Changes in the Middle East!

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Author: Sheng Tang rushong source wechat official account: the chief shopkeeper’s knife has been reprinted with authorization

Today, Putin visited Iran.

After the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the Middle East once again became the international focus. Without him, the shortage of energy in Europe has forced the United States and European countries to place their hopes of increasing energy production on this land flowing with black gold.

Therefore, Biden paid a serious visit to Saudi Arabia, Israel and other countries a few days ago. But the effect is said to be poor. On the one hand, Biden was accused by the U.S. domestic media of bowing down for five bushels of rice [wanting Saudi Arabia to increase crude oil production], on the other hand, Biden was accused by the Saudis of being very impolite, [when he arrived at the door, he accused the crown prince of being responsible for kasuji’s death]. Biden can be said to be thankless at both ends, and neither inside nor outside.

Biden made such a contradictory thing, obviously it is not his old muddle headed habit that he committed again. Everything should be arranged before the trip. For such a person who doesn’t even know whether to step on his left foot or his right foot after getting off the plane, most things have to be arranged in advance before they can be completed. Such as the fist touch with Salman Jr. Another example is the human rights accusation against Salman Jr. Biden can only be thankless on both sides, because he must be thankless on both sides.

These are two completely contradictory things. Touching hands means that the United States and Saudi Arabia are close allies, but blaming human rights will definitely make their allies unhappy. Moreover, the incident of kasuji caused so much trouble that Salman almost fell over it. Biden put forward this matter face to face at this time, which is undoubtedly to sprinkle salt on the crown prince’s wound. Therefore, the crown prince responded impolitely, “first of all, I don’t think I should bear personal responsibility for kashuji. Secondly, do you Americans do little in assassination? Not long ago, a journalist was shot dead in Israel, why don’t you ask the Israeli government what responsibility it should take for this matter?” In a word, Biden was speechless. Naturally, his team certainly didn’t expect the crown prince to dare to slap in the face in public, so it’s estimated that Biden didn’t teach him how to deal with this refutation.

Saudi Arabia’s attitude towards the United States has been very illustrative, that is, today’s countries in the Middle East are no longer in respect of the United States, but are no longer so afraid of its majesty. Biden’s abandonment of the Afghan government in particular has really chilled the necks of many Middle Eastern countries. Since the United States can throw away the puppet government of Afghanistan like a rag, how can it expect the United States to love them as well as itself if great changes happen in the Middle East in the future? This is obviously impossible. So, at least, they have to consider another future for themselves. Even stepping on two boats is a little better than holding the United States on one leg. And this other ship is undoubtedly Russia [in terms of security]. At its worst, we can also play a tactical balance between the United States and Russia.

Biden’s visit to the Middle East was not a success, which is a visible fact. What will be the result of Putin’s coming to the camera today? Let’s not talk about this for the time being. Let’s see what Europe is doing.

In fact, the region where the Russian Ukrainian war really led to a great lack of energy is Europe. It is supposed that European countries should be more active in the Middle East, but the fact is that European lobbying in the Middle East has not achieved much. Recently, Germany and France seem to interact more with the United Arab Emirates. Yesterday, macron also met with President Mohammed of the United Arab Emirates at the Elysee Palace. German Chancellor Scholz also spoke with Mohammed on the phone two days ago. It seems that the German president also met with Egyptian President Sisi yesterday. [it shows that the current purpose of Europe for the Middle East and North Africa is security. Not just for energy] but the UAE family has to talk to Saudi Arabia about energy. Even if the United Arab Emirates has given Europe some energy [in fact, it is very difficult. In terms of production capacity, the United Arab Emirates has arranged very full supply security for Asia.] Without the consent of Saudi Arabia, the OPEC boss, it will be a drop in the bucket. Saudi Arabia obviously did not give Biden this face. Saudi Arabia’s official response said that “Saudi Arabia will decide whether to increase production according to the market demand of the world’s energy, and at present, Saudi Arabia has not seen such demand.” that is to say, even if Saudi Arabia wants to increase production, it will also decide according to the market, not Biden.

Is there any demand in the market? Of course, because European countries are now waiting for energy to enter with their necks up. However, in Saudi Arabia’s view, this is not market demand, because the existing supply in Russia can fully guarantee the energy demand of Europe. The fundamental reason for the lack of energy in Europe is not market demand, but political needs. Since it is political rather than market, OPEC naturally needs to observe whether there is a political solution to the European energy crisis. This is just like what Saudi Arabia did during the Middle East war. They are well aware that political energy shortages cannot be solved by market behavior. Moreover, we cannot do so. If we do so, the oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia will ultimately suffer.

