Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (id:rongping898) has been authorized to reprint
Biden has been shaved recently.
The reason is that Zelinski accused Russia of “stealing food” in the occupied area of Ukraine, and then reselling it through the Crimean port, making a windfall.
Biden immediately came out to echo Zelensky’s accusation, saying Ozawa was right. The evidence is conclusive. Since the beginning of the “special military operation”, Russia has sold up to 500000 tons of Ukrainian wheat, worth at least $100 million.
As soon as the United States stated its position, the United Kingdom and the European Union joined in one after another, insisting that Russia was “stealing”.
Of course, the Russian side denied that the three companies had been established, but it was useless, so the two sides hit the United Nations all the way.
Then it’s interesting.
Recently, the spokesman of the United Nations Secretary General said that they had communicated with the world food programme, and this could not be verified.
In other words, where is your hard evidence?
What’s more, in the middle of last month, Biden personally warned 14 African countries that Russian grain ships were coming to you. These grains were “stolen” from Ukraine, and you were helping to increase “war crimes” by buying them.
As a result, African countries ignored him at all. They not only bought food, but also, half a month after receiving the “warning”, African Union chairman in office and Senegalese president Salle and African Union Commission Chairman Moussa went to Russia to meet Putin and said a lot of things the West did not like to hear.
For example, the United States tried to prevent the preparation of the “Russia Africa summit”. For example, it wanted to expand the dialogue between Russia and the African Union in the political, economic and cultural fields. Most importantly, Saleh also called on Africa on behalf of Africa. The Western sanctions against Russia made it impossible for Africa to obtain food and fertilizer, which worsened the current food situation. Therefore, the sanctions on food and fertilizer should be lifted.
This will not give Biden face.
And it’s not just Africa that doesn’t give face.
According to Zelensky, some countries that publicly support Ukraine and even publicly condemn Putin are now flirting with Putin, trying to buy Russia’s “stolen” grain at a “cheaper” price.
So to speak, countries that publicly supported Ukraine and denounced Putin in the past either wore a pair of trousers with the west, or could be easily “intimidated” by the West. Previously, they were unambiguous in standing in line. Now, because of the food problem, they are actually going to turn back and become “accomplices to Russia’s crimes”.
The war is still going on. This is a blatant “vote for Russia”!
If what ZELINSKY said is true, Putin will undoubtedly win another game on the food issue!
Speaking of which, are you surprised.
According to Western data, Russia has been fighting for more than 100 days, burning 900million US dollars in military spending every day. However, only 500000 tons of grain have been sold after “stealing” for so long, and only 100million dollars have been earned. Is this achievement really worth arousing the US and European countries to come out and criticize repeatedly?
Moreover, the United States has no moral advantage in “stealing food”.
At this time last year, it was exposed that the US army stole food and oil in convoys in the occupied Syrian area. Moreover, the US Army not only stole, but also set fire to wheat fields with anti-government forces in order not to benefit the Assad regime, creating an artificial famine.
With the United States’ pearl and jade in front, how can Russia be accused of “stealing food”? What’s the use of your reproach?
In that case, why should the United States pull the European Union, Britain and Ukraine and shout all over the world that Russia “steals food”?
The reason is that the food crisis is getting worse and worse, and we can hardly hold it down!
For the western developed countries, food prices can not be held down, and the cost of living is rising all the way. The anger of the people will be vented to the rulers. From Biden to the leaders in Europe, no one can think about it.
For developing countries, from the “Arab Spring” ten years ago to the riots in Kazakhstan in January this year, the fuse was the rise in the prices of special commodities such as food and fuel. In particular, this year’s food crisis was the most serious one after World War II. The turbulence caused by the rise in prices may also be unprecedented.
So someone has to carry the blame for this crisis?
Who is the best person to carry the pot? No doubt Putin who initiated the war!
So whether the west says that Russia “steals grain”, obstructs Ukraine’s grain export, deliberately hoards grain and does not sell it, or “Putin raises prices” caused by the war, it is actually the same thing, that is, to “politicize” the grain problem and put the responsibility for all kinds of chaos in the grain supply chain and the global food crisis on Putin.
In order to achieve this goal, the United States and Russia have fought back and forth recently around the issue of “who should be responsible”——
Biden: it is precisely because of Putin’s recklessness that he provoked the war between the world’s two most important exporters of agricultural products and fertilizers, which plunged hundreds of millions of people into a food crisis and made the world’s most vulnerable groups bear the price of his anger. Therefore, Putin is the culprit of the global food crisis!
Putin: you put P! Is the global food problem just happening today? As early as 20 years ago, you planted the seeds when the United States launched sanctions around the world and waged wars in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya.
