Original: housha source wechat official account: housha has been authorized to reprint
Biden is desperate to defeat Putin. A 79 year old man has just returned from a tour of Europe and is going to visit the Middle East again.
White House spokesman confirmed Biden’s itinerary: from July 13 to 16, President Biden will start his first trip to the Middle East since taking office, visiting Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
This is Biden’s worst visit since taking office. The main problem is Saudi Arabia. Biden didn’t want to go, but he had to go; Saudi Arabia did not welcome it and had to invite it.
Previously, the Wall Street Journal revealed that Saudi Crown Prince Salman had refused Biden’s request for a phone call. Because they know that Biden’s call is one thing – oil production!
Saudi Arabia believes that the United States should talk with OPEC, and Saudi Arabia will follow up as much as OPEC agrees to increase production.
In the context of the current military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, if Saudi Arabia cooperates with the United States to increase production significantly, it is tantamount to taking a hostile attitude towards Russia, and the local tyrants cannot commit.
Biden had to make a personal trip, but could he persuade Saudi Arabia? It depends on two things:
1? The weapons approved by the White House for sale to Saudi Arabia must be offensive and advanced to meet Saudi Arabia’s needs. Local tyrants are not bad for money. The key is whether the United States sells them?
2? Does the United States still need to do something behind the inheritance of Saudi Crown Prince Salman? The crown prince of Saudi Arabia has changed twice due to factional infighting. The United States is quite dissatisfied with Salman, the post-80s generation, and it has not once or twice secretly supported his hostile factions.
However, Biden can’t do either of these things.
The former is not only opposed by Congress, but also scrupulous about Israel. If Saudi Arabia gets as advanced weapons as Israel for oil, then the American Jewish group will not let Biden go.
The latter will affect the Democratic Party’s mid-term elections. Saudi Crown Prince Salman is an unforgivable “violent Walker” in the eyes of Democratic Party supporters.
The 87 year old king is too old. Biden can only talk and laugh with Salman, but how to explain when he comes back? This is about the political interests of the Democratic Party.
Biden was guilty before leaving. He specially wrote an article to the Washington Post saying that he knew that many people did not agree with his visit to Saudi Arabia, but his own view on human rights was clear and consistent, and the issue of fundamental freedoms was always on the agenda during each visit.
He also said that when visiting Saudi Arabia, he would adhere to “basic American values”
With such a hypocritical face, Biden’s trip is likely to end in an inside out outcome.
For Saudi Arabia, its alliance with the United States is the security guarantee of its royal regime. As long as Biden’s “gift” is not too cheap, Saudi Arabia will give Biden a face.
From the perspective of itinerary planning, Biden wants to strengthen the relationship between the United States and the two pillars of the Middle East Strategy (Israel and Saudi Arabia), at the same time, contact the Palestine Liberation Organization in Jordan, ease the Arab Israeli contradiction, fully confront Russia on the energy issue, and further exert pressure on the Shia forces led by Iran.
Coincidentally, Putin will also visit the Middle East in person and meet with Iranian leaders in Tehran. The time is next week, and it is clearly against Biden.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will also travel to Iran, reportedly to solve the Syrian problem.
However, U.S. national security assistant Sullivan said at a press conference on the 11th that Russia is to obtain hundreds of military UAVs from Iran. He meant that Russian military drones were seriously worn out in Ukraine and had to be purchased from abroad.
Iran has stockpiled a large number of unmanned aerial vehicles in recent years to prevent accidents, and it is capable of providing them. Although Sullivan did not say which country Iran’s drones came from, Iran’s purchase of military drones is a legal act. Not every country is afraid of the unilateral sanctions of the United States.
UAVs produced in Turkey have sprung up in the past two years, with good sales. Putin previously approved the sale of S-400 air defense missile systems to Turkey, so it is not impossible for Erdogan to reciprocate.
Even if Turkey dare not sell drones to Russia because of its NATO membership, it can reduce the supply of drones to Ukraine. Its flag bearer, the TB2 unmanned aerial vehicle, caused a great blow to the Russian armored vehicles on the battlefield.
Reducing the supply of Ukrainian drones and selling them to Russia have the same effect. The key is what “gift” can Putin bring to Erdogan?
Russia, Iran and Turkey also have a hidden topic, that is, Kazakhstan is at odds with Russia these days, and Turkey has influence over its oil pipeline through the Black Sea.
Besides Iran, Biden didn’t want to return to the Iran nuclear agreement, but wanted to ask Iran for a price with trump tearing up the “legacy” of the agreement.
