Biden’s domestic and foreign difficulties, China’s diplomacy staged a big counterattack!

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Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (id:rongping898) has been authorized to reprint

In recent months, the frequency of high-level dialogues between China and the United States has increased significantly——

On June 10, Wei Fenghe held talks with U.S. Defense Secretary Austin;

On June 13, Yang Jiechi met with Sullivan, assistant to the president of the United States for national security affairs, in Luxembourg;

On July 5, Liu He called US Treasury Secretary Yellen at request;

On July 7, at request, Li zuocheng spoke with Milly, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff of the US military;

On July 9, Wang Yi met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting.

In just one month, the top officials in charge of national defense, security, economy and foreign affairs of China and the United States have met one after another, and China is basically an “invited” dialogue.

This is an obvious signal!

You know, at present, the rhythm of China US relations is mainly controlled by the United States. The main tone of Americans is “competition”, so China and the United States have always been dominated by confrontation.

But now that the United States has suddenly launched such intensive contacts, from blindly suppressing to actively interacting, it can only explain one problem – the adjustment of the United States’ China policy!

Why adjust it?

The main reason is that the domestic economic problems in the United States cannot be suppressed.

According to the latest data, the CPI of the United States rose by 9.1% year-on-year in June, setting a new 40 year record. The White House had to admit that inflation was “unacceptably high”.

With high inflation, the U.S. economic recession is imminent. The International Monetary Fund has just released a report, which sharply lowered the expected GDP growth rate of the United States in 2022 and 2023. Some American economists even predicted that the United States has actually entered a “technical recession”, and the real recession is not far away.

In this case, it is no surprise that Biden’s support rate has fallen below 30% all the way, and his disapproval rate is as high as 57%. He has become the “most unpopular president of the United States” after Truman. What makes Biden more uncomfortable is that even when trump, whom he despises, is most hated by Americans, his support rate is 5-6 percentage points higher than him.

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Furthermore, as soon as economic problems break out, external problems are ignored.

Let’s look at the recent tone of the United States. Apart from China, what tendency does Biden show on the three most troublesome issues in the world?

——On the issue of Ukraine, the US media have been intensively manufacturing “expectations” recently, exaggerating that the United States “may not be able to maintain the level of support for Ukraine for a long time”, and has shown the intention of letting Zelensky live and die.

——On the issue of Iran, Biden condescended to visit the Middle East in person, mainly in the hope that the allies in the Middle East would unite to share the worries of the master. In other words, the United States wanted to weaken its role in deterring Iraq and let its little brothers.

——On the Korean issue. Yin Xiyue’s coming to power provoked North Korea to test fire missiles one after another, but the United States did not choose to compete with North Korea or impose strong sanctions. Instead, it chose to calm down and turn to China for help.

These major trends all show that the United States is now engaged in “strategic contraction” on external issues, hoping to get rid of several big burdens as soon as possible.

Why should we dump the burden? Because even if Biden has made achievements in diplomacy, it will not help the domestic public opinion support. The only thing that can raise public opinion is the economy.

So in the final analysis, Biden’s focus must now return to the economy.

However, neither the economic problems of the United States nor the problems of Russia, Iran and North Korea can be bypassed by cooperation with China.

Since he can’t get around it, Biden has to make some compromises and postpone the confrontation with China at this difficult time of domestic and foreign affairs.

Thus, there is a series of dialogues initiated by the United States.

However, the game is two-sided. The United States can decide the pace of playing cards, and China also has a Chinese attitude.

At the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting, China’s attitude has completely changed!

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Before the meeting

Before the meeting between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Antony Blinken on July 9, the Chinese side mainly paved the way for three things.

First, set the tone.

Before the G20 meeting, Xinhua News Agency issued three powerful articles in a row, sharply exposing the triple illusion of American Hegemony:

“Invincible illusion” – the era of “invincible” in the United States has passed, and now it is a paper tiger.

“Moral illusion” – the United States is not “the embodiment of justice”, and is not qualified to gossip about other countries.

“Illusion of unity” – the United States and its allies are seemingly at odds, and are increasingly confused into a lonely person who cannot recognize reality.

Now that these three illusions have been punctured, China’s meaning is also very clear – no matter from which angle, the United States is not qualified to bully, seduce, and dictate to China. It’s better to put its own position right!

