China’s new aircraft carrier is launched. What will be the next battle?

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Source: jingsiyouwo666 (id:jingsiyouwo666)

In the last issue, I mentioned that Turkey used to be very powerful in history, which directly led to his special pursuit to be the leader of the Middle East.

But in fact, this meaning is not the core meaning I wanted to talk about in that issue. At the beginning of that issue, I said that Turkey opposed Finland and Sweden to join NATO, which helped Russia a lot. My original intention was to talk about why Turkey should help Russia in this way, so I started to talk about Turkey’s past and present lives. As a result, as soon as he finished, he had almost 8000 words. If he continued to finish the story as planned, the length of the whole article would be frightening, so he had to stop.

Today, we will continue to talk about why Turkey supports Russia at the critical moment when Finland and Sweden want to join NATO. The way to support it is to oppose Finland and Sweden to join NATO. In my last article, I said that from a simple and direct point of view, the effect of Turkey’s opposition is almost equal to Russia’s fight.

From a simple and direct point of view, Russia fought this war just to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Now Finland and Sweden may join NATO, and Turkey only needs to stick to its opposition to stop it.

Then why should Turkey treat Russia so well? Are they iron brothers?

In fact, Turkey and Russia are not iron brothers at all. Historically, the two are rivals and enemies for hundreds of years. The history of this enemy has lasted until 2016, which is very close to now.

For more than 200 years from 1676 to 1878, Russia was the Czar Russia and Turkey was the Ottoman Turkish Empire. Both of them were ruthless characters. During these 200 years, the two ruthless characters had 10 wars, known as 10 Russian Turkish wars in history.

In 1676, the first Russian Turkish war broke out in China in the 15th year of the Kangxi reign of the Qing Dynasty, fighting for the territory of the lower Dnieper River in Ukraine. After five years of fighting, there was no winner. In 1681, a contract was signed and the war was suspended.

After a five-year break, the second Russian Turkish war took place in 1686. In 1700, Russia won the victory, occupied the mouth of the Don river, won the Yasu fortress, and established the first sea port in the Black Sea.

Ten years later, in 1710, the third Russian Turkish war broke out, this time the northern expedition of Turkey. Three years later, in 1713, Turkey finally recovered the mouth of the Don River from Russia. Russia lost the war, and Asia speed returned to Turkish rule.

During the three Russian Turkish wars, Emperor Kangxi was in power in China. China was ruled by Emperor Kangxi, and Russia and Turkey had three wars.

The fourth Russian Turkish war broke out in 1735, when the Chinese Emperor Yongzheng died and his son Emperor Qianlong ascended the throne. This war was fought until 1739 A.D., Russia won a small victory, and Asia speed was once again owned by Russia.

The fifth Russian Turkish war broke out in 1768, when Emperor Qianlong was still in power in China. By 1774, Russia had won a great victory and won 2.5 million rubles of war reparations. It also won the area between the Dnieper River and the South Bouguer River and the Kerch Strait, and once again won the sea port of the Black Sea.

The 6th Russian Turkish war broke out in 1787. Russia won again. Turkey admitted that Russia annexed Crimea and Georgia. Russia realized its ambition to dominate the Black Sea and consolidated the sea port of the Black Sea.

From the 4th to the 6th Russian Turkish war, Emperor Qianlong of the Qing Dynasty was in power in China, one emperor was in power in China, and three more wars broke out between Russia and Turkey.

The seventh Russian Turkish war broke out in 1806. In 1812, Turkey was defeated again and ceded a place called pisarabia to Russia. Part of this place now belongs to Ukraine and part to Moldova. It once belonged to Romania briefly in history. Of course, it has always belonged to the Soviet Union in the Soviet era.

The 8th Russian Turkish war took place in 1828. In 1829, Turkey was defeated and ceded the territory along the Outer Caucasus coast to Russia.

The 9th Russian Turkish war broke out in 1853, which was also called the Crimean War. Naturally, the focus of contention is Crimea, which is now legally owned by Ukraine. However, in 2014, the Crimea Autonomous Republic of Ukraine and Sevastopol City, which have held a referendum to join the Russian Federation, are in short the Crimea peninsula.

