Author: Kafka is very busy Source: Outlander’s Perspective (ID: hooyar_380097485)
Last Friday, there was a retaliatory surge in the real estate related industry, and I mentioned earlier that we should try to avoid real estate related tickets as much as possible.
Small essay rescues the market through various twists and turns, of course, this is China’s method since ancient times: the market spreads a certain voice, is interpreted as public opinion by various means, and then forces policies to be introduced.
Just like some internet celebrity economists, like animals in the rainy season prairie, they are stimulated by certain substances and hormones, throwing away their hair water and cowhide ointments and investing in the real estate rescue activities that concern the country and the people.
If China, like the United States, relies on vested interest groups as financiers to sustain it, and real estate has long been stimulated to go to the moon, why is real estate not viable? Due to the stripping of financial attributes and the return of buying a house to living itself, residents’ income has not generally increased, so consumption in the area of living cannot burst into a second spring.
Unless the wave of price increases and panic buying that began in 2015 is repeated, real estate sales will continue to be sluggish.
But was the international situation so tense in 2015? Have we encountered comprehensive suppression from the United States and the West like this? Is the general leverage of residents as high as it is now?
At this point, encourage consumption, but tell me, does a person who is heavily in debt and constantly worried about external crises that may cause them to lose their job opportunities dare to consume?
Looking at social media, in 2015, various consumerist displays of wealth were the most attractive to young people. By 2023, various search guides have repeatedly become popular.
Why are everyone saving money crazily? Because I feel the high pressure brought by high debt and high leverage.
What do you think would happen if there were another real estate promotion with higher prices at this time?
Even if you play this game, you are likely to fail because your mentality is different and everyone has changed. No matter how high your leverage is and how easy it is to borrow money from the bank, I won’t borrow it. It’s simple, all borrowed money needs to be repaid. May I ask, what can I use to repay it? Do I have confidence to return it?
Why are there so many second-hand plates?
Because the scarcity of houses is a pseudo concept, with only local scarcity and no national scarcity.
In 2022, Shenzhen experienced negative population growth for the first time. In 2023, I also left Shenzhen because one day I suddenly realized that I don’t even need to work. Why do I still stay in Shenzhen to bear the high consumption and anxiety caused by high housing prices?
If only for the sake of climate and urban support, after decades of large-scale infrastructure construction, China’s third and fourth tier cities are generally well built. Our vast territory has many choices. Since Hegang became a popular city on the internet due to low housing prices, driven by a group of outsiders who cannot afford high local housing prices, the economy and finance have started to rebound, with GDP growth skyrocketing by 8.5% in the first quarter, becoming the number one city in Heilongjiang.
So will low housing prices really hinder economic development? I think it’s exactly the opposite.
Before 2015, young people worked hard and struggled in Shenzhen, but it was still easy for them to buy a house and settle down. After 2018, for those who come back, if they don’t become a wealthy industry and only rely on work, even if it’s an annual salary of hundreds of thousands, and only rely on their own primitive accumulation, then you won’t even think about it.
A fan who works at a certain research institution asked me, ‘In this lifetime, my salary will never be able to afford a house, so what is the meaning of working hard?’?
Is it serving as fuel for those well-established stakeholders in the real estate interest chain with good fortune?
More and more people are thinking this way, so now let’s not talk about having a second child. They don’t even want to have their first child, and even if they are a little discouraged, they won’t even get married, so dating can be saved.
Why is there so much hype about male female opposition on the internet? Of course, there are merchants who deceive little fairies and play consumerism behind the scenes, fueling the flames. Can men who are forced to be unqualified to get married and cannot even afford to fall in love now not be full of resentment?
I saw a paragraph that day that made me very sad. Someone said, ‘When a bird is born, there is still a tree branch where it can settle. I want to find a place to settle, why is it so difficult?’.
High housing prices have destroyed a generation and the birth rate.
A few years ago, we were still laughing at Japan’s low desire society and the trend of having fewer children. Unexpectedly, in a blink of an eye, our fertility rate was lower than that of Japan, and there were no fewer young people from the Buddhist family who lay flat than the Japanese. I have watched many young people on the internet who came home from the workplace to chew on their elders, who are nicknamed full-time sons and full-time daughters.
