Original: Housha Source WeChat official account: Housha has been authorized to reprint
After China successfully facilitated reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran and restored diplomatic relations, the Middle East region has sparked waves of reconciliation.
This has brought significant changes and far-reaching impacts to the regional pattern.
Since June 1st, multiple news agencies in the Middle East have been reporting surprising news that countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran are establishing a “naval alliance”.
On June 2nd, Iran’s Fars News Agency reported that Iranian Navy Commander Ilani had announced that Gulf countries would form a naval alliance consisting of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Iraq… as well as India and Pakistan.
According to Al jadid News Network in Qatar, with the coordination of China, four countries – Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman – have begun negotiations to establish a naval alliance aimed at ensuring the safety of navigation in the Persian Gulf and surrounding areas.
Other Middle Eastern media have also reported that although there are differences in the number of member states and specific countries, the message of establishing a “naval alliance” is clear.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin responded to this matter today and said:
Maintaining peace and stability in the Middle East and Gulf region is crucial to the well-being of countries and people in the region. It is crucial for maintaining world peace, promoting global economic development, and ensuring stable energy supply.
China supports regional countries in resolving differences through dialogue and consultation, achieving good neighborly friendship, strengthening unity and self-improvement, and firmly holding their future and destiny in their own hands.
As a good friend of regional countries, China will continue to play a positive and constructive role in promoting regional peace and stability.
Wang Wenbin did not directly answer the question of “naval alliance”, but mainly talked about the general principles and direction of China’s foreign policy towards the Middle East.
So, what is the connection between China and the “Middle East Naval Alliance” that is being established? Wait a moment, let’s first understand what exactly happened?
Naval Alliance and Military Balance
The establishment of a naval alliance among Arab countries is not new, but it was previously led by the United States, and its symbolic significance far outweighed its practical significance. Mainly targeting Iran, backed by the US Fifth Fleet.
But the reason why this naval alliance is surprising to the outside world now is because Iran’s accession, which was unimaginable a few years ago.
This indicates that the mutual trust between Saudi Arabia and Iran has expanded from the political, diplomatic, and intelligence fields to the military field. Some unclear and unclear grievances between the two sides should have been clarified, and some accounts should be recorded in the hands of third parties.
But this does not mean that Iran can co establish a naval alliance with Saudi Arabia, despite both sides having the willingness to strengthen their navy.
In the first two months, there were rumors that Saudi Arabia planned to purchase 052D destroyers from China, and the Chinese People’s Navy already had 055 10000 ton destroyers, so there is a possibility of exporting 052D to Saudi Arabia.
This news first appeared in February of this year, when China sent the 052DL destroyer 162 “Nanning” to the United Arab Emirates to participate in the Abu Dhabi Defense Exhibition. If it weren’t for the “seller show”, why would the “Nanning” ship be so busy?
Later, it was rumored that Saudi Arabia bought 12 ships, each costing over $700 million. But this rumor is not credible, how could Saudi Arabia buy so much.
It’s not that Saudi Arabia can’t afford it. With Saudi Arabia’s purchasing power, if you make it pay in installments for 10 billion dollars, it’s just insulting. Who do you look down on!
The 12 ships are somewhat outrageous, but it is not impossible for Saudi Arabia to purchase 2-4 ships. As soon as the news of the “Middle East Naval Alliance” comes out, it indicates that the previous rumors (release) are not unfounded.
There is an inherent connection between Saudi Arabia’s purchase of warships and the establishment of the “Middle East Naval Alliance”.
If China sells 052D to Saudi Arabia, whether it is 2, 4, or 6, it will directly cause an imbalance in the naval power balance in the region.
It’s windy in Shatkola. Driving 052D all day in the Arabian Sea, it’s like a local luxury car.
Even in the context of grand reconciliation, when Saudi Arabia has 052D, its naval strength will immediately climb several steps, and Iran will inevitably feel a sense of crisis, which is determined by the mission of maintaining national security.
Iran will seek to re-establish balance and also propose to purchase 052D from China, as it cannot find a substitute in other countries.
If China sells 052D to Iran, will Saudi Arabia feel comfortable?
Just like when we sold to the “Dongfeng” town in Saudi Arabia, no other Middle Eastern country has been able to buy “Dongfeng”, which ensures Saudi Arabia’s “unique” status.
If 052D sells on both sides, three sides, and N sides like this, on the surface, China has made more money, but isn’t this just creating an arms race in the Middle East?
What is the difference between this and the American tactics? In the end, everyone will dislike you. So, that’s not how the accounts are calculated.
How can we maintain a balance of military power in the Middle East while meeting Saudi Arabia’s desire for 052D? This was originally impossible.
But after the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, this condition emerged.
Qatar’s Al jadid News Network stated that “with the coordination of China, the four countries are preparing to form a naval alliance.
That is to say, there is a connection between China and the establishment of the Four Nation Naval Alliance.