This Russian Turkish war ended in 1856, when Russia was defeated. Basically, the result was to spit out all the things he had gained from winning Turkey in previous Russian Turkish wars. The defeat of Russia has not yet finished the war. The 58 year old Tsar Nicholas I, ashamed, committed suicide. Of course, some people say that under the heavy pressure, they became ill and died of illness.

The 10th Russian Turkish war broke out from 1877 to 1878. This time, Turkey was defeated. Turkey was forced to sign the “San Stefano treaty” with Russia, which stipulated that Russia could enter and leave the Turkish Strait at will. At the same time, a “great Bulgarian principality” was established in the Balkans.

This is the general situation of the ten Russian Turkish wars. It lasted 202 years.

However, the story is not over, and then the good play comes on. The European powers intervened in the 10th Russian Turkish war one after another. Finally, for various reasons, Russia, Turkey and relevant European powers signed the New Berlin treaty in Berlin.

Compared with the Treaty of San Stefano signed by Russia and Turkey at the end of the 10th Russian Turkish war, the achievements of Russia in the war have been greatly weakened.

The main content is that the “grand Bulgarian principality” stipulated in the Treaty of San Stefano was dismembered, that is, the grand Bulgarian principality was originally controlled by Russia and later controlled by various powers. Specifically, Serbia and Montenegro are independent. Bosnia and Herzegovina is nominally owned by the Ottoman Turkish Empire, but entrusted to the Austrian Hungarian Empire. Britain got Cyprus on the Mediterranean Sea to the south of Turkey.

What is more serious is that the hidden danger laid down by the postwar booty sharing agreement directly led to the outbreak of World War I more than 20 years later.

The details are as follows: according to the agreement, the time for the Austro Hungarian Empire to trust Bosnia and Herzegovina is 20 years, which expired in 1908. It is reasonable to say that after the expiration, the place should be returned to the Ottoman Turkish Empire, but the Austro Hungarian Empire does not want to return it. Upon the expiration of the trusteeship period, the Austro Hungarian Empire directly declared that it would permanently own Bosnia and Herzegovina.

About 40% of Bosnia and Herzegovina entrusted by Austria Hungary are Serbs. Next to him is an independent country called Serbia, which we now know as Serbia. Both the Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina entrusted by the Austro Hungarian Empire and the Serbs in Serbia are Slavic like the Russians and believe in the Orthodox Church.

So after 20 years of trusteeship, the Austro Hungarian Empire did not want to return the Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but wanted independence. The neighboring Serbian state naturally supports their independence, while Russia supports the Serbian state. Naturally, this was unacceptable to the Austro Hungarian Empire, which was bent on repairing Serbia.

On June 28th, 1914, Archduke Ferdinand, crown prince of the Austro Hungarian Empire, the successor of the emperor, and his princess came to Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia Herzegovina, to review the troops. The crown prince and princess were assassinated with pistols.

Thus, although the Austro Hungarian Empire lost a crown prince and princess, it got a good reason to invade Serbia. The wishful thinking of the Austro Hungarian Empire is, doesn’t Serbia support the independence of the Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina under the jurisdiction of the Austro Hungarian Empire? I laughed at you in Serbia. I see how you can be independent in the future.

So the Austro Hungarian Empire attacked Serbia. So Germany supported Austria Hungary. At the same time, Russia, France and Britain supported Serbia, while Italy expressed neutrality in the early stage and also supported Serbia in the late stage. Thus the first World War began.

After several years of bloody fighting, the first World War was finally over. However, the root causes of war have not been eliminated.

The distribution of stolen goods after the end of the first World War was very unscientific. I say here that he is unscientific, not to say who gets more and who gets less, but to say that he is not conducive to post-war stability. The most specific point is that the amount of compensation demanded from Germany is too large, which directly makes it impossible for Germany to complete the task of compensation, and directly forces Germany onto the road of Jedi counterattack. As a result, Germany embarked on the road of fascism and finally detonated the Second World War.

In this way, the important cause of World War II is World War I. The important cause of the first World War was the tenth Russian Turkish war. The important reason for the 10th Russian Turkish war was the previous 9 Russian Turkish wars.

In this way, there was a clear logical connection from the first Russian Turkish war in 1676 to the end of the Second World War.

So I say that Russia and Turkey are feuds for hundreds of years. In this case, how can the relationship between Russia and Turkey be better?

However, this only refers to the end of World War II and the cold war period after the end of World War II. How about the relationship between the Soviet Union and Turkey?

