Original: yinguoming source wechat official account: Mingren Mingcha has been authorized to reprint
Since Biden came to power, why did Europe closely follow the US policy, acting as if Europe had given up its independence. Especially for China and Russia, the positions of the United States and Europe are increasingly converging. Especially since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europeans have done the most to punish Russia and bear the most cost. Even if they exacerbate the soaring internal prices and cause public dissatisfaction.
The biggest omission of Russia in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is that it underestimates the determination of Europe to cooperate with the United States.
Why should Europe cooperate with the United States so much? There have been many analytical articles. This paper attempts to uncover the mystery of the European position.
After trump stepped down, the Biden administration abandoned Trump’s “America first” policy, and Europe and the United States increasingly emphasized “common values”. In terms of China policy, Europe also began to follow suit.
On June 9, the European Parliament passed a resolution on unwarranted grounds to interfere in China’s internal affairs. In doing so, Europe is obviously cooperating with the United States.
This resolution of the European Parliament is not binding, but it is a key step to further establish and consolidate the political correctness of “Anti China” and converge with the United States in terms of position.
The United States and Europe have never arbitrarily constructed “political correctness”, but have strong pertinence and directivity, and are often the forerunner of public opinion to take major actions.
What big action should Europe take to establish “political correctness”? The greatest possibility is that, as we have analyzed, the United States, the United States and Europe, together with the seven western countries, form an inner circle of the United Front to curb China’s economic upgrading and disrupt China’s manufacturing competitiveness. In the future, this inner circle will be connected through the free trade or other agreements between the United States and Europe, the free trade between the United States and Japan, and the Indian Pacific Economic Framework led by the United States, so as to establish a global supply chain that repels the eastern powers, catch up from the low end to the high end, and comprehensively curb the manufacturing industry of the eastern powers.
In our previous article, we analyzed from the perspective of the ultimate decisive battle why the United States and Europe would unify their positions and take joint action on the issue of containing China. The fundamental reason is that the United States and Europe have found a common interest, and this common interest is premised on curbing China’s development. When China develops, they will not be able to enslave the world, they will not be able to continue to earn excess profits, the welfare society will not continue to play, and internal contradictions will intensify.
The United States and Europe have found common interests at this level, and even sacrificed immediate interests for this common interest. The scientific and technological war of the United States makes American enterprises face the real risk and loss of interests of losing the Chinese market.
The situation is becoming more and more clear. If Russia falls, the next goal of the west is China. This is not alarmism. It is an obvious thing.
If China wants to stop its development, it cannot. If the United States and the West want to give up their hostility to China, only China is weak enough for them to feel at ease. What kind of China would that be? Poor and weak, internal division, That’s what they want.
At present, the main power of Europe is still contained in Russia, so it is only establishing “political correctness” for greater actions against China.
Any fantasy about the United States and the West hurts itself. Russia is scarred in this regard, which provides us with a lesson from the past.
Russians and other former Soviets are full of desire to integrate into the Western order, destroying a powerful alliance of countries that can rival the whole west. They are in line with the West in terms of political and economic systems, but still can not stop the West’s hostility to Russia.
Russia believes that the United States, out of geopolitical requirements, is hostile to Russia in order to maintain the leadership of European security, and needs the confrontation between Russia and Europe. They placed their hopes on the European sense of independence and on closer cooperation between Europeans and Russia for the benefit of Europe. After all, Russia’s abundant and low-cost energy is just what Europe lacks, which is conducive to the cost competitiveness of European industries. “Beixi II” is beneficial to both Russia and Europe. Russia has enough defense against the United States, but has illusions about Europe. While abandoning US dollar assets, Russia has adopted more euros for foreign trade settlement, which is a great support for the status of the euro.
However, none of this has prevented Europe from being at the forefront of hostility and sanctions against Russia, and even more active than the United States. U.S. energy imports to Russia are increasing, while European sanctions have gradually reduced Russia’s energy imports. It is better to sacrifice the economy and let the people in Europe bear the cost of rising prices. We should still do so. The sanctions against Russia have been carried out for the sixth round, and even Russian oil, which is deeply dependent on Europe, has entered the sanctions list. At present, only Russian natural gas is still outside the sanctions list of the whole Europe, but the European sanctions have not stopped there. The communiqu é of the EU special summit held on May 30 and 31 stressed that Member States should, in the spirit of European solidarity, make preparations for possible major supply disruptions and improve the flexibility of the EU natural gas market. The EU is drafting the seventh round of sanctions against Russia, which will be extended to embargoed natural gas.
