Original: Zhanhao source: official account: Zhanhao wechat ID: zhanhao668
Fundamentally speaking, the big power game is still for national interests, especially for imperialist countries. Some of his international strategies are often to solve their own problems, that is, capitalist powers like to externalize their own internal problems and solve their own crises by shifting.
One of the most important purposes of the United States in provoking the Russian Ukrainian war this time is to pass on its own economic crisis and pass on the almost runaway inflation. However, the problem is that compared with the past, China’s industrial upgrading in the past decade or so has resulted in high added value of products, further refinement of social division of labor, strong resistance of the entire economy to rising energy prices, and it is very difficult for the United States to pass on the crisis. Therefore, it finally chose Europe as the target of its own crisis, which is one of the important reasons for the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war.
U.S. inflation began in April 2021, and then the Federal Reserve always claimed that it was a short-term behavior, which would disappear soon, and then delayed raising interest rates until the Russian Ukrainian war broke out on February 24. As a result, the Federal Reserve immediately began to raise interest rates in March. Since then, with the help of the extreme panic brought by the Russian Ukrainian war to European countries, the United States has frantically increased interest rates, a large number of European capital has fled from the European market to the American market, and the US dollar index has soared to around 110.
Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) has previously analyzed that the United States is going crazy to raise interest rates even at the cost of an economic hard landing, because once the US market completely loses control of inflation, it means that the US dollar will fall into a frenzied depreciation. Once the global frenzied selling of US dollars is triggered, the global financial hegemony and currency hegemony of the United States will collapse in an all-round way, and the US economy will collapse along with it. Under such a background, the United States can not care about any allies!
However, almost all EU countries have no sense of this series of operations of the United States, or they have been frightened by the Russian Ukrainian war and completely led by the United States. As a result, we can see that the European Union has adopted severe sanctions against Russia, and now Russia directly no longer supplies gas to the European Union. In this way, serious problems will occur in the economic growth of the EU, such as soaring energy prices, soaring inflation, and plummeting exchange rates… The serious economic problems of the United States itself will be passed on to European countries through crisis transfer.
In the past six months, it seems that EU countries have not realized that the United States is transferring its own crisis to Europe, but recently they seem to have awakened.
According to Bloomberg’s report on September 10, European Commission Executive Vice President and Trade Commissioner dombrovsky said in an interview that the European Union was assessing whether the protectionist content in the US inflation Reduction Act (IRA) violated World Trade Organization (WTO) norms. In an interview, East brovsky said that the EU was worried about some discriminatory contents in the bill. “These Provisions impose requirements on local share and local production, so we are assessing whether they are in compliance with WTO rules and the government procurement agreement.” He said.
Although the inflation Reduction Act formulated by the United States has nothing to do with the Russian Ukrainian war, like the Russian Ukrainian war, the United States does all this to reduce its own inflation. Now the European Union seems to realize that after this round, its inflation has become more and more serious, and the inflation pressure of the United States has begun to decline. In this regard, it seems that South Korea has also found out that South Korea is also urging the United States to provide Korean electric vehicles with the same tax preference as North American vehicles, and to “actively” consider resorting to the WTO complaint procedure. South Korean officials even said earlier that the inflation reduction act is a “betrayal” to the South Korean side, which may complicate economic and security cooperation between the United States and South Korea.
Look, South Korea understands that if the United States can’t adjust the restrictions on Korean products imposed by the inflation reduction act, South Korea may adjust its economic and security cooperation with the United States. Of course, South Korea does not say that to China. For example, the Yin Xiyue government still insists on deploying “THAAD” in violation of the “three no’s and one limit” commitment of the Moon Jae-in government to China.
In fact, the intention of the United States is to accelerate the flow of capital to the United States by creating crises in Eastern Europe and East Asia. At the same time, the so-called inflation reduction act is formulated to promote industrial transfer. Similarly, the chip act is also aimed at this. For example, an important part of the so-called “inflation Reduction Act” is to provide tax relief of up to $7500 a year for consumers who buy electric vehicles made in North America in the United States. However, due to the restrictions imposed by the United States on the proportion of battery materials and the place of assembly, cars currently exported from South Korea to the United States may be excluded from the scope of subsidies. Obviously, the United States is forcing its allies to transfer their industries to the United States, leaving industrial division and more economic value in the United States.
