Author: Li guangman source: Li guangman freezing point review wechat official account id:ligm-479210127 has been reprinted with authorization
In the past two days, there was an interesting headline. British Prime Minister Johnson called on everyone to take off their coats and compete with Putin at the G7 summit. Then Russian President Putin, who attended the Caspian Sea summit in Turkmenistan, gave a reply. Putin’s reply was still so sharp, mean and merciless. He said, “I don’t know how they want to take it off, to the waist, or below the waist, but I think either way, this is a disgusting scene.”
The Russian Embassy in China published a cartoon about this. In the cartoon, Ms. von delaine, President of the European Commission, rode on an ostrich naked; German Chancellor Scholz rode upside down on a pig; Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau rode on a white antelope, holding a bag of white powder in one hand and a wine bottle in the other hand; French President macron stood on a table, lifting his clothes to reveal his chest hair; British Prime Minister Johnson showed his bare buttocks and couldn’t climb on his horse. Not long ago, U.S. President Biden, who fell on his bike, lay under his bike. Everyone in the painting, including von delaine, was naked. It was obvious that Putin had torn the fig leaf off the robbers of men and women.
Both Putin’s answer and this cartoon make people laugh and feel happy.
Now we need to pay attention to another more important theme, that is, China, Russia and other countries begin to pull off the cloak of dollar hegemony on the United States and are ready to work alone. Three important news tell us that the action of piercing the sacred aura of dollar hegemony has begun, and a war against dollar hegemony has begun.
The US dollar, the US military and high technology are the cornerstones of the trinity of US hegemony. The United States maintains its hegemonic rule in the world, and these three are indispensable tools.
Why can the US dollar become the world currency when it is only a piece of green paper? Why can we get high seigniorage tax through this green paper? Before the decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1971, gold in the United States and gold deposited in the United States by various countries were equivalent guarantees for the stability of the dollar. After the decoupling of the dollar from gold, the dollar changed from gold dollars to petrodollars. Because the collateral of petrodollars is not American oil, but the global oil reserves, production and transactions, it is the national credit of the United States that ensures the stability of the value of the dollar. What is national credit? National credit is an invisible and intangible thing. If you say it has it, there will be it. If you say it doesn’t have it, there will be nothing. However, the United States has maintained its dollar hegemony for decades with the help of this nihilistic national credit. Why is this? This is because the United States has another more powerful hegemony, that is, the United States military.
OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, accepted the dollar as the currency of oil transactions because the United States promised to provide security to Saudi Arabia. The security provided by the United States to Saudi Arabia can also be understood as another meaning, that is, I can give you security or not. This is because the U.S. military controls the geopolitics of the Middle East, and behind the petrodollar is actually a powerful U.S. military. The United States has hundreds of military bases in dozens of countries in the world, controlling most of the strategic hubs on land and most of the important Straits at sea, which is also a key factor that makes those oil producing countries have to use dollars for oil transactions.
However, many significant and substantial changes have taken place in the international situation. First, Russia has emerged as the most important oil exporter outside OPEC. Second, China has replaced the United States as the world’s largest oil importer. Third, the United States has failed in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the United States has withdrawn its troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. Fourth, Russian troops have entered Syria to participate in the military competition in the Middle East and become one of the most influential political forces in the Middle East, Fifth, with the attention of the international community to climate issues and the rapid development of new energy, the status of oil in international politics began to decline. The above five points have brought a huge impact on the foundation of the US petrodollar.
On the other hand, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2008 and the United States was backfired by the COVID-19 in 2020. These two crises have had a huge impact on the U.S. economy. In order to resolve the crisis, the United States took advantage of its special power to control the printing power of the dollar, the world’s currency, and implemented five rounds of dollar quantitative easing in 2009, opening the floodgates and releasing water without a bottom line. In 2020, it began to implement the more crazy dollar unlimited quantitative easing, flooding the water, Eventually, the United States fell into a crisis of high debt and high inflation.
