Original: Gu Ziming this article is authorized to be reproduced to wechat official account: political affairs hall plus2019
On July 12 this year, Buffett, the God of stocks, transferred 225 million shares of BYD to Citibank. At that time, analysts believed that this might be a false alarm.
As a result, as soon as the stock was transferred to be traded on the secondary trading market, Buffett started to flee northward.
First, the announcement was made on August 30, and the shareholding ratio decreased from 20.49% to 19.92%. Today, the announcement is continued, from 19.02% to 18.87%. Like naspers, it has started the smashing and selling of stocks without paying attention to morality.
At this rate, every 2-3 days or so, the stock god will issue a round point reduction announcement, and then the mainstream media will keep repeating it. Don’t over interpret it.
Fortunately, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has closed the loophole of Buffett’s usual ordinary mail. If Buffett still plays with PetroChina in 2007, he will reduce his holdings on July 12. On July 25, the Hong Kong stock exchange received an email and announced it on the 27th. It is estimated that this time, Lao Ba will have a chance to run away 30% of BYD’s shares before the market finds out.
In my opinion, don’t just look at the value investment that Buffett talks about every day. In 2020, PetroChina, which asked you how worried you could be, fell from its historical peak to more than one piece. Buffett unexpectedly made no waves. Instead, he kept buying American oil companies whose “value” was not as good as PetroChina, and prepared to become the largest shareholder.
The so-called value investment is only Buffett’s basic skill. The God of stocks is powerful in his understanding of the world economic system, but these “know how” things will not be written in books.
For example, the PetroChina invested by Buffett is a Sino American Joint “salt and iron tax” company.
With China’s entry into the WTO in 2001, the United States began its capitalist transformation of China.
In this process, on the one hand, China has progressed toward urban industrialization structurally, transforming from an oil exporter to an oil importer, and on the other hand, it has shifted to the “oil salt and iron tax” in terms of tax revenue, gradually eliminating all kinds of exorbitant taxes.
China, which relies on oil for tax revenue, has become more and more dependent on the United States. 1.3 billion Chinese people have been included in the petrodollar system. The close relationship between the two countries also made many Americans think that “China and the United States” were practicing “one country, two systems”.
Similarly, BYD, invested by Buffett, is also the representative of the “salt and iron tax” of China US joint venture.
In 2007, for the post petrodollar era, the United States operated the concept of carbon neutrality to levy a US dollar carbon tax on the world. China, a close comrade in arms, was naturally drawn into the carbon neutrality system.
Then, China launched a vigorous energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection plan. From photovoltaic, wind power to electric vehicles, China, as a developing country, resolutely rushed to carbon neutrality, became a production base of new energy with its strong manufacturing capacity, and also became an important part of the “carbon tax dollar”.
Buffett, who has never shorted his motherland, has always kept pace with the national strategy of the United States in his overseas investment strategy.
He invested in PetroChina because the United States was transforming China with petrodollars, not only transferring technology, but also selling oil fields laid down in the Iraq war to China. He also invested in BYD because the United States was transforming China with a carbon tax in dollars at that time, and was willing to open the Chinese market and transfer technology in the field of new energy.
In essence, Buffett helped the Chinese government to build a tax platform in line with the United States through initial investment, and then returned the platform to China at a higher price.
We have not only completed our political tasks, but also packed our waists.
Compared with son Zhengyi, who also built a lot of tax platforms but didn’t know to “stop”, the God of stocks can stand for more than half a century, which naturally has its own uniqueness.
Now, the momentum of BYD’s galloping has shown the great momentum of PetroChina in those years. The huge inertia will drive China to sing all the way in the field of new energy. Buffett’s political task has been completed.
With the global geopolitical tear brought about by the Russian Ukrainian war and the expectation that the Russian Ukrainian conflict will not end in the next few years, Europe has collectively abandoned carbon neutrality, China and the United States have also interrupted climate talks, the expectation of a US dollar carbon tax has been interrupted, and the once abandoned petrodollars will return again.
Therefore, I predict that Buffett, who follows US policy investment, will not stop his reduction of holdings, and will gradually clear his BYD stock, just like clearing PetroChina in those years, and will never come back.