Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (id:rongping898) has been authorized to reprint
Biden has been in trouble again recently.
This time, it is not Russia, but Iran, which is regarded by the United States as the other corner of the “China Russia Iran axis”.
According to the US State Department, Iran may “acquire a nuclear bomb” in “a few weeks”. Some international experts believe that it will only take 10 days. Us special envoy robertmarley warned that Iran has actually “reached that stage”.
Although the time is controversial, these statements undoubtedly point to the same dangerous fact – Iran has crossed the nuclear threshold and is close at hand, “near the point where no external force can prevent it from manufacturing nuclear weapons”!
What makes Biden more headache is that the United States is completely blind on this issue.
The reason is very simple. The Iranian nuclear negotiations have been stuck for several months. Iran has recently fallen out with the International Atomic Energy Agency and turned off a number of cameras. In addition, it has engaged in espionage warfare with Israel. The intelligence work is very strict. At present, Biden can get information in his hands, which is either fragmented or incomplete, or it is Patchwork and contradictory.
Biden could not judge when Iran would break the “nuclear threshold”, build a nuclear device carrying a nuclear bomb, and build a missile capable of launching a nuclear warhead.
In other words, Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons is out of control for the United States!
The struggle behind the negotiation
In fact, according to Biden, the solution to the Iranian nuclear issue still depends on negotiation, especially in the current context, it is better to talk than not to talk.
Why? There are three main points.
First, the oil problem.
In reality, Iran is the fourth largest oil barrel in the world. If we can reach an agreement with Iran and take advantage of the situation to lift some oil sanctions, it will be equivalent to giving a strong shot to the global market. It will immediately ease the market panic and restrain the high oil price to a great extent.
The high oil price is also the most difficult political problem for Biden at present. Biden will not let go of any opportunity to turn the tables.
Second, stabilize the Middle East.
In terms of geopolitical strategy, the United States pays attention to “balance of power” in its Middle East strategy. Only by ensuring that all forces do not show up can the United States hold its ground.
But if Iran really crosses that threshold and becomes a nuclear power, who else in the Middle East can “balance the power” with Iran? Iran with “nuclear superiority” is bound to dominate the Middle East and its foreign policy will be more radical. Who else can stop the expansion of the “Shiite arc” at that time?
So Obama, Trump and Biden are all using their own methods to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons. However, Trump’s tough pressure has not only consumed the United States, but in fact failed to stop the Iranians’ secret efforts. The United States has invested more and more resources in containment, which has stimulated Iran’s growing determination to embrace nuclear weapons. Then the United States has to further intensify containment. When is this the end?
Since “extreme pressure” does not work, as long as the United States does not want to use military means, Obama style negotiations are the only way.
Third, return to India.
After Biden took office, in order to concentrate on encircling China, the United States has maintained a strategic contraction in the Middle East.
The biggest obstacle for the United States to shrink from the Middle East strategy is Iran. Because of the existence of this nail, the United States not only cannot walk away, but also needs more and more investment.
But on the other hand, once the United States and Iran can sign an agreement to stabilize the overall situation in the Middle East, the United States will have the spare power to transfer a large amount of resources from the Middle East and invest in the competition between Asia and China.
From the perspective of Iran, it is also controversial to possess nuclear weapons.
At the very least, the inflation and economic difficulties caused by sanctions are real because of the nuclear issue and the U.S. falling out over the years. People’s lives are getting worse and worse. Protests have become the norm, greatly shaking the authority of the Tehran regime.
Moreover, under the US sanctions, Iran has faced years of political isolation. If it forcibly owns nuclear weapons, Iran is bound to pay a greater political price, and the surrounding security environment will deteriorate to the extreme. This is not what Iran wants.
Therefore, in Iran, from ruhani, a moderate, to Laixi, a hardline, in fact, they do not want to walk the road. It is better to sign an agreement that is beneficial to Iran, so that Iran will no longer be excluded politically and economically, and truly become a normal independent country. This is much more reliable than the risk-taking policy of nuclear weapons.
