Crazy interest rate increase + global financial massacre under the new crown 5.0 combo!

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The article was originally created by the “blood drink” official account. Wechat: caojianming1989

According to Xinhua news agency, on June 15 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point increase in interest rates, raising the target range of the federal funds rate to between 1.5% and 1.75%. This is the largest single interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve since 1994, showing control

The urgency of inflation.

[murderous thoughts pervade in the thick fog]

Before the current round of fed interest rate hikes, I analyzed in a series of articles that the United States will tighten liquidity and launch the policy of raising interest rates with low oil prices and a strong dollar. In particular, the article “Sino US startling secret war behind the Russian Ukrainian war” released on February 15 this year accurately predicted that the United States will start a crazy interest rate hike mode after the oil prices and other major items in the Russian Ukrainian war reach the historical peak.

Although I judged in advance that the long trend has been exhausted, the mainstream market still believes that the long trend remains unchanged. Even after the first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve on May 4 has sounded the financial alarm, a large number of funds are still going long. Until June 15, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time, with a range as high as 1.5 times that of the first, which caught the whole world unprepared. The global financial market suddenly fell into chaos, the US Jones index fell below 30000 points, oil, iron ore and other major falls, and the Japanese government bonds triggered two fusions for the first time. On the 18th three days later, bitcoin fell to $18000 and Ethereum fell below $1000.

The Fed’s interest rate hike should have been a super heavyweight event in the financial sector this year. Why did this violent operation make the whole market so panicked? This is because the Federal Reserve adopted a low-key mode of sneaking into the night with the wind in this round of interest rate hike, which did not fall into a long-term quarrel and aroused widespread global attention. At the same time, under the background of the first round of interest rate hike, the bulk market did not fall significantly due to the stimulation of the Russian Ukrainian war. Such a mode of boiling frogs in warm water, coupled with the previous unlimited QE policy of the Federal Reserve, led many people to mistakenly believe that the United States would not really have a rapid interest rate hike. Therefore, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time, the market reaction was relatively flat. Many people took it for granted that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike was just an act. Even Wall Street financial institutions released a message in early June that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike would be suspended in an attempt to hide people’s eyes and ears. The situation made many people continue to go long.

Therefore, if we can’t uncover the veil of the financial massacre on Wall Street and see the true intention of the Federal Reserve, we must pay a price for belittling the enemy! On June 18, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates violently again, directly killing the bulls in the bulk, bitcoin and treasury bond markets.


[where will the US interest rate hike go]

In my article “Ukraine is doomed! The United States is about to rob the world of finance” published on March 18 this year, I not only accurately predicted that the Federal Reserve will inevitably raise interest rates, but also accurately judged that the Federal Reserve will continue to shrink dollar liquidity through continuous interest rate hikes, copying the path of interest rate hikes from 1980 to 1986, and starting a financial harvest model that will completely collapse the global economy.

From the past to the present, from 1980 to 1986, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 22%, accumulating 2200 basis points. In the end, it not only defeated the Soviet Union with low oil prices, defeated Germany and Japan, the two most powerful rivals in the west, but also looted almost all countries in the world, including Southeast Asia and Latin America.

Now, the United States is replicating this process. After the second interest rate hike on the 15th of this round, officials of the Federal Reserve have stated that they will continue to raise interest rates. In particular, Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, said on June 18 that he would support another substantial interest rate hike next month. Philipmar, a senior strategist at Rabobank who studies the US economy, said that in the future, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75, 75, 50, 50 and 50 basis points respectively, and the federal funds rate can reach 3.5%-4.00% as soon as December. At this rate, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 425 basis points this year. From 1980 to 1986, the US raised interest rates by 2200 basis points, an average of 360 basis points per year. It can be seen from the comparison between the two phases that the rate hike of the Federal Reserve in 2022 has exceeded this average value.

If the Federal Reserve completely reproduces the global financial looting routine from 1980 to 1986, it will hit the global economy again 40 years after the last financial looting.

From the unlimited QE release liquidity in march2020 to the interest rate hike and tightening liquidity on may4,2022, I predicted this monetary policy shift of the Federal Reserve as early as the end of 2020, and took the lead in warning that “bitcoin will reach its peak in April 2021” in the knowledge planet on december29,2020.


Sure enough, bitcoin reached the first high of $64800 on April 14, and it plummeted from $64800 to $18000 now, a drop of more than 70%. The market trend of this year and a half has proved that my judgment on bitcoin is ahead of schedule and accurate. At the same time, what I want to say here is that it is not surprising that bitcoin will fall below 10000 in the future. As for when the next window for long bitcoin will open, I will continue to give clear tips in the knowledge planet.