The conflict in Ukraine just poured a bucket of water into the dam that was about to burst. It has little impact on the global agricultural problem. What is the real impact? It is the Western illegal sanctions against Russia!
Biden: right? The export of Russian food and chemical fertilizers is not in the list of sanctions at all. For example, the export of chemical fertilizers is prohibited by Russia itself!
Putin: (sneering) don’t be ashamed! The wharf, logistics and finance have also been sanctioned. Russia’s grain and chemical fertilizers need to be transported abroad on a large scale. Can you find a ship? Are you insured? Have you got the money? What’s the difference between prohibition and compulsion?
And the consequences of sanctions are not limited to Russia.
For example, the potash fertilizer in Belarus, which is also the leader of the global agricultural means of production market, is it sanctioned for you? Without the potash fertilizer of Belarus, how much impact will it have on global agricultural production?
For example, Yemen is starving all over the country, not to mention food. It can’t even buy much-needed medicines. Is it a war between Russia and Ukraine? It is not because of your sanctions that no one in the international community dare to do business with them!
(ten minutes later) however, Ukraine has grain, 25million tons, which can completely alleviate the current food crisis. But you, Russia, in order to “blackmail” the world to support the war, deliberately blockaded the Black Sea ports and prevented the export of Ukrainian grain, saying that the current food problem is not your responsibility?
Putin: which eye of yours saw Russia blockade the black sea? We absolutely support the export of grain to Ukraine.
In order to ensure that Ukraine can export grain, our army has specially reserved a 148km safe passage so that the grain in Ukraine can be sent to Odessa port. When we arrived in Odessa, we opened an 80 mile long humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea, which is kept open every day.
But why haven’t there been any grain ships out so far?
Zelensky won’t release the merchant ship? Afraid of being detained by the Russian navy in the black sea? Most importantly, have the more than 400 mines put by Ukraine in the Black Sea been cleared?
The mine is still floating in the sea. I let it go. Dare you go?
Besides, did the grain shipped from Ukraine go to central and northeast Africa? Are they all sent to European warehouses in the name of “saving the southern hemisphere” in exchange for Western weapons supplies? A hooligan is a hooligan. What a good man!
Biden: Er You war criminal!
In fact, both sides are bullshit, but one thing is certain: the global food crisis is really not Putin’s pot.
According to the UN Secretary General Guterres, the influencing factors of the food crisis are: the war in Ukraine, the new crown pandemic, climate change and the lack of funds for poor countries to tide over the crisis. Under the combined effect, this has formed a “powerful storm that may destroy the economies of many developing countries”.
But it can also be seen from here that Guterres’ butt is obviously askew.
Why do you say that?
First of all, we should make it clear that the root cause of the current food crisis is not “food shortage”, but “rising prices”.
According to the forecast data of the U.S. Department of agriculture in May, Ukraine’s wheat export in 2022 is expected to drop from 19million tons last year to 10million tons, which is indeed almost half short.
On the other hand, Russia’s wheat export increased by 60% year-on-year in March and 200% year-on-year in April. In addition to the record harvest of Russian wheat production this year, Putin has promised that Russia’s wheat export this year will increase to 50million tons, not less than last year’s 37million tons.
At the same time, in 2022, Canada’s wheat exports will also increase by 8.5 million tons, and the EU countries will increase by 5million tons. Even if it is the shortage of Ukraine, the total global wheat exports will exceed 205million tons, more than 2021’s 202million tons.
So the question is food shortage? Not at all!
The real problem is that food prices have risen.
Then why did the price rise?
Guterres is right about all this, but there are two main reasons not to say.
First, some people deliberately amplified the food crisis in order to manipulate market sentiment and create food panic.
So who is causing the panic? Or who will benefit from it?
The answer is obvious. 80% of the world’s grain transactions are controlled by the “four major grain traders” of American adami, Bangui, Cargill and French Louis Dreyfus. Under this high monopoly, grain prices are undoubtedly their tool for cutting global leeks.
In fact, from January to April this year, the shares of adami and Bangui rose by 50% and 40% respectively. The value of Cargill family soared, and the profits of Louis Dreyfus increased by 80%. This business is even more prosperous than that of American arms dealers.
They made huge profits by operating the market, which has long been an open routine. Back in 1973 and 2008, during the two food crises, these grain traders were full of oil by hoarding, buying high and selling low.
Under their instigation, the world is now “caught up” in the food panic. At least 35 countries and regions have issued export bans on agricultural products, and even India, which likes to sell food, dare not sell it. The food supply chain is in chaos, and the food prices are further pushed up, which is tantamount to entering a vicious circle.
Another more important reason is that the United States released water during the epidemic.
