Biden and Putin fought a decisive battle in the Middle East, but the winner was “thousands of miles away”!

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Author: north wind source: beifengxuelin (id:beifengxuelin)

From July 12 to 16, U.S. President Biden opened his first foreign visit to the Middle East since taking office.

Biden had a great plan for this foreign visit, but I haven’t written an analysis article.

It’s written today because Russian President Putin also started his trip to Iran today.

And Putin will hold bilateral meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is visiting Iran, in Iran, a third country.

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To analyze Biden’s plot of “a trip to the Middle East”, we must combine the tit for tat of Putin’s foreign visit.

After the United States detonated the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the competition between the United States and Russia has long been outside the Ukrainian battlefield.

Biden Putin’s simultaneous visit to the Middle East shows that the core battlefield of the game between the two countries has shifted to the Middle East.

But the final winner of this confrontation between the United States and Russia is “thousands of miles away”!

First, Biden’s foreign visit, first retreat, then pragmatic!

Biden’s visit to the Middle East is slightly different in the reports of domestic and American media.

According to our report, Biden visited Israel and Palestine successively, and the last stop was Saudi Arabia.

According to American media reports, Biden visited Israel, the West Bank and finally Saudi Arabia?

See the difference? The difference in the report is the “tendency” that the United States cannot get around.

In the conflict between Israel and Palestine, China stood on the side of Arab brothers and the historical latitude of presiding over international justice, and agreed with the “two state plan” adopted by the United Nations.

Therefore, we have treated Palestine almost as a state.

On the contrary, the United States has never recognized the “two state solution” because it is deeply bound by Jewish capital. It still calls Palestine the West Bank.

Even if the United States obviously favors Israel in the Palestinian Israeli conflict, the United States is still the most powerful influencer of the Palestinian Israeli problem, and even close to the “arbiter” position.

In the 1990s, Clinton once sent Netanyahu of Israel and Arafat of the Palestine Liberation Front to the United States for a “tripartite meeting”.

At that time, under the focus of the global media, Clinton stood proudly between the leaders of a pair of old enemies of Palestine and Israel, and his contemptuous smile was to tell the world, “I just like the way you see me unhappy and have to listen to me.”.

It has been decades since the Palestinian Israeli conflict. Although the United States has assumed the posture of “arbiter”, it has never played a constructive role in the Palestinian Israeli conflict.

During his visit to Israel and Palestine this time, Biden boldly “promised $300million in assistance to Palestine”. But after Biden set foot on the Saudi border, Palestine and Israel began to launch rockets and missiles fiercely.

The Palestinian foreign minister also defined the intensification of the Palestinian Israeli conflict as “the result of Biden’s foreign visit encouraging Israel”.

Today’s U.S. national strength can no longer support Biden. In the Palestinian Israeli conflict, he has the same confidence as Clinton in the 1990s.

Therefore, Biden’s visit in the name of “mediating the Palestinian Israeli conflict” was originally to “retreat”. But what’s more embarrassing is that if the “retreat” of foreign visits doesn’t work.

The result is that there is a “role”, which means that the military conflict between the two sides, which are originally gentle, has become more intense.

During Biden’s visit to Israel, the most pragmatic thing boasted by the American media was the formation of a new “four Nation Alliance”.

The United States, India, Australia and Japan have already formed an “Orcus” four Nation Alliance, and the final result is anti China Australia. They know what is “Australia crying to death”.

This time, the United States continued to attract India, added Israel and the United Arab Emirates in the Middle East, and formed an “i2u2”

Because the English names of India and Israel all start with “I”, and the United States and the United Arab Emirates all start with “U”, so there are such strange names.

However, the name of the United States is to “reflect unity and unity”, which means “what do I do, you follow”.

However, this English pronunciation is very similar to the classic “you jump, I jump” in Titanic.

This line is really touching in the unremitting love film. But if it is used to describe “political alliance”, it means that the ship of the United States is going to sink, and the allies are ready to “jump ship one after another”!

After the Biden administration took office, India obviously restrained its provocation against China, and the United Arab Emirates is China’s economic and trade partner in the Middle East.

Even for Israel, a staunch member of the United States, the bilateral relations between China and them, economic and trade exchanges, especially high-tech cooperation, have never been interrupted.