[double strike of whip reverse effect]

After the U.S. monetary policy from easing to interest rate hike tightening, a large number of commodities lost support and eventually led to a sharp drop in prices, which formed a bullwhip reverse effect on purchasing and suppliers. They will not only encounter a sharp decline in futures prices, but also suffer a continuous decline after the expiration of the spot. Therefore, under the back of the decline in futures prices and the decline in spot sales, they will suffer a double blow, and the losses will be enormous.

How does this whip reverse effect come into being?

This involves the concept I mentioned earlier – QE passivation!

In the process of lowering the consumption ceiling, under the background of sluggish consumption, the consumption of bulk products and end products can decline instead of increase. In 2003, the unlimited QE launched by the United States gave birth to a large artificial bull market. However, under the combined attack of the epidemic and super inflation, the global consumption did not actually increase. The so-called global economic growth was better than in the past. It was only because the bulk price rise led to an increase in sales, but the volume and energy did not increase. We know that only a simultaneous rise in volume and price can support the continued rise in prices. Therefore, the phenomenon of rising bulk prices and shrinking final consumption volume under the artificial bull market will eventually be unsustainable.

Now the Fed’s interest rate hike and liquidity tightening have brought about a policy bullwhip turn, leading to the loss of liquidity support for the bulk, while the synchronous volume and energy are shrinking, which will inevitably lead to both volume and price declines. It can be predicted that the future will inevitably lead to a continuous slump.

The two sharp edges of the sharp decline of futures and spot will eventually greatly hit the real manufacturing industry, bring about the decline of the real manufacturing industry, and then bring about the further shrinkage of the volume energy, which will lead to the decline of income. Therefore, consumption will further shrink, and the volume and price will continue to fall further, and finally form the transformation from the current super inflation to the future super deflation.

Under the background of super deflation, the currencies of other countries will inevitably plummet, and the US dollar index will further rise. Under the background of the drastic interest rate hike policy, the US dollar index is expected to exceed 110 or even 120, and then global capital will flee to the United States to avoid risks, and the global market will fall into a pool of blood! This is the internal logic of the impact of the US interest rate hike on the global economy!

[Japanese financial market was bloodbath]

The low oil price + strong dollar policy brought about by the monetary policy shift of the Federal Reserve began to show great power after the second interest rate hike, and Japan was the first to fall in a pool of blood!

On June 15, Japan’s 10-year Treasury bond futures plummeted by 2.01 yen, the largest one-day decline since 2013, and twice triggered the circuit breaker mechanism of Osaka stock exchange.

Why did Japan’s national debt get blown?

After the new Japanese prime minister took office, the yen, the golden right hand, began to depreciate in line with the U.S. interest rate increase strategy, and the dollar depreciated from 100 to 135 against the yen. The devaluation of the yen triggered the devaluation of the currencies of South Korea and China, which is Japan’s cooperation with the United States, because China, Japan and South Korea are both major exporters. The devaluation of the yen promotes exports, passively pulls China and South Korea into the water, and the sharp increase in exports leads to a relative decline in prices, combating inflation and helping to raise the dollar index.

However, compared with the depreciation of the yen and the 0.25% fixed interest rate in Japan, the strength of the US dollar and the rise of the interest rate to 4%, it is obvious that the yield of the US dollar and investment in US Treasury bonds is more attractive. In the Abe era, for the international hot money led by Wall Street, when the U.S. dollar was strong or even negative interest rates, the freely convertible Japanese financial environment was the best safe haven currency for the U.S. dollar to enter Japan. However, with the turn of monetary policy, a large number of capital will flee from Japan, attracted by the appreciation of the U.S. dollar and the rise of U.S. interest rates. Naturally, the Japanese treasury bond, which was originally the most effective hedge, will be sold off. This led to a rare fusing of Japanese government bonds! As for the short selling of Japanese government bonds by US hedge funds, it is expected.

Is this the end? no Worse things are still to come! The Bank of Japan will be in a dilemma!