The United States used its key role as the sword bearer of the world currency to ensure that its interests sacrificed the interests of all countries, and finally fell into a national credit crisis. With the collapse of American credit, the United States is no longer a reliable and credible sword holder in charge of the printing power of the world currency. The dollar is no longer a stable currency, but has become a sharp sword to harvest global wealth and fill American selfish desires. It is this sharp sword that has become a tool to dig the grave of the United States dollar. On the surface, the United States was able to tide over the difficulties temporarily by printing unlimited US dollars, but as the cornerstone of US dollar hegemony, American credit was hollowed out by the United States itself, and US dollar hegemony began to falter.
The United States drove Iran out of swift in the comprehensive sanctions against Iran, making Iran a financial isolated island. This is the naked currency war launched by the United States against a sovereign country by using the role of the sword bearer of the world currency, which shows the evil nature of the United States. The dollar is no longer a world currency, but a weapon to create bloody financial tragedies.
After the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the United States once again offered swift, a powerful weapon to destroy the country, to drive Russia out of the global financial system, hoping that Russia would reproduce the bloody scene of Iran’s struggle after being driven out of the global financial system. Not only that, the United States also adopted simpler, direct and crude means to declare the U.S. Treasury bonds purchased by Russia invalid, and together with the entire western countries, comprehensively confiscate Russia’s overseas assets. This is no longer stealing while the moon is dark and the wind is high, but robbing openly in broad daylight. This move not only forced Russia to lift the table, It also alerted all countries in the world, including some western countries that followed the United States in looting, and a currency uprising ensued.
In the past, every time a financial crisis or economic crisis broke out, the United States would transfer the crisis to other parts of the world through conflict and war, so as to drive the dollar back to the United States, and finally take over the American crisis. But the difference this time is that although the United States successfully launched the war between Russia and Ukraine and imposed the most severe all-round sanctions on Russia in history, the key to the problem is that the global dollar has not returned to the United States on a large scale, and the vast majority of the world’s major buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds began to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds rather than increase their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, accompanied by serious high debt The high inflation crisis is that the U.S. economy shows signs of recession, the unlimited quantitative easing of the dollar cannot save the United States, and the war cannot save the United States. The United States is standing on the edge of a cliff, screaming angrily and sadly: who will save me? This time, in addition to the strong wind, who else will pull the United States?
Russia is different from Iran. Russia is a power with world influence, a resource-based country that controls the lifeline of energy and food in Europe, and a nuclear superpower with thousands of nuclear bombs. Faced with the extreme sanctions imposed by the United States, Putin did not hesitate to overturn the card table and sacrifice the “ruble settlement order”, which just stabbed the pain and weakness of the United States and hit the lifeline of the United States. It is against this background that Putin put forward the idea of formulating an alternative mechanism for international monetary settlement.
On June 22, at the opening ceremony of the BRICs business forum, Russian President Putin said in a video speech, “We are working with BRICs partners to develop a reliable alternative mechanism for international settlement. Russia’s financial information transmission system has been opened to BRICs banks. Russia’s Mir payment system is expanding its presence. We are studying the possibility of establishing an international reserve currency based on a basket of BRICs currencies.” Putin said that the BRICs countries have a population of more than 3 billion, accounting for a quarter of the world’s GDP, 20% of the world’s trade and 25% of global direct investment. The total international reserves of the BRICs countries account for about 35% of the global reserves.
If such a group abandons the US dollar, establishes its own international settlement mechanism and establishes a new international reserve currency, will the US dollar listen to the “besieged on all sides” and wave its sword at the “Wujiang River”?
The world has suffered from the US dollar for a long time. Over the years, the United States has used the unique position of the US dollar as the world currency and the advantage of the Federal Reserve in controlling the printing power of the US dollar to plunder the wealth of countries through interest rate cuts and interest rate increases. Countries around the world have been harvested by the United States again and again, and the tragedy of national bankruptcy has been repeated again and again. The hegemony of the US dollar is like a ruthless lasso around the neck of countries.