Therefore, it is “worldly wisdom” for India, the United Arab Emirates, Israel and Biden to talk together in the four countries, but Biden did not even dare to show his tendency to be an enemy of China.

So if such a “four country mechanism in the Middle East” wants to oppose China, it is also a “retreat” to deceive domestic voters.

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Although Biden’s Middle East trip ranked last in Saudi Arabia, Biden’s most pragmatic trip to the Middle East was actually to go to Saudi Arabia to “ask for oil production”.

Before Biden’s departure, the United States had just announced that inflation in June had reached a 40 year peak of 9.1%.

According to the estimates of American experts, the only way for the United States to solve the inflation crisis is for the Federal Reserve to sharply raise interest rates, reduce tariffs on China during the trump era trade war, and suppress international oil prices.

Since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates this year, it has been increasing its efforts, but as a result, the momentum of inflation has become stronger and stronger.

Facts have proved that the United States can only raise interest rates vigorously, which will not reduce inflation at all except for the recession.

The United States has been talking about “reducing the tariffs imposed by trump on China”, but the Anti China faction in the United States requires that “tariff reduction must force China to trade other interests”. Therefore, in the past half year, officials at all levels in the United States have taken the initiative to ask us to talk several times, but we have not let up to smooth out inflation for the United States.

Tariff reduction and sharp interest rate hike are both dead ends, leaving Biden with only one way to “reduce international oil prices”.

However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was triggered by the United States. When the United States ate the dividends of European asset transfer, it had to accept the surge in global oil prices caused by the war.

What can solve the high oil price is only the OPEC alliance of oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia, which will significantly increase production and fight down the international oil price.

Only when oil prices fall can inflation in the United States fall.

But at this stage of high oil prices, Saudi Arabia and other Middle East oil producing countries are also gainers, and high oil prices make a lot of money.

Why should Saudi Arabia give up its economic interests to increase production and destroy national income? And completely offend Russia to death?

What benefits can the United States give Saudi Arabia to give up such important economic interests?

Only political interests and national security interests can be higher than economic interests.

Saudi Arabia’s political appeal is that the United States recognizes the status of crown prince Salman and endorses Saudi Arabia’s “father son inheritance, inheritance without replacement”.

Saudi Arabia’s national security demands, on the one hand, are to import advanced offensive weapons from the United States, on the other hand, are to require the United States to be tough with Iran and not allow the shackles of the “Iran nuclear agreement” to be lifted.

Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia is low enough to beg. But the gesture came out, but the “interests” that the United States can trade could not be brought out.

The biggest contradiction between the Biden government and Saudi Arabia is the “murder of kasuji”, a journalist four years ago.

At that time, Biden was just a senator. He called crown prince Salman the murderer and Saudi Arabia the international pariah.

Now when Biden goes to Saudi Arabia to ask for oil, he must take back the insult of the international pariah and admit the hereditary failure of crown prince Salman.

However, within the Democratic Party of the United States, the characterization of Salman and kasuji cases has been related to the cohesion of party values, and Biden can’t “let water” casually.

Since Saudi Arabia’s hereditary political interests cannot be satisfied, what about the “national security interests”?

The Biden administration also banned the export of advanced offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia because of the “kasuji murder case”.

During Biden’s visit, the two sides still did not have a “military purchase contract for advanced weapons”.

In addition, unlocking the “Iran nuclear agreement” is also a direction that the Biden Administration tried to promote after taking office. Now the United States and European allies are seeking to promote the “return to Iran nuclear agreement”, so Biden cannot give Saudi Arabia the benefit of blocking Iran.

Because Biden could not offer “practical interests”, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia only gave a smooth answer of “there is room for increasing production, but it can’t be done for the time being”.

This answer at least proves that Biden cannot make Saudi Arabia increase oil production at this stage. As for next month or the future, it also depends on whether the United States can make substantive concessions to Saudi Arabia on one political interest and two Saudi national security interests!

Second, Putin’s visit to Iran and Erdogan have their own gains!

Biden’s foreign visit to Saudi Arabia “for oil” has left the country.

What about Putin’s trip to Iran?

Biden went to Saudi Arabia to suppress oil prices, and Putin went to Iran, of course, to stabilize oil prices.

Putin will give Iran some security commitments, so that Iran is not in a hurry to release more crude oil through the Iran nuclear agreement and impact international oil prices.