Faced with the flight of international capital and the selling of basic treasury bonds, the Japanese government has only two ways, either to continue unlimited QE or to increase interest rates with the Federal Reserve. If Japan chooses to start unlimited QE large-scale purchase, although it can temporarily alleviate the crisis, the more the Bank of Japan purchases, the less treasury bonds in the market will be. In this way, the bond market will fall into liquidity exhaustion, which will inevitably lead to the collapse of the bond market; On the other hand, if the Bank of Japan chooses to follow the US interest rate hike, the interest rate on the national debt, which has exceeded twice Japan’s GDP, will soar. The Japanese government originally wanted to reduce the interest expenditure by lowering the QE interest rate to 0.25%. If it followed the US interest rate hike by 75 basis points, Japan would pay an additional $75billion in interest. What is this concept? Japan’s GDP in 2021 increased by US $85billion over 2020, which will almost eat up Japan’s annual economic growth. That is to say, if Japan follows the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 425 basis points this year, the interest paid by Japan will exceed 425billion US dollars. Minus Japan’s trade surplus, Japan will have a fiscal black hole of 400billion US dollars every year. Obviously, the BoJ can not keep up with the US interest rate hike. Therefore, it can only continue QE indefinitely. As long as QE, the yen will inevitably continue to depreciate. Wall Street and other international capital saw that the BoJ did not dare to raise interest rates, so they firmly sold Japanese government bonds and short the yen.

In this regard, I would like to say that the bitch is really hypocritical! Before the ampere era, Japan, a bitch, had relatively relaxed relations with China, and the yen appreciated all the way to 90. Now the new anti China prime minister came to power and knelt down to lick the United States, cooperating with the U!


[Europe is still doomed]

Like Japan, Europe has also been shorted by the United States. On June 19, the world’s largest hedge fund bridge with assets of US $151billion bet US $5.7 billion to short the European stock market, opening the comprehensive short European model of Wall Street.

The reason why Wall Street short Europe is the same logic as short Japan, because the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are in a dilemma. After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, Europe has indicated that it will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July and again in September this year. Tougher than Japan, Europe chose to raise interest rates. However, the problems faced by Europe and Japan are the same. This year, the Federal Reserve sharply raised interest rates by 425 basis points to 3.5-4%, and Europe can’t keep up.

Under the impact of the Russian Ukrainian war, European manufacturing enterprises were plagued by a shortage of raw materials. They had not started enough. Now the rise in interest rates will hit the real manufacturing industry. At the same time, due to the rise of US interest rates, capital will hedge against US dollars, which will also affect the stability of the European bond market, and the impact of bond market financing will inevitably hit the stock market; If Europe chooses to cut interest rate QE, the euro will inevitably depreciate.

Geopolitically, the European debt crisis broke out in July 2014, directly because Europe lost to Russia on the Crimea issue. Geopolitical failure led to the flight of European capital, which led to currency devaluation and triggered the European debt crisis. Now, there is no suspense about Russia’s settlement of Ukraine. Europe will face a new crisis. Under the joint attack of geography and finance, the devaluation of the euro will inevitably detonate the gambling agreement between Wall Street and the five European pig countries again, and directly detonate the European debt crisis 3.0.

For Wall Street, no matter what strategy Europe adopts, it will eventually encounter capital flight and crisis outbreak, which is a situation of two blockages. It is precisely because Wall Street has seen this that it will fully short Europe, because technically, Europe’s two blockages also exist. Under the European debt crisis, if Germany does not help the five European pig countries, Wall Street can also transfer the crisis of the five European pig countries to Germany through CDs (credit default swap) purchased in Germany, so that Germany can directly bear the losses of the five European pig countries’ credit default. In this way, Germany can only bow its head and rescue the five European pig countries, and the German taxpayer’s money will flow directly into the pockets of Wall Street.

Summing up that Japan and the European Central Bank have encountered two blockages, we can find that the fierce interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is a barrier that they cannot break through. It is just like that the United States continues to raise interest rates or even directly all in at the gambling table, while Japan and Europe can’t keep up, so they can only throw away their cards and admit defeat. The first stage of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike is until next June. If the effect is satisfactory, the United States will start the second and third stages of sustained and rapid interest rate hikes. Japan and Europe can only become lambs to be slaughtered without any room for resistance.

[China under violent interest rate hikes]

In 2013, the Federal Reserve began to openly discuss interest rate hikes. The input deflation brought about by the sharp fall in oil prices directly shot down China’s property market. On October 30, 2014, the Federal Reserve announced that it would withdraw from QE, and the market again strengthened the expectation of interest rate hikes. After that, China’s property market ushered in a two-year decline, and did not start to recover until 2016.