After offering the “ruble settlement order”, Russia proposed to formulate an alternative mechanism for international settlement and establish an international reserve currency based on a basket of currencies of the BRICs countries. This was a currency uprising that shook the US dollar and a currency war against the hegemony of the US dollar. Its purpose was to break the hegemony of the US dollar and finally defeat the hegemony of the United States.
Another symbolic event is the adoption of RMB for trade settlement between Russia and India. Reuters reported on June 29 that when India’s largest cement producer, chaoke cement, imported a batch of 157000 tons of coal from Russia, it used RMB for payment, and the estimated value of the goods was about 170million yuan, which was arranged by the Department of the Russian Siberian coal energy company in Dubai. The company also said that other companies were also using RMB to pay Russian coal orders.
Under the circumstances that Russia has suffered the most severe economic and financial sanctions from the whole western countries, in order to avoid the dollar risk brought by the long arm jurisdiction of the United States, more and more countries and enterprises have begun to use RMB to trade with Russia and buy Russian coal and other commodities. India, which has not a very friendly relationship with China, uses RMB to settle trade with Russia, which is more intriguing.
According to the analysis of senior Indian Banking practitioners, if Indian enterprises want to use RMB for settlement, they must first deposit US dollars into Chinese Mainland or Hong Kong, or banks associated with Chinese banks, and then exchange them for RMB for settlement. Sujag, former Minister of economic affairs of the Indian Ministry of finance, said, “if the rupee RMB ruble approach is more beneficial, enterprises have good reasons to do so, and such situations will become more and more frequent.” This allows us to see an alternative to the US dollar, that is, the RMB is becoming a passive choice under the US sanctions against Russia. If the financial sanctions against Russia are maintained for a long time, it may become a new normal for countries to choose the RMB to settle trade with Russia.
Russia’s “ruble settlement order” broke the myth that the world cannot live without the dollar and the dollar system, swift, and the world must prostrate at the foot of the dollar, tearing down the veil of dollar hegemony. China, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela and the developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, which have been plundered and slaughtered by the US financial hegemony for a long time, must have the courage to lift the table like Russia. When we really tear open the clothes of the gang of robbers, what we see is actually the naked, male robbers and female prostitutes shown in the cartoon mentioned at the beginning of our article.
China is a long-term victim of dollar hegemony. China has achieved a large trade surplus in international trade by virtue of its huge advantages in the manufacturing sector. Because the United States prohibits Chinese enterprises from acquiring American high-tech enterprises, technologies and products, China cannot use these dollars for industrial upgrading at home. For a long time, China can only use these large amounts of dollars obtained from the trade surplus to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. The Chinese people use a lot of cheap labor to produce goods from the United States in exchange for a pile of green paper. This pile of green paper finally returns to the United States by buying U.S. treasury bonds, supporting the U.S. stock market, U.S. prosperity and the happy life of the American people. If this cycle is not broken, China will always be the sweatshop of the United States, The Chinese people will always be cheap coolies for American prosperity.
After the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008, the United States felt that the western developed countries had been unable to save the United States, so it planned to hold a G20 summit to save the United States by using the power of emerging economies, mainly China, and pull the collapsing United States back from the cliff. After the crisis, the United States did not vote to repay, but staged a story of farmers and snakes, successfully transferring the crisis to European and Asian countries. At present, the United States, which is deeply in the crisis of high debt and high inflation, is trying to repeat the plot of 2008. However, this time, the United States used too much, and Russia overturned the table. China is also keenly aware of some fleeting opportunities, and is decisive.
It is a major national strategy of China to promote the internationalization of RMB step by step. At present, China’s economic aggregate ranks second in the world and its total trade volume ranks first in the world. China is also the world’s largest producer of industrial products, the largest bulk commodity trading country, the largest energy consumer, producer and importer, and the world’s largest iron ore, natural rubber, refined copper, soybeans Bauxite importing country and the largest oil importing country. However, at present, the RMB is only the fifth largest settlement currency in the world. China seriously lacks pricing power in global bulk commodity trade and settlement.
