Chinese style epidemic prevention is still the lowest cost epidemic prevention mode in the world!

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Author: Ming shusource: official account: Ming shuzatan wechat ID: laomingdashu


1) Recently, the epidemic situation in many parts of the country has risen again, and the pressure on epidemic prevention in China has become greater again. I have my own perception. I came back from a lecture in Dongxihu District of Wuhan at the end of August to monitor the health of the whole family for a week. It was really inconvenient. Both children missed the first day of school. Yesterday, I learned that the Wuzhen Internet Conference originally scheduled for late September was also postponed to November. In the past two days, rumors about the epidemic in Ili, Xinjiang have been fermenting on Weibo. Although many extreme information has been proved to be false, it still stimulates many people’s nerves. It has been almost three years since the epidemic appeared in early 2020. For many people, after experiencing the repeated impact of the epidemic directly or indirectly in the past three years, they are all tired, bored and even want to give up. But can we really give up epidemic prevention?

2) Many people have seen all kinds of inconvenience and losses brought by epidemic prevention, and so have I. When children of other families can go to school happily on September 1, but our children can only stay at home, I am also very depressed and even a little upset. This summer vacation, my family drove to Shanxi and Shaanxi for tourism. I was shocked to see that there were few people in Xuanhua service area. Now, many friends tell me about the inconvenience and loss caused by the epidemic. These are undeniable. However, when we complain about the inconvenience and loss caused by epidemic prevention, have we ever thought about the results if we give up epidemic prevention, like the United States, Britain and Japan? If we choose to “lie flat”, we can restore everything to the state before the epidemic. We should eat and drink. Why don’t we choose to “lie flat”? The Chinese are neither stupid nor stupid. Why do we have to deal with ourselves? Ask yourself, have you ever thought about this? I tell you, I have thought about it, and I have thought about it ten thousand times. However, no matter how I assume and infer, as long as I respect basic science, data and facts, my conclusion is that if China chooses to “lie flat”, the consequences will be unimaginable.

3) If we are in Beijing now and just complain that we need to do nucleic acid testing every few days and scan the code with health care treasure everywhere, if Beijing completely liberalizes, we will face a far more terrible situation. Let me take the epidemic situation in Japan as an example to make some rough predictions. Japan is currently experiencing the worst epidemic situation in three years. Since late June, the epidemic in Japan has shown an explosive increase, with the highest number of infections exceeding 260000 per day. Up to now, Japan’s seven day average number of infections still exceeds 110000, and the seven day average number of deaths is 267. Japan has a population of 126 million and Beijing has a population of 22 million. The former is about six times that of the latter. According to rough calculation, if we “lie flat”, at the peak of the epidemic in Beijing, the average number of daily infections will be more than 40000 and the number of deaths will be more than 40. It does not seem too terrible. However, behind the death toll of more than 40, there are at least hundreds of severe and critical illness cases and tens of thousands of people with obvious fever and other symptoms. Because we have to take minimum isolation and other epidemic prevention measures, such figures can easily destroy Beijing’s infectious disease prevention and control system. At that time, our complaint was that our child had a fever of more than 40 degrees, but there was no hospital to receive treatment, and it was useless for me to hold the child outside the hospital or in the corridor to plead; My old man is seriously ill and his life is in danger, but I can’t call an ambulance and there is no hospital to admit him. It’s useless for me to plead, complain and curse; Our office has never been able to be full, because every day there are colleagues with positive nucleic acid tests, and they have to isolate at home; Our factory will never be able to operate at full capacity, because every day there are employees who are absent from work because of covid-19 infection… How can this situation be extended to the whole country? China has a population of more than 1.4 billion. Even if all the less densely populated rural population are excluded, the urban population is 900 million, which is about eight times that of Japan. At the peak of the epidemic, China’s daily infections will exceed 1 million and the daily deaths will exceed 2000. For those who want to be completely free, have you thought about this result? Can you really accept this result? At that time, how will the western media viciously attack China? How will the public at home and abroad, who hate the KMT, go crazy? What a devastating force will the suffering, disappointment and anger of the 1.4 billion people be brought together?


4) Many people will say that people will die if epidemic prevention is not carried out, and epidemic prevention has also caused many abnormal deaths. Indeed, in some places, when there is an epidemic, due to inadequate epidemic prevention measures, some people, such as the elderly and pregnant women, face difficulties in seeking medical treatment, and even some tragedies have occurred. We must say that there are too many such vicious cases, and every one should be seriously held accountable. However, let’s think about it with common sense. How many malignant cases are there? In the past two days, there was a rumor that an old man in Ili, Xinjiang hanged himself because of hunger, which was finally proved to be a rumor. Let me just briefly talk about the situation in China and the United States. In the past three years of the epidemic, 1.05 million people have died in the United States, and the life expectancy of the United States has declined. This is the result of the failure of epidemic prevention. However, over the past three years, China’s life expectancy has increased. If China really causes many people to die abnormally due to epidemic prevention, China should also be like the United States, right? Those who open their mouths and say that epidemic prevention has killed people, ask yourself, how many such examples are there around you? How much real data do you have? Patting the head can not produce a true sense of justice. Judgment based on science, data and facts is a responsible choice.

