Broken wings!

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Author: Sheng Tang rushong source: wechat official account: the Dao of the big shopkeeper has been reprinted with authorization

There has always been an inference in the market: if Russia is cleaned up by Europe and the United States, then their next target must be China.

Is this inference reliable? In fact, it doesn’t matter whether it is reliable or not. This is an inevitable development of common sense. Basically, there is no need to judge whether this inference is reasonable. It must be the way things go. Because we can see from Trump’s trade war and the Biden administration’s repeated stimulus actions against China that even if Russia has not fallen, and there is no sign of falling, the United States can not help but take action against China. However, for the same reason as Russia, it does not dare to start directly. Instead, it hopes to copy and paste the Russia Ukraine crisis into East Asia. Unfortunately, there is no country in East Asia that can act as the agent of the United States like Ukraine.

But this inference is also problematic, that is, will Russia be cleaned up? It exists in theory, but it is very difficult in reality. I said this yesterday. As a country with a relatively single ethnic group, Russia’s cohesion is still good. The current leading group is not made of paper, not only paper, but also steel. Therefore, it is only with its own strength that Russia can strike hard with the joint efforts of 20 or 30 countries in Europe and the United States.

Therefore, it is still very unrealistic to step on Russia’s fallen body to fight China. Although the thinking of the United States and Europe may be like this. However, at present, Russia is still very rigid, while Europe, the wing of the United States, may not be able to hold up.

Eight days ago, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar again fell below 1:1. The trend of weak euro has basically been finalized, although the US dollar is not living well at present. But it is hard for the euro to turn around again.

A brief review of the history of the euro shows that the euro was finally launched in 1999, thanks to the efforts of French President Chirac [1995-2007] and German Chancellor Kohl [1982-1998]. However, just a few days after the introduction of the euro, the Kosovo war broke out [this is also a means of the United States to attack the strong euro], which has greatly affected the overall security environment in Europe. As a result, the euro, which was originally a strong currency, instantly fell below the issuing exchange rate and became a weaker currency than the US dollar. Finally, after several years of hard work, the situation was finally stabilized, which ensured that the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar has always maintained a dominant position in the following years.

This has created a situation in which although the euro maintains the advantage over the US dollar in exchange rate, it does not have the super currency status of the US dollar. The result of this situation is that the US dollar exists as the largest Reaper of international trade and international finance, while the euro follows the US dollar to reap some marginal land. This may also be regarded as a profit sharing mode formed after the initial running in between the euro and the US dollar. This is also the status quo of Europe and the United States on this world planet.

The United States and Europe not only control the entire world’s industrial chain in terms of industry, but also in terms of currency and finance. In fact, this is also an all-round control mode formed by the United States and Europe over the world after the cold war. Although it is not complete, it is almost the same. It is precisely because it is not complete that their mode of division will be cracked by other countries. I won’t tell you how to crack it. In fact, we all know that otherwise, they would not target China now.

Europe is not only the root of the United States, but also the wings of the United States. However, the former European colonists have taken deep roots in the Americas. They can survive without Europe. Although the quality of life can not be guaranteed, there is no problem living on this land. However, if Europe is lost, it will be impossible for the United States to become a strong country. Therefore, we can simply guess that when the United States wants to break Russia’s flying wing, is it not taking its own wing — that is, Europe?

At present, the continuation of the Russian Ukrainian war is predictable. Zelensky said a few days ago that the war will not stop, and there is no possibility of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. If this goes on, the next days in Europe can also be imagined. Europe without energy in summer can still resist the past. What about winter? Nowadays, high energy prices are not the most important thing, but in winter, Europe is very likely to fall into the embarrassing situation of being unable to buy energy with money. Russia is not a good person who is open to money. With the break of the euro exchange rate, the cost of purchasing energy from Europe will increase greatly. The euro, which has been riding by the US dollar, is very likely to avalanche due to multiple negative factors in Europe.

Yesterday, on the 29th, German Chancellor Scholz visited the Czech Republic. On the 26th, justice minister brazek of the Czech Republic told the Czech parliament that if the current energy crisis is not resolved, the EU political system, including the Czech Republic, may undergo a revolution. I don’t know if Scholz went to the Czech Republic because of brazek’s remarks, but he did go to discuss with Czech Prime Minister Fiala how to solve the energy crisis. Like Germany, the Czech Republic is a country that relies on Russian natural gas. If the energy crisis cannot be solved this winter, some countries in the EU will certainly abandon the unified position of the EU and negotiate with Russia alone, just like Hungary [EU Member States] and Serbia [non EU Member States]. After all, living is the most real need.

Brazek’s so-called revolution in the EU political system actually reflects an important dilemma facing the EU at present: if those countries that are extremely short of energy for the winter can not solve the crisis for the people, the people will kill them. In order to prevent this from happening, they must first threaten to kill the EU.

Can Scholz solve this crisis? I’m afraid not. Let’s take a look. Chirac of France, the two big men who built the euro zone, was in power for 12 years, which can be said to be the anchor of Europe at that time. Kohl of Germany has been in power for 16 years. The 16 year history of German governance makes it easy for us to remember that Chancellor Merkel, who has just retired, has been in power for 16 years. Merkel once had a nickname called “Kohl’s little girl”. In other words, Merkel was actually promoted by Kohl. Two people with the same governing philosophy and skills managed Germany for one third of the post-war period. It can be said that Germany has been able to live up to this day, and they have contributed a lot.

Under the impetuous popular election mode in the west, Kohl and Chirac have been in power for such a long time, and finally created the euro zone, providing a more cohesive weapon for the EU. But can Europe still see such politicians today? Schultz of Germany was born malnourished and belonged to a multi-party coalition government. In particular, he allowed the green party to be his own foreign minister. However, macron of France, after being slapped by the boss of the United States, Britain and Australia, could bear the pain to say that the United States and France are close to each other. How can you expect EU leaders like this to pull back from the crisis? Europe’s future is at stake.

At this point, what we should be prepared for is to prepare for the disintegration of the EU. Although the United States may eventually become the biggest beneficiary of this disintegration, the luxuriant feathers it has harvested are not as good as the beneficial wings of its predecessor. But for us, picking up a few beautiful feathers is much better than facing a flickering wing.

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