At the same time, in recent months of bilateral contacts, we also have three words to pave the way for the interests that China is most concerned about——

The first sentence is what Wei Fenghe, the Chinese defense minister, said at the Shangri La dialogue: “if someone dares to split Taiwan, we will not hesitate to fight.”.

The second sentence is also drawn directly to the United States by the military: “the Taiwan Strait is not international waters”.

The third sentence is the warning of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the “fence” built by the United States: “the fence of China US relations is the three Sino US joint communiques”.

Through these three sentences, China’s attitude will come out: China’s bottom line is clear, and it is ready for a face off between China and the United States!

This “aggressive” strong attitude and the practice of defining concepts and rules in Sino US relations can be said to be relatively rare in China’s nearly 40 years of diplomatic history.

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Second, show force.

The United States is used to exerting extreme pressure before the meeting, especially Biden. Every time the China US conference is held, it is bound to provoke the Taiwan issue. For example, before the meeting, the United States senator from Florida was arranged to “visit Taiwan”.

But now China is not used to it. On the day the U.S. congressman arrived in Taiwan, the eastern theater command directly organized a practical drill in the sea and airspace around Taiwan. Then the Ministry of defense came up with a question, saying, “the Chinese people’s Liberation Army is ready for war at all times and is ready to fight at any time!”

This is the bottom line problem corresponding to China, showing the determination and ability to the United States.

If the United States does not play the Taiwan card, there is no card of the same magnitude to play at present; However, if the United States has been manipulating the Taiwan issue and has been strengthening its military and diplomatic support for Taiwan, China’s attitude there is likely to directly turn political confrontation into a local war.

At that time, the United States will not only lose Taiwan as a strategic pawn forever, no matter how difficult it is to check and balance China in the Pacific, but also face the situation that Ukraine and Taiwan fight on two fronts and cannot end in two places.

So this is also a warning: every time the United States moves Taiwan, China has reason to engage in a cruise or exercise in the Taiwan Strait. The United States cannot cross the red line, but every small move will undoubtedly tilt the balance of military reunification towards the mainland.

Third, with rhythm.

We are very clear that at every international summit, the United States will use the Russian Ukrainian issue to engage in political coercion. Every time China is forced to fight, it appears very passive.

How to deal with it?

Our strategy this time is to strike first. Before meeting with Antony Blinken, foreign minister Wang Yi met with several major forces, including the foreign minister of Russia, the diplomatic representative of the European Union and the foreign minister of India, and delivered a high-profile message: on the issue of Ukraine, China is on the right side of history, and Western sanctions are illegitimate and illegal, and will not last long!

This position was put forward before the discussion, which clearly told Antony Blinken that China simply did not recognize the so-called logic of “standing on the right side of history” of the United States, and that the practice of the United States occupying the “great righteousness” and forcing other countries to stand in line did not work here in China.

Originally, the United States hoped to use these major international summits to divide countries into two camps in order to follow or not follow the position of the West on the Ukrainian issue, but now China has put forward its position first, and the United States will not be able to engage in the “moral leader” set.

Therefore, foreign media commented that China’s strategy successfully prevented the United States from turning the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting into a “one-sided game”.

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During the meeting

The previous China-U.S. talks did not produce any results, but in the end, the United States basically said one thing and did another, and the results of the negotiations were not implemented at all.

This time, we won’t talk about the general direction with the United States, but we will talk about it in detail.

For example, make a list.

During the China US Tianjin talks in July 2021, China once provided two lists, including the list of wrong policies and words and deeds towards China and the list of key cases of concern to China.

However, the US side did not see any major movement in implementing the rectification.

Therefore, at this meeting, we stepped up and directly put forward four lists. On the basis of the original two lists, we added a list of China related bills of major concern to China and a list of cooperation in eight areas between China and the United States.

The list is more numerous, more detailed and broader. It includes not only assignments for the United States to correct, but also areas in which the United States has to cooperate and talk with China, such as climate change and public health.

What does this mean?

It shows that China is already trying to dominate the direction of Sino US relations!

To cooperate, we should unlock the level of cooperation according to China’s list.

If you don’t cooperate, China will accompany you. Anyway, China is the largest import market of the United States, and the United States is only China’s third largest trading partner. The United States needs Chinese goods more than China needs the American market. Finally, it depends on who can survive!

Another example is to ask.

As for the consensus reached in the previous dialogue between China and the United States, since the Americans do not know how to implement it, China will draw a detailed line to tell you what to do and what not to do.