Let’s just say one thing. We say NATO is expanding eastward.

This is a hot word in the current discussion, because we believe that the five eastward expansion of NATO after the cold war and the compression of Russia’s strategic space are the fundamental reasons for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. If Finland and Sweden succeed in joining NATO this time, it can be called the sixth eastward expansion of NATO.

The so-called NATO eastward expansion means that NATO continues to develop new members to the East. Turkey is a member of NATO. How many times did Turkey join NATO after NATO’s eastward expansion?

The answer is: not once.

Because when we say that NATO’s five eastward expansions refer to the expansion after the collapse of the Soviet Union, not including the expansion before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Turkey joined NATO long before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the time was very early. The specific time was february18,1952.

NATO was established on April 4th, 1949. At the beginning of its establishment, 12 countries including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Portugal and Italy participated. Three years later, in 1952, new members were recruited for the first time. There were two new members in total: one was Greece and the other was Turkey.

Therefore, Turkey is a senior NATO member.

What does NATO do? It was against the Soviet Union before the end of the cold war. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, it is reasonable to say that he should be dissolved, but instead of disbanding, he also expanded eastward, pointing at Russia, the successor of the Soviet Union.

And Turkey is a senior NATO member. You say, after World War II, how can Turkey’s relations with the Soviet Union or Russia be better?

However, this kind of analysis angle is long historical span and macro. Next, let’s talk about something closer and more specific

In 2011, civil war broke out in Syria. It can be said that it is particularly difficult to distinguish between the parties involved in the Syrian civil war, who is the enemy and who is the friend. It is simply a mess.

However, if we only talk about Turkey, it is relatively simple that Turkey supports many armed groups opposed to the Syrian government. In short, Turkey opposes the Syrian government.

As we all know, Russia supports the Syrian government.

So, how can Russia and Turkey improve their relations?

Turkey opposes the Syrian government, or supports armed groups against the Syrian government, for two main reasons:

First, in the last article, we said that Turkey is very powerful in history, so there has always been a great dream of dominating the Middle East. Then, taking advantage of the Syrian civil war to weaken the Middle East country Syria around him is naturally to reduce difficulties in the future.

However, this reason is relatively false.

Another very real reason is:

There is a group of people in Syria called Kurds who have always wanted independence. These Kurds have always wanted to unite with the Kurds in Syria, Iraq and Iran to form a country.

Turkey naturally does not allow such separatist incidents to occur, so it is necessary to combat such separatist forces.

As the Kurds of these four countries live in the border areas at the borders of the four countries and are closely connected with each other, Turkey often goes to other countries to fight against the Kurdish separatist forces in their countries, including Syria to eliminate the Kurds in Syria.

This naturally infringes upon Syria’s sovereignty, which can be said to be aggression.

The Syrian government is naturally very angry, so the Syrian government and the Turkish government are naturally enemies.

Incidentally, the most important reason why Turkey opposes Finland and Sweden to join NATO this time is that it accuses Sweden of shielding the Kurdish separatist forces that shield Turkey.

From this, we find that, in terms of the long historical span, from 1676, that is, the 15th year of Kangxi’s reign in the Qing Dynasty, when we talked about 10 Russian Turkish wars, the first World War, the Second World War, the cold war, and the eastward expansion of NATO after the cold war, we can not find any basis for good relations between Turkey and Russia.

In the Syrian civil war of the past decade or so, Turkey has not dealt with the Syrian government, and Russia supports the Syrian government, so the relationship between Russia and Turkey is certainly not much better.

Against this background, on november24,2015, a Russian fighter plane was fighting for Syria. Close to the Turkish border, Turkey saw the opportunity and shot down the Russian fighter plane.

Shooting down a Russian fighter plane is a big deal. This has pushed Turkey’s relations with Russia into a trough again.

Friends, you can imagine standing at the time node when Turkey shot down the Russian fighter plane on november24,2015, looking back on the gratitude and resentment of hundreds of years, as well as the bumps and bumps of recent decades and decades. If you were the strongman Putin and the leader of the fighting national polar bear, what would you do?

I think there is only one answer in many people’s minds, that is: Thunder and anger, killing all sides, and whoever you fight will have a war.

So, how did the strongman Putin the great deal with it?

