Author: brother Mao this article is reproduced under the authorization of official account brother Mao’s vision (ID: maogeshijue).
Yesterday, I chatted with a friend about the education of children. The friend was there and lamented that it is too difficult for children nowadays.
For example, he has only one daughter, who is 8 years old this year. The girl’s mother signed up for many training classes this summer, such as painting, calligraphy, dancing and English. Finally, she signed up for an accelerated Olympiad math class. She took the Olympiad math class for 20 days and then took the exam. As a result, the girl was at a loss when she saw the Olympiad math paper. She could not do it and was afraid of her mother’s scolding. Finally, she collapsed and sat in the examination room crying loudly.
I asked him why he signed up for so many training courses for his children?
My friend sighed that there is no way. Now the pressure of competition is too great. If we don’t train our children some skills, we are worried that they will not be able to survive in the future competition.
Then he asked me, how many training courses have you enrolled your child (my child is about the same age as his daughter)?
I replied that I am a Buddhist, mainly depending on the child’s wishes. If the child is interested, he can report a little. If he is not interested, he can play at home.
My friend was a little surprised. Aren’t you worried about your children’s future survival?
I replied that I was not worried at all. Your anxiety about children is totally unreasonable. Our children will face a completely different environment in the future!
My friend immediately asked me why, and then I said a few points.
one
employment pressure
First, the pressure of employment competition is different.
Let’s take the present as an example for comparison.
There are 1.41 billion people in the country, and about 740 million people are employed, including about 80 million in the system (40 million in state-owned enterprises and 40 million in government civil servants + career staff), then 200 million in the official term “flexible employment”, and the rest are about 460 million who have serious jobs.
Note here that the reference standard of the official description of “flexible employment” is that you can buy social security and medical insurance for yourself. In my opinion, even if they can buy social security and medical insurance for themselves, many people may not have a stable source of income.
So, what’s the situation now? There are only 540 million jobs in China that can provide a direct and stable source of income (we don’t consider 200 million people with flexible employment for the time being).
So, why do people think that the job market is so voluminous? Why is it so hard to find a job? There is a huge gap between job supply and employment demand.
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We set the future as 2040 (about 18 years later). It is conservatively estimated that China’s GDP will be about 2.5 times that of today, that is, the per capita GDP will be more than 25000 US dollars (which is a little lower than the official forecast target).
Under such circumstances, how many jobs can the whole society provide?
Theoretically, the current national algorithm is that an increase of 1% of GDP can create 2 million new jobs. If GDP increases by 250%, it can theoretically create 500 million new jobs, and the overall number of jobs can almost double.
But in fact, if China’s GDP is to be increased by 2.5 times, then industrial upgrading must be realized, that is, our labor efficiency will be greatly improved. At the same time, considering the widespread application of intelligence in the future, it will also replace a large number of jobs (for example, parking lot charging, supermarket cashier and other jobs have also begun to be unmanned).
Therefore, even if our GDP increases by 2.5 times in the future, the number of jobs will not increase much. To be conservative, we still calculate according to only 540 million jobs.
Then how many workers will there be?
Give a set of population data of different age groups.
About 217 million people after 60.
About 224 million people after the 1970s.
About 219 million people were born after the 1980s.
There were about 188 million post-90s people.
About 147 million people after 2000.
About 146 million people in 10 years.
By 2040, all the post-60s and Post-70s will retire, and then the post-00s and post-10s will take over, resulting in the following changes in the working age:
147 million + 146 million – 217 million – 224 million = – 148 million.
The number of people of working age decreased by 148 million.
We use the current 740 million-148 million = 592 million.
So by 2040, 540 million jobs will be created for 592 million people of working age.
Does it look like there is still a gap of 52 million?
But don’t forget that all the above are based on the most conservative estimates, including GDP growth of 2.5 times and no increase in employment; Secondly, all the 200 million flexible employees are considered as unemployed. In fact, at least half of the 200 million flexible employees have stable income.
