Author: villa owner source: mikuangtouzi (id:mikuangtouzi)
The nature and causes of this global inflation are fundamentally different from the previous inflation in history.
When the production system is prone to collapse, the Fed’s high-speed and simple monetary tightening may lead to a worldwide physical and financial depression.
In the future, we have to make a worse… Or better plan.
I don’t know how many scenes make people “want to be angry but don’t dare to be angry”, but generally it’s nothing more than “when the stomach is almost choked, the people in the toilet not only don’t move their nest, but also pass you a bottle of Kaiselu from the crack of the door”
You mean angry?
Dare not… Afraid to burst out in excitement
But not angry?
I feel… Too bullying!
Now, Ms. Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, this should be the case
The Wall Street Journal published a survey report this month. They conducted a public opinion survey with the national public opinion research center.
Among the respondents, up to 83% believe that the current economic situation in the United States is “bad” or “very poor”.
46% of the people think that the future is hopeless, lie flat! I think it is almost impossible to improve living standards in the future.
At the same time, nearly 70% of the respondents feel that inflation is the most serious problem at present.
Deadly food prices, deadly energy prices, deadly daily necessities and even more deadly credit cards.
Therefore, nearly 80% of the people said that who will vote for the mid-term elections in November this year depends entirely on the subsequent commodity prices.
It’s so noisy that inflation has been so fierce that it is closely linked to the votes, and the time is only three months away from the mid-term elections. Who do you think is in a hurry?
Ms. Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, was so anxious that she had shouted at the Senate hearing that the US inflation was at an unacceptable level.
If inflation goes up again, I can’t go on!!
really It’s like having diarrhea. The difficulty of holding back is directly related to the distance to the toilet, especially the last few steps of opening the door. It must take a lifetime to suppress the original impulse.
Therefore, it is urgent to quickly and effectively alleviate or transfer the inflationary pressure.
The antidote given by a group of White House advisers headed by Ms. Yellen is very direct: to remove some special tariffs imposed on Chinese goods during the trump period.
As long as the import barriers are cleared, a large number of goods can flow into the U.S. market, and the flying U.S. dollars can flow to China.
To put it bluntly, goods belong to the United States and inflation belongs to China.
Seriously speaking, this move is really excellent!
It belongs to the aboveboard Yang Mou.
The United States can obtain tens of hundreds of pieces of goods with less than half a cent of paper to export inflation.
As for China, even if it knows that it wants to do so, there is no reason to refuse.
After all, a large number of foreign exchange reserve inflows and trade export incentives can also effectively stimulate domestic production and income capacity, and seriously return blood to the industrial and commercial manufacturing industry under the control of the epidemic.
Both countries can also give play to their natural attributes: one buys, the other makes.
This in itself is a catch-up plan. It’s a matter of firewood meets fire. It’s just that China is not as worried as the United States. After all, it’s not us who smash the toilet door with our legs.
So, it’s not terrible to be upset. Whoever holds back will be embarrassed
In the words of Taiwan’s famous talker guozhengliang, the mainland really doesn’t want to talk to him.
Biden, after all, is in his 80s. It seems that he is not as urgent about this kind of thing as US Treasury Secretary Yellen. When asked by reporters last week, he still said slowly: “I am making a decision.”.
Biden is not in a hurry. Yellen is in a hurry
Besides Yellen, everyone can understand that the elderly are “calm and dignified”.
In his opinion, he may also want to see whether it is useful for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet, and then make a decision. After all, the money printing in the previous two years was a little too fierce.
This is similar to our hell inflation. It turns out that we just burn some gold coins for our ancestors. There is no definite number. The hell currency should be stable for thousands of years until one day a sun thief set up a heaven and earth bank. A good guy’s piece is 2W billion, and a burn is more than a dozen pounds.
The Lord of hell said, “who can stand this? I have maintained the price for thousands of years. Let you do it for me in two days!”
If you print more money, you can use financial instruments to recycle it. If you reduce the amount of money, inflation will come down. In fact, this idea is not wrong.
