This article is reproduced by Niu Danqin (id:bullpiano) with authorization. Author: Niu Danqin
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There is no doubt that Biden went to the Middle East this time, but he exposed a secret of the United States.
It’s hard to understand, but what’s the key secret?
The United States is weak in the Middle East!
Although Biden has repeatedly vowed on many occasions that the United States will not leave the Middle East and will not let China, Russia and Iran fill the vacuum. But the more that is said, the more worried Americans are, and the world knows it.
Seeing a BBC analysis article, he said mercilessly:
For US President Biden, he may prefer not to visit the Middle East this week or any week. He has too much work to deal with at hand. Biden’s Democratic colleagues in the U.S. Congress seem to be facing the gloomy election results after the mid-term elections in November this year… What’s more troubling is that President Biden’s past visits to the Middle East have shown the limitations of U.S. national strength. Politically, Biden’s trip may once again remind people that the influence of the United States in the Middle East continues to shrink.
This is not what I said, but what the BBC said.
Alas, the world has really changed. The BBC is not optimistic about Biden now, and is throwing cold water on him.
But is it reasonable?
I think this actually just tells the truth of the Middle East, which can be said from several dimensions.
First, the United States’ sense of powerlessness towards Israel.
Although Biden was warmly welcomed by Israel at the airport. After all, when big brother comes, the first stop is Israel.
But Biden knew in his heart that this politeness was hard to hide the humiliation he had suffered.
One humiliation is the past. When he was vice president of Obama, Biden also visited Jerusalem. He painstakingly called on Israel to freeze the construction of Jewish settlements on Palestinian land.
What happened?
In the words of the BBC, he was humiliated by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at that time. Even if these settlements were completely in violation of international law, Israel said to build them, and Biden’s words were ignored.
Another kind of humiliation is now. Anyway, Biden left with his front feet, and Israel and Palestine fought again with his back feet. Israel claimed that it was attacked by Hamas rockets, and then sent fighter planes to launch air strikes on Hamas targets.
The scene was ablaze with flames, just hours before Biden flew away.
Hamas naturally condemned Biden’s visit. Fazi Barhoum, the spokesman of the organization, said that the Israeli bombing “reflects the support and encouragement of the United States”.
I once worked in Jerusalem. Peace between Palestine and Israel is the most difficult problem in the Middle East. When the president of the United States comes, the contradiction intensifies. Biden’s frustration can also be imagined.
Second, the frustration of the United States towards the Arab world.
Very simply, now the United States is trying its best to strangle Russia, but in the Middle East, no middle east country has completely followed the United States.
On the contrary, Syria has completely turned to Russia, becoming the second country after Russia to recognize the independence of the two regions of Donbas.
Why is that?
On the one hand, Russia is closer to the Middle East, and Middle East countries must weigh Russia’s weight; But on the other hand, and more importantly, the Middle East countries have seen the selfishness of the United States.
For example, Afghanistan, the United States fought in Afghanistan for 20 years, but abandoned its Afghan allies regardless last year. Why can’t the United States abandon the Middle East countries one day?
Arab countries in particular have deep memories. In 2011, Egypt was not spared from the chaos in the Middle East. Although Hosni Mubarak, then Egyptian President, was a staunch ally of the United States, the United States said it would abandon it.
In the words of the BBC article, “after that, Saudi Arabia no longer trusted Washington. They concluded that if Americans could do this to a loyal friend, they could do this to anyone.”
Third, Biden also has a sense of humiliation for Saudi Arabia.
In the final analysis, why did Biden insist on going to the Middle East? In the final analysis, he still needs oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia.
Very simple, the oil price is too high.
After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international oil prices soared, and now more than $100 a barrel. Even though the United States has rarely imported oil from the Middle East, the impact is disastrous. For every cent of gasoline price rise, the Democratic Party may lose a lot of votes in the mid-term elections.
For the sake of votes, even humiliation, Biden also gave up.
Why is there humiliation?
Because Biden used to swear at Saudi Arabia. In particular, the CIA determined that Saudi Crown Prince Salman Jr. was the mastermind of the kashuji case. Biden claimed at that time that this made Saudi Arabia an international outcast and that he would recalibrate the relationship between the two countries after he came to power.
Relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia are deteriorating. It is said that after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Biden tried to call Salman Jr., but the other party simply refused to answer the phone.