How determined Europe is to break with Russia.
For us, as long as the Russian problem is solved, the will of Europe will be more unified. Look at the resolution of the European Parliament. Among the European Parliamentarians from 27 member states, 513 were in favor of it and only 1 was against it. The resolution of the European Parliament also calls on all EU Member States to adjust their relations with China, and calls for a ban on the export of some Chinese goods to Europe.
Americans know it, and so do Europeans. Lies became their weapons. We all know that this is a false accusation, but we should continue to use it. The purpose of the United States is also the purpose of Europe, and the practice of the United States will become the practice of Europe.
First the United States, then Europe, regarded Anti China as “politically correct”, and played more and more cards. The situation and camp in the world are more and more farewell to chaos.
The Western camp, dominated by the United States and Europe, has increasingly high-profile unified its position with “common values”. In Europe, which is thousands of miles away, the parliament passed the so-called “report on the security challenges of the EU and the Indo Pacific” some time ago, claiming that China in the Indo Pacific region poses a threat to the interests of the EU. Isn’t this a blatant act of hooliganism?
Europe will even start pointing fingers on our East China Sea, South China Sea and Taiwan issues. As an old robber, the nature of Europe is no better than that of the United States.
Germany, which was once considered by experts to be the most important country in economic relations with China, is also turning. Declaring that “no matter how many mistakes the United States has made, the United States (and Britain under Prime Minister Johnson) is still much closer than Russia and China” is the mainstream media in Germany. The German media asked the government to show its determination to stand firmly on the western side led by the United States with practical actions.
When the “voice of Germany” Chinese website translated and reprinted the commentary, it also specially intercepted the sentence “the United States is better than China even if it is worse” as the title.
Special attention should be paid to this sentence: Germany must vigorously promote the revival of the west, and therefore must assume the role of European leader. This is the “historic change” that German politics and the German Chancellor should make.
I think the Chinese Internet still underestimates the weight of this sentence. This sentence uses the “Western Renaissance” corresponding to the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, which is meaningful. They believe that the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will lead to the decline of Western civilization. This is to put the relationship with China at the height of the competition between the two civilizations for correction and re positioning. This sentence provides the most accurate answer to the reasons for the shift of Europe’s China Policy: Europe has made a “historic change” at the height of “promoting the revival of the west” and chose to stand with the United States.
This reminds people of a sentence that macron once said: “the international order is being subverted in a new way, and I am sure that this is a major subversion in our history.” “It must be admitted that western hegemony may have come to an end.” This shows that Europe has long viewed China’s development from the perspective of the interests of the whole west.
If European countries escalate the issue to a contest between eastern and Western civilizations and believe that the rise of China is a crisis of the entire western hegemony, it will be difficult to turn back.
Europe has conducted research on the dependence of its major member states on China’s economy,. This kind of decision is obviously providing a basis for making major decisions.
In April this year, the European think tank network on China (ETNC) published the eighth Research Report on the dependence of European public sphere and political debate on China’s economy, dependence in Europe’s relations with China. The report involved 18 European countries and EU institutions, The economic relations between 18 European countries and China are analyzed. The core conclusion of the report: although it is generally believed that the dependence on China is increasing, the open debate and political views on China’s dependence in Europe are quite different. Europe is looking for a balance between openness and security. This sentence translates into the sentence in the daily mirror article: “we should not wander between China and the United States just for the sake of economic interests.”.
The alliance between the United States and the west is to prepare for an order and pattern that will determine the world for hundreds of years in the future. It is a contest between eastern and Western civilizations. Not only are we aware of the “great change” that has not occurred in a century that has redefined the status of eastern and Western civilizations, but the west is also aware of it.
Although there are conflicts of interest between the United States and Western countries, they will temporarily compromise with each other for the sake of “Western Renaissance” and their common interests.
