Source: a bad potato (id:iamhtd)
Part I: Why did things get out of control?
Part II: Biden lost, who won?
Part III: Biden starts the muddling mode
Part III: Putin completes the energy blockade on Europe, and Europe has the last two options
Part V: the tearing of the US global chess game
Part I: Why did things get out of control?
In 2014, Russia “recovered” Crimea, and the US western group subsequently imposed comprehensive sanctions and containment on Russia.
The effect can be said to be immediate. Russia’s GDP fell from $2.29 trillion in 2013 to $1.36 trillion in 2015. By 2016, it was only $1.28 trillion, almost halving.
During this period of time, Russia was severely punished. Putin’s support rate reached a high point in the first half of the recovery of Crimea, and then fell sharply.
That is, during that time, Russia and China signed a super energy bill
The most fundamental reason is the sharp fall in international energy prices. Before the Crimea incident, the oil price was $115 / barrel. By the end of 2014, the oil price had become $48 / barrel.
The reason for the sharp fall in oil prices in 2014 was the explosion of shale oil production capacity of U.S. energy companies, which not only changed from an oil importer to an exporter, but even surpassed Saudi Arabia at some time to become the world’s largest exporter.
In 2014, OPEC not only did not reduce production, but also produced oil like the U.S. energy business competition, and soon supply exceeded demand.
As a “national gas station”, Russia soon could not bear it, and the United States also made Russia “pay the price” for its own behavior.
But eight years later, under the general director of the United States, the Russian Ukrainian war broke out, and the United States made thousands of sanctions in an attempt to destroy the Russian economy at one stroke, but the direction of things changed completely.
Part II: Biden lost, who won?
No matter what Biden does, energy prices will not come down.
Up to today, Biden, the chief planner behind the scenes, has lost.
American energy traders won.
The traditional energy business in the United States is the largest financier of the Republican Party, Trump’s staunch vote holder, and it can also be said that it is a hostile force within Biden.
In those years, trump withdrew from the international climate agreement for one reason: he did not want to engage in environmental protection, because the so-called “clean energy” would affect the business of traditional energy traders. He always emphasized that oil is the life of the United States.
The first thing Biden did when he came to power was to completely block energy companies and restrict the production of American oil, so as to crack down on the Republicans. He wanted to invest heavily in new energy, formulated the “clean energy revolution plan”, rejoined the climate organization, and tried to become the leader of the international climate agreement.
But we never expected that Biden would kill the traditional energy business in the United States, but in his tenure, he made a few years of money a year and couldn’t close his mouth.
All this is because the Russian Ukrainian war planned by Biden and his team behind the scenes has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices.
What’s more outrageous is that American energy traders sell oil and gas to Europe and other regions, because the price is higher, that is, they don’t sell it to the United States, and they don’t increase production.
With the soaring energy prices in the United States and the trade war with China during the trump era, the CPI is about to jump to more than 10%, and Biden’s support rate has fallen to the lowest of all previous U.S. presidents!
Biden has repeatedly called on American energy companies to increase production and reduce energy prices in order to “protect people’s livelihood”. Unfortunately, no one paid any attention to him.
If you want me to increase production, why?
OPEC won.
The oil countries led by Saudi Arabia are Trump’s closest allies and also his financiers.
When the crown prince of Saudi Arabia was suspected of murdering kasuji, a friend of western public opinion, Saudi Arabia subsequently sent trump hundreds of billions of arms orders. Trump was very good and patted his chest to guarantee Saudi Arabia:
Your business is my business. Don’t worry, don’t you die, reporter? Nothing.
The enemy’s friends are the enemy, so they are also Biden’s enemies. Biden called Saudi Arabia an international pariah when he came to power. Calling for the suspension of the Yemeni action directly posed a threat to Saudi Arabia. He also repeatedly mentioned that he would investigate the Saudi Crown Prince’s suspected killing of kasuji. This series of actions were all aimed at attacking Saudi Arabia.
But we still never expected that Saudi Arabia made enough money during Biden’s tenure, because Biden planned the Russian Ukrainian war
In order to deal with inflation and give an account to the American people, Biden had to go to Saudi Arabia and was really disappointed. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia received the visiting Iraqi Prime Minister in the capital and found a governor to Jeddah to pick up Biden. In the end, he did not talk about any results.
Russia also won.
Trump often said that Putin was his good friend. The two presidents often met and enjoyed each other.
Biden said when running for president that Russia is the biggest enemy of the United States.
