Source: Great nerve of watching rain
Consultant: talking about books
The queen of England, who was infected with covid-19 at the beginning of the year, finally failed to reverse the trend of weakness and played GG a few days ago. This is the death of another important international political figure following Shinzo Abe and Gorbachev this year. Incidentally, Gorbachev also had a sunny day at the end of last year. Of course, not all senior citizens who have passed the sun will die, right?
For Britain, the ascension of the queen is certainly a big event. However, we all know that although Elizabeth is one of the most famous political figures in the world, as a virtual monarch who “rules but does not rule”, her death will not have much impact on the existing political pattern, but will only weaken the cohesion of Britain to a certain extent.
What really determines the future destiny of Britain is the new prime minister truss, who was just appointed a few days before the Queen’s death.
So this article mainly talks about the British Prime Minister.
British prime ministers have changed quite frequently in recent years. From Cameron in 2016 to truss now, there have been four prime ministers in six years, so the number of prime ministers appointed by Queen Elizabeth in her lifetime is finally fixed at 15.
The majority of members of the conservative party can be said to have high hopes for truss, and even frequently compare her with Margaret Thatcher, a famous modern British woman politician. Of course, as a female prime minister in Britain, it is inevitable to be compared with Margaret Thatcher, and truss herself also enjoys such comparison.
Can truss, the “Queen’s last legacy”, live to be a “Thatcher’s reincarnation”?
Iron Lady cosplay
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At present, there are three main parties in Britain: the conservative party, the Labour Party and the Liberal Democratic Party; Of course, there are many other parties, such as the British independence party, the Scottish National Party, and so on.
If divided by position, the conservative party currently in power in Britain belongs to the right, and both the Labour Party and the Liberal Democratic Party belong to the left.
The party to which truss now belongs and all her remarks show that she is a very stubborn “conservative”. However, what is surprising is that when she first made her debut, she actually followed the route of “progressive young women” and was a left-wing female general who was as good as a fake.
At the age of 19, she publicly called for the abolition of the monarchy on television as the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Oxford University.
That is to say, truss was actually an enemy of the conservative party at first, but this is a reasonable situation, because she was born into an intellectual family supporting the left-wing party.
However, just two years after truss publicly called for the abolition of the monarchy, she hopped to the Conservative Party and became a firm supporter of the British royal family
This “sharp turn” was so exaggerated that she didn’t dare to tell her father personally at that time. It was like standing up one day and saying to everyone: sorry, actually I am a Real Madrid fan after supporting Barcelona with my family for more than 20 years.
Truss’s old father learned of his daughter’s “shocking betrayal” through an email sent by a colleague, and the deeply worried old man refused to provide a platform for truss’s political activities from then on.
As outsiders, it is difficult for us to understand what chutlas has gone through in these two years. Anyway, her choice is to miss the era of glory of the left-wing party perfectly. Because just one year after truss joined the conservative party, the left-wing Labor Party in Britain began their 13 year ruling career.
The Labour Party won the general election in 1997:
Of course, as a fledgling young man, whether her party is in power or not has little to do with her. Truss himself did not become a member of Parliament until 2010, which was included in the political game; It was also in this year that the Conservative Party made a comeback and recaptured the British ruling power.
So objectively speaking, truss’s operation completed a bottom reading of the conservative party. When the party was at a low ebb, he “bought”. After accompanying the party through the low ebb and obtaining the bonus of seniority, the Party hit the bottom again.
However, it was later discovered that jumping repeatedly on the issue of stance was in fact a routine operation of truss. Even after joining the conservative party, her “jumping career” did not stop.
For example, she took a clear-cut stand against “brexit” in 2016, and then resolutely defended “brexit” in 2017; In 2018, he denounced the Saudi government for the murder of Saudi journalist kashuji, and then in 2022, he said that he should cooperate with Saudi Arabia.
Tesla has no psychological burden on changing its stance, and it is not certain that it will give everyone a “surprise” one day. However, according to the Conservative Party’s “aesthetic standards”, this style of unscrupulous means to achieve an end is quite charming. In addition, the loyalty shown by truss when Boris was “in trouble” also gave her a lot of points in the party. These factors pushed her to the center of the party’s card game.
Eight key members of the Conservative Party:
However, what really enabled truss to gain huge support among ordinary members of the conservative party was one thing she had always insisted on doing:
Make every effort to create the “Thatcher 2.0” character.