For example, since the United States does not support Taiwan’s “independence”, is it wrong to empty out and distort “one China” in action? Is it time to stop “cutting sausage” on the Taiwan issue? Should the policy of playing the “Taiwan card” to obstruct China’s reunification be changed?

Anyway, China’s requirements are laid out in detail. The United States wants to build a “guardrail”. How to build it is teaching homework hand in hand!

After the meeting

The real highlight of this meeting is actually that there are two weathervane events after the meeting.

First, the United States was beaten in the face.

Biden had previously said publicly that he planned to hold talks with Chinese leaders, but the time was not determined.

But that time, the Chinese foreign ministry slapped on the face, saying that it had no plans to talk with Biden for the time being.

As a result, on the second day of the Sino US foreign ministers’ meeting, Antony Blinken could not wait to unilaterally announce that Sino US leaders were expected to meet in the coming weeks.

Then the slap from the Ministry of foreign affairs came in time: it is very important for the heads of state of China and the United States to maintain exchanges, which should be jointly agreed by both sides through diplomatic channels, and create favorable conditions and atmosphere for this.

We are open to the talks, but we have no intention to talk at present, because the United States has not shown concrete sincerity, and it is not time to talk!

The comparison between the anxiety of the United States and the calmness of China came out at once, and China is undoubtedly the more advantageous side.

Both China and the United States hope to ease relations, so the leaders of China and the United States will definitely sit down and talk in the end, but when to talk, China is not in a hurry. Anyway, the list and requirements are given. How the United States does it depends on how urgent your domestic and diplomatic issues are.

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Second, the shift of US allies.

Before and after the meeting between foreign minister Wangyi and Antony Blinken, they met with the foreign ministers of many allies of the United States. The attitude of all parties towards China has changed greatly.

For example, the EU high representative for foreign and security policy Borrelli said three very important points: the EU adheres to Strategic Autonomy; It has always been believed that the common interests between Europe and China far outweigh differences; We are willing to firmly pursue the one China policy and carry out more strategic coordination and cooperation with China.

“Strategic Autonomy” indicates the EU’s “neutral” attitude in the competition between China and the United States, “common interests outweigh differences” indicates the EU’s willingness to cooperate with China; “Strategic coordination and cooperation” is to show China the sincerity of the EU not to engage in camp confrontation.

These are undoubtedly the three words that China hopes to hear most in China EU relations.

Not only the European Union, but also Australia.

Australian Foreign Minister Huang Yingxian said that in the face of some complex factors in Australia China relations, the Australian side has no intention of amplifying the differences between the two sides and participating in the containment of China. The Australian government will continue to pursue the one China policy and hopes to take the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries as an opportunity to stabilize bilateral relations and achieve mutual benefit.

This is another positive signal.

Coincidentally, on the third day after the Sino US foreign ministers’ meeting, the long delayed second stage negotiation of the China South Korea free trade agreement was restarted again. The South Korean representative said a meaningful sentence, “we will participate in the negotiation with a more active attitude in the future”.

Whether it is the European Union, Australia or South Korea, in the context of the competition between China and the United States, suddenly show goodwill to China. An iron headed old yin-yang man like Australia, who not long ago showed a tough stance to the end, is now actually going to restart bilateral relations. Who is behind this? Who is giving in?

After the “three visions” of the United States went through the gang, the wind direction of the world finally began to change!

At the end of the article, the author has something to say

Of course, even if Biden is on fire and in urgent need of China’s cooperation, it is difficult for him to put down his body in fact.

One is the domestic political environment in the United States, which does not allow Biden to make obvious concessions to China.

The other is that the United States needs to create the appearance of a united front against China. Whether it fights or not, it must take the lead in Anti China posture, or its allies will disperse.

So while Biden was “seeking dialogue”, he intensified his efforts and frantically explored the waters around China.

Further, take two steps back. This is the policy limitation of the United States itself. Even a change of president will not be able to change this impasse.

From the perspective of China, since Yang Jiechi’s sentence “the United States is not qualified to talk to China from its power position” at the anchorage meeting last March, China has been taking the initiative to try to knock the United States down from that condescending posture.

The initiative and flexible diplomacy shown by China at the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting, in which China began to define the concept, rules and list of Sino US relations, is an attempt by China to talk to the United States “from the perspective of strength and status”.

Now China’s homework has been arranged, whether it is war or peace. Whether it is necessary to rescue the election at the end of the year depends on Biden’s wisdom!

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