Original: Shenzhen ningnanshan source: ningnanshan
Recently seen three data,
It’s interesting to see this picture of Nikkei Chinese network. The TV model with the largest sales volume in the Japanese TV market turns out to be from China TCL. In April 2022, the best-selling TV models in the Japanese market came from TCL, sharp, TVs REGZA (Toshiba TV, which has been acquired by Hisense and operates REGZA brand), Hisense, Panasonic, Sony six brands, two Chinese brands, and four Japanese brands. REGZA, a Japanese brand, has been owned by Hisense and is used by Hisense as its high-end TV brand. In fact, sharp was acquired by Hon Hai, Theoretically, they can be regarded as Taiwan, China brands, but for the time being, they are all regarded as Japanese brands. In April 2020, the best-selling TV in Japan was actually a 32 inch TV from TCL, while the fourth largest model in the Japanese market was a 24 inch TV from Hisense. In addition, Hisense also had a 32 inch TV model, which ranked 10th in Japan. That is, three of the top ten models were from Chinese brands, and four of the top ten models were from TVs REGZA, which is already a subsidiary of Hisense, with a total of seven models.
Of course, if we count sharp as a Chinese brand (it has been acquired by Taiwan’s Hon Hai), the top 12 TV models in the Japanese market are all Chinese.
For the time being, we only look at two pure Chinese brands, Hisense and TCL. We can also see that although the sales volume of Chinese TV is OK, the price is obviously low.
Hisense’s 24 inch TV is 21000 yen,
The 32 inch TV is 28000 yen,
TCL’s 32 inch TV is 36000 yen,
According to today’s exchange rate, it is only 1050 yuan, 1400 yuan and 1800 yuan respectively, which can be said to be very cheap.
Unlike Chinese brand 32 inch TVs, which sell for 1400-1800 yuan, Japanese brand 32 inch TVs also sell for more than 2400 yuan. And the large-size TV is covered by Japanese local brands.
For example, the price of Sony 55 inch LCD TV in Japan is 187000 yen, which is as high as 9350 yuan, while the price of Sony 55 inch OLED TV is as high as 264000 yen, which is as high as 13200 yuan. However, Chinese brand TV can be said to be the only foreign brand to enter the Japanese market.
In addition, if we include TVs REGZA and sharp into Chinese brands, the top 12 models in the Japanese market in April are all Chinese models, including seven models of Hisense and its TVs REGZA, four models of sharp, and one model of TCL. In Japan, Panasonic and Sony brands support only 40 inch and 55 inch brands, especially Sony.
Japanese TV, once popular in China, is now not only defeated in the Chinese market, but also counterattacked by China to Japan,
And I doubt how long Sony TV can maintain its high-end, because Sony is not strong in the direction of intelligence, Internet of everything and smart home.
To say more, the display panels used by Sony TV are all from China and South Korea, including Samsung, LG, BOE, csot, and Taiwan’s Youda.
This can be said to be unimaginable before, because we have always felt that it is very good to defeat Japanese household appliances in China. We never thought that one day Chinese household appliance brands could have an advantage in the already closed Japanese market.
The overall feeling of studying Japanese industry is “decadent”, like a middle-aged man in his 40s and 50s. He has strong technical ability and rich work experience, but he just doesn’t have that kind of upward momentum.
In fact, Japan has great advantages in semiconductor materials and equipment. In recent years, with the upsurge and popularity of the global semiconductor market, Japanese enterprises have also made a lot of money from it. However, the U.S. containment of China, especially the stranglehold sanctions on the semiconductor industry, has made China invest a lot in equipment and materials, while Japan does not have an advantage in the global chip manufacturing capacity. Japan’s IDM company is not bad, armor man, Sony can design and manufacture chips, but its capacity in chip OEM is not as good as that in Chinese Mainland. If Chinese chip manufacturing companies gradually engage in localization in the upstream, they will also squeeze their share.
In short, I think the prospects of Japan’s economy in the next decade are still not optimistic.
Another data is about cars,
With a car of more than 500000, you are the top 1% of families in the country,
With a car of more than 300000, you are the top 3% of families in the country. A few days ago, the National Bureau of statistics released the “China census yearbook 2020”, which contains many interesting data. Among them, the number of households in the country is calculated according to 457.9 million households, and the vehicle ownership rate of households in the country is 41.67%. Moreover, the Bureau of statistics also counted the price distribution of vehicles.
Note that in the seventh census, there were 494.16 million households and 28.531841 million collective households,
The census is divided into short table and long table. This car price statistics belongs to the long table of the census, and the practice of sampling 10% is adopted. However, the actual sampling is not strictly corresponding to 10%, but 45.7913 million households are sampled. If you extrapolate according to 10%, the corresponding is 457.9 million households, which is different from the total number of households in Qipu. However, there are always errors in statistics, and we mainly look at the proportion.
Among households nationwide, the number of households with luxury cars with a price of more than 1 million is 0.27%,
The proportion of families with cars priced at 500000-1000000 is 0.88%,
The proportion of households with 300000-500000 cars is 2.16%.
The proportion of households with 200000-300000 cars is 4.46%
In other words, in families across the country,
If the price of your car is more than 500000, you are the top 1.15% of families in the country,
If the price of your car is more than 300000, you are the top 3.31% of families in the country,
If the price of your car is more than 200000, you are the top 7.77% of families in the country.