Naturally, it is impossible to be soft when such a big thing happens, so naturally, it is hard to say. I won’t repeat the specific hard words. It is certainly not enough to just say hard words. There must also be practical blows.

There are two main aspects of the actual crackdown:

One is economic sanctions. For example, the Russians are not allowed to travel to Turkey, the supply of Russian natural gas to Turkey is limited, and Russian domestic companies cannot hire Turkish employees.

Another aspect is the military attack. A convoy of 20 Military trucks in Turkey was attacked by Russian missiles, and seven drivers were killed.

In this case, has Turkey softened? The answer is: No.

Putin asked Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to apologize. He refused to apologize and insisted that Russian warplanes had crossed the border. Turkey shot down Russian warplanes to protect Turkey’s national airspace.

My friends think that if you were Putin, would you give up?

What did Putin do next?

This question is not easy to answer, because in the open, we can’t see how many big moves Putin has, but it is said that Putin has also made two moves in the Jianghu.

The two legendary actions are:

Putin bombed some oil refining facilities in Syria. It is said that this oil refining facility is not simple. It is controlled by the terrorist organization “Islamic state”. In fact, it is the family property of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Another legendary move was that Russian agents sent Erdogan photos of his son colluding with terrorist organizations, suggesting that his son was mixed with terrorist organizations.

It is said that, with the blessing of these two legendary actions, Erdogan apologized to Putin and compensated for the losses in June 2016.

According to the analysis of public opinion, Putin is still a strong man and finally forced Erdogan to bow down.

And I have different views on this analysis. Many of my friends may not agree with my analysis. I’ll say it today for your reference.

First of all, Putin made two overt moves, one was economic sanctions, and the other was bombing the Turkish motorcade. These two efforts were not small, indeed not large. More importantly, he did not bow his head.

Secondly, the legendary two actions of Putin are not sure whether they are true or false.

Let’s assume that he is true. So let’s think about it in depth. Why doesn’t Putin do these things with great fanfare? In addition, Putin’s two legendary actions are both threats to Erdogan himself and his family, but he did not attack Turkey.

Therefore, I believe that these two legendary actions of Putin, even if they are true, are still very restrained, rather than the thundering rage and killing of the four sides as we imagined.

We can compare the direct causes of the outbreak of World War I.

The Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina controlled by the Austro Hungarian Empire assassinated the crown prince. Without investigation, the Austro Hungarian Empire directly blamed the neighboring Serbian state and put forward an ultimatum that must be answered within 48 hours.

Subsequently, the Serbian state basically accepted the ultimatum of losing power and humiliating the country, but did not accept it on oneortwo small issues. It was expected that the next step would be to discuss the judgment, discuss the price, and pay back the price.

However, the Austro Hungarian Empire did not give Serbia a chance to bargain and directly launched a war against Serbia, which led to the first World War.

From this comparison, we can clearly understand that Putin’s basic principle in dealing with the shooting down of Russian warplanes by Turkey is that necessary punishment is necessary, but to control the escalation of the situation, he just hopes that the other party will admit his mistake and ensure that it will not be an example.

In a word, Putin has not decided to turn his face against Turkey because of hundreds of years of gratitude and hatred and the fact that the fighter plane was shot down.

Moreover, my analysis assumes that the two actions of Putin in the legend are true. If the legend is false, my analysis will be more tenable.

In short, my conclusion is that Putin was not angry at the humiliation of the fighter plane being shot down by Turkey, but controlled his emotions and tried to deal with the matter calmly and rationally.

Although on the surface, he showed a certain degree of tough attitude, which is understandable. There is no way to do this. Otherwise, he will not be able to account for both domestic and international affairs.

I know that many friends disapprove of my analysis, so I want to say one more thing to make my analysis more tenable. That is, just over a month after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan apologized in june2016, on July 15, 2016, the Turkish army launched a coup to assassinate President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Recep Tayyip Erdogan hurriedly fled by plane, escaped a disaster and saved his life.

The key point of the story is that Erdogan himself did not know that someone was going to kill him. It was Russian agents who got the information and Putin passed it on to Erdogan. In short, Putin saved Erdogan’s life.

We can imagine that even if Erdogan apologized, if Putin really resented the downing of the fighter plane and wanted to kill Erdogan in Turkey, Putin would never provide Erdogan with this life-saving information.