In terms of the stock market, on Friday, june12,2015, Guotai Junan was listed, and the Chinese stock market reached the highest point of 5178 in the past decade. The next day is a special day. At two o’clock in the morning of June 14, the Federal Reserve meeting once again strengthened the expectation of inevitable interest rate hike in the year. After the opening of the stock market on June 15, the stock market plummeted all the way. China ushered in a stock disaster of 1.0, and the market fell from 5178 to 2870. On December 16 of that year, the Federal Reserve announced another interest rate hike in the early morning, and then China ushered in the most terrible stock market crash 2.0 that contained a circuit breaker. Before the two stock market disasters, I gave clear instructions to leave. At that time, the judgment was based on the fact that the Fed’s interest rate hike would draw funds from China and trigger market fluctuations.

Until now, this influence still exists. In the middle of December 2021, the Federal Reserve again released the signal of interest rate increase, and as a result, the stock market fell to about 2800 points from 3700 in the middle of December. Like the decline in 2015, the process of this slump is also caused by the expectation of interest rate hike. According to the same logic, in the article titled “why the stock market always rises at the end of the year” published on my microblog on December 13, I reminded everyone to pay attention to risks and be sure to choose to escape at 3700.

In terms of the real estate market, careful observation of the real estate trend will reveal that the national real estate market has gradually cooled down since December 2021. I also made a clear prediction in advance on the knowledge planet that the purchase restrictions in various regions will be liberalized. After that, Harbin, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Suzhou and other places successively issued policies to relax the sale and purchase restrictions, which are naturally aimed at stabilizing the real estate market. During this period, the average price of houses nationwide dropped from 9800 to about 9600 per square meter, which is the most direct manifestation.

In terms of exchange rate, as I predicted before, the RMB began to depreciate under the expectation of interest rate increase, from 6.3 to the lowest 6.8. In addition to the depreciation of the yen, the internal logic of depreciation is another important reason for the slowdown of real estate and the decline of household consumption under the expectation of interest rate hike. The country can only use the depreciation of the RMB to promote import and export to drive the economy. Of course, the depreciation of the RMB is still a damper, and everything can be controlled.

At present, the core of the problems encountered by China’s economy, like the United States, is caused by QE passivation. The last stage of QE passivation is QE sharpening, and the next stage is QE flattening. The strong stimulus effect brought about by the 4trillion yuan in 2008 is the sharpening of QE. Now, the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates and even the release of a large number of loans have little effect, which is the passivation of QE. If we can not reverse it quickly, we will inevitably usher in QE flattening.

Since the second half of 2013 and the end of 2021, the Federal Reserve has only continuously raised interest rates. This expectation has had a great impact on China’s economy. It can be seen that in addition to the passivation of QE, another important reason is the same as the problems encountered by the European and Japanese central banks, that is, the strengthening of the US dollar + capital flight caused by the expansion of the interest rate gap between China and the United States and the change in market expectations.

At present, the most attractive and risk averse of China’s four major banks are treasury bonds and certificates of deposit. The interest rate of the latest treasury bond is 3.35 for the three-year term and 3.25% for the certificate of deposit. Once the Federal Reserve raises interest rates violently this year, it will be able to raise the interest rate to 3.5-4% by the end of the year. With interest rates alone, China has been left behind by the United States. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates for several years, not only will the interest rate gap between China and the United States further expand, but also the appreciation of the dollar will lead to the depreciation of the RMB, which will also attract some domestic people to buy dollars. Under the dual pressure, Chinese capital flight will become more and more serious, not to mention that the epidemic has led many people to transfer their wealth to Europe and the United States.

To sum up, the strengthening of the US dollar and the widening interest rate spread caused by the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike will greatly hit major economies such as China, Europe and Japan, with a very far-reaching impact. At present, the understanding of interest rate hike in the domestic financial market is still one-sided. If it cannot be completely corrected and measures can be formulated in time, it will inevitably fall into a double kill situation.


[will interest rate hike lead to us economic recession]

Speaking of this, many people will have a new question. The US Treasury bond has been upside down under the expectation of raising interest rates. Is it true that the Federal Reserve is not afraid? Why insist on raising interest rates if you are afraid?

First, the Fed does fear a yield inversion.

On June 13, two days before the interest rate hike, the yields of us two-year Treasury bonds and 10-year Treasury bonds were inverted. In my article “upside down of U.S. bond yields, countdown to the great turmoil in the global financial market” published on April 2, 2019, I predicted that the United States would usher in a financial helium flash in the next 12 months. Sure enough, in March 2020, the last month of the 12 months, U.S. stocks experienced several sharp falls. I was able to predict the US stock market crisis one year in advance, based on the upside down of treasury bond yields.

The upside down in march2019 led the Federal Reserve to carry out the most dangerous stock and bond swap in history. At that time, the United States used the fear of the epidemic to introduce the liquidity violence of U.S. stocks into the U.S. bond market. At the same time, it secretly opened QE, and finally pressed the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds to 0.8%, hitting U.S. stocks at 18000 points and pulling them up again, thus avoiding the overall collapse of the financial system.

