Author: Sheng Tang Rusong Source WeChat official account: The Shopkeeper’s Dao has been reprinted with authorization
On November 4 earlier this month, US White House Security Assistant Sullivan paid a surprise visit to Ukraine. Later, Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed his willingness to hold peace talks with Russia. This is considered to be the performance of the United States in persuading Ukraine to agree to the negotiations. However, Zerensky’s demands for Russia’s full withdrawal from the former territory of Ukraine [including Crimea] and Russia’s need to compensate for the war losses in this conflict were also regarded as insincere by everyone. Ten days later, CIA Director Burns also visited Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and held talks with Zerensky on all important issues. After the talks, Zelensky told the media that Putin also expressed his willingness to negotiate.
Winter is coming, and it is snowing in Ukraine. I saw a picture: several Ukrainian soldiers were lying on their sides in a trench full of water, with their faces exhausted, guarding the position. The reason why this picture left a deep impression on me was that it was very similar to the scene in a western war movie I had seen before: a group of European soldiers scurried to and fro in muddy trenches and tunnels, and the elements of blood and fire in the war were completely replaced by that kind of dirty and dull boredom. The so-called beauty of war, the cruelty of war, and the so-called justice of family and country are all left with only one feeling on the muddy battlefield: go home quickly, clean kang and warm family. At that moment, everyone is most eager for something.
The United States, which supports Ukraine and Russia most, is the first country to ask Ukraine and Russia to hold negotiations. This is unthinkable. But it is true that Americans taught Zerensky how to do it. But Americans will never really want Ukraine to compromise with Russia. Unless Russia really agrees to Zelensky’s request, which is impossible. Immediately after the meeting between Sullivan and Zelensky, he announced at the press conference that he had brought 72 main battle tanks and 250 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. This is a gift that every senior American official must bring to Ukraine. You said that there are really not many people who take this kind of gift to persuade others to fight. It’s like you tried to persuade two people not to fight, but you gave one of them a knife. Everyone knows the purpose of the person who tries to persuade others to fight.
Why do Americans give knives and persuade others to fight at the same time? There are two reasons.
One is that the winter of Ukraine is really coming. Although it is a difficult thing for both warring parties, winter is much more suitable for the Russian army, which has sufficient logistic supplies and can deploy military materials uniformly. There is a good saying that “Russians are never defeated in winter.” This is true in history. Both Napoleon and Hitler were badly beaten by Russians in winter. This is mainly because in the cold land of Eastern Europe, the Russian army can still maintain a strong combat effectiveness, while the armies of other countries cannot adapt to such a battlefield. Although Ukraine is fighting on its own land, at present, a large part of its fighters are mercenaries from NATO countries. Another important point is that Russia’s weapons and equipment are designed and manufactured based on its own climate and geographical environment, which is very suitable for the current battlefield. However, the weapons used by Ukrainians are more assisted by NATO countries, with different brands, which are not suitable for unified distribution and operation. They are also prone to problems in the climate environment. In a life and death duel, if something goes wrong suddenly, it will not be a duel but a massacre. Therefore, in this winter, the United States hopes to make the front line in Urumqi stop and not give Russia a reason to show its sword.
The second is that Europeans are really bored. Unlike the United States, Europe can take advantage of the dollar to spill over high inflation to the world. In Europe, inflation in October was in double figures. In this case, the strike tide of European countries demanding higher wages and reducing inflation keeps rising one after another. Although this winter is still awesome, Europe has not seen severe cold weather so far, but Europeans who are not cold and have cold pockets are still unable to resist. Moreover, they can throw Ukraine as a beggar to show their superiority. But if they want to donate their coats and underpants to Ukraine, they are absolutely unwilling. From the repeated statements made by German President Schultz, Europe is really unwilling to pay for Ukraine. Although Europeans themselves dare not let Ukraine negotiate a truce [because Zerensky will point at their nose and swear], they can open the door of their arsenal to the Americans and Zerensky to see: What a shame? Not much! In recent days, many European countries have disclosed that their arsenals have bottomed out because of assistance to Ukraine. In order to make Germany obedient and let Poland ask for World War II reparations, the United States did it. It can be seen that its ability to check and balance European countries is also weakening.
