Author: Sheng Tang rushong source wechat official account: the chief shopkeeper’s knife has been authorized to reprint
At the end of this month, one of the two European Conferences concerned has ended, that is, the seven nation summit held in Germany. Next, there will be a NATO summit in Madrid, Spain.
Perhaps the main outcome of these two summits is to formally put the dual track of the future world on the agenda. This is a trend of world development in the future, and no country can stop it. For example, Germany publicly appealed at the G-7 summit not to take tough measures against China, which would force China and Russia to form a world independent of the western system. However, the current German government, even its internal unity, is not good. Under the impact of the Russian Ukrainian war, there is no capital that led the common occurrence of the EU in the era of Merkel. Therefore, Germany’s remarks can only be regarded as a small wave under the spring tide. It seems to be right, but in fact there is no strength.
Although the entire G-7 summit has not divided the world in two, it is also actively preparing for it. Just because the current war between Russia and Ukraine is too eye-catching, how to increase sanctions against Russia and how to help Ukraine achieve “victory” have become the main topics of the seven nation summit. Of course, the G-7 summit has also put forward several fancy proposals that are not suitable for China. For example, the G-7 smashed the pot version of the global infrastructure plan I mentioned yesterday. Whether it is painting cakes or smashing the pot, China’s external construction of the the Belt and Road can not be stopped. Even if the G-7 join hands, it can not be stopped, because the current needs of countries around the world for their own infrastructure upgrading are real. If China cannot be defeated by means of competition, What the seven countries have done is just to make this process difficult and slow, but it will never stop the momentum of progress. What’s more, countries like Germany, Italy and France will choose to cooperate with China rather than dig holes.
The G7 also wants to formulate a plan to force Russia to sell oil and gas resources at a low price. This is because after a long walk, the United States and Europe found that the world would not be able without Russian energy. The stubborn refusal of the United States and Europe would only make countries such as China and India eat better and drink more. Therefore, Americans feel that China and India should not be allowed to take advantage of this. Instead, they should find a way to talk with Russia. As long as it is willing to sell energy to Europe and the United States at a low price, Europe and the United States can also partially liberalize energy sanctions against Russia. This may seem like a daydream, but since the Americans put it forward, it will certainly be operable to a certain extent. Let’s wait and see. But Russia’s current interest is no longer in this. Putin is thinking of doing a big thing these days [my guess]
Both the seven nation version of the the Belt and Road and the further sanctions against Russia are actually pushing China and Russia in the same direction step by step. In the end, China and Russia cannot stand together. Finally, the West has finally ushered in the new cold war situation that they are worried about and afraid of. But they will never admit that this result was forced step by step by themselves. Instead, they are complacent that they have foresight.
The following NATO summit will make this dual track differentiation more obvious. A few days ago, Turkey announced that it had withdrawn its opposition to rifen’s joining NATO. The reason is very simple. Through the continuous work of the United States and NATO, Sweden and Finland promised not to ban the export of Turkish weapons, but also promised to cooperate in the extradition of Kurds by Turkey. That is to say, Turkey’s initial goal has been achieved. But in fact, the Turks wanted more, including the restoration of all Turkish rights and interests by the United States in the F35 project. Of course, these are all asking exorbitant prices and paying back money. Erdogan is already satisfied that Europe can try not to embarrass Turkey on the Kurdish issue. After all, the benefits gained from Europe this time are tantamount to falling from the sky. Turkey didn’t spend half a cent, so the arrogant Europeans took out their pockets.
However, it also shows that the relationship between Turkey and Russia has reached this height. It is impossible for Turkey to block the gun for Russia. Turkey is also clearly telling Russia that it is still a member of NATO and that Turkey can only stand on the side of NATO when it comes to the principled interests of NATO. This statement will undoubtedly cool Putin’s back.
Then there is South Korea, which will sign relevant agreements with NATO in the second half of this year. This shows that the pace of the Asia Pacific version of NATO has also started. As for Japan, it is easy to say that what it is seeking now is not to join NATO, not that it is unwilling, but that it is ineligible. If the United States and NATO are willing to let it Rearm and gain the power of foreign war, Japan will not hesitate to join NATO for a day. For the possible polarization of the world in the future. Japan is the most adventurous country. Because both Russia and China have long-standing territorial grievances against Japan, as well as territorial disputes in reality. The possibility of Japan joining this group is extremely low. Because once it joins, Japan’s own territorial needs will not be met. Only by joining the United States can it satisfy its obsession with territorial expansion. What’s more, it is a dog pinched by the United States. Therefore, with the further approach of South Korea and NATO, the establishment of the Asia Pacific version of NATO will happen sooner or later.
Of course, the above is only the plan of the United States. In this plan, South Korea is actually in an important position. It goes without saying that Australia will certainly follow the United States, while Japan still needs time to make legal changes. Only South Korea belongs to a country that belongs to the United States but is still a good family in name. Moreover, South Korea’s dependence on China and the United States in terms of economic interests is basically equal. If the influence and binding factors of the United States on South Korea through various means are deducted, South Korea’s dependence on China is greater than that of the United States. Therefore, it is a task that the United States must complete to make South Korea a bridgehead for the United States in Asia. That’s why we saw Yin Xiyue on stage. So we can see that South Korea and NATO have come closer recently. These are not sudden events, but part of the overall global planning of the United States.
That’s why we say that all the phenomena we have seen are following the steps planned by the United States. Although some countries in Europe want to struggle, the struggle is ineffective. But will America’s plan work? Do China and Russia have no power to fight back because of what they have done? Of course not.
On June 25, President Lukashenko of Belarus met with Putin in St. Petersburg. On the same day, a Russian rocket force attacked Ukraine from the direction of Belarus. On June 28, Russian President Putin visited Tajikistan and Turkmenistan and prepared to attend the Caspian Sea summit in Turkmenistan. [this summit is also Putin’s preparation for the next step] according to Putin’s itinerary, after the Caspian Sea summit, Putin will not directly return to Moscow, but go to Grodno state in Belarus. The location of this state is very sensitive. It is located at the border of Belarus, Lithuania and Poland. The nearest land distance between it and Kaliningrad is only 60 kilometers.
We should all know that Kaliningrad has been blocked by Lithuania recently. If Russia really wants to start and open up this land channel, Grodno state will be the front line. On June 30, President Joko of Indonesia visited Russia. [at this time, the state leaders visiting Moscow are very important to Russia. After two days of tiring in Central Asia, Putin did not return to Moscow to meet important guests, but went to the borders of Lithuania, Poland and Belarus. Obviously, he had important things to see in person.
This is roughly Russia’s response to the two track world: if you want two tracks, then give you two tracks. It’s just a fight. I can integrate Belarus with Kaliningrad by the way, so as to save some small countries from forcing them all day. Although Putin may not really do it. But according to his troops deployed in Belarus and his visit to Grodno at this sensitive time point, the meaning of the action is very clear, at least for westerners.
As for East Asia, China should also take the initiative. According to the current style of Japan and South Korea, tolerance will only lead to more arrogance, and modesty will only lead to more humiliation. Only by opening up the situation can we break through the United States’ step-by-step pressure. The United States has upgraded the world to a war mode. What business model we are still seeking will suffer a great loss. Of course, since Putin is ready, we are not really a business model. Otherwise, what would Dalian and Shanghai do with so many dumplings?
Go out and make dumplings and go home. When the dumplings are ready, it’s time to go out.