This article is reproduced from Niu tanqin (ID: bullpiano) with authorization by Niu tanqin
Don’t think it’s unusual. These three recent events are changing the world.
Even what I want to say is not the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, nor the crisis in the Taiwan Strait, nor the changes in the Middle East. We can see at a glance the major changes. However, these three events seem very small, but they have far-reaching effects.
First, India overtook Britain to become the world’s fifth largest economy.
What’s the significance?
We may not have much feeling, after all, we have already surpassed it. But it has far-reaching significance for India, Britain and the world. This is a historic milestone.
This should be another former colony that overtook Britain after the United States overtook the British Empire 100 years ago. What is more different is that the United States and Britain are both Anglo Saxon nations, but India is an inferior nation that was discriminated against by Britain.
But now, India has overtaken the former suzerain state and will still lead by a large margin.
This is the authoritative data of IMF:
In 2022, India’s GDP will surpass that of the UK in all respects;
In fact, in the fourth quarter of 2021, India’s GDP has exceeded that of the United Kingdom;
This year’s surpassing speed will accelerate. In the first quarter, India’s GDP reached 854.7 billion US dollars, while the UK’s was only 816 billion US dollars;
By 2027, India’s GDP will exceed that of Britain by 20%.
Britain has been completely left behind by India, and the five major countries in the world in the future are:
The United States
China
Japan
Germany
India.
Considering India’s demographic dividend and latecomer advantage, this ranking will change a lot.
For India, 2022 is undoubtedly a historic year. For Britain, being overtaken by the colonies again, the British Empire can only be a dream. Of course, for China, whether we like it or not, we can’t underestimate India.
After all, according to IMF data, India’s GDP growth rate may reach 7% in 2022.
The second thing is that the United States acted like a rogue by not granting Russia a United Nations visa.
Russia strongly protested that the UN General Assembly was about to open, and Foreign Minister Lavrov’s visa had not yet been obtained. Moreover, the United States has not given a visa to the 56 Russian diplomats this time.
The United Nations is headquartered in New York, and without a US visa, even as a founding member, Russia has no choice.
This should not have happened. Because according to the agreement reached between the United Nations and the United States in 1947, the United States, as the host country, has the obligation to allow diplomats of Member States to enter the United Nations.
But agreement is agreement and reality is reality. The United States, on the other hand, cheats and claims that “the United States has conscientiously fulfilled its obligations as the host country of the United Nations”.
As for the delay of the Russian visa, the United States also concluded that it was because the Russian side “forcibly terminated the work of local and third country employees in the US embassy in Russia”.
But bilateral relations are bilateral relations, and this is the United Nations.
The United Nations is also weak. According to the spokeswoman of secretary general Guterres, China is in “close contact” with the United States on the rules under the 1947 agreement.
In the past, the United States refused to grant visas to Iran’s foreign minister; Now, the United States is again attacking the Russian Foreign Minister. If you don’t like anyone, you will punish them, regardless of the occasion. As for the spirit of contract, does it still exist?
Therefore, it is no wonder that Russia has called for the UN headquarters to be moved out of New York and to a neutral country.
Moving is going to cost a lot, not to mention moving to the United Nations. This is indeed unrealistic in the short term. But in the long run, if the United States keeps doing this, isn’t it forcing the United Nations to move?
As a joke, I wonder if xiongan has reserved a plot of land.
The third thing is that Japan’s population is shrinking, and more people are dying than newborns.
For Japan, this is the biggest crisis.
Because it is very simple, economic growth will fluctuate, which is also very important, but at least it will not immediately affect the national capital; However, the population issue will undoubtedly affect Japan’s future.
There are fewer and fewer Japanese.
The latest data shows that in the first half of 2022 (from January to June), the number of newborns in Japan was 384900, a decrease of more than 20000 over the same period of the previous year. This number is the lowest since 2000, and is below 400000 for the first time.
With this trend, Japan’s newborn population will not exceed 800000 in 2022.
But how many people die in Japan a year?
According to last year’s data, 1.44 million people died.
That is to say, the number of Japanese will be reduced by at least 600000 this year.
Although many countries are also facing population problems, the Japanese have to admit that among the 20 countries with the largest population in the world, only Japan’s population is continuously decreasing.
What is more serious is aging. Data show that the elderly aged 65 and above in Japan now account for nearly 30% of the total population.
You should know that even in Italy, the oldest country in the west, the proportion of the elderly population is only 23.6%, which is much lower than Japan.
But once aging begins, it is difficult to reverse it. According to the projections of research institutions, the proportion of Japan’s elderly population will exceed 30% by 2025 and reach 35.3% by 2040
Don’t laugh, we Chinese. We also face very serious challenges. From this perspective, although South Korea and Japan are often at odds, China, Japan and South Korea are really in a difficult situation.
You should know that South Korea has recently set another world record – in 2021, the fertility rate of South Korea (that is, the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime) was 0.81, the lowest in the world, and decreased by 0.03% compared with the previous year.
To maintain population growth, a country needs a fertility rate of 2.1, that is, a couple has more than two children on average. In this respect, South Korea is even worse than Japan, and its total population is shrinking.
If there were no people, would Japan still have such influence today? Is Korea still as enterprising as it is today?
From this perspective, we must admire India’s advantage of being a latecomer. Looking at nothing else, India’s birth rate makes China, Japan and South Korea envious. Modi’s words are: what miracles can’t be created in a country with 800 million young people?
It is worth mentioning that India will overtake China and become the world’s most populous country by next year at the latest.
Of course, there are many great events in the world every day. However, the three events mentioned above are not earth shaking, but have a powerful power to change the world.
We used to talk about “surpassing Britain and catching up with the United States”. We have already achieved “surpassing Britain” and “catching up with the United States” is still on the way (if we only refer to steel production, we would have been far ahead). But looking back, India is also “surpassing Britain”. The world pattern has really changed.
Because of India, because of its potential, and because of India’s heart knot, we have no choice but to upgrade and continue to develop.
The more worried countries are about being surpassed, the more conservative their mentality is, and the more they will adopt abusive practices. Therefore, it is difficult for the Russian foreign minister to go to the United Nations now.
However, I always feel that such a practice is a drastic measure to the United Nations and a humiliation to the Secretary General of the United Nations. Judging from the face of the United States in this way, in the long run, the United Nations may really have to move.
Of course, all the preconditions still have to be people, a large number of people, young people.
Japan and South Korea are all developed countries now, but no matter how developed the economy, advanced science and technology, and prosperous the culture, there are no more people. Where is the future of the country?
Of course, the United States, Germany and China, both developed and underdeveloped, are just laughing at one hundred steps on this issue.
I advise the Lord of heaven to regain his vigor and cultivate talents without sticking to one pattern. Oh, let’s not talk about talents, let’s “reduce the population without sticking to one pattern”. With enough people, there will always be talents. Young people, come on.