China has been preparing for a financial nuclear war in terms of national financial strategies, policies, underlying technologies, system construction, platforms, etc. On June 20, the people’s Bank of China issued the notice on supporting cross-border RMB settlement of new forms of foreign trade, which was officially implemented on July 1. Obviously, this is the “RMB settlement order” launched by China after Russia implemented the “ruble settlement order”, although this settlement order is not as passive and mandatory as the “ruble settlement order”.
The content of this “RMB settlement order” is mainly reflected in four aspects: first, increase support for new forms of foreign trade and improve relevant policies for cross-border RMB business of new forms of foreign trade such as cross-border e-commerce; Second, expand the scope of cross-border business handling of Payment institutions from trade in goods and trade in services to all current accounts; Third, clarify the business development and filing requirements of banks, Payment institutions and other relevant business entities; Fourth, clarify the requirements for business authenticity audit, anti money laundering, anti terrorist financing, anti tax evasion and data submission, consolidate the business development responsibilities of banks and Payment institutions, and prevent and control business risks.
How to deal with the financial nuclear war between the United States and the west? How to launch a war against US dollar hegemony in the currency field? At present, China is preparing in the following three aspects.
First, vigorously promote the construction of a strategic RMB cross-border payment system (CIPS), establish a CIPS ecosystem around the world as soon as possible, and attract more countries, regions and banks to join, so as to prevent China from becoming a financial island when it is subjected to extreme financial sanctions from the United States and the West, so as to break the possible financial blockade by the United States and the west, and establish a RMB cross-border payment system with its own ecosystem outside swift.
Second, gradually and orderly promote the internationalization of RMB and establish an ecosystem of RMB internationalization. At present, the internationalization of RMB should first establish a RMB ecosystem in an area within the reach of China’s geopolitical influence. This accessible area mainly refers to the Middle East, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Russia and countries along the the Belt and Road in Asia and Europe. In addition, in Africa and Latin America, the internationalization of RMB can also be promoted with China’s the Belt and Road project, without pursuing the internationalization of RMB in Europe, North America and Japan for a period of time, To avoid the premature assumption of unbearable responsibility for internationalization of the RMB, I have one of the three world, even if it is very successful.
Third, accelerate the use of digital RMB. Digital RMB is a legal currency guaranteed by national credit and equivalent to paper RMB. Promoting the use of digital RMB is a major financial innovation project facing the future, and it is also an important means of RMB internationalization. At present, China is developing, testing and promoting the underlying logic construction, technology, scenario application development, digital wallet distribution and other aspects of the use of digital RMB.
The construction of RMB cross-border payment system (CIPS), the establishment of RMB internationalization ecosystem and the promotion of the use of digital RMB are the three basic projects of RMB internationalization. In order to finally win the war against the hegemony of the US dollar, we must be able to land these major projects and make them practical, convenient, acceptable and operable.
Article 18 of the notice on supporting cross-border RMB settlement of new forms of Foreign Trade issued by the central bank specifically refers to encouraging financial institutions, Payment institutions, credit reporting institutions, foreign trade service platforms, etc. to strengthen cooperation and provide convenient financial services for enterprises with real trading backgrounds. We should facilitate the management of trade payment and settlement, and support more qualified banks and Payment institutions to provide settlement services for enterprises with new business forms and new models of foreign trade in accordance with the law. This is to require all parties to “provide convenient financial services for new foreign trade enterprises with real transaction background”. With a system, an ecosystem, and a convenient service platform.
How to establish a new financial order for the settlement of cross-border trade RMB pricing transactions under the CIPS settlement system? How to provide financial settlement services under cross-border trade supply chain and RMB fixed asset transactions? In this regard, Li Jian, vice president of China Financial Innovation Research Institute of economic daily and chairman of Ningbo Free Trade Zone cross border supply chain management and Settlement Technology Co., Ltd., and his team conducted extensive and in-depth thinking.
