Source: Li Jianqiu’s world (id:lijianqiudeshijie)
Seeing the 9.1% CPI of the United States, I rushed all the way to the era of Volcker. In the past two years, I watched the CPI of the United States rise slowly. I still remember the years before the epidemic, when the United States was furious because of deflation and thought that “the Chinese robbed American jobs”. Now, the employment rate rose slowly, and CPI also rose slowly. The heroic words of a few years ago have long been forgotten.
In this regard, the situation in the United States is the best among many developed countries. The Japanese debt and the yen can’t survive. On the other hand, former Prime Minister Abe was also assassinated, and the yen broke 139 directly on the 14th.
The European Union is no better. In addition to the deficit of Germany and the innovation of the euro, it has basically had a 1:1 relationship with the US dollar. The government of Draghi in Italy is also on the verge of collapse. The political party of the five-star movement has threatened to withdraw from the government and issued an ultimatum to Draghi, demanding that Draghi make concessions to the minimum wage, increase budget expenditure, welfare funds and green housing conversion incentive policies.
Generally, economic problems will only trigger crises, but it is often political problems that trigger them.
Recently, there was an episode in the Russian Ukrainian war. North Korea recognized the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk and severed diplomatic ties with Ukraine and North Korea.
North Korea is an interesting country. The South Korean economy surpassed North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s. The main problem was that North Korea could not get supplies from the Soviet Union. Later, the Soviet Union became more and more depressed, and North Korea couldn’t follow.
At present, North Korea is subject to great financial sanctions, coupled with the lack of oil, so many machines can’t operate, but North Korea is rich in coal. A few years ago, I heard that North Korea uses coal to drive machinery, and Russia may lack everything else, except oil and food.
Russia is short of people to develop, and North Korea is full of people. Even without military cooperation, Russia has a large area of land that has not been developed. If both sides are willing, North Korea will provide manpower, Russia will provide land and machinery to reclaim Russian land. Russia has effectively used land, and North Korea will obtain food and fuel.
If Russia wants to make some foreign exchange, it can grow soybeans for export, which is also a good deal. Someone must buy it.
One thing is particularly strange, according to the global famine index:
North Korea looks stronger than India. North Korea was sanctioned, and India was not sanctioned.
I can see superpower India and so on in various Indian media. It’s strange to say that this superpower is also very strange. It’s also different in the English Circle: is India the next China?
The first richest man in Asia is Indian Ambani, and the second richest man is Indian Adani. There are countless hungry people in the country, and the country is still selling food outside.
Many people talk about Indians’ taboo, but look up, there is a minibus on it. Indians are taboo, Muslims are not taboo?
It can only be said that India is incredible.
Everyone’s economy is poor, and China’s economy is not as good as there.
In fact, as early as June 29, the central bank issued a Q2 questionnaire, which showed that residents’ willingness to save rose sharply, while residents’ actual consumption willingness and consumption ability were still under pressure. Residents’ willingness to invest hit a record low, their willingness to buy houses and future house price expectations fell, entrepreneurs’ macroeconomic heat index and business climate index fell sharply, enterprises’ confidence was insufficient, loan withdrawal index and capital turnover index fell, and commodity sales price index fell, The purchase price of raw materials has risen, and the actual business situation is not optimistic.
Export orders of enterprises have improved slightly, exports are still resilient, domestic demand continues to weaken, the loan demand index has declined significantly, and insufficient credit demand is a big problem, so downward pressure has always existed.
As the demand is still relatively weak, the current 7-day 3billion yuan reverse repurchase operation does not represent a shift in monetary policy, but there is a problem of capital idling. The reduction and drainage may be to combat capital idling.
When can we see improvement? Very simple, go to dr007. Last year, dr007 was generally above 2.2, but now it is only about 1.55.
Dr007 refers to the 7-day repo rate pledged by interest rate bonds by deposit institutions in the inter-bank market. When dr007 rises and when will there be a shift in monetary policy? According to the current situation, it is not impossible to reduce interest rates and reserve requirements again.
In addition, let’s mention why the central bank now has only 3billion reverse repos, mainly to combat the rolling of overnight leveraged loans.
It’s like this: institutions usually take the measure of pledging their bonds to other institutions to borrow low-cost short-term funds mainly based on overnight repo. After the overnight funds expire, they pledge the bonds to borrow the next overnight funds to repay the previous funds. For institutions, there will be new maturing funds every day, so as to earn the spread between bond coupon and capital cost. Many institutions use leverage on this to arbitrage.
If the leverage ratio is too high, it will lead to the difficulty of institutional liquidity management. If the market liquidity volatility increases, once the liquidity is tightened and the market interest rate rises, it may increase the market vulnerability.
Therefore, the central bank has now changed from 10billion reverse repos to 3billion, mainly to warn these overnight leveraged institutions not to play too much.
Go to hell
Compared with the vigorous competition between the United States and the Soviet Union in the last century, people who watched it were very impressive. Today’s satellite launch, tomorrow’s human flight to heaven, and the day after tomorrow’s race to the moon, all kinds of technological breakthroughs emerged in endlessly.
Even without considering the breakthrough of military technology, it is only related to our daily life:
Dehydrated vegetable snacks are a product of the Apollo program
Air blow molding technology, developed by NASA, is now used for air cushioned uppers of sports shoes
The sensor system that monitored astronauts later became an intensive care unit.
The technology of digital image processing to enhance the details of photos of the lunar surface is also used in medicine to deal with the human impact caused by NMR
Photovoltaic technology is actually aerospace technology, which lays the foundation for today’s photovoltaic energy.
Even the Internet used in my article is a product of the cold war. The Internet was originally used for military purposes, but it was not gradually used for civilian purposes until 83. Without the cold war, many technologies do not exist today.
Now, let’s look at the meta universe and virtual currency… Is this what we leave to future generations?
In the past two strong competition, you deployed nuclear weapons in Turkey, and I deployed nuclear weapons in Cuba.
Now the two strong competition: raising tariffs on each other.
The heroic words of the past: Khrushchev said, we will bury you.
Now the heroic words: meeting to condemn, meeting to condemn, the third meeting to condemn, DengZi, how many meetings have you held in two years, remember?
This is our age from mediocrity to boredom. No longer use large-scale scientific and technological investment, no longer use the soul stirring struggle for hegemony, and the only thing left is to be bored to the extreme, to each other, hoping for a wave of dividends after the other party falls.
In 1969, NASA sent humans to the moon with 4KB memory.
In 2022, you were watching me boast about X with your 16g memory mobile phone.