He couldn’t wait to kill Russia before he came to power.
Thus, encouraged by the United States, the war between Russia and Ukraine finally broke out.
Today, Ukraine has lost all its talents. Russia is certain to win half of Ukraine and will soon absorb Ukraine’s land and population.
Not only that, in Iran alone, Russia needs to invest $40billion. You know, Biden has such a big battle, he only needs to invest $180million in ASEAN
Putin directly did more than 200 times his job.
Where did Russia get so much money?
Because after the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, Russia’s 100 day energy sales revenue topped the annual revenue of 2021, equivalent to 3.6 days of money a day now.
Trump seems to be winning, and is trying to participate in the election. He said:
Biden is to blame for all this. If I were here, the war between Russia and Ukraine would never start.
Today, energy traders in the United States, oil countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia should all say to Biden:
Listen to me, thank you, because of you
Today, Biden has been unable to figure out why he planned the war between Russia and Ukraine and why he imposed sanctions on Russia.
Looking at his support rate of less than 36%, what he should want to say is:
Who am I, where am I from, and what am I going to do?
Part III: Biden starts the muddling mode
In addition to the impact of the epidemic and the failure to listen to Biden in all aspects, there is another important reason for the high oil price in 2022 compared with 2014.
The withdrawal of Crimea in 2014 was a military operation that ended on the same day.
2022 has become a protracted war. Once the war breaks out, it is difficult to think about energy prices.
In fact, this is completely beyond Biden’s expectation. In the original plan, Ukraine is the “abandoned son” of the United States. Putin can take Ukraine on the same day. The United States will appease militarily and impose economic sanctions. I didn’t expect that the oil and salt in the Asian speed camp didn’t enter, leading to the end of the war today.
Biden must be furious to see that zelianski is still jumping up and down for military assistance every day. What he wants to say is:
What else? Why don’t you kneel quickly?
Hit your sister, I’m going to class!
In order to make Saudi Arabia increase oil, Biden went to Saudi Arabia, obviously without any results.
Saudi Arabia says you can’t even handle the energy business in the United States. Why should we increase production?
Before going to Saudi Arabia, Biden first went to Israel and issued a statement to Israel, saying that the United States will use all elements of its national strength to ensure that Iran cannot acquire nuclear weapons, and promised to cooperate with other partners to deal with Iran’s aggression and destabilizing activities.
Biden said he would ensure Israel’s security and let Israel cooperate with his work.
The Israeli Prime Minister saw at a glance that what Biden said was all deceiving nonsense, without any substantive significance. There was neither a specific action plan nor a time node, so Lapid asked Biden to set a specific deadline and follow-up action plan for Iran’s return to the negotiation of the Iran nuclear agreement.
As a result, Biden pretended to be dumbfounded and said that we would study it again
This scene is the same as last year’s G7. The United States formulated a global infrastructure plan and vowed to compete with China. After talking, everyone forgot it, as if they hadn’t said it
When he arrived in Saudi Arabia, Biden continued to pretend to be confused. The Saudi reporter asked Biden, do you still want to trace the kasuji incident?
What Biden said, what you said, I can’t hear clearly Saudi Arabia is our traditional ally.
The reporter said that you still think Saudi Arabia is an international pariah?
Biden said: we should uphold the values of democracy and freedom. Russia is an evil country.
Anyway, the answer is irrelevant.
Mohammed warned Biden that every country has its own values, and imposing its own values on other countries will only backfire. The failure of the United States to implement American values in Iraq and Afghanistan is proof that Saudi Arabia does not welcome American values diplomacy.
What did Biden say, what did you say, uh We will firmly support Ukraine, but let’s talk about increasing oil production.
Saudi Arabia finally told Biden that it had the ability to increase production.
Biden was very happy to hear it. Well, well
As for when to increase production, Saudi Arabia revealed after the meeting that it was in 2026.
Biden calculated that it was possible for him to live until 2026, but by 2024, the president of the United States must not be him.
But Biden won’t say these things. Everyone is an expert who pretends to be confused. Why do you say it?
After the meeting, the United States and Saudi Arabia achieved remarkable results and signed up to 18 cooperation achievements, involving energy, communications, space and health care, including cooperation with Boeing, Raytheon and Medtronic, digital diagnostics and iqvia, a healthcare company.
Anyway, there are many. Although there is no specific plan and amount, many are complete There are also new cooperation in clean energy, nuclear energy and uranium.
But I didn’t say a word about oil.
