Direct conversation!

Author: Sheng Tang rushong source wechat official account: the chief shopkeeper’s knife has been authorized to reprint

On June 17, after visiting Ukraine with French President macron and Italian Prime Minister Draghi, German Chancellor Scholz told the media that “it is absolutely necessary to maintain direct dialogue with Putin. French President macron shared his own opinion: Russia and Ukraine must achieve a ceasefire and reach a peace agreement.”

Refer to yesterday’s “the big three in Europe”, I used the form of a story to interpret the current mentality of the three major European countries: Germany, France and Italy. Scholz’s statement to the media this time proves that my psychological judgment on Scholz yesterday is correct‘ It is absolutely necessary to maintain direct dialogue with Putin. “. This is Scholz’s experience about four months after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Because he has realized how important it was for Merkel to try her best to maintain the dialogue with Putin at the beginning. If Europe, especially Germany and France, could try their best to maintain the balance between Russia and Ukraine and ensure the independence of the EU in European security as much as possible, the situation would not have reached this point. Of course, Merkel also paid a great price for this, such as dizziness, for example, the mobile phone in her pocket became a wiretap of the CIA, and so on.

In fact, even if Scholz understands this truth, she may not be able to do what Merkel has been threatened and insisted on. Because the risks are too great, and the Russian Ukrainian crisis does not sacrifice his personal interests, but the overall interests of Europe. When personal interests conflict with national interests and regional interests, or one of the two must be chosen, there are not many people like Ms Merkel. The so-called times make heroes, but heroes are always rare. Merkel is, but Scholz is not.

However, Scholz finally understood this truth. Then he should work with macron to return to Merkel’s diplomatic state. And macron is also the successor of Merkel. Merkel’s technique should be familiar. It’s just that this person is too weak to withstand pressure as Merkel. As a country with a much higher international status and a much higher level of historical relations with the United States than Germany, in fact, France can play a more international coordinating role than Germany. However, macron was tested by the United States and Britain in the submarine chargeback incident in Australia. It is found that France under macron is still France around 1940, and has made little progress. After kneading, it can become any shape that Britain and America want. Therefore, we can see that in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, France actually made little noise, and its role was totally inconsistent with the status of a permanent member of the United Nations. Even when ZELINSKY asked for money and guns from Europe, he mostly named Germany, and ignored France.

So, although Scholz understood the importance of Merkel’s tactics, although he also negotiated with macron what to do. However, I am afraid Putin is not interested in the direct dialogue proposed by Scholz.

Because Germany and France cannot control Zelensky’s attitude, nor can they even make Eastern European countries such as Poland and Romania stand together with the EU to form an overall posture towards Ukraine and Russia. If an alliance can not form a consistent attitude towards the outside world, the external deterrence of the alliance is basically equal to zero. What’s more, the leaders are two weak chickens.

Therefore, in the case of Russia and Ukraine, Germany and France can only be scrupulous while blackmailing Ukraine and putting pressure on the United States. Putin is not very interested in these two countries. Even if he agrees to have a direct dialogue with them, it is from an international perspective. If he does not agree, some people will say that Russia does not want peace. However, Putin will not hold much hope for direct communication with Germany and France to achieve peace. Peace still depends on the guy in his hand.

Zelensky said yesterday that he would hold talks with Russia at the end of August. This is in line with the analysis in my article this September written a few days ago. Although Germany and France cannot make Ukraine obedient, they will certainly express their attitude to ZELINSKY. This attitude is that Ukraine must negotiate with Russia, and it is impossible to get back the land that has been taken from Russia. Peace must be bought with land.

From this point of view, the whole of Europe and the United States have actually decided to end the war at the end of August. [although Russia may not agree]. The United States began to build temporary granaries in Poland to transport the mature wheat of Ukraine in July to Poland for control.

Don’t think why the powerful United States even snatches wheat. I just saw a news today; The U.S. Army even began to rob wheat in Syria and armed to escort the seized wheat to the U.S. controlled area in Iraq. It’s not that Americans like Syrian wheat and Ukrainian wheat, but if these grains are in the hands of Americans, Ukrainians and Syrians have no bread to eat, so they have to listen to the Americans. This is particularly evident in Syria, where wheat production is not high and self-protection is insufficient. The Americans stole the wheat, obviously to make the situation of Bashar government in Syria more difficult. If the Bashar government cannot feed its own people, or even ensure that its own people will not starve to death, then Bashar must pay a greater price to obtain food. Otherwise, the unrest in Syria will not only continue, but also expand. This is what Americans want. The United States is using food to make the world more insecure. Ridiculous American politicians are still talking about world food security.

As for Ukraine, due to its huge grain output, the United States should not only use these grains to control the Ukrainian government, but also use them to exert influence on the global food crisis, and use them as a payment method for Ukraine to buy American weapons. The grain harvest is completed in July, and the transportation and collection will be carried out in August. By the end of August, ZELINSKY and Putin can naturally negotiate. This is an obvious road map. However, these are just the ideas of the United States and Ukraine. As for whether Putin is willing or not, it depends on whether the Russian army has completed the goal of the operation against Ukraine at the end of August. If it is not finished, the matter will not be settled. Putin is not interested in the so-called direct dialogue between Scholz and macron. How can a person who cannot control the will of his own country control the fate of others? The only promise of Germany and France will eventually lead to the decline of the EU.

Putin is unwilling to talk. What can Biden do?

Biden who fell

Biden could do nothing about Putin, so he turned his eyes to China. Recently, the level of Sino US talks has been gradually rising. It is obviously preparing for the highest level dialogue between the two countries. Germany and France now want to have direct dialogue with Putin, but they can’t. can Biden achieve the goal of direct dialogue with China?

Biden recently announced to the media that he would soon realize direct dialogue with China. Still, when September comes, China and the United States must reach an understanding on some issues. At least the United States hopes for such an outcome. That is, before September, China and the United States achieved some degree of compromise.

According to the current inflation trend in the United States, if China fails to cooperate in material supply, it is impossible for the United States to raise interest rates to solve the inflationary pressure. The US dollar cannot overflow through the purchase channel, and stagflation is bound to occur in the United States. Therefore, at present, the United States has only two ways to go. One is to open up the channel of dollar inflation overflow, which requires China’s cooperation. The other is to launch a conflict in East Asia that China has to cooperate with. The former is “Hello, I’m OK” [the United States thinks], the latter is “I’m not good, you can’t think well” [the same is the United States thinks].

In this case, the direct dialogue is of little significance, but the necessity of calling still exists. The meaning of Putin’s willingness to talk to Germany and France is the same: peace is negotiated, but first it must be fought. Although China is a peace loving country, it is not afraid to fight. We don’t agree with Biden’s first way, because the United States never wants us to be good, so why should we pay for it? As for the second way. The naming of the Fujian has explained everything.