Therefore, after all these calculations, in 2040, the problem of the shortage of school-age labor is not a gap between the number of jobs and the number of jobs, but a shortage of school-age labor.
From 2040 to 2050, the gap between supply and demand in the employment market will continue to expand, because 219 million people after the 1980s retired, and then 140 million people after the 20th century, which is estimated to top it. In this way, there will be an additional 80 million manpower gap.
Therefore, in the future, our children’s employment will not be so competitive and voluminous as it is now, but will be fully guaranteed. The country’s headache is the shortage of age-appropriate labor.
It is estimated that the final solution is basically to follow the path of Europe and the United States and introduce low-end labor from backward countries, such as Filipino maids from the Philippines and Vietnamese wives from Vietnam.
Of course, the state will also introduce policies to protect the employment rights of its nationals, such as tax incentives for employers to employ their own citizens.
Secondly, there will be no burden on children in 2040, that is, there will be no three mountains on our generation.
two
Three mountains
Which three mountains are gone?
Housing, education and medical care.
Let’s talk about it one by one.
The first is the house.
The living conditions of our generation, especially those in their 60s and 70s, are very poor when they work. Until 1999, China’s per capita living area was only 8 square meters, which was basically old and small.
However, our per capita living area is now 40 square meters, and by 2040, the per capita living area will reach 55-60 square meters, which is already the level of the first few developed countries. Where can children still have the pressure to buy a house?
Does the child need to buy a house? The family sold the surplus house and replaced it. The combination of the two families is more than 500 square meters. It is easy to replace a house for the child.
What’s more, the concept of children in the future may not be the same as ours. Children in the future may prefer those long-term rental apartments with fine decoration, more avant-garde tone and more reasonable layout. It’s very comfortable to replace them every 10 years!
I don’t need to buy a house or a car.
At present, the number of private cars in China is about 300 million, and about 27 million are sold every year. According to this data, in 20 years, China’s private cars will exceed 700 million.
But this is impossible.
The main reason is that due to the hard constraints of our land resources (garages and roads), the number of private cars in Chinese households can never reach more than 600 million.
Therefore, very early on, our Minister Wan Gang proposed the development path of private cars with Chinese characteristics – private cars + sharing economy.
Now it is shared in the form of online car hailing, and in the future it will be directly shared in the smart car mode.
In the future, after our children go out, they will come to the garage, randomly select a smart electric vehicle, scan the code and start it (many smart electric vehicles now support mobile phone operation), drive to the destination, find a place to stop and leave.
If it is a cross provincial tourism, it is easier. Now our high-speed railway is 8 vertical and 8 horizontal. In 20 years, it is highly possible to realize 16 vertical and 16 horizontal. Basically, every county has high-speed railway, and most prefecture level cities have airports. The children also scan the code to take a shared car to the airport (high-speed railway station), take a plane (high-speed railway) to the destination, and then scan the code to drive to the hotel.
In other words, in the next 20 years, children’s living conditions will be very different from those at present. The intelligent sharing mode will deeply affect their lives, and buying a car will not be the mainstream.
Then there is education.
We will soon be able to realize compulsory education from kindergarten to high school (including vocational middle school). By 2040, our country will have solved the problem of compulsory education at University, that is, children’s children will be free from kindergarten to university, and there will be a free lunch at noon.
Not only is education free of charge, but the level of education must be better from generation to generation.
When I took the college entrance examination in 1992, Chongqing was still Sichuan. In that year, 230000 students took part in the college entrance examination in Sichuan, 30000 were admitted from college or above, with an admission rate of more than 10%. By 2020, the number of students taking the college entrance examination nationwide was 10.7 million, and 9.8 million were admitted, with an admission rate of more than 90%. Also in 2020, the number of 985 and 211 students in China was about 800000.