Biden clearly knows that his trip to the Middle East is basically uncertain, and he will be punished by Saudi Arabia. Without any results, why should he go?
Have you ever felt like this?
You have no interest in your work, knowing that doing this work will neither grow nor achieve any results, nor be good for your future, nor help your career.
But you can’t find a better job in the short term. Although it’s a pity to abandon your current job, it’s tasteless to eat, but at least you live less money and are closer to home, then you won’t resign.
Therefore, we must pretend to be very attentive to muddle through the day, clock in and out on time every day, and be sure to pretend to be very busy. The monthly work report PPT is very exquisite, and we are looking for our own achievements and highlights
Biden is in such a state now. During the G7 meeting, all Member States pretended to be very enthusiastic and formulated three goals.
Further crack down on the Russian economy;
Dealing with soaring energy and food prices;
Establish broad partnerships in the field of infrastructure.
Then everyone went to discuss with enthusiasm
Clearly know that there is no result, but we still have to pretend to work hard.
Biden is still very professional. No matter what, we should make everyone feel that he is doing his best.
The mid-term election is three months away. Now it is very clear that the Democratic Party has lost the house of Representatives, which is almost a clear thing. The possibility of losing the Senate is more than 60%.
Once the mid-term election fails, Biden will completely become a decoration. In the next two years, all decisions will not be made.
Of course, he will still pretend to be very busy.
Just like going to Saudi Arabia, he knew there was no result, but he still wanted to go. After all, he “worked hard”.
Part III: Putin completes the energy blockade against Europe
Shortly after Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Putin paid a tit for tat visit to Iran and held a tripartite meeting with Erdogan.
Together with Biden, Putin will finish the last leg of the European harvest.
Russia ranks first in the world in natural gas reserves, accounting for 27%;
Iran has the second largest natural gas reserves in the world, accounting for 18%;
Iran has been fully sanctioned and blocked by the United States and Europe. Russia has invested $40billion to assist Iran in completing the development of natural gas. After the completion of the project, Iran’s natural gas production capacity will soar, but Russia is bound to become one of its largest shareholders.
Russia and Iran almost control the trend of global natural gas and almost control half of the global production capacity.
Qatar has the third largest natural gas reserves in the world, accounting for 12%;
Europe wants Qatar to import oil. Qatar has made it clear that the current production capacity is simply unable to maintain Europe’s demand. In the short term, because technology and shipping cannot meet the requirements, it can meet 5% at most;
Turkmenistan has the fourth largest natural gas reserves in the world, accounting for 10%;
However, Turkmenistan is a landlocked country in Central Asia, and natural gas wants to be sold to Europe. There is no oil pipeline or wharf, and Turkmenistan has always been the most important natural gas energy supplier to Russia. Russia buys natural gas from Turkmenistan at a very low price, and then sells it to European countries at a high price
Kazakhstan has the eighth largest natural gas reserves in the world, accounting for about 5%;
Kazakhstan is very positive, saying that they don’t give you natural gas and I’ll sell it for you.
But Kazakhstan forgot that their Caspian oil pipeline had to pass through Russia. Russia was very straightforward, and then shut down Kazakhstan’s pipeline. The reason was very clear, because technical problems needed maintenance
Of course, there are many countries producing natural gas.
Why should Turkey be invited to this meeting?
Because Russia and Turkey have completed the siege of Europe, all other countries do not pass through these two countries if they want to transport natural gas to Europe, unless they repair the oil pipeline from the sky.
Of course, it can be transported from Syria, but Syria is Russia’s traditional ally. Not only that, it was also bombed half dead by Europe and the United States
Of course, it can also be transported from Africa, but Africa does not even have the ability to set up oil pipelines unless Europe makes a 10-year investment plan.
In other words, the Russia Turkey Iraq meeting almost cut off the possibility of Europe obtaining all other energy.
However, there is no way out, and Europe can also buy natural gas from the United States.
The United States has the fifth largest natural gas reserves in the world. It has the ability to help Europe alleviate the situation, but it is impossible to repair oil pipelines across the Atlantic Ocean.
Then we need to use a limited number of LNG ships in the world for long-distance transportation, and transport natural gas from the United States all the way. With a series of processes, the price is at least 40% higher than that of Russia.
Energy is the foundation of all industries. Natural gas is 40% expensive all at once. The consequences are very serious. The price of electricity and other prices will rise, and the price of all industrial products will double.
Therefore, by may, Germany had its first deficit in 30 years, and there is still no relief.