If there were no upside down of treasury bond yields, the United States would not need such a difficult financial operation. So, of course, the Fed is afraid of treasury bond yield inversion.

So, since we are afraid, why do we have to raise interest rates so violently two days after the upside down? Is the United States not afraid of raising interest rates leading to an overall economic recession?

There are two reasons. First of all, the United States printed more than $8trillion in unlimited QE in march2020. With this big ammunition, the Federal Reserve has the confidence to intervene in the market at any time and inject liquidity directly into the bond market if it can not. The second reason is that the Fed’s interest rate increase can curb stock market speculation and promote the flow of stock market funds to the bond market again, so as to realize the second stock bond position adjustment.

In March, 2020, with the cooperation of Saudi Arabia, the oil price was hit to a negative value, and then the dollar strengthened. Under the low oil price + strong dollar, the United States was able to finally complete the stock bond position adjustment. Now the United States is just going to repeat the routine of March, 2020. Only by pumping the speculative capital from the stock market and the bulk market into the bond market capital pool can we resolve the liquidity depletion caused by the upside down of the bond market.

As for the fear that the US economy will fall into recession, it is unlikely to happen as long as the stock bond swap is completed. From 1980 to 1986, the continuous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve would lead to the stock market crash in the United States in 1987, and the U.S. stock market almost collapsed. The Federal Reserve was ready to use SDR to replace the U.S. dollar. However, at the last moment of downtime and overload, the United States successfully injected most of the stock market liquidity into the bond market. If the United States was reborn after the stock bond swap, it soon defeated Japan and Germany in 1986, defeated the Soviet Union in 1992, and then sacked Southeast Asia and Gaoyun city in 1997, And all over the world, including Latin America. Therefore, the Chinese financial sector must not be influenced by the concept of lying down and winning, thinking that the strong enemy is about to explode and die, and that victory is about to come naturally in the face of the rising sun.


[gratitude and resentment between the Democratic Party and Saudi Arabia]

At this point, new problems have emerged. The most important element of the interest rate increase strategy is low oil price. However, after the war between Russia and Ukraine, Biden called Saudi Arabia but was refused. Later, Biden directly issued the nopec act to sanction oil producing countries including Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia remained unmoved. At present, the contradiction between Saudi Arabia and Biden is getting worse and worse, and Biden is almost tearing his face. Biden even offered the kasuji incident to prepare for the extreme threat to the crown prince of Saudi Arabia.

In march2020, Saudi Arabia cooperated with trump to suppress oil prices and realized stock bond position adjustment. So why is Saudi Arabia unwilling to cooperate with Biden? At the same time, why does Biden want to beat down the oil price even if he breaks his face with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia?

Biden’s Democratic Party and Saudi Arabia are full of contradictions on many issues. These contradictions mainly focus on three issues, including 9 / 11 terrorism, the war in Yemen and the killing of kasuji. First, on april17,2016, Obama allowed the victims of September 11th in the United States to sue the Saudi government for compensation, which led to fierce opposition from Saudi Arabia and even threatened to sell $750billion of assets to punish the United States. Second, after the war in Yemen started in March 2015, Democratic senators began to fiercely criticize the bombing of Yemeni civilians by Saudi led coalition forces. Third, in October, 2018, kasuji, a journalist of the Washington Post and a Saudi citizen of the pro democracy media, was dismembered by crown prince Salman in Istanbul, Turkey. The Democratic Party criticized Saudi Arabia openly and wantonly, making a lot of noise in the United States. Crown prince Salman was also labeled as “Mr. bone saw”. Relations between the Democratic Party and Saudi Arabia have dropped to the historical freezing point.

The Democratic Party’s attack on Saudi Arabia on the three issues is not for justice, but to seize Saudi Arabia and threaten Saudi Arabia to cooperate with the United States in oil policy. In terms of faith, the Democratic Party, which advocates Neo liberalism, does not look down on Saudi Arabia, which is absolutely conservative. On the Middle East issue, the Democratic Party Favors Iran on the Iranian nuclear agreement, Palestine and other issues; Economically, the Democratic Party advocates new energy. Iran has the largest natural gas reserves in the world, which is completely consistent with the Democratic Party’s positions on shale gas clean energy and climate convention. Therefore, the Democratic Party is willing to sign the Iranian nuclear agreement with Iran.