As a historical celebrity of the conservative party, Margaret Thatcher’s reputation needs no saying. The first female Prime Minister of Britain is the last politician with global influence in Britain. She can invigorate the economy with literature and set the ocean with martial arts; One word at home is the glory of the foreign empire. So conservative supporters dream of seeing Thatcher return to earth.
And all of this, truss meets you.
Truss’s method is “her seniority is not good enough”. She reveals the message that “my mother is Thatcher No. 2” to the public in her words, deeds and clothes.
This game is deliberate, but it does work. The ardent expectations of the Conservatives for Margaret Thatcher made truss, who was far less qualified than his opponent (sunak, the former Indian Chancellor of the exchequer), win the election and take over the Conservative Party’s scepter.
It is worth mentioning that the first few rounds of voting of the conservative party were restricted to parliamentarians, and sunak’s votes were far ahead at this stage; Truss didn’t realize the counterattack until the final round of voting in which all Party members participated. This shows that the elite actually prefer sunak.
So why do conservatives look forward to a new Thatcher? In addition to Margaret Thatcher’s strong ability and unique charm, the most important thing is her great achievements in British history.
Before Margaret Thatcher came to power, Britain was already in the mire of economic stagnation in the 1970s. At that time, Britain’s economic vitality was low, inflation was high, fiscal revenue was tight, and the Treasury was increasingly empty. People who were confused did not know where to go. The sky of the Empire was filled with the smell of pills.
Public services were forced to shut down under the economic crisis:
After Thatcher came to power, the British economy gradually recovered its vitality and the national treasury began to fill up. They even conquered Argentina for thousands of miles, and used force to save the colony of Falkland Islands, declaring to the world that Britain is still a giant that can not be ignored.
I think back to that time and that moment, just like this moment. Today, Britain has laid off three prime ministers in six years. Wen Jiabao can not calm inflation, nor can he fly an aircraft carrier. He is a loose sand at home and is buzzing abroad. Under such circumstances, who does not expect a Thatcher?
But can you dress like Thatcher and work like Thatcher?
It’s no use specifying.
Some friends may have some questions when they see this: do you look down on this British elder sister too much? What if she is really gifted and has the same ability as Thatcher?
In fact, whether truss can copy Margaret Thatcher’s achievements has nothing to do with her personal ability. No matter whether her ability is high or low, she can’t do it. In fact, as far as the current situation in Britain is concerned, it is not possible to imitate Thatcher, even if Thatcher himself comes.
Why is this?
This is mainly because those tricks used by Mrs. Thatcher in those years can only be used once. After she runs out, the people behind her will not be able to use them. No matter how Cosplay you use it.
So what was Thatcher’s trick to save Britain?
The truth of the Messiah
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As mentioned above, before Margaret Thatcher came to power, the British economy was already struggling. This dilemma is mainly reflected in three aspects:
A large number of state-owned enterprises are inefficient;
The pressure of government public expenditure is huge;
Inflation is appalling.
Margaret Thatcher came to power in1979, and the inflation rate of Britain once surged to a historical peak of 25% in 1975 when the labor party was in power. I don’t know, I thought it was Türkiye.
If you were Thatcher, what would you do in the face of this mess?
In history, people have made a lot of exaggerations about Mrs. Thatcher’s work, but if we put aside these embellished propaganda, we will find that what Mrs. Thatcher did was actually very simple. There are mainly two things:
State owned enterprises sold
Public utilities cut
OVER
This can no longer be called “treating the head with a headache and treating the feet with a pain”. It is simply “cutting off the head with a headache and cutting off the feet with a pain”. So is this strategy effective? Quite effective! If you think about it, it will not hurt naturally.
Before the Thatcher era, the proportion of the state-owned economy in the UK was quite high. Not only the industries related to the economic lifeline, such as telecommunications, energy, transportation, water supply and so on, were in the hands of the state, but also many ordinary enterprises dominated by manufacturing also had state shares.
As a result, Thatcher, with a big hand, sold everything in one pot, even the shares of public rental housing. Later, she also shouted the slogan of “privatization without forbidden areas”, which basically belongs to the pioneer of “Gorbachev’s cause”.
With the disappearance of state-owned enterprises, the problem of low efficiency of state-owned enterprises will naturally disappear; When money is received from the sale of state-owned assets, the State Treasury’s purse naturally swells. In Chinese words, this is called “the son sells yetian’s heart does not hurt”. Of course, this operation can only be done once. Even if truss dresses like Thatcher, she has nothing to sell.
But if you think Thatcher’s operation will end here, you are too young. Shares privatized into the hands of big men must go somewhere, right?