First, the RMB can be “passively bound” through the strong demand of other countries, and become the preferred or secondary settlement currency of some countries, so as to obtain more and more rights to print and cast banknotes in the world.
Second, on the surface, the RMB is linked to the value of the Chinese government’s credit and the Chinese national tax. In essence, it is linked to Chinese goods and services. China’s industrial production capacity, advanced technology, huge quantities of goods, and first-class services are real and sustainable values. Therefore, the value credit of RMB internationalization has a strong and lasting guarantee.
Third, China is the country with the strongest ability to export interests in the world. For thousands of years, China has been the leader of continental civilization, standing on the top of world civilization, economy and military for a long time. Continental complex is an integral part of Chinese civilization. The unification of land and external radiation are China’s inherent qualities. Today, China can connect Eurasia and Africa by means of high-speed rail, supplemented by aviation and shipping, to realize the trade flow and interest exchange link of Chinese version globalization.
Fourth, China’s design of the three levels of the world economic system, division of labor and exchange of interests puts China at the center of demand and becomes the biggest beneficiary of the exchange of interests. Other countries can exchange interests and share prosperity with China and other member countries on the premise of equality and freedom. China in the center can become the leading rule maker, and thus form a new world order.
To this end, Li Jian and his team put forward the financial innovation concept of “special right of delivery”, which avoids the hegemony of the US dollar and the financial sanctions of the United States under the CIPS framework. This innovative concept anchors the digital trade right of digital RMB settlement and carries out strategic cooperation with UnionPay commerce in the field of cross-border payment and settlement, Create a new cross-border RMB pricing and settlement technical service platform and “digital UnionPay” for the settlement of RMB pricing transactions. Where the RMB has not yet arrived, it can use “digital delivery right” to replace it, so as to achieve the effect of taking pay from the bottom of the barrel for the hegemony of the US dollar. If CIPS is an open link ecosystem of a highway, then the “special right of delivery” is a service platform of business ecosystem.
What Li Jian and his team want to build is a digital integrated innovative service platform of loan + currency + logistics + settlement + financial services + digital registration transaction + directional delivery mechanism + carbon tax solution, and a comprehensive service industry ecological platform of RMB pricing transaction and settlement of cross-border digital trade.
To this end, Li Jian’s team proposed to take Xinjiang free trade zone as a pilot for cross-border payment and RMB settlement of international trade, create an innovative demonstration area for cross-border digital trade RMB pricing and settlement and digital logistics transaction delivery at national border ports, and take Xinjiang as the center, radiating outward to Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Russia. As this region is the main radiation area of China’s land Silk Road Economic Belt, Therefore, in the future, this region can be built into a core region that widely uses RMB for trade settlement, that is, the core region that establishes the RMB internationalization ecosystem.
Li Jian’s team also proposed to set up a bulk commodity spot trading and settlement center in Guangzhou, build a national bulk commodity OTC trading service platform, and build a multi-level commodity market system and a multi-level commodity market system under the application of digital currency, so as to compete for the pricing and settlement rights of bulk commodities. With the same value as Xinjiang’s westward radiation, Guangzhou radiates to Southeast Asia, the African continent and Latin America. It is the main area of the maritime silk road leading overseas and another core area for the establishment of the RMB internationalization ecosystem.
The idea and practice of Li Jian’s team is to pave the way for steadily promoting the internationalization of the RMB in the spirit of Yugong removing mountains and filling the sea. We can see from them a spirit of not surrendering, not yielding, not giving in, a spirit of never ending life and digging mountains, and a spirit of making China’s own financial atomic bomb and breaking the U.S. financial nuclear deterrence.
From the “ruble settlement order” to the “RMB settlement order”, from Russia’s lifting the table to China’s layout of RMB internationalization, we understand that the Russian Ukrainian war is not only a military war, but also a silent currency war against US dollar hegemony. When the United States removed the main banks of Russia from swift and turned Russia into a financial Island, we saw that in addition to Russia, there are Iran, Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela, and even China and other countries that the United States and the West want to lock up in the future. Why are so many developing countries still unwilling to participate in sanctions against Russia in the face of the intimidation and threat of the United States? It is because these countries see their future in the mirror of Russia, Iran and other countries. If they participate in the sanctions against Russia, they will be helping the tyrants and putting chains on themselves. Once the shackles of dollar hegemony are put on, they will become the financial slaves of the United States, a colonial country, forever.