From trump to Biden, a large number of excessive US dollars were issued during the epidemic. Although it did stimulate the domestic economy and relieve the domestic people, where will these excessive US dollars eventually go?
The energy and food markets are undoubtedly the best targets!
So don’t look at Biden pushing the rise of energy and food to Putin’s war, but as Putin said, these two major items had gone crazy last year long before the war began. The war is only a superficial reason. The root cause is the excess liquidity of the US dollar.
One is the monopoly of giants, and the other is the excessive issuance of US dollars. Biden is helpless for these two factors. Guterres dare to say?
It is precisely because of these two “force majeure” that the current food crisis can be said to be insoluble.
What if there is no solution? You can only throw the pot!
Of course, even if the fire can’t be extinguished, the people in your country and all countries around the world can watch. Do you still have to do some fire fighting?
Looking at the recent situation in the United States, if Biden does not make some achievements, the Americans will really tear him apart.
How do you put out the fire?
Now the only thing that can release a large amount of supply is Ukraine!
According to the data of the United Nations, the current grain storage in Ukraine is still 25million tons, and it may be increased by 40million tons by the harvest season in August.
The release of tens of millions of tons of grain will, to some extent, reduce the high grain prices.
However, if the 25million tons of old grain are not transported out before the harvest season in August, and the new grain is not stored in the warehouse, a large amount of grain can only be allowed to rot. at that time, the panic in the international grain market focusing on Ukraine will only be worse.
So the window period in the months before August is very important.
At the EU summit that ended on May 31, EU countries were quite United on this issue and agreed to help Ukraine empty its granary in the next three months.
However, commitment belongs to commitment, and the actual operation is not easy.
As we analyzed in the previous article, because of the Black Sea impasse, Ukrainian grain can only be transported by land from its European neighbors and then by barge.
The main way to travel by land is by railway. However, the Soviet made railway in Ukraine is incompatible with the railway in Europe, so the train chassis must be replaced and reshipped before entering the European territory.
In this way, the railway capacity squeezed out of Europe is not enough.
At present, the German railway company has three freight trains to deliver food from Ukraine to Western Europe every day. However, it takes an average of half a month to a month for these trains to come out after they arrive in Western Europe.
The reasons behind this are: first, Ukraine is fighting a war. It is too risky to buy food and send food without insurance.
Second, even if the grain is transported to the EU border, because Ukraine is not an EU country, the procedure will be very troublesome. For example, there is no need for all kinds of cumbersome documents between European Member States, and the customs clearance process is simple. Even if the goods in Ukraine lack a certificate, they will be stopped for several days, even ten days at most.
In this case, which logistics company will have the enthusiasm to take over the work?
After the grain enters the European territory, it still needs enough transport capacity to transfer, which is another bottleneck.
Today, in Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Slovenia, large grain trucks often queue for several kilometers. Globegroup.com also forwarded a video shot by foreign netizens last month. The content is that 40 kilometers of grain trucks are blocked. The scene is spectacular.
The Romanian side said that their freight employees have been on 24-hour shifts, the truck flow has increased by 400%, and the border ports and ports are in the “limit state”, but this is not enough.
You know, last year, Ukraine exported 5million tons of grain every month. According to the load of a large truck of 25 tons, how many large trucks are needed every month? How much transport capacity can Romania and other countries pump out?
In the past, 95% of Ukrainian grain was transported by sea. Now, this 95% capacity has been abruptly added to the transportation network of a small country like Romania. It is a good thing not to collapse. Can we expect to make more efforts?
Therefore, the final problem is to return to shipping.
At present, Ukrainian grain should be transported by sea, and there are roughly three schemes.
First, dredge the Black Sea and restore the operation of Odessa port in Ukraine.
If we want to dredge the Black Sea, we must first mention the strange man who has frequently stirred up the international situation, tied up NATO and changed the color of neighboring countries: Turkey, Egypt and Sudan.
Like the previous mediation of Russia Ukraine peace talks and the coordination of navigation in the Black Sea, Egypt and Sudan are also rarely recognized by Russia and Ukraine at the same time.
However, both sides have their own requirements.
The Ukrainian side said that the channel of Odessa has been opened. What should Russia do to attack Ukraine? Therefore, there must be a “security guarantee” mediated by the United Nations. In addition, the passage of Russian warships in the Odessa port area must be restricted, and the Ukrainian sea direction must be safe before navigation.
The Russian side said that in order to open the channel, Turkey should first assist in demining, because we do not trust the West; Secondly, we must ensure that Ukraine does not use this sea route to transport weapons; Third, Russia’s grain and fertilizer can be resold to the world, but you have to lift some sanctions.
The third point is the focus of Russia’s appeal.