It is precisely because both sides have intentions that the United States and Iran are willing to sit down and talk after Biden takes office.
In order to show his sincerity, Biden even loosened the restrictions on Iran’s civil nuclear activities, and Iran happily accepted the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Although the two sides are dead lipped, the intention of the negotiations is true.
But the question is, whether to talk about it or not, it doesn’t count if Biden said it!
The current Iranian nuclear negotiations are mainly stuck in two points: first, Iran demands that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard be removed from its “list of terrorist organizations”; Second, Iran asked the United States to make a guarantee that the signed agreement will not be torn up like Wang.
President Biden could not promise either of these two things.
First, the allies in the Middle East oppose it.
In the next year, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard has successfully created a “Shia arc” for Iran to change the pattern of the Middle East, which has greatly strengthened Iran’s presence in the Middle East. However, this expansion has also made Middle East countries generally uneasy and regarded it as a scourge.
If the United States really removes the Revolutionary Guard from the list of terrorist organizations and lifts the corresponding sanctions, the final result will certainly irritate the allies in the Middle East, especially Israel.
It goes without saying that Israel is of great importance to the United States. Even Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates dare not make people unhappy when the gasoline price is soaring?
Second, Biden can’t be the leader of the Republican Party.
As early as February, when the agreement was most likely to be reached, a group of Republicans wrote to Biden, saying that you could not sign a new agreement with Iran. Even if you signed it, we would either tear it up in Congress or tear it up after the Republican party returned to power. In a word, it would be useless to sign it!
The reason of the Republicans is also very simple: after Obama signed the nuclear agreement with Iran, the oil sanctions were loosened, which led to a sharp rise in Iran’s financial resources. With a lot of money, Iran has funded agents and allies in the whole Arab region. Now you still have to sign a new agreement and relax sanctions. What is not the enemy of funds?
What else can Biden do with this big hat?
In particular, Iran’s image in the United States has been demonized for a long time, and Biden’s support rate is now in jeopardy. Any appearance of “kindness” to Iran will certainly be spurned by all parties and affect the election situation of the Democratic Party. Therefore, Biden does not have the courage to solve the problem at least before the end of the mid-term election.
However, the mid-term election is far away in November, and Iran’s nuclear breakthrough is imminent. According to Israel’s assessment, Iran can produce nuclear bombs, vehicles and missiles within half a year. When the U.S. election is finalized, the cauliflower here will be cold!
Biden is not sure about these two issues. Can he force Iran to make concessions?
No, because Iran also has a big brother behind it.
On June 23, foreign minister Wangyi called with Iranian foreign minister abdullahian at invitation, asking the United States, the “initiator”, to recognize its mistakes, make a political decision early, actively respond to the reasonable demands of the Iranian side, and express its position to strengthen China Iran relations and continue to “firmly support each other on issues involving each other’s core interests and major concerns”.
On the same day, Lavrov met with abdullahian in Tehran. The two sides also stated that they would cooperate against the “western aggression policy”. Abdullahian also specially thanked China and Russia for their support for Iran.
This is the obvious support.
In fact, there is a very important principle involved here, that is, as participants in the six-party talks, China and Russia are also opposed to Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons.
However, the “anti Iranian nuclear” of China and Russia is different from that of the United States.
The so-called “anti Iranian nuclear” of the United States is actually deliberately confusing the “Iranian nuclear issue” with the “Iranian issue”, and then using the “moral advantage” of the nuclear issue to openly suppress Iran.
Think about it. How many years has the United States sanctioned Iran before the Iranian nuclear issue? At the beginning of 2000, Iran’s uranium enrichment did not exceed international standards. What is the basis for the United States to engage in “nuclear sanctions”?
Just because the United States wants to contain Iran, it just has a big cover for the nuclear issue.
When Iran stated its nuclear position before, it said that “it must not make concessions under the pressure of the United States, otherwise it would be equivalent to giving up Iran’s national status”, which is the reason.