In 1986, Thatcher led the reform of London’s financial industry, which triggered the “financial explosion”. The core of this reform is to reduce financial supervision. As a result of the reform, a large number of foreign consortia are allowed to buy British listed enterprises. Where do these “foreign consortia” mainly come from? Of course, it is the United States.
Of course, speaking of this, everything seems acceptable: foreign consortia have obtained shares, the British government has obtained funds, financiers have become hot cakes, the British economy has gained vitality, win win win?
Um… Is there something else missing?
Yes, there is something missing:
In 1985, the number of unemployed people in Britain soared to 2 times that before Thatcher’s era, reaching 3.25 million. At that time, the total population of Britain was only 50 million. At this stage, a large number of workers in traditional industries were laid off, and then they never found a job, and had to live on relief for the rest of their lives.
In the face of workers’ dissatisfaction, the iron lady’s solution was to send troops to suppress them. For example, in 1984, a classic war broke out in the British ogliffe coking plant. Thatcher’s iron cavalry army led 3000 elite troops to defeat 6000 laid-off workers from coal mines, which is known as the “ogliffe victory”.
Battle highlights:
After workers are thrown onto the street, enterprises will no longer have to bear high labor costs, and inflation will naturally come down. It’s just that the proportion of fiscal expenditure in GDP has never been lower, because there are too many people who need relief.
The social effect of “financial explosion” + “workers’ unemployment” is “elite comprador” + “bottom rascal”. During Margaret Thatcher’s administration, the overall crime rate in Britain increased by more than 30%, and the number of theft cases per 10000 people increased by more than 50%.
Finally, from the perspective of national development, Thatcher’s combination also directly determines the future development direction of Britain: the hollowing out of industry.
This is not difficult to understand. If all industries are sold, they will naturally become hollow. As the leader of the industrial revolution, Britain’s manufacturing added value now accounts for only 8% of GDP, and a large number of famous manufacturing enterprises have become the prey of consortia from other countries. Not only do they often leak water when they build an aircraft carrier, but even the propeller transmission shaft can break down.
The track of the “Prince of Wales” aircraft carrier, which was forced to return for overhaul just after leaving home:
Of course, Thatcher was faced with a mess in those years, and she really needed to do something to save Britain. But the world is complex, and many problems are not black or white. If there is a problem with the previous model, it does not mean that the change you make must be right.
For example, when Mrs. Thatcher came to power, Britain had just joined the European Union for a few years. She could fully consider carrying out appropriate reforms by relying on the European market and giving the manufacturing industry another chance, rather than selling all her possessions at once.
However, we have to admit that the strategy of “big sale” is not only easy to implement, but also quick to get money. It has only one disadvantage: it is irreversible. This is because Britain in Thatcher’s era was no longer the world’s hegemon. Once something was abandoned, it would be swallowed up by other powers and would never come back.
So at that time, Britain faced two major directions:
“Rescue again”
“Give up treatment”
To be or not to be?
Margaret Thatcher chose the latter. As a result, her successors will never have the chance to overturn. All they can do is change their posture to accept a doomed outcome.
The prospect of the new prime minister
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Chinese viewers will not be too unfamiliar with truss, the new British Prime Minister, because she was the foreign secretary before and often appeared in international news. In addition, she has repeatedly made extreme remarks on China in public, so it is not difficult to leave a deep impression on everyone.
However, we actually don’t need to pay too much attention to truss’s remarks, because as a cosplayer of Margaret Thatcher, “being tough with opponents” is one of the subjects she must perform. Considering her lack of integrity in changing her political stance, what she said was almost like farting.
“Say the toughest thing and throw the biggest opportunity” will probably become a true portrayal of her prime minister career.
In addition, compared with her idol Margaret Thatcher, truss has a huge disadvantage in addition to nothing to sell: the international situation is different from the past.
One important reason why Margaret Thatcher was able to suppress inflation in those years was that the international situation was favorable at that time, in addition to spending domestic workers and reducing labor costs.
Britain joined the European Union in 1973. Although inflation soared due to the soaring oil price caused by the Middle East War, the British soon tasted the dividend of integrating into a large market.
Integration into the European market has brought Britain lower international transaction costs, so Britain’s inflation level has entered the downward channel before Margaret Thatcher took office. In 1981, the United States decided to increase oil supply, which significantly lowered the international oil price, and the inflation problem in Britain was completely solved.
What truss is facing now is “brexit” + “soaring energy prices”. Her method is to prepare to print money… This basically belongs to “reverse Thatcher”, and she can’t see any way to suppress inflation.