Okay, taking ten thousand steps back has reduced the down payment and loan interest rate, but there is still a heavy burden of 30 years between high housing prices and income. Can a young person still be a young person under such pressure?
Some people argue that young people can avoid buying houses, and saving real estate is for those with the ability to buy.
Hehe, to raise housing prices, you need to take over the bidding. Who will take over the bidding? Isn’t it the last one to pick up the first one? Isn’t it difficult for young people to take over the job? Do you expect 70, 80, old men and women to rely on retirement wages to take over the job?
Since you place your hope on them, the pressure will come early. As for what excess capacity in the real estate industry chain has been saved, but I ask you, with the current fertility rate, this wave of people are being trapped again. Will the same problem still occur in a few years? Will the holes in the real estate become even larger by then? So who else can you find to help?
The reality is so cruel, even if more radical measures are introduced, it may not be able to save the real estate for long, but it is very likely to make the problem worse.
In Xu Daidai’s entrepreneurial history, he encountered several crises and was rescued by wealthy individuals or policies. In the end, he successfully turned his small debt into two trillion yuan, and the more he saved, the worse.
But this chain of interests is too strong and ruthless, isn’t there a saying in the market? All the holders want the stock to rise, and then they are willing to sell short. All the holders want the stock to fall, and then they can find an opportunity to buy long.
The current problem is that there are not enough long positions and too many short positions in the market. What should we do? Run foolishly and pull it up? Liberate all bears and trap yourself in?
Not as foolish as the main force!
The best way is to move sideways and slowly grind it down, allowing time to change everything. As time passes, the company gradually improves and its value highlights. The previously expensive stock price becomes less eye-catching, and if you pull it up again, you will achieve twice the result with half the effort.
Real estate is not something that can be saved by intensive policies. Time can only be used to exchange space. Once the general income of the people has increased and the development prospects are promising, there is no need for you to offer any big benefits. Those who can afford a house will take the initiative to buy it.
Interestingly, after Evergrande went wrong in 2021, the United States and the West have called on us to save the real estate. Even US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has publicly said that this essay was spread from Bloomberg.
Hehe, guess who from outside would most like us to introduce the necessary policies to rescue the market?
It is interesting that US real estate has rebounded since February, with residential properties improving, but commercial real estate is starting to experience a crisis. The US housing market is so good that various states have imposed purchase restrictions on Chinese people, and some states are even strict enough to require those who buy houses to sell them within the specified time, otherwise they will be confiscated.
Where has the promised free market economy gone?
The skyrocketing housing prices have left both the US government and the Federal Reserve unable to sit still, unable to stop interest rate hikes, and unable to stop at all.
The current situation is for both sides to hold their breath in a competition, let’s see who can’t hold their breath and lose first.
The old lady and her little brother have been carrying it until now, thinking day and night that we should quickly open the floodgates and flood our area, so that they can start the financial crisis first and directly cross the ocean to harvest.
This is a time of comparison and concentration. Even if a small essay flies all over the sky, even if it flies a little more, it will not have any substantial effect.
Some people say that Li Bei ran early. Hehe, for a private equity with a capital volume of tens of billions, the news is definitely better than you and me. Why did you suddenly favor real estate? You must have heard too many circles saying they want to save the real estate. According to American thinking, at this time, you will definitely follow the popular sentiment of various small essays, but the result is not.
So they honestly admitted their mistake by cutting the flesh.
There are many people who always think that there will be a turning point when they die. I don’t deny this, but if you can carry through a cycle and win in this financial war, there will definitely be a chance of reversal. But what’s wrong with you having the resilience to do something and insist on pouncing here?
Someone else asked me what the future holds for tax exemption? If we win and the confidence of the people generally increases, who else would be superstitious about foreign goods like a fool? Why Chongyang back then, because they were really advanced and we couldn’t compare, but what if we were more advanced? Would you still spend a lot of money on so-called foreign brand premiums?
For those who cannot think through many things, it is recommended to read Grandpa Mao’s “On Contradictions” carefully. What are the main contradictions and what are the secondary contradictions? First, prioritize them, and then discuss with me whether a small essay is reliable.