In other European countries, inflation has long made the princess want to die. The little princess has been knocked down and become a Russian spy. She is ready to burn coal
So now in Europe, there are two options.
The first option is to continue to import energy from Russia, which is obviously not happy. It is frequently engaged in pipeline testing, and Europe is always out of gas
After all, Europe uses Russian natural gas, gives Ukraine aid arms to fight Russia when it is full, and accuses Russia on various occasions. Of course, Putin is not happy.
If you want to continue using my natural gas, you have to give me an explanation
Anyway, Italy has now stopped all its aid to Ukraine, on the grounds that the prime minister resigned and the government adjusted.
The second option is to import natural gas from the United States to ensure that their values are consistent with those of the United States.
It will have to bear at least 40% of the high costs, the deficit has become the norm, and the competitiveness of industrial products has declined in an all-round way.
Of course, this is not impossible. Germany has made a good start, and the automotive industry has strengthened its investment in China.
In order to maintain its industrial advantage and strengthen its competition with China, Europe can slowly move its industrial center to China
Anyway, there are only two choices. It depends on how Europe chooses.
Although Europe is not in a hurry now, von der Laine is still very happy, but he can jump for up to three months, because winter is coming soon.
Zelensky’s wife has just gone to the United States to prepare a speech. Putin said it was not urgent. Take your time. Zelensky, don’t surrender. I’ll cut meat with a blunt knife. The good play is later
Part V: the tearing of the US global chess game
Brzezinski, a former national security expert of the United States and a famous geopolitical strategy theorist, is committed to enabling the United States to dominate the world forever. His famous chess game is well-known. He believes:
As the only superpower in the world, the United States has military advantages in the world, is the main driving force of world economic growth, takes the lead in the field of cutting-edge science and technology, and American culture is attractive. However, the United States is not only the first and only superpower, but also the last superpower.
He once had a famous motto in the center:
Whoever rules the central area can control the world island;
Whoever rules the world island can control the world.
What is the world island? eurasia.
He believes that the hegemony of the United States can be transmitted to all ages until the earth perishes. The only concern he raised is:
“The biggest potential danger is that China will form a major alliance with Russia and perhaps Iran.”
He clearly wrote in his own discussion:
“The reason for forming such an anti hegemonic alliance is not ideology, but complementary dissatisfaction. This alliance is similar to the challenges posed by the Sino Soviet group in terms of scale and scope, although China may be in charge this time, and Russia is an attendant. Although the possibility of such an unexpected situation is very small, in order to prevent this situation, the United States must at the western, Eastern and southern edges of Eurasia at the same time Skillfully use geostrategic means “
“However, only when the United States adopts hostile policies towards China and Iran at the same time in a very short-sighted manner can the alliance that combines Russia with China and Iran be achieved.”
Brzezinski believes that once China, Russia and Iran form an alliance, it is the beginning of the collapse of American hegemony.
In this regard, American politics has always been regarded as a classic.
As Obama, the Democratic Party led by Biden has always wanted to ease relations with Iran and dominated the Iran nuclear agreement;
As the Republican Party headed by trump, it has always wanted to ease relations with Russia. Trump has repeatedly shown that there is room and possibility for cooperation between the United States and Russia.
But if the Democratic Party wants to cooperate with Iran, the Republican Party will tear down the platform;
If the Republican Party wants to cooperate with Russia, the Democratic Party will tear down the platform;
Anyway, everyone looks at each other, and no one is better
Finally created today’s situation.
Of course, this is also related to the geopolitics of the United States. Whether in Europe or the Middle East, the United States needs an enemy. Otherwise, without evil forces, there will be no war. How can the United States “defend peace”?
How can the military industrial complex make money without “safeguarding peace”?
Therefore, in 2021, China and Iran reached a 25 year cooperation agreement;
In 2022, Russia and Iran reached a strategic cooperation agreement;
While China and Russia have long been all-weather partnership, the mutual trust between China and Russia is not capped, and there is no forbidden zone for strategic cooperation
With the “joint efforts” of the two parties in the United States, China, Russia and Iran have slowly formed an iron triangle.
And Turkey is impatient. Don’t forget to take me with you
What awaits the United States is the collapse of the “American order” in the Middle East, Europe and the Asia Pacific.
However, it doesn’t matter. Many Americans are still very happy. This Russian Ukrainian war has made money for Wall Street, arms dealers and energy traders in the United States.
Trump is the happiest:
It’s all Biden’s fault!
Biden, please step down quickly. With me, there will be no war between Russia and Ukraine. Putin is my brother.