Since there is no chance to reproduce Thatcher in terms of merit, is it possible to show Thatcher’s iron fisted style of “although there are thousands of people, I will go”?
In fact, even this is very difficult for truss to achieve, because an important reason why Margaret Thatcher was able to carry out her own policies against great resistance was that she had military merits in the Falklands war.
In 1982, Argentine President gutieri attacked and occupied Falklands, which is not only the territory claimed by Argentina, but also the colony actually controlled by Britain. Galtieri dared to challenge Britain, not because he had much confidence in his own strength, but because he was sure that the British would not come all the way to fight for this small place where birds do not shit.
However, galtieri never thought that although Britain gave up a large number of colonies after the war, and even was forced to return the sovereignty of the Suez Canal to Egypt, it took the Falklands issue seriously. Margaret Thatcher squeezed out the last strength of the Empire and went on an expedition to South America.
British troops on the March:
Britain’s response was not unexpected. At that time, Britain was in a difficult economic situation, and Thatcher urgently needed the support of the people. If she accepts this matter, she will immediately get out of Downing Street, and then all reforms will not happen afterwards.
However, from another perspective, Argentina can also be regarded as a “soft persimmon sent by God to Britain”. Mrs. Thatcher just seized the opportunity to blow up the dizzy calcutti and establish great prestige in China. From then on, no power can stop the “Iron Lady”.
And truss will not have such an opportunity. She has no military merit to brush, so she can only create a tough image by attacking other countries with her mouth.
However, now that she has officially started her job as prime minister, she will be faced with a series of practical problems that can not be solved by mouth:
The trend of independence of Scotland and Northern Ireland accelerated by the death of the queen;
Energy crisis;
Inflation crisis;
Financial constraints;
The medical system continues to be under pressure;
……
It can be said that the problems that Britain needs to face at present are no less than those in the Thatcher era, but now they only have one Thatcher cosplayer, so there is no hope of solving any of the above problems. Truss will be doomed to a difficult tenure as prime minister.
Appendix:
British electoral system
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The British election is not quite the same as the US election rules that we are familiar with. The US election ultimately elects the president, while the British election elects members of Parliament. The term of office of a member is generally five years.
This Parliament mainly refers to the house of Commons.
There are 650 constituencies in the UK. During the general election, each constituency will elect a member, and the total number of members in the house of Commons is 650. Since these members are elected, it is natural that they are more random as to which political parties they come from.
After these 650 members are elected, we will count the number of people belonging to various parties. If there is a party with more than half of the number, the party will form the next government, and the leader of the party will automatically become the prime minister. If the party leader resigns midway, it will not affect the party’s governance, as long as the Party elects another party leader to continue to work.
For example, when Theresa May resigned, she was still in the conservative party, so Boris, the leader of the new party, continued to be prime minister. Then in the 2019 general election, 365 of the 650 members elected by the house of Commons came from the conservative party, so the conservative party continued to govern, and Boris naturally continued to sit as prime minister.
If no party has more than half of its members, then two or more parties with a majority of seats can form a coalition government, and the leader of the party with the largest number of members will be the prime minister. However, the coalition government will have to talk about it. If we can’t reach an agreement, we can’t rule out the possibility of re-election.
It is worth mentioning here that Britain actually has a house of Lords. The word “house of lords” sounds very tall, and the number of members in it is quite large, more than 700, more than the number of members in the house of Commons. So why is the sense of existence of the “house of lords” very low in the whole British election campaign?
In fact, the house of Lords not only has a low sense of existence in British election activities, but also has a low sense of existence in British politics as a whole.
Members of the house of Lords are not elected, but are canonized by the king. Once canonized, it is a lifetime system.
Members who can be canonized by the king are naturally not ordinary people. Apart from a few clergy members, the majority of secular members are basically nobles. The house of Lords, as its name suggests, is indeed tall. But after a long-term reform in history, the power of the house of Lords has become smaller and smaller, and has basically been elevated. These 700 odd people are now like a mascot like the queen.
The house of Lords, much more upmarket than the house of Commons:
So what is the procedure for truss to become prime minister this time?
The change of prime minister this time is very similar to that when Boris took over Theresa May, except that it was Boris who resigned. As mentioned above, since he is still in the term of office of the conservative party, Boris’s departure does not affect the Conservative Party’s governance in Britain. They can elect a new leader.
Therefore, truss’s participation in the election this time is a conservative party election. After defeating her opponents in the party, she became the leader of the party, and then took over the post of Prime Minister of Boris.
THE END