Therefore, Putin’s visit to Iran has become a way to politically solve the world energy crisis and even the world food crisis. Saudi Arabia and Iran have come close recently, and even discussed the possibility of a smile between the two sides.

At present, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Argentina, Iran, Egypt and other five countries are preparing to join the BRICs organization, according to Russia’s “Izvestia”. The BRICs countries are not military security organizations, but purely economic cooperation organizations. As I said before, the international situation has changed greatly, and Europe is increasingly mired under the influence of the Russian Ukrainian war. This is actually a good time for some powerful countries in the third world to rise. And this rise alone is difficult to achieve its goal. We must rely on an external force, a collective force to do it. The BRICs organization is obviously one of many external platforms, even the best one. Because there are Russia, which is not afraid of the power of the United States and Europe, China, which surpasses the American industrial system, China and India, which have a large population with broad market potential, Brazil, which is a resource-based country, and South Africa, which is a regional country. Although there are many shortcomings, especially now the BRICs quality of all countries is fading [except China], looking at the world, in addition to Europe and the United States, which do not bring their own equal play, the BRICs organization platform is undoubtedly the only choice for slightly powerful countries in other third world countries. Such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey…. [in fact, the gold content of Argentina, Iran and Egypt is still much lower, not even copper bricks, but Iran’s development potential is still good.]

If Saudi Arabia chooses to join the BRICs organization, it doesn’t mean that it is just a BRIC [everyone knows how good it is]. It means that there has been a great change in the selection of sides in international politics in the Middle East. This is also the reason why Biden came to Saudi Arabia licking his face without being given a good face by the crown prince: the influence of the United States on the world has declined too fast. From the denial of six relatives in Trump’s time to the treachery in Biden’s time. Countries that can be little brothers to the United States, in addition to clinging to the United States’ thighs because of their own interests [such as Japan, South Korea and some European countries]. Those countries that are only deterred by the prestige of the United States naturally have their own considerations. If trump refuses to recognize his relatives, he can also give Saudi Arabia three points of face [because one of Trump’s political goals is to make peace between Israel and Middle East countries, and unanimously target Iran]. Then Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia seems too utilitarian. On the one hand, we want countries in the Middle East to help the United States survive this energy crisis. On the other hand, we also hope to organize a Middle East version of NATO to become a part of the security structure of the United States and Israel. Not to mention Saudi Arabia, even a small country like oman will not agree to such a thing. Moreover, the United States now has no absolute power to force the countries in the Middle East to yield.

So it’s not surprising if Saudi Arabia really joins the BRICs one day. Although the Russian media sometimes say some irrelevant words to scare the United States, it is also 60% or 70% reliable. And judging from the current attitude of Saudi Arabia towards Biden, Saudi Arabia must have other ideas in its heart. As for whether this idea will be realized, it depends on how much initiative Saudi Arabia can take in the game between the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Let’s talk about Putin. He will go to Iran for more than one purpose this time. To be honest, Putin’s ability to visit other countries at this time is actually very valuable. After all, the war is still going on, and there are too many unpredictable factors. His visit to Iran means that Putin has basically taken the initiative in this war. Now is the time to start fighting for the benefits of war. One of these interests is the Middle East. If Saudi Arabia cannot rely on the United States to obtain a sense of security, it must change its traditional policy in the Middle East, that is, to have good relations with Iran. There are no more than two countries that can make Iran have good relations, one is Russia and the other is China. The United States absolutely does not want the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran to ease, especially if it is also mixed with Israel.

Therefore, Putin’s visit to Iran is definitely an action with important influence on the future situation in the Middle East. Biden has been busy for a few days, and it is estimated that Putin will kick down his only achievements. Secondly, Russia needs the support of the international community. Although Iran is not an important country in the international community, its status in the region is very special. If Iran can be persuaded to support Russia’s strategic goals this time, this support is obviously much more important than Syria and North Korea. What’s more? Iran will also receive orders for hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles from Russia this time. This is also mutually beneficial. As for how Iran has such a strong UAV production capacity. Who knows?

Another purpose of Putin’s visit is to discuss with Turkey and Iran the future security issues in the Middle East and around the Black Sea. This is the blueprint that Russia, Turkey and Iran have been planning since the outbreak of the Libyan civil war, [including Qatar, which cannot directly come forward]. If the front is full of details, then the last point is probably an established layout of the future world pattern. Among them, we don’t say whether there is anything about China. But if we leave the economy and production construction, the best blueprint is a castle in the air, isn’t it?

Therefore, an image with a knife guard has been vividly standing in front of us.

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