Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
Pelosi is preparing to visit Taiwan, which has become one of the most sensitive major events in the world today! The reason why this matter is sensitive is that it may directly trigger a high-intensity confrontation between China and the United States!
The nature and consequences of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan are very proud. Yesterday’s article, “if Pelosi dares to visit Taiwan, China will make a big move!” (click blue to check). In fact, up to now, this matter has been a contest of will and courage between China and the United States. Both sides have been considering using force to “control the field”.
On July 23 and 24, a number of senior US security officials spoke harshly, claiming to send aircraft carriers and warplanes to escort Speaker Pelosi of the US House of representatives to ensure his successful visit to Taiwan. Although the Pentagon has clearly warned Pelosi, the western side of Pelosi has not announced to give up his visit to Taiwan. This means that she has been making technical preparations for her visit to Taiwan.
In fact, all this is the temptation of all parties. Pelosi is testing China’s bottom line, and the Pentagon is also testing China’s bottom line. Once there is a loophole, they will drill in to make all this a reality. In other words, as long as China is not tough enough in its attitude and action, Pelosi will visit Taiwan in a high-profile manner under the escort of U.S. aircraft carriers and warplanes, and then announce to the world that the U.S. leader visited Taiwan under the escort of aircraft carriers and warplanes under China’s nose, thus proving to the world that China is afraid and counselled in front of the powerful military power of the United States. Then, they will guide their allies to follow suit, so as to continuously internationalize the Taiwan issue and promote the formation of a new cold war pattern.
In fact, the whole world is now looking at the result of the game between China and the United States on the Taiwan issue. Let’s not think that the U.S. Department of defense and Biden have warned Pelosi, and that Pelosi will really retreat in the face of difficulties. On the contrary, the higher the hype, the greater the power of all parties involved in the hype, and the higher the possibility of the final trip.
Because the higher the hype and the greater the enthusiasm of public opinion, the more points will be added to this matter, which will be more conducive to the mid-term election of the Democratic Party. The warnings of the US Department of defense and Biden may not be sincere at least at this stage, nor can they necessarily prevent things from happening. What Pelosi may really give up is China’s strength, which is the fundamental reason for China’s constant warning.
Will military means be used? Will military action be taken? After U.S. officials announced that they would be escorted by aircraft carriers and warplanes, China sent a clear signal to all parties through China’s Ministry of defense on July 26.
According to the wechat official account released by the “Ministry of defense” on July 26, a spokesman for the Ministry of defense answered reporters’ questions on the planned visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
A reporter asked: in response to the US House Speaker Pelosi’s plan to visit Taiwan, some media said that China may make a military response. What is the comment of the Chinese Army on this?
Tan Kefei, spokesman of the Ministry of defense, responded that China had repeatedly expressed its firm opposition to the planned visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Pelosi. As the “No. 3 person” of the U.S. government, if Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan, he will seriously violate the one China principle and the provisions of the three Sino US joint communiques, seriously endanger China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and seriously damage the political foundation of Sino US relations, which will inevitably cause extremely serious damage to the military relations between China and the United States, leading to further tension and escalation in the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
Tan Kefei said that the Chinese side requires the US side to fulfill its commitment not to support “Taiwan independence” with practical actions and shall not arrange Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. If the United States persists, the Chinese army will never sit idly by, and will certainly take strong measures to thwart any interference by external forces and the separatist attempt of “Taiwan independence”, and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The signal released by this question and answer is very clear. China has prepared for the worst, and the Chinese army is fully prepared. As long as Pelosi comes, the Chinese army will take effective measures to defeat any interference by external forces and the separatist attempt of “Taiwan independence”. Well, this sentence is thrown out, and it is a tit for tat with the high-ranking American officials who claim to have aircraft carriers and warplanes escorted. That is to say, as long as Pelosi dares to visit Taiwan, China will not hesitate to confront the American aircraft carriers and warplanes in the first island chain!
Chinese and American warplanes and warships often compete with each other in the South China Sea and near the first island chain, but these are examples, and the scale is very small. Your move is a gesture to a large extent. Only in 2016, the South China Sea was really tense and very dangerous. However, the nature of this time is different. Once Pelosi visits Taiwan, the political chips for winning or losing this battle are too large, so China must be ready.
Of course, if the United States decides to do so, it is also the result of a multi-party game. Therefore, it must be a hard fight, a quasi War confrontation, and the victory or defeat will directly have a huge impact on geopolitics.
According to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), this is actually an opportunity for China, an opportunity for China to let the United States retreat from difficulties, and an opportunity for China to let the United States understand China’s military strength before fighting with the United States.
The United States is a country that bullies the soft and fears the hard. If it finds that it is not China’s opponent in the first island chain militarily, or it has no confidence in defeating China at all, it will be super cautious militarily, which is not only strategically beneficial to China, but also more conducive to the stability and balance of the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
So, is it difficult for China to deal with the United States in the first island chain? Zhanhao believes that China’s current military strength is enough to maintain balance and even dominate when facing the United States in the Western Pacific. Therefore, we have no problem in the first island chain now. No matter the number and quality of our warships, the number and quality of warplanes, the level of training, and our intelligence command system, in fact, China is not weak in the United States. In the first island chain, China actually has sufficient advantages. In this case, a certain scale of confrontation with China is enough to make the United States retreat, and it is enough to bear any political cost in the face breaking situation.
For China, the bottom card is to unify Taiwan at all costs, and no one can stop it with China’s current strength. For the United States, I’m afraid no one dares to make a decision to put the first island chain on this visit, and no one dares to bear the political responsibility of this price now. To put it bluntly, at this stage, does the United States dare to fight with Japan and China? He has no such courage, nor does Japan. On the contrary, the reason why China has been relatively conservative before is to consider the overall situation, economic development and regional peace. However, if the United States has completely ignored the concerns of China, how can China care about the concerns of the United States? Since we can’t develop the economy peacefully, it’s better to turn to wartime economy; Since regional peace cannot be maintained, it is better to unify.
Therefore, for China, the most serious consequence is to quarrel with the United States, unify Taiwan and break the original geopolitical form of the first island chain. For the United States, on the contrary, once China breaks the geopolitical balance in this way, it will probably lose the entire Western Pacific. Because once Japan and South Korea think the United States is unreliable, they will immediately turn the other way around.
Therefore, it is better for the United States to think clearly. Is it just a bet with China so unprepared? Or do you wait for the result of the game of time gently. For the United States, the most drastic way may lose a lot, and the mild way may be less. However, the United States needs to understand that it cannot force a big country like China to use force, otherwise the consequences will not be bearable by the United States! China’s move will directly reduce the strategic swing space of the United States at home and abroad!
Some things need to be broken, and what China needs is just an opportunity! China doesn’t want to accelerate some opportunities, but if it has to come, China will meet the challenges and explain everything with strength!