But judging from the current situation, even if the Fed’s “split table contraction” tactics are used, the effect is not so good.
He may have overlooked a key point: the nature and causes of this inflation are fundamentally different from those of previous inflation in history. Perhaps it is not because there is too much money printed.
Next, let’s be honest.
During the trump period, although there was an excess of hundreds of billions and trillions, in fact, the world inflation situation was not serious at that time.
Until the outbreak of the epidemic led to the real arrival of global decoupling and the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the sudden inflation index began to erupt like a volcano.
The reason is that the word “inflation” itself is not a pure monetary concept.
He is a linkage concept to express the relationship between material production and supply and current money.
Inflation itself means that the inflation rate of circulating money is much higher than that of material supply, resulting in a general rise in commodity prices.
In fact, both “rapid increase in money supply” and “rapid decrease in material supply” will cause inflation.
This round of inflation is obvious. It was a normal currency war at the beginning, but people are not as good as God!
Originally, a sweater War + global decoupling meant that everyone threw “right a” at each other. Although the cards were big, both sides still had big cards to hold down, and the excessive issuance of currency could still be controlled.
As a result, who knows, the epidemic is more ferocious than expected, and the global decoupling is a sham!
It’s very uncomfortable, but it’s still OK at that time. Generally speaking, it’s OK to manage a “pair 2”.
Unexpectedly, after throwing the “right 2” to Russia, I thought I could crush him, so that I could get blood back from the hairy bear.
Who knows that Putin doesn’t talk about martial arts, sneaks into the old man, and comes up with the blast of King Tianhu
Nearly 20% of the natural gas, crude oil and coal supplies were directly used up, and then Ukraine failed, and nearly 20% of the world’s food supply was lost.
Food and energy, on the other hand, are the bottom price tag of all commodities and social activities.
A 20 per cent reduction in their supply is not simply equivalent to a 20 per cent jump in the global monetary aggregate.
The most simple metaphor is that ten people eat ten portions of grain, one for one yuan.
At this time, two portions were suddenly missing, and two out of ten people had to starve to death. At this time, the grain price was not as simple as a dollar two.
In addition to the continuous world geopolitical tension and the collapse of supply chains, the current situation is: the three negative factors of money overflow + supply contraction + hunger game work together.
Therefore, inflation this time is really not a problem that can be solved only through monetary means. At least until the global supply chain is restored and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is over, there is basically no single means to contain it.
This is certain, it can be said that death!
Moreover, we should make a very bad plan, that is, if the Fed continues to do so, it may lead to seamless connection between big inflation and big deflation!
Because now we are facing the problem of the collapse of the seamless production chain after the initial overload. It is the decline in manufacturing and material supply that has contributed to this round of big inflation.
Then, when the production system is prone, the high-speed and simple monetary tightening may lead to a worldwide physical and financial depression.
In addition, an old man who was not in a hurry played a proxy war into gambling on national luck.
So in the future, we have to make a worse… Or better plan.
That is: the Qin Dynasty lost its deer, and the whole world chased it.
Who can successfully activate the production and supply first and maintain the concentration of monetary policy, will be able to get a huge opportunity in the future competition.
So at present, as the only country in the world that maintains a smooth and comprehensive industrial chain, and as Russia’s comprehensive strategic partner, China’s status has actually become more important than we thought.
How to open the trade channel and accept how much inflation?
How to maintain the most favorable neutral position in the world crisis?
How to take advantage of this neutrality?
This time, we can neither pay for the United States as we did in 2008, nor resist inflation too conservatively.
We should neither habitually compromise with the west, nor involve ourselves into a full-scale confrontation.
How can we seize this opportunity and make use of the precious advantages brought to China by historical opportunities to maximize interests and lick the firewood for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation?
This requires very, very excellent wisdom!
Unfortunately, I don’t think I have such superb wisdom, so I can’t give an answer.
But in general, I believe that “crisis, crisis” must be an opportunity accompanied by danger.
And we are facing the greatest opportunity in the difficult mud!
At this moment, the advantage lies in me!