However, the problem is that industries, including those in Europe, have become seriously hollowed out. If industries are transferred to the United States, what else will Europe have? Just like South Korea, the United States is trying to transfer South Korea’s chip industry to the United States through the chip Quad alliance, and South Korea has been delaying.
Europe has just realized that the inflation reduction act of the United States is unfavorable to itself and will affect its own industry and economic development.
In fact, this move of the United States is very clever. On the one hand, he created the Russian Ukrainian war to scare capital from investing in Europe, and then these capital will invest more funds in the United States. However, if it is only financial capital, the capital may flow out at any time. Therefore, the United States has introduced such methods as the inflation Reduction Act and the chip Quad alliance to seek to transfer more high-end industries to the United States.
The transfer of high-end industries in this way can play three major roles for the United States:
1? Solidify capital into the US market
Through this series of bills, the United States tries to solidify more capital and high-end industries into the American market, which is conducive to the further materialization of the American economy. However, the US market alone is not enough to attract industrial capital to do so, so the US has introduced a series of subsidy bills.
2? Deepen the industrial division of labor in the United States and enhance the added value of American manufacturing industry
In the past few years, the US economy has become increasingly weak. Economic growth mainly depends on the rise of financial asset prices and the expansion of the service industry, which will inevitably lead to the continuous simplification of the social division of labor in the United States. The refinement of social division of labor will expand employment and integrate more people into the economic cycle. Conversely, the simplification of social division of labor will leave more people out of the economic cycle. In this way, the production capacity of the whole economy will decline, and it will be more sensitive to the rise of product prices in the first quarter, which will allow for inflation. Just like in 2007, the United States can use the currency status of the United States dollar to pass on inflation by simply pushing up the price of resources. That is because the social division of labor in a manufacturing country like China is relatively simple, and the cost of primary products in the economic cycle is too high, so the economy has a poor tolerance to fluctuations in resource prices. Now, on the contrary, due to the oversimplification of the social division of labor in the United States, it has become more sensitive to the fluctuations of energy prices than China.
The United States is trying to transfer more high-end industries to the United States, including the European Union, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, China province of China. The purpose is to expand the division of labor in the United States, enhance the added value of upgraded production in the United States, and thus enhance the anti inflation ability of its own economy.
3? Restructure the global industrial chain and consolidate its own advantages in science and technology industry
At present, the United States is very nervous about the close connection between China and the global industrial chain, and more importantly, China is moving very fast in industrial upgrading. For example, China has made the greatest achievements in new energy vehicles. It is not only the world’s largest market, but also the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturing country. The proportion of electric vehicles and market sales made in China has exceeded half of the world. Now, there are only a few industries in the United States that can still block China’s neck, such as chips.
In this case, in the past few years, the United States has been trying to reconstruct the global industrial chain. One of the strategies of the United States is to achieve this goal by consolidating its advantages in the science and technology industry. Obviously, the United States cannot let Chinese enterprises transfer their industries to the United States, so it can only “eat” its allies.
Why is the United States provoking the Russian Ukrainian war, and even trying to provoke conflicts in the Taiwan Strait and the peninsula? In addition to geographical factors, trying to force the industries of Europe, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan Province of China to transfer to the United States is also one of its core purposes.
The European Union is far from seeing through the conspiracy of the United States. Now it just feels that something is wrong, and the head of a department in the European Union has begun to feel it. You can take a look, including European Commission President von der Leyen, German Chancellor Scholz and British Prime Minister truss. When did these people pay close attention to industry and economy? They were all deceived by the United States. Their minds were full of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine. They were led by the nose by the United States and the Ukrainian government.
The EU has only realized what is wrong and has not yet realized that it has been cheated by the United States! Wait, there are still worse things to happen in the EU!