On June 30, in the negotiations held in Doha, the capital of Qatar, the United States and Iran broke up unhappily, but there was still no result.
On July 7, the United States again sanctioned 13 companies related to Iranian oil, including companies registered in China and the United Arab Emirates.
Iran is not afraid of the United States. The two sides have been fighting for many years. With China’s long-term agreement (for 25 years, with an investment of $400billion), Iran is more confident.
For Iran, interests come first, but how to balance security interests and economic interests is a big problem at present.
Against the background of high oil prices, Iran hopes to sell more oil and produce more oil. Although the oil price has fallen a little, Iran wants to increase production to obtain economic income.
This is not something Russia would like to see.
Therefore, Iran is in an awkward situation. If it wants to seize the opportunity to obtain economic benefits, it is virtually cooperating with the United States. Once the United States gets rid of the dilemma of high oil prices, Iran’s security interests will be more threatened.
But what about Iran’s economy if it doesn’t sell oil quickly? Putin’s trip must be to coordinate this issue and let Iran achieve a balance of interests.
Iran is an open country. If Biden still plays a rogue on the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran will not only cooperate with Putin, but also challenge the West on the issue of uranium enrichment.
Reuters 11 reported that Iran has begun to use more advanced uranium enrichment technology, which will make it easier to improve from one enrichment level to another. The British did not say how Iran has improved its technology, but the West knows that there is something to be said.
As long as Iran takes further steps to possess nuclear weapons, Israel must be the country with the strongest response. Will Biden still insist on sanctions against Iran?
In short, the main interests of all parties involved in Putin’s Middle East trip are:
1? Russia has strengthened its quasi alliance with Iran to make Iran synchronize with Russia in oil production as much as possible. In fact, the Iranian drone is not Putin’s purpose. Sullivan’s release of these messages shows that the United States has a ghost in its heart and is afraid of something happening.
2? Iran, in the context of the high oil price crisis caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, played the “oil card” and in turn forced the United States to withdraw unilateral sanctions, allowing Iran to resume normal trade relations with the West.
3? Turkey, stepping on n ships and taking advantage of NATO’s identity and unique geographical location, has benefited from all parties. Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there has been no problem of Erdogan’s non integration.
Biden over hyped the kashuji case because of the interests of the Democratic Party, and now the retribution came.
After kasuji was cut into shreds in 2018, it caused a huge wave of public opinion, but trump simply suppressed the matter and did not sanction Saudi Arabia.
However, on February 26 last year, Biden asked the US intelligence department to publicly decrypt the “documents”, believing that Saudi Crown Prince Salman approved the killing of kasuji.
Originally, Saudi Arabia has thrown several scapegoats to protect the crown prince. Biden made Saudi Arabia very nervous.
Kasuji is a well-known man hiding in the Middle East of the United States. It’s just a matter of means. Who really cares about his life?
Biden also said on the same day that he would hold Saudi Arabia responsible for “human rights violations”, and the first step was to suspend the sale of offensive weapons.
Biden dug this hole and jumped it himself. He pretended to be too much.
By the end of 2018, both China, the United States and Russia had taken an attitude towards this issue.
Trump believes that some Saudi officials have committed crimes, but it has nothing to do with the crown prince. Britain and France follow up.
Putin’s press secretary Peskov said there was no reason not to believe the Saudi investigation conclusion.
Hua Chunying pointed out: this incident is unfortunate, and I hope the case can be properly handled. We will continue to pay attention.
Saudi Arabia is also very “sensible” and gave the United States a huge arms order; Invest US $500million in China Russia investment fund at one time; During the epidemic period in 2020, 85million tons of oil were exported to China at the most preferential price.
Saudi Arabia burns incense everywhere in order to gain global recognition for the succession of the crown prince and let competitors die.
Biden reopened the case, what did the United States get? Democratic supporters applauded, but what they lost was the trust of the Saudi royal family.
Biden wants to engage in “values” diplomacy, so why should he go to Saudi Arabia? Besides, people don’t welcome him in the capital, but in Jeddah. Biden is still shy and insists on going.
Since it can be traded, aren’t American “democracy”, “freedom” and “human rights” for sale?
The United States and Russia also shot at the Middle East, but Biden is much less likely to achieve his wish than Putin.
What Putin promised can be done. Is Biden OK?
Next, there will be a big play in the Middle East.
The hegemony of the United States in the Middle East can no longer be maintained, and Biden Sr. is unable to return to heaven. The Middle East will reshuffle. Gently ask, which one is better?