That is to say, if students who were able to pass the college entrance examination in 1992 are reincarnated to take the college entrance examination in 2020, there is a high probability that they will pass 985 and 211 – this is the dividend of reincarnation.
This trend will be more obvious in the future. After the fertility rate drops and the secondary school entrance examination is diverted, the proportion of 985 and 211 students taking the college entrance examination in the next few years will increase from about 7% in 2020 to 20% at once, and will increase to about 40% in 2040!
We should not worry about the diversion of the high school entrance examination. In the future, the development trend of vocational schools in China is to learn from Germany – vocational schools are upgraded to universities.
This is the case in Germany now. Students with professional skills who graduate from vocational universities are far more popular in the job market than those who graduate from ordinary universities. Their salaries are also higher.
Finally, medical treatment.
At present, the basic trend in China is that the scope of medical insurance reimbursement is expanding every year, and the proportion of reimbursement will increase in a few years. Therefore, by 2040, children will only have to pay a symbolic fee for medical treatment, and most of the nine valent vaccines and targeted drugs for special diseases will be reimbursed by medical insurance.
Summarize the environment our children (after 10) will face when they grow up in the future.
The employment environment is very friendly, the number of jobs is always greater than the number of job seekers, there is no pressure to buy a house or a car, the education of children is fully covered by the state, and the medical care is reimbursed by the state.
As long as their income can meet the basic living expenses, the state also provides various perfect welfare.
Friends of the Post-70s and post-80s, think about it. In fact, we have also made a lot of money in the past 20 years, but most of the money has been spent on such major expenses as buying a house, installing a house and buying a car. Would our quality of life be much better without these pressures?
So, why can our children live such a happy life?
Because our generation has laid a good foundation for them!
In more than 20 years, our generation has endured hardships, bought 56 billion square meters of commercial housing, built hundreds of thousands of kilometers of high-speed rail, thousands of airports, thousands of bridges, and nearly 10 million communication base stations, which have made thousands of cities look new. The most important thing is to let our children achieve the most difficult industrial upgrading before they work.
By 2040, the national infrastructure construction will also be completed, so a large amount of financial resources can be saved to provide better welfare for the labor force of the right age.
We are so tired and hard, and the purpose is to let the children live a happy and safe life in the future!
Press: when I write here, some people may have doubts. Can the per capita GDP of 25000 US dollars reach the above-mentioned living standard? It seems that countries with a per capita GDP of 25000 US dollars have not reached the above level.
China is a very special country. At present, our per capita GDP is about US $10000, ranking 70th in the world. However, the actual living standard of our people is far higher than that of a country with a per capita GDP of US $10000.
Our per capita food consumption (meat, aquatic products, eggs, vegetables and fruits) has reached the entry level of developed countries;
Including that our per capita living area has reached the average level of developed countries;
Our public transport facilities and communication facilities have reached the world’s leading-edge level;
The reasons for all this are very complex, including the undervaluation of the RMB exchange rate, the undervaluation of our GDP, the complete range of industries, the independence of staple grains, and the fact that we are a socialist country.
Therefore, if our GDP can be increased by 2.5 times, it is absolutely no problem to reach the above-mentioned living standards.
three
Burning passion
This is the reason why I compare the education of children with that of Buddhism. In the future, the environment they will face will be very friendly. There is no need to force children to suffer. It is meaningless to toss about these futures.
Some people may say that I am now strict with my child in the hope that he will lead a better life in the future, and that he will be superior to the blue.
You are wrong to think so.
Children’s future environment is very different from our era.
What era has the past 30 years been?
It is no exaggeration to say that it is a
An era of burning passion.
In the past 30 years, about 300 million Chinese people have realized the class leap, and realized the dream of a middle-class family with a car and a house with nothing.
However, this is not the norm of normal society.
Please remember that the realization of class leapfrogging by large-scale population must be a special phenomenon that can be realized only when the whole society is undergoing drastic changes. The past three decades are just such a rare era.