Based on the above two reasons, [of course, there are other aspects], the United States hopes to show Europe that it is not Zelensky who wants to fight, but Zelensky who wants to ‘defend the country’. You can’t help but let others fight. As one of the biggest beneficiaries of European and American values, although Europeans have been tired of supporting Ukraine, they still have no face to persuade others not to do it because they really want to do it themselves. So Sullivan does this to give Europeans face and hope. After all, Russia is not the only adversary set by the United States. In this winter, it still needs to be busy in East Asia, which also needs the cooperation of Europe. If European countries suffer too much damage from Russia, it will be a little reluctant to help them in East Asia, whether they have the ability and willingness to help.
I wrote a series called “The King of Destruction” before, which means that the United States has lost the ability to build the world and the power to rule the world when it went downhill in the new century. But if it destroys the world, its ability is still very strong. The high-rise building built by hundreds of workers after years of hard work can be destroyed in a few days with only a few skilled blasters. The United States is undoubtedly a very skilled blaster. Over the years, he has used various means to destroy many countries, which can be said to be experienced. At the same time, he has powerful explosive equipment in his hands: the output of values for so many years and the buying of the target country’s anti system personnel who started with US dollars. Therefore, it is well deserved to place the United States as the king of destruction.
In a series of strategies against Russia, he needs to achieve the goal of not only weakening Russia’s national strength, tearing Russia and Europe to an irreconcilable state, but also firmly tying Europe to its own chariot. This is the realization of the concept of “dual track system” that I put forward earlier. Therefore, Americans will pay more attention to the emotional response to Europe.
However, this can only be regarded as the wishful thinking of the Americans. On the Ukrainian battlefield, the Americans now say that they don’t count. Although Russia’s current combat state is mainly defensive, it is a defensive strategy. For the deep strike in Ukraine, it will cut off the support capacity of Ukraine’s infrastructure for the war, so that Russia can weaken Ukraine’s combat capability and logistics support capability without paying a large personnel cost. In this stage of confrontation and defense, I believe that the Russians have made a good plan to push the battle line to a favorable geographical position. That is to say, if the Russians do not want to win Ukraine in an all-round way, they will certainly fix the front to the position they want in this winter, and then consolidate the front, so as to lay a good foundation for the coming real negotiations. At that time, there will be no force in the world that can make Russia spit out the meat in its mouth, even Russia itself cannot.
When the situation in Wudong Station is basically settled, Americans can only hope to make a breakthrough in East Asia. However, we can see that just after the election of Kazakhstan, President Tokayev of Kazakhstan, who was re elected successfully, decided to pay his first visit to Russia. This is a very clear signal. That is, the connection between Asia and Europe is forming, which the United States would never like to see.
For a time, Americans were eager to win over several Central Asian countries for their own use, which was the best starting point to cut off Asia Europe integration. Therefore, the five Central Asian countries have been in constant turbulence in recent years. This spring, Kazakhstan was almost unstable. In this election in Kazakhstan, some people even imagined that Tokayev would choose the United States after stabilizing. But obviously, how could the shrewd Tokayev have made such a foolish choice when the United States was dying. After his re-election, he preferred to visit Russia and made it clear that Kazakhstan in the future could not become a consumable of the United States.
Sino Russian Tongjiang Railway Bridge
But Kazakhstan’s choice is definitely not only because of its friendship with Russia, but also because it understands the general trend of the future world. Although Russia is trapped in Wudong Station, the development of China Russia line is very strong. In the face of China and Russia, the Americans can only play yin and can only fight proxy wars, which can not disintegrate them. Tokayev is very clear about this, because even he can pass this game.
The next step is to see what Russia can achieve this winter. As long as Eastern Europe is stable, the United States is really worried about the blow from East Asia.