So my judgment is that in the face of hundreds of years of gratitude and resentment, and the great humiliation of the fighter plane being shot down, the strongman Putin did not intend to escalate the situation, but consciously made it small and trivial. In the words of the common people, it’s ok if it’s acceptable.

Subsequently, the relations between Turkey and Russia have undergone important changes, and the relations between the two countries are getting better and better.

It’s not reliable to show love among politicians. I won’t waste my friends’ time here. I said it was hard and effective. For example, Turkey bought S400 air defense missile system from Russia.

In international relations, the purchase of weapons by one country from another is an important feature of the strong relationship between the two countries.

Not only that, this Turkish move also offended the United States. The United States continued to do his work and threaten him, but Turkey remained obsessed and bought Russian weapons. To this end, the United States also turned against Turkey, and the cooperation that was originally intended to sell Turkey F35 fighters was cancelled.

If you think about it, Turkey will not hesitate to offend the United States, but also buy Russian weapons. This relationship is not an ordinary one.

Of course, I am not saying that Turkey and Russia are iron clad, because there are still many differences between the two sides on the Kurdish issue and the Syrian battlefield, but the leaders of the two countries can manage and control the differences well. The most famous is that Putin and Turkey held talks in Sochi and formulated the basic principles for dealing with these contradictions and problems, which we will not discuss in detail today.

Against this background, let’s take a look at Turkey’s performance in the Russia Ukraine conflict.

First of all, as a member of NATO and a candidate of the European Union, Turkey logically shares the same front with the United States and the west, but Turkey has not participated in sanctions against Russia. Turkey is not on the list of 48 unfriendly countries and regions published by Russia.

Secondly, after the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict, there was a news that puzzled the public opinion, that is, Turkey refused to allow Russian warships to enter the Black Sea through the Turkish Strait to participate in the Russian Ukrainian conflict. Some people think that Turkey is in a dilemma with Russia.

In fact, Turkey’s practice is based on the Montreux convention, which came into force in 1936. During the war, all foreign warships whose home port is not in the black sea can be banned.

What is the result of this? Russian warships cannot enter, but neither can warships of the United States and other NATO countries.

But let’s think about it. Russia has a Black Sea Fleet in the Black Sea, and this battle was fought by Russia. Therefore, before the battle, many Russian warships were already there, and there was no need to drill in temporarily.

In this way, we can see which side Turkey prefers when it does not allow warships of all countries in the world, including Russian warships, to enter the Black Sea during the Russian Ukrainian conflict.

Third, in late March, with the mediation of Turkey, Russia and Ukraine reached the most successful agreement since the beginning of the Russia Ukraine conflict in Istanbul, Turkey. If the United States had not acted as a hindrance, the agreement would have been signed and the conflict would have ended. The keynote of this agreement is undoubtedly beneficial to Russia, because Russia is the victorious side of the war.

Fourth, it is the core topic of my last article and this issue, that is, when Finland and Sweden want to join NATO at the time of the most intense conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Turkey opposes it. According to the rules that all NATO members have always agreed to, Turkey’s vote of opposition can spoil the matter.

On the optimistic side, if Turkey really messed up the issue, its effectiveness would be equivalent to that of Russia. Because Russia fought this war to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, and Turkey’s veto prevented Finland and Sweden from joining NATO. Whether Ukraine joins NATO or Finland and Sweden join NATO, it is a major threat to Russia’s national security situation.

In a pessimistic way, assuming that Sweden and the United States agreed to Turkey’s request, Turkey would finally give in and not carry it to the end, and Finland and Sweden would eventually join NATO. In this process, Turkey also gave Russia a chance to breathe.

More importantly, this event has great symbolic significance. If Russia beats Ukraine up because Ukraine wants to join NATO, and the war is not over, Finland and Sweden join NATO. This is a great irony to Russia.

At such a critical moment, Turkey has emerged. It may be yellow to let Finland and Sweden join NATO. At least, the United States and other NATO countries want to use Finland and Sweden to join NATO to humiliate Russia.

Therefore, regardless of whether Turkey will carry it to the end or not, what Turkey is doing now alone is also a great support for Russia.

Tracing back to the source, what is the reason why Turkey, Russia’s enemy for hundreds of years, has been able to give strong support to Russia in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

The fundamental reason is naturally the hegemony of the United States and the national interests of Turkey.