In other words, 81.2% of the families with cars in the country have car prices below 200000, that is, your car price is above 200000, which is already the top 18.8% of the families with cars in the country.
Of course, the Chinese market is big enough, and the global market is big enough. For example, this family with cars priced at more than 300000 accounts for only 3.31% of China. It seems that the number is small, but according to 457.9 million families, it is also 15million families. Not to mention, the actual market is larger than this, because many families have bought cars for many years. It is likely that they bought cars of 1.2 million at that time, but now they have the ability to buy cars of more than 300000.
But this proportion still surprised me a little. Buying a car of more than 200000 can actually enter the top 10% of families in the country and the top 20% of families with cars in the country.
So from this point of view, there is still room for the development of China’s automobile market. Although the number has changed little over the years, there is a lot of room for upward upgrading in terms of amount.
At present, domestic Hongqi, Weilai, ideal, and even the cooperation between Huawei and Thalys are all trying to capture a market of more than 300000, which should also be out of this consideration. This is a growing market.
As long as we continue to maintain economic development and double the per capita GDP and national income before 2035, the size and amount of the entire automobile market will go up.
The third data is a “semiconductor material sanctions test”
This is a dispute between Japan and South Korea in 2019,
In October, 2018, the Supreme Court of South Korea ordered Japanese enterprises to pay compensation in the former labor claim case, which led to strong dissatisfaction in Japan. Therefore, by July, 2019, the then Abe Regime in Japan said that Japan and South Korea “have significantly damaged the trust relationship between the two countries”, restricting the export of “hydrogen fluoride” and “photoresist (photoresist) for EUV” indispensable for semiconductor production to South Korea The three categories of “fluorinated polyimide” used for OLED panel protection parts require individual review of each export contract to South Korea. Note that the review does not stop the export completely, but the initiative lies in Japan.
South Korea reacted strongly, calling it “economic retaliation”. In South Korea, there was even a boycott of Japanese products, and the relationship between Japan and South Korea deteriorated to what was called the worst after World War II.
Of course, as bystanders of the Chinese people, we are most concerned about three years later. Yes, it is July 2022 now. How about the replacement of these three materials in South Korea.
According to the report on June 30, 2022 on the Nikkei Chinese website, the data of the Korea trade association is quoted. The monthly amount of these three products exported from Japan to South Korea changes as follows:
Among them, the import of hydrogen fluoride from Japan has decreased by more than 50%, which is the best alternative. The import of fluorinated polyimide from Japan has also decreased slightly, while the import of photoresist from Japan has not decreased, but also increased.
Therefore, the substitution of the three materials from good to bad is hydrogen fluoride > Fluorinated polyimide > Photoresist.
Among them, since China has been able to produce electronic grade hydrogen fluoride, South Korea has also increased imports from China after 2019. Of course, South Korea can also produce part of it by itself, but the overall market for this thing is very small. It can also be seen from the above figure that before the Japanese sanctions in July 2019, South Korea imported hydrogen fluoride from Japan every month, that is, about $5million, not much.
In 2018, China’s total export of hydrogen fluoride was US $17million. In 2019, due to the surge in demand from South Korea, the export increased to US $34million. By 2020, the export was US $31million, of which US $19486000 was exported to South Korea. It is worth mentioning that both domestic enterprises and joint ventures with Japan export to South Korea.
In contrast, before the sanctions in July 2019, South Korea imported about US $8million of fluorinated polyimide and US $20million of photoresist from Japan every month. Although these two materials have been developed by enterprises in China, such as some low-end photoresists, which have been shipped in batches, on the whole, they cannot replace Japanese goods on a large scale.
The market is small, but it can choke.
Among the three raw materials of Japan, South Korea imported from Japan on a small scale. Before the sanctions in July 2019, the average monthly import of the three materials was about US $33million, almost US $400 million a year. In terms of amount, it was not large, but it was the key material that could jam the neck of semi conductor production.
Therefore, this is a technology that must be overcome, but fortunately, there are already relevant enterprises in China in the layout of R & D and production.
It can be seen from the example of South Korea that the difficulty of research and development and application of different materials are different, and the time required is also different. Some substitution speed is faster, and some are slower. In addition, for the attacked party, as long as it is technically replaceable, it can cause permanent losses to the country that initiated the sanctions.
As shown in the figure above, the hydrogen fluoride exported by Japan to South Korea has decreased from about US $5million a month to less than US $2million now, with an annual loss of more than US $30million. Considering that semiconductor materials are a high profit product, this is also a loss for Japan.
Moreover, such sanctions have also pushed South Korea closer to China’s supply chain. Once China’s supply chain achieves a technological breakthrough, it can not only meet the needs of domestic enterprises, but also supply fluorinated polyimide and photoresist to South Korea on a large scale, which will inevitably lead to a sharp decline in the export of relevant Japanese products to South Korea. Therefore, for China’s semiconductor material suppliers, the market is not just in the domestic market, Overseas markets are also eager for domestic materials from China.
The three East Asian countries are among the top five in the global manufacturing industry. The Japanese adopting this kind of neck tightening method is actually beneficial to China, which will make Korean manufacturers believe that China’s supply chain is more secure than Japan’s supply chain.
In short, I think that the reason why developed countries are developed and have high incomes is that there are still high-end industries that can cash in their scientific and technological capabilities. If they cannot cash in, they will not be able to maintain their current living standards.
Therefore, if China wins the semiconductor and automobile markets, it will significantly change the world’s economic and political pattern in ten years.