5) Two days ago, the chief economist of a securities company released a research report, believing that the harm of the latest novel coronavirus mutant strain is close to the flu. I don’t want to go into details. I just want to ask: should we listen to the so-called macroeconomists, virus experts and epidemic prevention experts in epidemic prevention? Who is more reliable? Isn’t the answer self-evident?

6) According to some rough estimates, Beijing spends 10 billion yuan on nucleic acid production a year. This figure is indeed not small, but Beijing’s annual GDP is 4 trillion. If we choose to “lie flat”, let’s not say that tens of thousands of people will die in Beijing every year. Even if the GDP growth rate is reduced by one percentage point due to the uncontrolled epidemic, the loss will be 40 billion. Is it difficult to figure out this account?

7) As a rational person, when we complain about the inconvenience and loss caused by epidemic prevention measures, we must think clearly. This has never been a decision of “China will become extremely beautiful immediately after canceling all epidemic prevention measures”. If so, do we still have to persevere? It is precisely because “if all epidemic prevention measures are cancelled, we will face the result of the epidemic getting out of control, heavy casualties, and a sharp economic decline”. We have to persevere for three years, which is the real value of China’s fight against the epidemic.

8) Many people are asking when the epidemic will end? When can epidemic prevention measures be cancelled? It is natural that epidemic prevention measures are constantly adjusted according to the changes of the epidemic situation, but in the short term, China is unlikely to completely cancel epidemic prevention measures, but China can try to keep the social and economic costs brought by epidemic prevention at a low level. Here, we must attach importance to the “Beijing experience”. From late April to late June this year, Beijing was hit by the epidemic. Most of the time, our family did nucleic acid every day for more than ten consecutive days. However, Beijing did not “close the city”, and all the materials I prepared in advance did not work. When the epidemic was at its worst, our family could not go to the movies, shopping malls or dinner parties, but that was all. In addition, our lives have not been greatly affected. This is an ideal epidemic prevention model. “Closure”, “Silence” and “static management” are too costly. How to avoid it? The key is to be “fast”. Detection, flow regulation and sealing control shall be fast. Only in this way can we let epidemic prevention run ahead of the virus and avoid the step of “closing the city”. The “Beijing experience” is the experience that all parts of the country should learn from.

9) Many people are saying that epidemic prevention is a one size fits all problem. I came back from Dongxihu District of Wuhan at the end of August. I did not visit any medium and high-risk areas, nor did I have any contact with patients, close contacts or sub close contacts. But my family still monitored their health at home for a week. To be honest, I also had complaints at that time and felt that it was meaningless to do so. However, later I also figured out that the current regulations in Beijing are that as long as people come back from counties, districts and cities where cases have recently occurred, they must have health monitoring at home. Maybe most people will be fine in the end, but if something really happens, wouldn’t it also minimize the risk? If thousands or tens of thousands of people are affected every day, but the risk of the epidemic faced by 22 million people in Beijing is indeed reduced in the end, this inconvenience and sacrifice are also worth it. If you are unlucky enough to have to stay at home and isolate, you’d better cooperate fully. I have always said that the epidemic is a war in peacetime. There is no choice of zero cost and zero cost, only the choice with the lowest comprehensive cost and cost.

10) For any place in the country, the vicious events that occurred in the process of epidemic prevention in Xi’an, Shanghai and other places should not happen again. Among them, the most crucial is that no hospital should refuse critical and urgent patients, including pregnant women, during the epidemic. Many hospitals have invented that an isolation area should be set outside the emergency area. If the nucleic acid result of a patient does not come out, the patient should be rescued in the isolation area first. It is not allowed to reject the patient because there is no nucleic acid result. In addition, no place should have major problems in feeding the people because of the “closure of the city”. My personal suggestions are: first, summarize all kinds of emergency operation methods and processes under epidemic prevention. No matter whether there is an epidemic or not, all parts of the country should do a good job in the plan, and do not cram into it temporarily; Second, if the experience and lessons are already very obvious, in any place, hospitals refuse to accept critically ill patients and mothers during the epidemic prevention period, and eventually lead to malignant consequences, the first leader of the hospital will be directly removed from his post. If there are places where ordinary people can’t even eat during the epidemic prevention period, the local first leader will be directly held accountable.

Epidemic prevention also requires seeking truth from facts. Solve problems if there are problems, and make epidemic prevention more scientific and effective. However, although we complain about the inconvenience and losses caused by epidemic prevention, we must explore this issue based on science, data and rationality, rather than throwing ourselves into the open at the stroke of the head. Once epidemic prevention fails, the consequences will be irreversible. We should all be well aware of this.

I read the epidemic data and economic data of countries around the world almost every day. I am still very confident that the Chinese style anti epidemic model is the one with the lowest comprehensive cost and cost in the world. You may not believe me, but you cannot deny science, data and facts.

Many years later, mankind will make a more comprehensive summary of the epidemic, and at that time, we will see it more clearly.

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