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Recently, the US media has frequently aired that Biden will soon decide to cancel the tariffs imposed on US $10billion of daily necessities in the current US $370billion of Chinese goods exported to the United States, and continue to use the “301 clause” to launch new attacks on China’s battery, semiconductor and other industries.
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Moreover, in 2021, China’s exports to the United States increased significantly by 27.5%, and its trade surplus with the United States reached $396.5 billion, much higher than the $323.3 billion before the outbreak of the trade war. The tariff “stick” swung by the United States finally fell on its own consumers
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Although Dai Qi, the U.S. trade representative, insisted that “tariffs on China should not be given up as an important bargaining chip”, he still could not stop the calls from all walks of life in the United States to cancel taxation. More than 300 American manufacturers sent a joint letter to Biden asking for the termination of tariff hikes to protect the competitiveness of enterprises. Summers, an economist and former Treasury Secretary, urged the White House to try to eliminate tariffs to deal with domestic inflation. Finance minister Yellen criticized the trump administration’s tariffs on China for lack of strategic significance. The U.S. economic review report launched by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also recommended the abolition of tariffs on China. The Wall Street Journal editorial said that tariffs on China are like a blunt instrument, which will do more harm to Americans than to China
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A probe into the US economy:
“High fever” of inflation
If the American economy wants to see a doctor, it must first set up a fever clinic. The US consumer price index (CPI) exceeded 8% from March to may 2022, and rose to 9.1% in June, a 41 year high. Treasury Secretary Yellen said frankly that it was “unacceptable”
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However, everyone remembers that when the inflation rate rose rapidly last year, it was the Federal Reserve that advocated the “temporary inflation theory”. When the inflation rate fluctuated at a high level in the first quarter of this year, it was the Federal Reserve that advocated the “peak inflation theory”. The Fed’s understanding of inflation and the speed of policy adjustment are far from keeping up with the development and evolution of inflation itself
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As former US Treasury Secretary Summers said, “the work of the Federal Reserve is like turning the temperature of the shower faucet in an old hotel. All actions have a delay of 20 or 30 seconds. You don’t think the water is hot enough, turn it to the left, no movement, no movement, no movement, and then you shout and jump out of the bath.”
Karl, former president of the Federal Bank of Germany, said, “inflation is like toothpaste. Once it comes out of the tube, it is difficult to take it back.” Can the Federal Reserve really cure the disease of the US economy by vigorously raising interest rates at this time? To answer this question, we must first know why the US economy is “hot”
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has launched a round of bottomless flooding, with its balance sheet expanding from $4.17 trillion to $8.76 trillion in two years, equivalent to an average annual issuance of 44% more money
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Monetary stimulus should have been an emergency measure to reverse the recession, but the Fed has long-term this short-term strategy. The huge pool of various assets failed to fully absorb the additional currency, the flood was flooding but there was no place to release the flood, and prices could only rise
The financial times pointed out that the current inflation in the United States is not only a monetary phenomenon, but also closely related to supply factors. The COVID-19, the Ukrainian crisis, and the trade war of decoupling and chain breaking have disturbed the normal operation of the international supply chain and pushed up prices from the supply side
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The unrestrained release of water by the Federal Reserve once created the so-called “strong recovery” of the U.S. economy. However, only when the tide recedes can we see who is swimming naked. The US economy declined by 1.6% in the first quarter of this year, opening the prelude to economic contraction
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater fund, pointed out that under the assumption of not causing economic weakness, the Federal Reserve will not be able to take any measures to combat inflation. Jamie Dimon, general manager of Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase, predicted that an economic “hurricane” was coming. In the past 15 weeks, the NASDAQ index of US stocks closed down in 12 weeks, and its market value fell by 1/4
In addition, the impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike on a global scale is also huge. The appreciation of the US dollar has led to a large amount of capital flowing into the United States, harvesting leeks from all over the world. A few days ago, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has reached nearly 1:1. I am afraid that the time for us European allies to take a bath this winter will have to be shortened. A warm reminder – don’t wash in the “old fed Hotel”. A perm is a scar
Second, explore the U.S. economy:
Industrial development “abnormal tumor”
The United States has high inflation and economic recession, but a few industries still maintain savage growth, like tumors, which unrestrained erode nutrients from the body of the U.S. economy, feed a few capital, and harm the majority of the people.