However, Iran is also an important cornerstone of Russia’s foothold in the Middle East and an important link of China’s “the Belt and Road”. The relationship between China, Russia and Iran is there. China and Russia will certainly help Iran fight back with the iron fist of the United States.
This has determined that China and Russia’s position on the Iranian nuclear issue is bound to be different from that of the United States – that is, they should maintain the nuclear non-proliferation mechanism, oppose Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons and maintain stability in the Middle East; It also opposes the United States’ omni-directional suppression of Iran and even the collapse of Iran through the Iranian nuclear issue.
With the attitude of China and Russia behind it, at least the Iranian nuclear issue cannot fully follow the intentions of the United States. There is no unilateral concession by Iran. The United States is also under pressure to make concessions.
Then, as I said before, in the current American system, bullies can make equal concessions, which is impossible.
Then the matter will naturally freeze.
Therefore, it is difficult to follow the diplomatic path.
However, it is a fact that Iran can produce materials for a nuclear bomb in weeks or days.
At that point, what will happen in the Middle East?
Will Israel, which the United States acquiesces in possessing nuclear weapons, stockpile nuclear warheads like mad? Will Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf countries with long-standing nuclear programs take the opportunity to start the nuclear process?
What can the United States do in the face of a nuclear race in the Middle East? Can’t stop Iran, but stop its allies from “building nuclear weapons to protect themselves”?
Even if, to say the least, these allies can be appeased and not engage in a nuclear race, the price must be for the United States to come to the bottom, increase security investment in the Middle East, and double the armed protection of a group of little brothers.
However, the United States is embarrassed again: it is heavily pressed in the Middle East, and it is at risk of a nuclear war with Iran at any time. The proxy war in the Middle East is raging everywhere. The United States no longer has the energy to suppress China and Russia, and “returning to India and the Pacific” has become a unfinished project, watching the rise of China on its knees!
This assumption is now becoming a reality. For example, the United Arab Emirates, which has the most sensitive political sense and the most flexible wrist in the Middle East, recently made a bet on Iran and took the initiative to improve relations with Iran, which is looking for a way back for the failure of the US control panel.
Now the ball is at Biden’s feet. If the diplomatic negotiation fails, there must be a solution, right?
Thus, two schemes began to surface.
First, use the strength of allies to form a regional alliance against Iran.
Biden’s trip to the Middle East in July, in addition to asking for oil, on the one hand, he also wanted to make efforts for the Iranian nuclear negotiations, and personally went to the Middle East to do Israel’s ideological work, but it was hard to say whether the Israelis would face it or not.
On the other hand, it is to continue the momentum of normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries last year, and carry out military integration between Israel and Arab allies’ networks. For example, with the Pentagon as the hub, it connects the prevention and control systems of Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and other countries, and creates a large air defense network against Iran in the whole Middle East.
The advantages of doing so are: first, fully mobilize the strength of allies, replace the huge investment of the United States, and realize the localization of defense; Second, the United States took the opportunity to reconcile the contradictions among its allies, saving the United States trouble; Third, it has deepened the security dependence of its allies and strengthened the control of the United States over its regional allies, especially those children who have been disobedient recently.
But the shortcomings of this scheme are also obvious.
First of all, can Israel and Arab countries be united? Not to mention Israel, but to say that these Gulf countries have not reached this level of trust!
In particular, on sensitive national defense issues, it is absolutely impossible for Israel to disclose its defense system to Arab countries, and it is impossible for Arab countries to share their own air defense data. Therefore, it does not look optimistic about the extent to which this large defense network can be pulled.
Secondly, what does Iran think if you do this around Iran?
No matter what you say, from the perspective of Iran, are the threats and pressures against the country increasing? Is the security situation around the country deteriorating?
What would you do if there were wolves around? It must be holding on to the nuclear weapons option!
Moreover, the United States has its strategy, and Iran also has Iran’s wisdom.
Do you think the United States has a big network of anti Iran allies? Why not Iran?