In the 1990s, when the market economy was launched, there was a sudden market-oriented period of material shortage. In that period, as long as you were working in fast-moving consumer goods and had a little marketing sense, you could make a fortune if you were willing to smash advertising.
Qinchi wine, a small brand that people may not have heard of nowadays, spent money on CCTV to shoot a king in a certain year, and then became famous in the first war. It sold more than 10 billion yuan that year.
Dealers from all over the world came in droves, brandishing cheques to ask for wine. Qinchi could not solve this capacity at all. It could only collect all the wine from nearby distilleries and replace it with a new package. It also made a lot of money.
In the 1990s, Russia and Central Asian countries were suddenly faced with the problem of commodity shortage due to the external disintegration of the Soviet Union. Mou Qizhong brought 10 carts of China’s most common light industrial products (pots, pans, bowls, bowls, sandals, socks, etc.) to Russia and replaced them with four aircraft, which earned 400 million!
400 million in the 1990s.
Therefore, a large number of Chinese bullies have flocked to Russia. As long as they can bring Chinese goods, they will become rich immediately.
This is the 1990s, and then the 21st century. There are three major opportunities in the first 20 years of the 21st century – foreign trade, real estate and the Internet.
Foreign trade is the global market opened by China’s accession to the WTO. As long as you open a factory to do foreign trade, you will hardly have to worry about selling it in the first 10 years of the 21st century! The order can be scheduled to the next year.
Then there is real estate. This industry has been growing by more than 30% every year for nearly 20 years, driving hundreds of industries to dance, and creating how many wealth myths? A little sister in the sales department can easily buy a house by working casually for two years.
Then there is the Internet. Ten years ago, I did Taobao tmall. Seven or eight years ago, I did wechat. In the last two years, I did short videos. How many miracles and wealth have the surging Internet created?
The above waves of great era dividends have created the miracle that 300 million Chinese people have achieved class leap.
However, the era of burning passion is over.
The dividend of commodity shortage, the dividend of urbanization and real estate, the dividend of China’s accession to the WTO, and the dividend of the Internet have all ended or are about to end.
four
Children’s future
Our children’s future is a plain and prosperous era.
There is no economic cycle with big ups and downs, no sudden gold mining opportunities in the industry, no rapid economic growth, and there is no possibility that a large number of people can achieve class leap.
Most of the time, personal success depends on the dividend of the times. Without the dividend of the times, it is unrealistic to expect children to achieve much, and it will make children very hard and tired.
It’s completely unnecessary.
Of course, that is not to say that children will not be able to cross social strata in the future. The high-tech industry in the first tier cities in the future will still be full of challenges and opportunities, but these challenges and opportunities need talented and diligent young people to grasp. I think the lifestyle of most people is probably like this. Having a stable job and then developing their hobbies.
In the future, children will be faced with an era of steady and low-speed economic growth. In fact, this is not bad. The era of burning passion has brought countless opportunities to our generation, but also made most people full of anxiety, fearing that they will be left behind by the times if they pause a little.
Children in the future do not have so much anxiety and desire. Their spirit is healthy, and their face is full of sunshine and confidence.
I think it’s very good.
Finally, let’s end this article with a description of the long-term goals formulated by the ruling party. This goal is actually to describe the environment our children will face in the future——
From 2035 to the middle of this century, on the basis of basically realizing modernization, we will strive for another 15 years to build China into a rich, strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful modern socialist country. By then, China’s material civilization, political civilization, spiritual civilization, social civilization and ecological civilization will be upgraded in an all-round way, the country’s governance system and governance capacity will be modernized, the country will become a leading country in terms of comprehensive national strength and international influence, the common prosperity of all the people will be basically realized, the Chinese people will enjoy a happier and healthier life, and the Chinese nation will stand tall among the nations of the world with a more lofty attitude.
Bless you, children! This article is reproduced under the authorization of official account cat brother’s vision (ID: maogeshijue).