The most important aspect of a naval alliance lies in its political significance – Saudi Arabia and Iran are no longer enemies, as it is impossible for the enemy to establish a military alliance with them. Only countries with mutual trust will do so.
Although it is currently unclear whether the “Naval Alliance” is a military organization or a negotiation platform, it can be confirmed that the enemy of the “Naval Alliance” is Israel, while also guarding against the United States.
Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman are all located adjacent to the Persian Gulf.
On the left, Saudi Arabia is adjacent to the Red Sea, while Israel has a Red Sea passage.
The plan of the Israeli Navy is the ‘Blue Water Navy’, which not only controls the eastern Mediterranean, but also has access to the Red Sea and deploys into the Indian Ocean outside of Iran.
Israel has three naval bases: Haifa, Assad and Eilat, which are ideally located.
It not only pays attention to the development of surface combatant, but also focuses on strengthening the strength of submarines.
Although the Israeli navy has less than 20000 personnel, its warships are the most advanced and capable in the Middle East. In the Mediterranean, it can easily blockade the port of Beirut in Lebanon or crush the Syrian navy inside the port.
The Israeli Navy also maintains two or more submarines (each with four cruise missiles, reportedly nuclear warheads) operating in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.
In addition, the Israeli Navy can also receive support from US military GPS.
Although Israel says strengthening its navy to ensure its maritime lifeline, what it truly wants is the ability to cut off the maritime lifelines of Middle Eastern countries at any time and keep Saudi Arabia and Iran in fear of the destruction of their capitals.
But if Israel were to fully develop its navy, it would not be able to bear it. The ideal scenario would be for Saudi Arabia and other countries to fight each other to the death at sea, while Israel would always maintain its maritime advantage.
The reason why the United States does not sell new missile destroyers to Saudi Arabia is due to concerns about the weakening of the Israeli Navy’s regional advantage.
In other words, the balance of naval power between Arab countries and Israel is achieved through the United States’ Fifth Fleet, and this reliance is so unreliable.
The key is that the problem of “internal conflicts” among Middle Eastern countries is now over, and everyone has distinguished between enemies and friends.
In this way, Saudi Arabia can establish a true maritime military balance by purchasing China’s advanced missile destroyers and other armaments.
And Iran doesn’t have to worry about being attacked, as they are members of the ‘Naval Alliance’. On the contrary, Iran can also purchase advanced missile destroyers.
The ‘Naval Alliance’ will inevitably face strong opposition from the United States, which is not afraid of their military superiority over the ‘Fifth Fleet’, but rather fears the political factor within it – the Middle East being united by recognizing a common enemy.
Hawkins, spokesperson for the United States’ Fifth Fleet and Joint Maritime Forces (CMF), stated the day before yesterday that Iran is the number one factor in regional instability, and establishing a “naval alliance” is an irrational behavior (contrary to reason)
The meaning is that Arab countries need to see who your enemies are, and that is Iran.
But to put it bluntly, the United Arab Emirates has just announced its withdrawal from the United States led ‘Joint Maritime Force’ (CMF)
Are the enemies of Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia Iran or Israel, and do they lack political judgment ability?
Biden’s actions and inconsistent expression have made the United States increasingly untrustworthy in the Middle East. In early 2021, it was Biden who went against the plan and decided to ban the sale of weapons such as F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (as approved by the Trump government)
Behind Biden’s decision is the lobbying power of the Jewish community. So, Saudi Arabia will definitely make every effort to find a way out and enhance its ability to confront Israel. Who is the enemy and who is the friend, will the Saudi 80s generation not be able to see clearly?
The sudden reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a major diplomatic failure for the United States, as it did not detect relevant intelligence beforehand.
Antony Blinken will visit the Middle East tomorrow (6-8 days), with the focus on Saudi Arabia.
In order to save Saudi Arabia’s heart, Antony Blinken even broke the traditional itinerary of the Secretary of State of the United States. He did not visit Israel.
He wants to stir up the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iraq with just one mouth, stirring up the “Navy Alliance”, which is bound to be in vain. If he dares to relax the US arms ban on Saudi Arabia, I’m afraid the Jews will not be able to spare him.
As for Iran’s mention that India and Pakistan will also join the “Naval Alliance” in the future, this is only an attitude towards the Indian Ocean. Even if it were expanded to eight members and seven of them were Islamic countries, would India join? It’s not as foolish as this, is it.
The emergence of the “Naval Alliance” cannot be stopped by the United States;
1? It is difficult for these Saudi tycoons to be fooled by the United States and Israel, as they want to establish an independent security system;
2? They don’t need money, and China also needs to ensure its own energy security and hopes for peace and stability here. 052D is the power of peace.
In addition, after the establishment of the “Naval Alliance”, the ace of the United States – GPS – will also be replaced by the Beidou.
China and the Middle East share a common direction, merging into one. How can the United States stop them?
In a few years, the United States’ hegemonic position in the Middle East will gradually disappear, and the oil dollar system will also disintegrate.
Will the United States take a desperate gamble? It depends on how powerful the peace forces here are!