The most suspense is that Erdogan, the master of micromanipulation in the game of great powers, actually thought of the idea of meeting Putin in a third country. It is worth further observation on what substantial moves can be made by Russia, Iran and Turkey this time.

Unlike Biden’s obvious failure, Putin’s visit has at least succeeded in two major events!

The first is the US hype that “Russia imports a large number of drones from Iran”.

According to the understanding and announcement of all parties, Russian large-scale transport aircraft have landed at Iran’s airport, so it is possible for three large-scale military transport aircraft to transport 300 drones sold by Iran.

Russia has obvious advantages in conventional operations on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield. However, after Ukraine received military assistance from western countries, especially advanced UAVs, in a more modern small-scale battle, Ukraine’s UAV tactics turned out to be to suppress the Russian army.

Therefore, this time Russia purchases a large number of UAVs from Iran, which can make up for the disadvantage of electronic warfare in the Ukrainian battlefield.

Another great achievement is the official announcement of Russia that before President Putin’s visit, the financial and diplomatic officials of Russia and Iran have been negotiating “de dollarization of bilateral trade” for more than a year. The negotiation has been completed. Russia has submitted an official text to Iran. If the bilateral trade is de dollarized, it is almost signed and effective.

Therefore, Biden went to Saudi Arabia to “reduce oil prices” and Putin went to Iran to stabilize oil prices. The final battle cannot be seen for the moment.

Although after Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the international oil price has stood at a high of $106 from more than $90, which is the same as the counter effect of the “Palestinian Israeli conflict” turning into fierce war. Biden went to Saudi Arabia to reduce oil prices, resulting in soaring oil prices.

However, after Putin’s visit to the international oil price, Saudi Arabia will lead OPEC to formally negotiate whether to increase production next month. At that time, the change of oil price is the embodiment of the battle between the two.

But at least, Putin has gone to two cities first in the military purchase of drones and the de dollarization of trade.

Third, where are the winners and losers of Russia’s anti American hegemony?

The trade between Russia and Iran is only more than $4 billion a year.

Moreover, Iran has been sanctioned by the United States for a long time, so it is difficult to get dollars and spend them.

After Russia was sanctioned by the United States because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine this year, the dollar blockade faced by Russia is even crueler than Iran.

Therefore, experts in many countries around the world are not very vigilant about the de dollarization of “small trading volume” between the two countries.

However, because both Russia and Iran were sanctioned by the United States, the dollar could not be spent, but at the same time, their currencies were also highly blocked and fluctuated greatly.

Large fluctuations are not conducive to private settlement in bilateral trade. The currency is highly blocked, which means that the currencies of both sides cannot buy anything else from the international market except for trading with each other.

Therefore, the best “de dollar” plan for Iran and Russia should be to find a non dollar currency with more stable currency value and can buy all just needed industrial products.

Both parties directly use this “third-party currency” for settlement, or both parties carry out local currency settlement with this third currency country. Finally, the currencies of both countries in the trade between Russia and Iran can be replaced with large amounts of “third country currency”. Through the purchase of “third country” rigid industrial products, the diversification of currency application scenarios and the realization of financial cycle can be realized.

As for which “third country currency” is suitable, not long ago, India’s third brother purchased ore from Russia, but settled it in RMB, which is the most vivid example?

Therefore, Russia and Iran have achieved “complete de dollarization of bilateral trade”, which is only a small gap of $4billion in volume, but this is the clarion call for the formation of an “anti dollar alliance”.

If the current inflation crisis in the United States is a recession signal of this economic cycle, its impact on the United States will be only a few years.

Then more and more countries are moving towards trade settlement in their own currencies, diversification of storage currencies, and de dollarization, which shakes the foundation of the “dollar hegemony” of the United States.

Saudi Arabia, which built the hegemony of “petrodollar” with the United States at the beginning, is now not a bird of the United States, which also seems to be a harbinger of the decline of petrodollar.

Therefore, Putin and Biden will bear the brunt of this decisive battle in the Middle East, whether the game of international oil prices can support Russia to fight a “protracted war”.

However, the real winner or loser of Russia’s great cause of anti American hegemony is whether there can be a de dollar alliance based on the “mysterious power currency” in the world.

Therefore, the decisive battle between Biden and Putin is won by the mysterious oriental power thousands of miles away.

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