However, unlike the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, which advocates Neoconservatism and old oil energy, fully supports Saudi Arabia. With Trump’s support, the kashuji incident was finally muddled through, and Saudi Arabia reciprocated by announcing a large-scale production increase, cooperating with the Republicans to suppress oil prices, and helping trump complete the position adjustment of century stocks and bonds. In terms of energy, trump advocates old energy such as coal and oil, which runs counter to the Democratic Party’s concepts of new energy and carbon neutrality. At first, Saudi Arabia attacked Yemen in order to control the maritime oil route in the Middle East, but the Democratic Party was not impressed. Therefore, the democratic party opposed Saudi Arabia’s attack on Yemen.

It is precisely because of different ideas and interests that the Democratic Party and Saudi Arabia have been in constant friction. Under the banner of the Democratic Party’s emphasis on political correctness, Biden and others dare not make mistakes in the political direction involving white left. Therefore, Biden has not forgotten to mention kasuji when he said that he would visit Saudi Arabia recently. The Democratic Party’s idea is still to lower Saudi Arabia’s head under political correctness, while Saudi Arabia is a country with strong national self-esteem, Saudi Arabia has lost face through public slander rather than private negotiation. In this case, Saudi Arabia will not give in, and it is natural to refuse to answer the phone.

The subtext of Saudi Arabia’s refusal to answer Biden’s phone call to the United States is that Saudi Arabia no longer expects Biden to give up embarrassing Saudi Arabia on three issues. Saudi Arabia’s next goal is to hope that in the November election this year, the Republican Party led by trump, who is pro Saudi Arabia, can win the mid-term election. After Biden is put on the back burner, the US Middle East policy will be more inclined to Saudi Arabia, that is, Saudi Arabia has been considering the post Biden era.

[Turkey draws from the bottom]

Just when Biden and Saudi Arabia had a fierce confrontation, another country stepped in and turned Biden’s chips into chicken ribs. This country is Turkey.

On April 28, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Saudi Arabia. The media in the Middle East commented that the two regional powers bypassed the United States for the first time to directly negotiate regional cooperation, making the United States, the guarantor of security in the Middle East, an empty shelf. Originally, the murder of kasuji in october2018 completely tore the face of the two countries. The murder of kasuji, whose ancestral home is Turkey and has friendly relations with Erdogan’s deputy, made Turkey extremely angry. However, on April 7, 2022, three years later, the Turkish court suddenly terminated the trial of kasuji case and handed it over to the Saudi government. This paved the way for Erdogan’s second visit to Saudi Arabia.

You know, Turkey’s original position on the murder of kasuji is consistent with that of the Democratic Party. Both sides believe that crown prince Salman should be severely punished, and Turkey holds the most important evidence. Now, Turkey’s sudden termination of the trial and transfer of the case to Saudi Arabia is tantamount to completely giving up the initiative in the kasuji incident. Turkey’s abandonment turned the Democratic Party’s trump card of holding Prince Salman into a chicken rib. Biden originally wanted to give up pursuing the kashuji incident in exchange for the maximum concession of Saudi Arabia. Now, Erdogan has taken a drastic step to make Biden lose his cards in an instant.


[Russia’s space solidarity]

Just as Turkey was drawing from the bottom, Russia also came to support Saudi Arabia. According to the intelligence confirmed by the US War Research Institute on June 11, the Intelligence Directorate General of the Ukrainian Ministry of defense intercepted an intelligence indicating that the Russian army has plans to prolong the war. The Russian military plans to extend the war for another 120 days or so and end the war in October this year. Russia chose to end the war between Russia and Ukraine in October, which was just close to the mid-term election of the United States in November. Russia means that Biden lost control of the Senate after a major victory in Ukraine in October. In november2016, the Russian Syrian coalition forces captured Aleppo and reversed the Syrian war, which led Obama to lead the Democratic Party to directly lose the US general election that month. Now Russia is just drawing gourd after gourd. Russia’s approach coincides with Saudi Arabia’s expectation that Biden will overturn in November’s mid-term elections.

At the same time, the war between Russia and Ukraine also prompted Saudi Arabia to ease its relations with Russia. In the Syrian war, Saudi Arabia chose the wrong opponent. As a result, in october2015, Russia directly sent troops to Syria, eliminating 130000 terrorists such as Isis and HTS supported by Saudi Arabia. Now, the war between Russia and Ukraine is over; After several months, Zelensky’s defeat has been decided. Naturally, Saudi Arabia will not make the mistake of seven years ago and fight against Russia, which is about to win.