Under the grand goal of “Western Renaissance”, the United States and Europe also have their own interests. What the United States is most concerned about is whether the leadership of the United States can be maintained. What Europe is most concerned about is realizing the Millennium dream of reunification and truly becoming a pole of the world.
If there is only the big goal of “Western Renaissance”, the United States cannot persuade Europe to jointly sanction Russia, because Russia also belongs to the category of Western civilization.
Europe is now working harder than the United States to sanction Russia. Within the United States and Europe, Europe has borne the biggest cost of comprehensive sanctions against Russia, and has not regretted to promote the de Russification of oil and natural gas, although it will bring strong pain (perhaps endless pain) to Europe.
Some people interpret the reason why Europe does this as the full penetration of American politics in Europe. I think it is not enough. Of course, this factor plays a role, but only this factor is not enough to support the EU to draw chestnuts from the fire for the United States. After all, it is an economic system of the same size as the United States, with a larger population than the United States, and a longer history of conspiracy than the United States. The European Union will not lose its independence so completely and completely give up its own demands for independence. Some EU member states can listen to the United States, but not all of them have lost themselves.
European politicians and the media are cooperating to exaggerate the threat of Russia. What is the purpose? However, everyone knows that Russia has lost the opportunity to participate in the world’s top competition. If it is not pushed to the point of no retreat, Russia is already defending.
The greatest possibility is to create a sense of crisis in Europe and promote Europe to form a closer union.
At present, EU member states have established a unified market, currency, tariff and basically unified security, defense and diplomacy. There are three main steps to go before they become a federal political entity: first, unified finance, second, completely unified security, defense and diplomacy, and third, the reform of the decision-making mechanism.
The European dream of great reunification has been around for at least a thousand years. Although no dream has come true so far, today’s EU is the closest to the dream.
As early as september1946, shortly after the end of World War II, British Prime Minister winstonchurchill proposed the establishment of the “United States of Europe”. Since the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1952, Europe has prepared for a full 70 years to achieve reunification. In order to become a true pole of the world, Europe still needs two crucial and most difficult steps to complete its reunification. First, it is difficult to balance the interests of member states in order to achieve financial unity among member states; Second, to build Europe’s own defense force, the difficulty lies in how to let the United States not obstruct it.
Common sense tells us that it is difficult to achieve something like a particularly difficult thing without the help of a certain crisis.
With the help of the public health events in 2020, the EU has taken an important step towards fiscal integration in 2021. After marathon negotiations, the EU has finally reached the largest fiscal expenditure plan in history. “This is a historic day for the European Union and the euro zone,” said French President macron The EU has historically reached an economic recovery fund of 750billion euros, of which 390billion euros are non repayable grants. This is a key step for the EU to build a common financial and credit foundation and achieve common finance.
With the help of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Germany approved a special national defense fund of 100billion euros (1 euro about 7.1 yuan) for the procurement of armaments and military modernization on the grounds of the deterioration of the regional security situation. Some media commented that this move indicates that Germany’s national defense and security policy will undergo major changes. Russia directly believes that Germany is “re militarizing”. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman zaharova said recently that the German Bundestag approved 100billion euros of special defense fund, which is the same as Germany’s arms expansion in the 1930s.
According to the so-called “strategic compass” plan, EU Member States will establish a joint combat force with land, sea and air capabilities by 2025, which is commonly known as the “European army”.
After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Hungary and other countries repeatedly used one vote to veto the EU’s common decision-making. Recently, the European Parliament passed a resolution with 355 votes in favour, 154 votes against and 48 abstentions, requesting the European Council to start the process of amending the EU treaty. The most important one is to change the voting principle from the current unanimous consent system to the future minority subordinate to the majority.
Europe is not only the cost bearer of the Russian Ukrainian conflict, but also uses the Russian Ukrainian conflict to solve some historical problems.
It is the most effective way to achieve a breakthrough by rendering external threats. The more external threats are exaggerated, the more likely internal disputes and conflicts will be restrained.
As a country, the debris geographical unit in history needs to establish a strong foreign enemy and external threat. There is also a reason why India has always hated us. They established Indian “Indian identity” by being hostile to China. Europe first needs Russia as such an external threat in order to bridge internal disputes. It did not play up enough sense of crisis. In the face of the bedfellows of 27 countries, it cancelled the veto power in the hands of each member state. Such a goal cannot be achieved. But as long as you create enough sense of crisis, everything is possible.