But now, Biden turned 180 degrees and happily went to Saudi Arabia to have a friendly meeting with Salman Jr., smiling and punching each other. Although Biden didn’t flash his waist, Americans were stunned by this super arc.
For the sake of interests, we can ignore the old face like this, which is really convinced by Biden.
In an even more interesting detail, in order to avoid domestic criticism, Biden did raise the case of kasuji during the meeting with Salman Jr., who was also impolite. He told Biden that the sexual and physical abuse of prisoners by U.S. military personnel in Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq, as well as the killing of Palestinian American female journalists by Israel in May this year, had a very bad impact on the United States.
It really doesn’t give Americans face. The United States used to scold people, but now the United States has also been scolded.
What is the final result?
Seeing is seeing, and seeing may be the greatest achievement. If Saudi Arabia really wants to increase oil production and reduce Russia’s share, Saudi Arabia may not succeed.
Fourth, the fear of showdown with Iran.
Although the United States waved a big stick to Iran, it did not dare to have a complete showdown with Iran.
Very simple, this world, horizontal afraid of Leng, Leng afraid of death.
In fact, for Biden, it is also a good thing to make a breakthrough in the nuclear negotiations with Iran and let Iran come back and produce more oil as soon as possible.
But the key is that Israel did not do it, Saudi Arabia also opposed it, and trump was even more difficult. Biden is also difficult.
As a result, there is a vicious circle. The more sanctions the United States imposes, the closer Iran is to Russia, and the faster it speeds up the refining and enrichment of uranium, which in turn stimulates Israel to continue to carry out secret operations against Iran, and the contradiction between Iran and Israel is becoming more and more intense.
If it continues, it may really be a hot war. At that time, the United States must be involved again.
Unable to appease his little brother and win over the Middle East version of NATO, Biden is really a headache.
Fifth, the anxiety of the United States about China’s influence.
Biden was really anxious. Before leaving, he published a signed article in the Washington Post saying, “we must fight back against Russia’s aggression and put us in the best position to surpass China… To do these things, we must have direct contact with countries that can affect these results.”
First deal with Russia, but don’t forget to talk about China.
In Saudi Arabia, he was even more straightforward. Biden vowed: “we will not go away and leave a vacuum filled by China, Russia or Iran. We will seek to play an active and principled American leadership at this moment. The United States will continue to be a partner actively involved in the Middle East.”
Please note that China is also ahead of Russia and Iran.
As I said before, the fear of the United States is that it is concentrating on returning to the Asia Pacific and concentrating on dealing with China; But in the Middle East, China’s influence is expanding. Its relations with several important countries in the Middle East are now very good, unprecedented, such as:
China is Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner, and China’s purchase of Saudi oil is said to be three times that of the United States;
The relationship between China and Iran is also very good. It can be predicted that once the nuclear issue is resolved, China will definitely be the number one buyer of Iranian oil;
Even Israel, the iron brother of the United States, has a very good relationship with China. If it weren’t for the pressure of the United States, the cooperation between China and Israel would be more in-depth
Why is that?
This is the art of Chinese diplomacy. You are opponents and enemies, but it does not prevent us from being friends. Harmony makes money, and we do business together.
In such a China, can Biden not be in a hurry?
Finally, what do you think?
It’s still shallow.
First, Biden left the Middle East disappointed.
It’s really frustrating. In the past, the United States shouted loudly, and the countries in the Middle East listened one after another. But now, Biden is going to the Middle East, but the result is very bad, and Gaza is fighting. It’s really embarrassing. On air force one, Biden probably looked annoyed. He must face the fact that the national strength of the United States has declined significantly in the Middle East. People are scattered, and it is really difficult to lead the team.
Second, Putin went on to play a big game.
It’s very simple. Biden’s front feet go, and Putin’s back feet come. Starting from the 19th, he will visit Iran and hold a trilateral summit with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Lech. Don’t tell me it’s a coincidence. How can there be so many coincidences in international diplomacy? You have your Zhang Liangji, I have my ladder over the wall, and Putin is also playing a big game.
Third, China should be more careful and confident.
Now, Biden never forgets China and never forgets to speak ill of China. Let’s not rush, don’t jump three feet high. When China develops, it must face such a reality. But what this exposes more is the lack of confidence of the United States. In this world, the greatest success is to develop ourselves and improve people’s livelihood without tossing and turning. Let the United States go to trouble, Biden, don’t blink.