The financial industry is a typical example of abnormal development, accounting for more than 20% of the national economy. For a long time, the United States has relied on the dominant position of the dollar as the world’s main trade settlement currency and reserve currency. It can collect seigniorage tax from the world by issuing dollars indiscriminately, and make money by eating potato chips on the sofa
The huge US dollar foreign exchange reserves held by various countries often return to the US market in the form of purchasing US dollar treasury bonds; American capital injected these funds into high return investment projects in emerging economies represented by China to obtain high returns. In this way, Wall Street has occupied a lot of social resources in the United States, and even kidnapped economic policies on the grounds of “too big to fail”, forcing the U.S. government to rescue large enterprises in the financial crisis
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Financial tycoons have constantly lobbied and contributed political contributions, and their agents have become executives and politicians, firmly binding themselves to the U.S. government. The unhealthy development of the financial industry has aggravated the social polarization between the rich and the poor. According to the research of economist piketty, the return on capital in the United States has been higher than the economic growth rate for a long time, which makes social wealth more and more concentrated in a few people. The wealth of the 1% rich in the United States has exceeded the total wealth of the bottom 90% of the population
The medical industry is also a big “tumor”. In 2021, the medical and health expenditure of American society has reached 18% of GDP, while the average value of OECD countries, the major developed economies in the world, is only 8.8%. However, the high medical and health expenditure does not mean that Americans’ health has been better taken care of. On the contrary, the average life expectancy in the United States fell from 78.86 years in 2019 to 76.6 years in 2021, which is lower than that in China. Good and inexpensive medical services can only quench thirst for ordinary Americans
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The military industry has expanded to the limit. The US military budget in 2022 has reached US $770billion, accounting for 40% of the global military expenditure. Of course, the U.S. military is strong, how much taxpayer money is spent on the blade
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The U.S. military has invested $2.26 trillion in Afghanistan for 20 years, and the average daily expenditure of $300million has not escaped the fate of hasty withdrawal. The Pentagon was also exposed to have spent $6million to airlift nine goats from Italy to Afghanistan, ostensibly to support Afghan animal husbandry, but the sky high price lamb was acclimatized and died early
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Under their influence, the Pentagon has constantly issued white papers to exaggerate security threats, and the U.S. government is looking for enemies and provocations around the world under the guise of maintaining “national security” and promoting “democracy and freedom”. In the constantly increasing military expenditure account, behind a series of wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and so on, and under the wild words of “fighting to the last Ukrainian”, the United States military industrial complex has won, but the people of the world have been miserable
Third, explore the American economy:
Economic structure “hemiplegia”
The United States is indeed still an economic giant, but it has become a “clay giant”
The United States once had a strong manufacturing industry, but after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States lay on the credit book and allowed the disorderly expansion of dollar capital around the world, just like a gold collar image of disdaining to wield a hoe, and capital and production were further separated.
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The shrinking manufacturing capacity of the United States and the excessive virtualization of the economic structure damage the internal circulation of the American economy, damage the long-term competitiveness of the American economy, and affect the shelves and baskets of American people. Baby milk powder will never be the last commodity in short supply.
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After exploring the U.S. economy for three times, we found that the U.S. economy has virtual heat inside, swelling outside and shrinking limbs, but it will only blindly raise interest rates, for fear that mingguangzong will eat red pills – too long. As economist Judy Shelton said, if raising interest rates becomes the only thing the Fed can do, the real problem cannot be solved
Some politicians in the United States turn a blind eye to their own problems, but only want to throw the blame and suppress China. But no matter how these politicians throw the pot, the economic law is there. If the Biden administration allows the internal disease to deteriorate while manipulating tariffs to use a knife against China, it will be hit by the economic law and will eventually have to gouge out the meat to get sick. Sadly, it was never the elite politicians who were beaten to the bone.
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It’s time for the White House to figure out whether to pick up the blade or hold the key.