Putin’s support and the victory of the Russian Ukrainian war contributed to the cooperation between Saudi Arabia led OPEC and non OPEC Russia. Saudi Arabia announced the increase in production only after obtaining Russia’s consent, which clearly told Biden that the increase in production was due to cooperation and negotiation between Saudi Arabia and Russia, rather than being threatened by Biden.

Saudi Arabia’s interaction with Turkey and Russia completely bypassed the United States and did not give Biden face at all, which met Saudi Arabia’s psychological needs of extreme self-esteem. Stopping the trial of the kashuji incident made Saudi Arabia pull out its thorns. As a result, both Putin and crown prince Salman like trump, who has relatively relaxed relations with his own country, to gain power. Erdogan also dislikes the Democratic Party for instigating a coup against him in 2016. Therefore, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all hope that the Republican Party led by trump can turn around.

[obscure strategy of Russia and Turkey]

In that case, Russia and Turkey jointly support Saudi Arabia. Has Putin and Erdogan long conspired for a consistent strategic cooperation?

On June 1, Erdogan announced a transnational military operation against Kurdish forces in northern Syria. Then, on June 16, Russia, Iran and Turkey issued a statement after the Astana process meeting on Syria, saying that as sponsors of the Astana process, Russia, Iran and Turkey jointly condemned Israel’s attack on Syria.

On the one hand, Turkey announced its attack on Kurds, on the other hand, it condemned Israel, the supporter behind Kurds. This shows that Turkey’s position is that it is willing to work with Russia and Iran to expel the Kurdish separatist forces supported by Israel and the United States on the basis of respecting the territorial integrity of Syria.

As a matter of fact, in the process of attacking Kurdish, it has always been Turkey’s bad face and Russia’s bad face. With the cooperation of the two sides, the United States dare not be rigid and can only make concessions. After the United States made concessions, the Kurds could only seek refuge from Russia and Syria. Russia and Syria took advantage of the situation to disarm the Kurds. In this way, the threat of separatist forces to Turkey disappeared.

Russia, Turkey and Iraq cooperated with each other in a tacit way. In the end, Kurds were eliminated and the United States was driven out of Syria. Everyone was happy!

In addition to Russia Turkey cooperation, China will also usher in a major conference in November this year. China Russia Turkey Saudi Arabia cooperation is preparing for the post Biden era, just like a funeral for Biden’s political career.


[Biden’s embarrassing situation and wishful thinking]

External problems are not smooth, and there are more internal problems.

The most important reason for Biden to demand Saudi Arabia to increase production and suppress oil prices is from the inside. Since June, with the high oil price, the domestic oil price in the United States has exceeded US $5 per gallon, which is converted into RMB price per liter in September. Considering that 30% of China’s oil price is additional taxes such as road maintenance fees, the actual domestic oil price in the United States is 1.22 times that of China.

The United States is a big automobile country, and there are many large displacement cars. The rise in oil prices has affected the living standards of ordinary American residents. The Democratic Party’s vote base is mainly blue collar whites, blacks in the eastern rust States and the eastern white left elites. Among them, blue collar workers and blacks in rust state are the lowest income. Although the rise in oil prices has little impact on the elite, it is an unbearable burden for low-income people. At the same time, due to the decline of logistics profit caused by the rise of oil price, truck drivers are unwilling to transport goods, which further exacerbates the price rise of domestic supermarkets, gas stations and other products.

On the other hand, the rise of bulk products has also caused harm to American manufacturing enterprises overseas. On June 15, Alcoa announced that its second largest aluminum plant in Europe, Spain, would stop producing electrolytic aluminum for two years. Due to the decline in profits or even losses caused by the rise in energy and raw materials, Alcoa was forced to close the plant, which reminded me of the power rationing in China in September 2021. The operation of Alcoa is the same as that of China.

It can be seen that soaring inflation has harmed American people’s livelihood and the real manufacturing industry. In this regard, trump mocked Biden and said that the oil price was much lower during his administration. As long as people’s livelihood is affected, it will inevitably affect the votes; As long as it touches the bottom interests, it must be immediately reflected on the votes, which is undoubtedly adding fuel to the fire for Biden, who is close to the mid-term election.

Externally, China, Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are preparing for the post Biden era and are unwilling to negotiate with them; Internally, Biden could not contain the price rise of living materials driven by refined oil. In the long run, hyperinflation will inevitably engulf the Democratic Party. This is the internal reason why the Democratic Party should try its best to suppress oil prices.