For example, the United States has long used Israel as a nail and stronghold and an enemy of the entire Arab world in the Middle East. If Turkey wants to dominate the Middle East, it must unite the Arab world in the Middle East. Therefore, Turkey’s opposition to the United States is determined by its national strategy.

For another example, in order to overthrow the Assad regime in Syria, the United States supported the Kurds in Syria without a bottom line, and did not respect and attach importance to Turkey’s actions against secession. This is absolutely unacceptable to Turkey, which has a big power dream. How can we talk about the great power dream if we can’t even make up our own country’s separatists? What about dominating the Middle East?

For another example, when the various practices of President Erdogan do not accord with the United States’ wishes, the United States supports the military in Turkey to launch a coup, which will result in Erdogan’s own life. To this day, Erdogan is still demanding that the United States hand over Gulen, the organizer behind the coup. This is the retribution that the United States has been keen to pursue its own goals through assassinations, coups and other dirty means for many years.

For another example, if Turkey wants to crack down on the Kurds who split the country, it will seize every opportunity to eliminate the Kurds’ backstage in the international arena. Well, Sweden wants to join NATO this time, and Sweden happens to be one of the backers supporting the Kurds. Naturally, Turkey should make full use of this opportunity to take advantage of Sweden.

This is the fundamental reason why Turkey opposes Finland and Sweden to join NATO.

However, we have to admit that the powerful Putin has made good use of these factors, which is a very important reason.

Putin’s specific tactics were that when Erdogan shot down a Russian fighter plane and nearly became eternal hatred, Putin adopted a friendly strategy of calming down the situation, turning the big issue into a small one, and turning the small issue into a small one. After Erdogan officially apologized, he provided top secret information and saved Erdogan’s life.

In this way, Erdogan has more reason and motivation to send a favor to Russia while seeking his own national interests. Naturally, Russia will not treat it badly in the future.

We can reverse the reasoning. Russia and Turkey have had hundreds of years of gratitude and resentment. In 2015, they were shot down by Turkey for no reason. After Putin implemented the preliminary sanctions and counterattack, Erdogan still refused to apologize… At this time, if Putin is angry, angry, hostile to Turkey, or even conflict, what will happen?

Or to say the least, even though Erdogan apologized on the surface, Putin still regards Erdogan as an enemy in his bones, so he will never provide top secret information to Erdogan and save Erdogan’s life when the United States wants to murder Erdogan’s life and incite Turkish soldiers to launch a coup. On the contrary, he would be happy to see Erdogan killed by the Americans and avenge himself with one arrow.

If the story was like this, perhaps Erdogan would have died long ago, and Turkey would have been replaced by a president who listened to the American words. So, in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, can Russia still get so much support from Turkey?

From this, we find that the methods and means of national game are diverse, and fighting is essential, but not the only means. Many times, being kind to others, ignoring past grievances, and making concessions are also accumulating strength for themselves. This principle is exactly the same as how we deal with the relationship between people in our daily life.

However, today, I do not want to simply use the principles of daily life to compare state relations, because, after all, state affairs are not a trifle and require absolute reason and calm. So why do we often have to compromise and yield in national affairs?

First of all, based on the analysis I made in my last article, there are too many countries on the earth that have pursuit. Once we have pursuit, contradictions and problems will inevitably emerge in endlessly. If we compare everything with every penny and do not compromise, because there are too many contradictions and problems to be hard steel, we may end up with no retreat.

Secondly, in the endless contradictions and problems, we need to use the theory of dialectical materialism in Marxist philosophy to distinguish the primary contradiction from the secondary contradiction.

In today’s China, the contradiction between China and the United States is the main contradiction.

Because there is only one country in the world, the United States, which is not willing to accept China’s rise from the bottom of its bones and may contain China’s rise.

In other countries, either he doesn’t care. Anyway, he can’t be the boss. It’s the same as the old man. Or it is unwilling to accept China’s rise, but it has no choice, so it will not be forcefully contained.

Only the United States, because it is the world leader, cares that China has taken its place. At the same time, because he is the boss and has the strongest ability, he may have the ability to contain China.

Most of the emerging problems China is facing can be traced back to this reason.

Therefore, we should grasp this primary contradiction and put aside other secondary contradictions.