So recently, Iran, in turn, has negotiated with neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, seeking to improve bilateral relations, and has successfully signed some agreements.
At least, it can weaken the alliance will of all parties and make it more difficult for the defense alliance system of the United States.
Second, use force.
In fact, the United States does not want to directly confront Iran. After all, Iran is not Afghanistan. It has a strong military, a vast territory and many mountains. Can it win the war and pay much price? Let alone say, can the United States still afford to be trapped in the Middle East for another 20 years?
If possible, the United States would prefer to use the Israeli method to assassinate a motorcycle killer today. Tomorrow, your nuclear scientist will be inexplicably poisoned. The day after tomorrow, it will plan an accidental fall from a building. Then it will launch a cyber attack if nothing happens. After going through the process of mission impossible, the three armed forces will settle the matter.
However, these small-scale measures, after all, can not delay Iran’s national level plan.
Then there is only one option left, war.
Israel has put down its words. If the nuclear negotiations between the West and Iran fail, the IDF will plan “several military options” against Iran.
Then in early June, Israel conducted a military exercise of “simulated attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities”, with the participation of almost all Israeli troops, which is known as Israel’s “largest performance in history”.
The intended goal of this exercise is a “fierce, multi line and protracted war”.
Interestingly, the U.S. military did not go, not only did it, but the U.S. central command and the Pentagon also scrambled to “refute rumors” and repeatedly clarified that the U.S. military did not “directly participate” for fear that Iran would think too much.
But the question is, if Israel is determined to pull the United States into the water, can the United States watch the excitement like Ukraine?
In fact, it is easy to understand that the United States does not want to be involved, because if this war really breaks out, whether it is Israel’s initiative to attack or Israel and Iraq wipe their guns and go off, the situation will only be worse than the war between Russia and Ukraine!
At that time, the United States may not directly participate in the war, but adopt the upgraded Ukrainian model to provide intelligence and advanced weapons support to Israel.
Iran, on the other hand, launched its agents in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq to completely spread the flames of war and fight a protracted regional war.
Besides, outside the battlefield, Iran will probably block the Strait of Hormuz, or use its geographical advantage to attack merchant ships in the Gulf region, and even, in extreme cases, take the initiative to attack Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries. The global energy market will definitely suffer greater shocks than today.
Of course, some people say, without a full-scale war, is it OK to carry out targeted clearance of Iran’s nuclear facilities?
Specifically, before Iran broke through the nuclear threshold, there was a lightning “precision bombing” to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities with ground penetrating missiles, leaving nothing left.
This idea is certainly possible.
But let’s not talk about Iran’s cunning, just say you want to shoot missiles. Can your bombers pass?
Do you have to destroy Iran’s radar and air defense systems before the bombers pass?
And a dozen Iranian air defense systems, this is not a declaration of war?
Therefore, as long as we use force, there is no option of “accurate surgical strike”. Once the war begins, it will be an all-round war.
Once this all-out war starts, it will be difficult to stop!
At the end of the article, the author has something to say
Today, the Middle East is a “powder keg about to explode”. No one knows when it will explode and how far it will spread.
All countries are waiting for the United States to fight the fire.
If Biden can not show his “leadership” in the crisis, or is at a loss as he is now, who will continue to treat the United States as the sole leg of the Middle East countries, from Israel to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates?
If Russia’s victory in the Ukrainian battlefield and China’s “the Belt and Road” in the South Pacific and other regions are superimposed, the most terrifying reality for the United States has already emerged——
In fact, the three countries, China, Russia and Iraq, are forming a linkage effect. The word “long snake” means hitting its head and tail, hitting its tail and head and tail, and hitting all of them. They attack from three sides, challenging the three most important hegemonic strongholds of the United States in the Asia Pacific, Europe and the Middle East, so that the United States simply cannot concentrate on attacking one of them.
No matter where the emergency is, what can Biden do now?
Ten fingers on a flea, the United States will not be able to play!