For Biden, he has no way to quickly suppress oil prices with the support of Saudi Arabia like trump. Instead, he can only use the monetary policy of raising interest rates to guide market expectations with violent interest rate increases, and curb hyperinflation through the sharp decline of futures market prices. After the U.S. interest rate hike, the international crude oil price has fallen by more than 10%. If the future expectations are well guided, under the bullwhip reverse effect, the two-way squeeze between spot and futures will bring about a sharp drop in oil prices. The policy of raising interest rates with low oil prices and a strong dollar will be fully launched. Once the policy is successful, it can not only alleviate hyperinflation domestically, but also defeat China, Russia, Europe, Japan and other countries through the export of ultra deflation with low oil prices and reshape the dollar, This is the wishful thinking of the United States.

Here, I emphasize once again that the next round of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will be strategic, similar to the interest rate hike cycle from 1980 to 1986. In combination with my previous prediction that China will encounter the test of dragon and tiger master j from 2026 to 2027, this is the ultimate window for the West to solve China’s problems. In terms of time, it is no accident that the period from 2022 to 2027 coincides with the interest rate increase cycle from 1980 to 1986. The capital flight brought about by the huge interest margin will also be larger than that from 2013 to 2016. China must not underestimate the enemy’s carelessness!

[epidemic deterioration]

In addition to raising interest rates, the global COVID-19 has also undergone extremely dangerous changes. In the new coronavirus strain ba 2.12.1 just exceeded ba It took less than three weeks for ba 4?BA. The mutated strain of ba 2.12.1 pull down the throne. According to the CDC data of the United States, as of June 11, these two strains had accounted for more than 21.6% in the United States. On May 7 a month ago, the proportion was only 1%. Within 35 days, ba 4?BA. The percentage of mutant strains increased 21 times.

There is nothing strange about the variation of the new coronavirus strain, but this Omicron variation has a new feature that can not be ignored, that is, it has the l452r mutation that was previously only found in delta strain. This means that Omicron has completely swallowed the delta strain. As I said in my previous article, during the evolution of novel coronavirus, the strains of the offspring will certainly inherit the major mutations of the previous generation. Now this phenomenon also appears in Omicron.

After this mutation, Omicron will have all the mutations between 1.0 and 4.0 of the new crown, including major mutations including d614g + e484k + l452r. BA. 4?BA. 5 this variant of l452r can not only enhance immune escape and make the antibodies produced by the human body and the vaccine ineffective, but also more easily damage the lung parts, which means that it can quickly make patients ill in the lung and hospitalize for emergencies, directly improving the hospitalization rate and mortality. This also verifies that the infectivity and toxicity of novel coronavirus are rising in an overall spiral, and its infectivity and toxicity are dialectically unified.

Rapid lung disease is a high mortality characteristic of the new crown 1.0, which now appears in the new generation of Omicron. So far, the new crown 4.0 has completed the extreme evolution. June 22 is the time when the direct point of the sun reaches the Tropic of cancer, and then it starts to run towards the equator and the Tropic of cancer. The new crown 5.0, sigma strain that I predicted will appear, will probably be produced within this time period. At that time, the virus will be highly toxic, and the death rate will be much higher than the infectivity. Under the western policy of completely equalizing with the virus, it will soon spread all over the world and replace Omicron. The epidemic is rampant, tearing up the global supply chain and severely impacting global economic activity. From this point of view, China must continue to adhere to the epidemic prevention policy of dynamic clearing.

With the joint support of the Federal Reserve’s drastic interest rate hike and the rapid increase of Omicron’s toxicity, the short-term recovery of the global economy may soon end. In this context, new problems have emerged. How should we deal with all this?


[China’s response to the crisis]

At the national level, as I said in my previous article, the way to prevent a strong dollar and low oil prices, in addition to China’s foreign bargain hunting to release dollar liquidity to ease the international dollar shortage and the DPRK’s nuclear test to shoot down the dollar index again, the most important thing is that China and Russia will jointly launch another nine yuan raid. After cleaning up Zelinski, Russia will once again work with Turkey, Iran and Syria to wipe out Kurds, So as to drive the United States out of the core area of the Middle East, drive the United States from the eastern coast of the Mediterranean to the Qatar Peninsula, and drive the U.S. military out of the Middle East. Only in this way can China and Russia stabilize the oil price at $70 ± 5.

Only when the oil price stabilizes will the US’ simple interest rate increase strategy lose its power and the effectiveness of the attack be halved. At the same time, as long as China is successful in the Asia Pacific region, de dollarization will further accelerate, and Japan, the golden left hand, will be choked by China. Once Japan stalls, the strength of the US dollar will lose its impetus, and the purchase of US debt will also decrease. This is a drastic draw on the strong US dollar.

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