Of course, the United States does not want a unified Europe, but its own strength is declining. In order to contain the greatest threat they think, they have to transfer part of their power to Europe to give the green light on the issue of European reunification.
The important purpose of the United States in provoking the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is to prevent closer economic ties between Russia and Europe, and to prevent the emergence of a large Europe including the current EU and Russia. However, in order for Europe to actively cooperate, the United States must also give Europe some sufficient chips. The most attractive chip for Europe is the US commitment not to set obstacles to the realization of real European reunification.
Many people have been wondering how the United States made Europe so determined to follow its own after its power declined significantly? The measures that the United States can take are about the following: political infiltration (which has been analyzed earlier), public opinion kidnapping, exaggerating Russia’s threat to Europe, the contradiction between Christianity and the Orthodox Church, and ethnic identity.
But if it’s just these routines, we Chinese netizens can see clearly. On the contrary, European politicians are confused? This is not quite common sense.
Europe’s own voice of public opinion is not weak. Public opinion kidnapping can deal with other countries, but it is difficult to deal with Europe.
Russia’s comprehensive strength is no longer brilliant. Apart from its military strength, it does not pose a threat to Europe. On the contrary, Russia’s economy and Europe’s economy are obviously complementary. Far from being so hostile to Europe, Russia has always dreamed of integrating into Europe. Exaggerating Russia’s threat will make it hard for Europe to follow suit.
The conflict between Christianity and the Orthodox Church alone cannot make Europe willing to pay such a high price. Europe is not so religious. They didn’t do much that religion didn’t allow them to do. Poland also believes in the Orthodox Church, which did not affect its integration into Europe.
Is it because “tear off the face of a Russian and you will find a Tatar?” Even if Europeans think that Russians are of Mongolian descent and have discrimination, the most is to stay at a distance. There is no need to carry it to the end with Russia.
After these possibilities are eliminated one by one, the greater (if not the only) possibility is that the United States has given Europe a commitment with enough temptation. Only then will Europe be so willing to make choices at the expense of immediate interests.
What kind of temptation can the United States give Europe, so that Europe is willing to rush to the front line of sanctions against Russia and bear the cost of 800 self losses?
The greatest possibility is to meet the European dream of reunification. The United States cannot tolerate the alliance between Europe and Russia. This is one of the three situations in the big chess game that may lead to the loss of the hegemonic status of the United States. However, with the decline of us power, it is possible for the us to untie Europe and realize the dream of reunification. Moreover, it also takes time to realize this dream. The United States first promised that after solving the problem of Russia and then the great powers in the East, there would be time and opportunity to make the EU only a short distance from the dream, but it would become an eternal distance.
In this way, it seems that some unexplained places can be explained.
After the Social Democratic Party became the main ruling party in Germany, great changes took place in German policy. As early as 1925, the Social Democratic Party proposed that Europe establish a unified country in Europe following the American model. In 2017, Schultz, the then chairman of the Social Democratic Party, said at the Party Congress that a common European constitutional document should be formulated by 2025 and the “United States of Europe” should be established accordingly. 2025 marks the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the “United States of Europe” by the Social Democratic Party.
On May 16, Hungarian prime minister Orban accused the EU of “abusing power” in his speech to the parliament on May 16, saying that the EU leadership is seeking to weaken the sovereignty of Member States and establish a “United States of Europe”.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine marks that the world has officially entered the stage of great changes in the past century. Europeans are also working hard to realize the Millennium dream of Europe by using the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Don’t think of Europe as a fool.
“Anti China” has become the political correctness of the United States and is becoming the mainstream ideology of European politicians. The reason why it has not been implemented from ideology to action is mainly because Europe is dragged down by Russia, and Europe cannot bear the consequences of decoupling from Chinese manufacturing while decoupling from Russian energy. No matter how much Europe wants to cooperate with the United States’ China policy as soon as possible, it is still powerless for the time being.
For the common interests of the United States and Europe, for the “rejuvenation of the west” and for the “European Republic”, Europe increasingly does not hide its strategic intentions. To see this clearly will help us to see more clearly the direction of the great changes in the past century, have fewer illusions and get ready earlier.