At present, Turkey and the United Nations are mediating on this plan, but the parties have different opinions.
The Sultan of Egypt feels that, as Putin said, it is a good thing to lift the sanctions on Russian food and fertilizer in exchange for large grain exports from Russia and Ukraine.
The news revealed by the United Nations is that if food exports are linked to the lifting of sanctions, the negotiations will be difficult to push forward, and things have been complicated.
Of course, regardless of the opinions of Egypt, Sudan and the United Nations, the issue of sanctions must finally be decided by the United States.
Biden has made it clear that the United States does not accept “blackmail diplomacy”. As long as it involves relaxing sanctions against Russia, this matter will not be discussed.
Therefore, it is estimated that Ukrainian food will be very hard to get out of the Black Sea.
The second plan is to transport through Belarus through the Baltic Sea.
Ukraine passes through Belarus to the north and is the “friendly countries” of the Baltic Sea, such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The ports of these three countries are relatively strong in the whole Europe in terms of transporting bulk raw materials.
Moreover, compared with taking the European land route, this route also has an obvious advantage – Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic Sea are all former Soviet countries with a common railway system, which is the most convenient in technology and lower in cost.
The only problem is to cross Belarus in the middle.
Then Putin and Lukashenko will take the opportunity to put forward conditions: the sanctions against Belarus will be lifted, and the ports of Germany, Poland, the Baltic States and Russia will also be open to Belarusian goods.
Rounding this statement is equivalent to lifting some sanctions on Belarus and Russia at the same time.
To this, ZELINSKY just replied “ha ha” without expression.
The third plan is more dangerous, that is, NATO will go out to “escort” and forcibly lift the blockade on Ukrainian ports.
The biggest jump on this issue is a powerful country that the earth has no room for: Lithuania.
When the Lithuanian foreign minister and the British Foreign Minister discussed the Odessa issue, they put forward a genius proposal: “it can be considered that other countries provide ships or aircraft to station in the Black Sea area, and provide protection for the maritime passage from Odessa port to Bosporus gorge in Turkey”.
This is essentially no different from the no fly zone.
Because this passage is much easier to walk than land. If you can transport grain, you can certainly transport weapons.
Moreover, Russia has always attached great importance to the Black Sea. Now the Russian army has an absolute advantage in the Black Sea. Can you honestly let in a batch of Western warships and aircraft? Last year, British warships recklessly rushed into the Black Sea, but the Russian army fired directly to expel them.
In addition, the entrance of the Black Sea is in the hands of Turkey, which banned warships after the war. At the moment, the Sultan of Egypt is opening a big mouth to NATO lions. Can you easily get in and out?
Therefore, this plan is basically not feasible, and the Pentagon has explicitly rejected it.
However, all parties are still a little excited about this plan. Ukrainian foreign minister kuleba hailed it loudly, called on NATO to end the blockade of ports, and “questioned whether NATO has the ‘courage’ to do so”.
NATO countries are also not reconciled to this. The United States and Denmark announced high-profile that they would provide Ukraine with “harpoon” anti-ship missiles. However, the supply of such missiles that can hit Russian warships in the Black Sea means that the military assistance to Ukraine goes beyond the territory of Ukraine. In fact, it is an escalation of the war. At that time, the retaliation of the Russian army in control of the black sea will only be more intense, and the opening of the food route in the black sea will be even more distant.
In fact, none of the three plans is feasible, and Ukrainian grain still cannot be transported out.
Only relying on the current European ant like transportation, it can not save the fire in the global market.
Seeing through this layer, we can see that the United States and Europe are shouting all over the world about the Ukrainian food issue. In fact, it is a gesture of performance, just to let the world know. Look, we have tried, but the road has been blocked by Putin, and we have no choice.
Can’t solve the problem. This pot has to be thrown out, doesn’t it?
At the end of the article, the author said:
As the “superior” of the current international order, the inability of the west to solve the food problem will inevitably cause countries to resist the western “order”.
For example, after Africa ignored Biden’s “warning” not to buy Russian food, and even voiced its opposition to Western sanctions with Russia, a Kenyan think tank came out to satirize that Africans do not care where to buy food now. If someone thinks that the food problem can be moralized, it is simply too much.
The “moralized” weapons have always been used by the United States as a weapon to interfere with other countries, and have always been unfavourable.
On the contrary, Russia is playing more and more smoothly in its hand. The Russian army on the battlefield is playing various “weaponized” chips, and its global influence is increasing instead of decreasing.
The “friendship” of the African Union at the critical moment, as well as the closeness of countries that once condemned Putin, have proved this.
To some extent, Putin’s prediction of reshaping the international order has begun to be partially fulfilled!