American society has formed a consensus that China is a strategic competitor of the United States. The war against China has already begun, including trade war, scientific and technological war, biological war, public opinion war, color revolution, and comprehensive military encirclement and strategic strangulation against China. China and the United States are entering a quasi wartime state of full decoupling. Sooner or later, China and the United States will have a frontal collision currency war in the financial field, It is not because China wants to compete for the financial hegemony of the United States, but because China’s development is shaking the financial hegemony of the United States. The “crime of huaibi” of RMB internationalization is bound to be severely attacked by the United States, and it is clear to launch a financial war against China. It has become a very urgent practical need for China to prepare for a financial nuclear war with the United States as soon as possible and to carry out the strategic layout of RMB internationalization as soon as possible.
At present, the United States is on the brink of a crisis of high debt and high inflation. The United States is suffering from an insurmountable capitalist crisis. Society is torn apart, the rich and the poor are intensifying, party disputes between the two parties, as well as problems such as guns, drugs, abortion, gender, ethnic minorities, immigration, etc., are increasingly tearing apart American society. The body of the United States is beginning to rot, and the economic recession is beginning to appear. At this time, the United States is fighting the war between Russia and Ukraine, He wants to use a proxy war to transfer domestic contradictions and resolve the risk of high inflation.
However, the United States played too much this time. When the United States wanted to wipe out Russia and leave no way to live, Russia took the lead in launching a currency uprising of world significance, directly drawing money from the bottom of the dollar hegemony. At this time, can China save the United States as it did in 2008? Can China save the frozen United States with compassion like a farmer?
Now let’s look back at the cartoon mentioned at the beginning of our article. The group of war traffickers who are rampant in men and women are not playing games, entertaining, or holding charity parties. Instead, they are talking and laughing about battlefield massacres and wealth looting. Everything is naked in broad daylight.
Currency war is both currency and geopolitics. The United States uses a strong military force to deter, uses technological monopoly as a means of oppression, uses the US dollar as a blood transfusion pipeline, takes public opinion discourse as the guide, and drives forward with four wheels.
Latin America has been cut open by the United States and become a permanent enslavement of the United States. North Korea has been completely blocked by the United States, cutting off its links with the world. Iran has been severely sanctioned by the United States and almost lost its development capacity. Russia has been excluded from swift by the United States and has become a financial island. Who is next?
Cuba has been blockaded by the United States for half a century and has always stood firm; Under the pressure of the United States, North Korea developed nuclear weapons with the strength of the whole country, which amazed the world; Iran is not afraid of the U.S. blockade, insists on the struggle against the United States, and has become a flag against the United States in the Middle East; Russia faced off with the whole NATO, overturned the card table and launched a currency uprising.
Whether willing or unwilling, whether resisting or not, China is the next financial hunting target of the United States. China has no intention of dominating the world, but only China in the world can overturn the United States and re plan and establish a new world order in the post American hegemony era.
If the U.S. military is the cornerstone for the United States to dominate the world, then the dollar is the suction cup for the United States to plunder world wealth. Only by cutting off the suction cup that is adsorbed on all countries in the world can the United States, the world bully, be killed.
The war against US dollar hegemony is a war against oppression, exploitation and slavery. China, regarded by the United States as the largest strategic competitor, has no choice but to meet the challenge and baptism of this war, and there is no retreat except victory.
If China kneels down and surrenders, the world will be enslaved and trampled forever by the United States, a colonial, imperialist, hegemonic and fascist country. The so-called western civilization represented by the United States will really become the terminator of world civilization.
China must participate in and lead this currency war, resist the evil rule of American financial hegemonism, and return the world to civilization, mankind to justice, and the earth to peace.