics, Turkey’s development path is to exchange economic growth at the cost of high inflation, high foreign debt and high current account deficit. So since Erdogan took office, Turkey has been frantically draining water, and Turkey’s money supply has increased by 16% every year!
People who understand the principles of economics know that if there is too much money in the market, it will lead to inflation. At this time, it is necessary to raise interest rates to adjust. But this has touched the mold of Erdogan. Erdogan has always said that “interest rate is the mother of all evil.” in my opinion, interest rate is the cause and inflation is the result. Those who do not understand me will understand sooner or later. The rise in inflation is mainly due to the rise in interest rates. “.
So Erdogan has always asked banks not to raise interest rates to ensure money supply. Only when enterprises get enough money can they carry out various transactions and activate the market.
However, the Turkish central bank ignored this layman and raised interest rates continuously. Erdogan was so angry that he declared that “raising interest rates is treason!”, He fired three central bank governors who opposed him, appointed his son-in-law as Minister of finance, and personally appointed the governor, vice governor and chairman of the monetary Committee of the central bank.
His practice was feasible in the past, but he forgot that times have changed!
The COVID-19 and the Russian Ukrainian war have profoundly changed the world economic pattern. The world has fallen into great inflation. However, Erdogan still clings to the old idea of “releasing water to solve everything” in the past. He is too ambitious and talented to go his own way. If he does not act according to the economic laws, he will only be severely beaten by the economic laws in the end.
From last year to this year, the Turkish Lira has been plummeting. On May 31, the exchange rate of the Turkish Lira against the US dollar was 16.3 to 1. Compared with 7.33 to 1 in January 2021, the value of the currency was cut by half. Compared with 2019, it fell by 75%. The consumer price index (CPI) of Turkey in May rose by 73.5% over the same period last year, the highest since october1998.
Under the dual stimulus of inflation and currency devaluation, in order to avoid sudden poverty, Turkish people rushed to exchange lira for us dollars and euros, and hoarded gold for hedging. But Erdogan shouted, “they have dollars, we have people, and our God”, and called on everyone to be consistent with the outside world. If anyone hides dollars, euros or gold under his pillow, go to the bank and exchange it for Turkish Lira. This is a national battle!
But the people are not stupid. Even if they support Erdogan again, they will not take their money to water. Therefore, in the past six months, Erdogan’s support rate has dropped by as much as 9%.
You know, Turkey will hold a new round of general elections in 2023, and voters will elect a new president and 600 members of Turkey’s grand national assembly. When Erdogan can’t bring economic growth to the people, but falls into economic recession, even if the people’s religious beliefs are pious, they may no longer support him.
Third, diplomatically, all countries have no patience with Erdogan
Why can Turkey jump up and down without being beaten? It’s not how powerful Erdogan is or how skillful he is, but because of his special geographical location, he is a geomantic treasure land extending in all directions, with the Black Sea, the Mediterranean and the Balkans leading to Europe.
To the north, it can hold the throat of Russia to the ocean, which is what the United States and NATO need.
To the East, we can stop the Middle East refugees from rushing into Europe.
In fact, millions of Middle East refugees have gathered in Turkey, and Turkey has always used this as a bargaining chip to rip off Europe. If you don’t give me money, I will open the border and let these millions of refugees go! So Europe has to be patient with Erdogan.
In the west, as the most powerful country in the Islamic world, a group of countries in the Middle East and Central Asia are counting on Turkey to preside over the overall situation. Even Saudi Arabia, under the pressure of Iranian Shiites, wants to shake hands with Turkey, the challenger to the throne in the Islamic world.
It is reasonable to say that Erdogan is so arrogant that no matter NATO, the European Union or Russia, they all have the strength to destroy it, but what will happen after it is destroyed? Who controls Turkey?
Russian control? The United States and NATO do not.
NATO control? Russia doesn’t.
Saudi control? Europe is afraid of its religious exports to Europe, and will not do so.
Therefore, for all parties, they can only bear Erdogan by pinching their noses. Let Erdogan toss if he wants to. As long as he does not completely fall to one side, that is an acceptable result.
But now Erdogan is not only attacking in all directions, but also starting to engage in “pan Turkism”, which makes many countries intolerable.
You should know that although the five Central Asian countries became independent after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has always regarded them as its sphere of influence. In this region, there is a Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) militarily and a Eurasian Economic Union (eaeu) economically. Both of these organizations are led by Russia. Now Turkey wants to take four of the five Central Asian countries away to establish an alliance of Turkic countries. Can Russia be competent?
The same is true of the United States. It is not a big deal for Erdogan to engage in dictatorship, but he wanted to unite the Turkic countries, which touched the opposition of the United States.
For the United States, maintaining the world order it has maintained for decades is the most important. Why is China always targeted by the United States? It is because the United States has been paranoid that China’s rise threatens the existing order.
Now that China hasn’t finished, suddenly a Turkic alliance emerges? Turkey, what are you doing? Therefore, the US Turkey relations have been awkward over the years. The US backed the coup in 2016. Although the coup failed, the US demands to overthrow Erdogan will not change.
As far as Europe is concerned, it can no longer stand Erdogan’s insatiable extortion, and even the refugee problem is over. Even recently, Sweden and Finland want to join NATO, and Turkey wants to jump out against it. In fact, it just wants some benefits. But when will this kind of extortion come to an end?
Therefore, the EU is not used to Erdogan any more. French President macron, the “West emperor” of the EU, directly said: “France must take a tough attitude towards the Turkish government, which is not aimed at the Turkish people, and the Turkish government is no longer a partner in the Mediterranean region.”
Although Erdogan is now very fierce against the sky, the earth and the air, can’t the ambitious and talented Erdogan understand that the reason why he was not beaten today is that the big country doesn’t want to beat him for the time being? Do you really think that big country is afraid of him? When he completely offended the great powers, did Erdogan really think that he was chosen by heaven and that no one else could kill him? When he is really ousted, can he continue his great cause of “Turkic Caliph”?
Therefore, the game of great powers is ultimately a competition of comprehensive national strength. Obviously, Turkey does not have the strength of a first-class power in terms of politics, economy and geography.
It seems that Turkey’s “pan Turkism” dream can only be a dream in the end.
This article is reproduced under the authorization of official account brother Mao’s vision (id:maogeshijue).