On the contrary, if this primary contradiction is solved, many secondary contradictions will disappear automatically. If we defeat the United States, many countries will naturally follow China. Without fighting with China, they will follow you.

This is the same as fighting. If you fight with a group of people, there must be a leader. If you beat the leader down, other people will not fight with you.

Many years ago, I practiced Taijiquan with my master. Although I only learned HuaQuan and embroidered legs for health preservation, it is inevitable that I would talk about real fights in my spare time.

I once asked Shifu: if I have to fight with a group of people, how should I fight?

Shifu told me: you just need to keep an eye on the leader and beat him to death. Don’t worry about others.

On June 6, 1950, the Third Plenary Session of the Seventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing. Chairman Mao delivered an important speech. Later, part of this speech was named “don’t attack from all sides”.

When analyzing the domestic situation at that time in his speech, Chairman Mao pointed out: “our relations with the national bourgeoisie were very tense. They were in a state of anxiety and dissatisfaction. The unemployed intellectuals and workers were dissatisfied with us. A small number of small handicraftsmen were also dissatisfied. Since we had not yet implemented land reform in most of the rural areas, we had to collect public grain, and the farmers were also dissatisfied.”

In the face of so many enemies and discontent, Chairman Mao warned those who were used to making a full-scale counterattack in the struggle against the enemy in the past: “don’t attack from all sides.” he also said: “it’s not good to attack from all sides. The whole country is tense. We must not make too many enemies. We must make some concessions on one side, ease up on the other, and concentrate on attacking on the other.”

Chairman Mao also said: “in order to isolate and attack the current enemy, we must turn those among the people who are dissatisfied with us into those who support us.”

Chairman Mao’s speech in that year mainly analyzed the domestic situation, but it can also be applied to the current analysis of the international situation.

At present, China is facing a grim and complex international situation. The United States is determined to kill itself. In order to isolate and attack its main enemy, the United States, we must

Those who are dissatisfied with us among the people of the world should become our supporters as far as possible.

This inevitably requires us to restrain our sharp edges, compromise and yield, find the greatest common divisor, and seek common ground while reserving differences. Don’t always fight with this and that. If we attack from all sides, we will fight with everyone. It often makes us forget who is the main enemy unconsciously, just like forgetting who is the leading opponent in a fight. It is bound to consume ourselves needlessly, and it is bound to constantly establish new enemies, so that the main enemy can enjoy himself.

Today, june17,2022, coincides with the launching of China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian. Looking at the Fujian warship slowly sailing into the sea in the music of steel torrent March, I can’t help feeling mixed. Today is the 17th. The 17th is a special day.

On September 17, 1894, 128 years ago, the Chinese Beiyang navy was completely annihilated in the Sino Japanese War of 1894. The most advanced cruiser Zhiyuan of the Beiyang navy was about to run out of ammunition and suffered heavy losses. The leader Deng Shichang ordered to rush to the flagship Matsushima of the Japanese joint fleet, ready to crash into the enemy and die with the enemy. Unfortunately, the enemy hit the torpedo launch tube, causing a torpedo explosion in the tube and sinking. 246 officers and men of the ship died. Gao Yong, a calligrapher and painter at the end of the Qing Dynasty, wrote an elegiac couplet, saying: “today, the world is full of tears, and the public is strong enough to strengthen the Navy.”.

127 years ago, on April 17, 1895, the Japanese intentionally or unintentionally chose to sign the Treaty of Shimonoseki with China on the day of April 17!

As time goes by, the sea changes. On “17 December 2019”, China’s first domestic aircraft carrier Shandong warship was listed. On June 17, 2022, Fujian, China’s third aircraft carrier and first ejection aircraft carrier, was launched.

“The 17th” witnessed China’s rise from humiliation and suffering.

Our aircraft carrier maintains world peace and protects China’s national interests. In that case, we must abide by two rules: first, we should not fight easily. As the saying goes, “when we attack the enemy, we should attack the enemy; when we attack the enemy, we should attack the enemy; when we attack the enemy, we should attack the city.” Second, it specializes in fighting strong enemies. As the saying goes, “when you draw a bow, you should draw a strong one; when you use an arrow, you should use a long one; when you shoot a man, you should shoot a horse first; when you catch a thief, you should catch a King first.”

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